Lunar landing dynamics- the variability of lunar surface models and surface considerations for the lunar logistics vehicle study
Lunar logistics vehicle variability of surface models and surface considerations
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Lunar logistics vehicle variability of surface models and surface considerations
This study focuses on the effect of Soil Hydraulic Property (SHP) selection on modeled surface fluxes following a rain storm in a semi-arid environment. SHPs are often defined based on a Soil Texture Class (STC). To examine the effectiveness of this approach, the Noah land surface model was run with each of 1306 soils in a large SHP database. Within most STCs, the outputs have a range of 350 W/m2 for latent and sensible heat fluxes, and 8K for surface temperature. The average difference between STC median values is only 100 W/m2 for latent and sensible heat. It is concluded that STC explains 5-15% of the variance in model outputs and should not be used to determine SHPs.
Accounting for small-scale spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture (theta) is required to enhance the predictive skill of land surface models. In this paper, we present the results of the development, calibration, and performance evaluation of a downscaling model based on multifractal theory using aircraft!based (800 m) theta estimates collected during the southern Great Plains experiment in 1997 (SGP97).We first demonstrate the presence of scale invariance and multifractality in theta fields of nine square domains of size 25.6 x 25.6 sq km, approximately a satellite footprint. Then, we estimate the downscaling model parameters and evaluate the model performance using a set of different calibration approaches. Results reveal that small-scale theta distributions are adequately reproduced across the entire region when coarse predictors include a dynamic component (i.e., the spatial mean soil moisture ) and a stationary contribution accounting for static features (i.e., topography, soil texture, vegetation). For wet conditions, we found similar multifractal properties of soil moisture across all domains, which we ascribe to the signature of rainfall spatial variability. For drier states, the theta fields in the northern domains are more intermittent than in southern domains, likely because of differences in the distribution of vegetation coverage. Through our analyses, we propose a regional downscaling relation for coarse, satellite-based soil moisture estimates, based on ancillary information (static and dynamic landscape features), which can be used in the study area to characterize statistical properties of small-scale theta distribution required by land surface models and data assimilation systems.
Land surface modeling provides the opportunity to investigate winter soil processes such as soil freezing and thawing over large domains. However, the variability in simulated winter soil characteristics among land surface models and forcing datasets is not well understood. In this study, a nine-member ensemble was employed to characterize the spatial and inter-annual variability of three winter soil characteristics, annual number of frozen days, annual minimum temperature and annual number of freeze-thaw cycles over North America during the water years 2010–2016. The ensemble, including three land surface model (JULES, Noah2.7.1 and Noah-MP) and three forcing datasets (ECMWF, GDAS and MERRA2), was developed through the Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP). In many regions, there was remarkably good agreement across the ensemble for the winter soil temperatures. However, the variability among the ensemble's annual number of frozen days, as quantified with standard deviation, exceeded 150 days at the northern Pacific coastline. While the differences among the ensemble members' annual minimum temperature were typically <3 °C, the differences exceeded 6 °C north of 50°N. The ensemble members generally agreed within one to three freeze-thaw cycles in mid latitude regions, Alaska, and the south and west coasts of the USA. High variability among the ensemble, more than six freeze-thaw cycles, occurred in the Great Plains, northern Pacific coastline, and along the Appalachian Mountains. Differences in winter soil temperature characteristics were more apparent among the LSMs rather than the meteorological forcing datasets. Except for maritime regions, the Noah2.7.1 members had the fewest annual number of frozen days and the least number of freeze-thaw cycles. Noah2.7.1 also had the coldest annual minimum temperatures except for ephemeral regions. Comparisons between in-situ observations and the SEUP estimates of winter soil characteristics revealed that the modeled frozen period was much longer than observed, that the modeled annual minimum temperatures were much colder than observed, and the modeled freeze-thaw cycles occurred more frequently than observed. Excluding the high latitude sites, the observed frozen period is less than two months with the minimum temperature above − 5 °C at most of the studied sites, while the ensemble members simulated, on average, a four month frozen period with − 10 °C minimum temperature. Errors in capturing snow during the accumulation period appear to impact differences in modeled versus observed soil temperature throughout the entire winter.
Bayesian surface modeling from images requires modeling both the surface and the image generation process, in order to optimize the models by comparing actual and generated images. Thus it differs greatly, both conceptually and in computational difficulty, from conventional stereo surface recovery techniques. But it offers the possibility of using any number of images, taken under quite different conditions, and by different instruments that provide independent and often complementary information, to generate a single surface model that fuses all available information. I describe an implemented system, with a brief introduction to the underlying mathematical models and the compromises made for computational efficiency. I describe successes and failures achieved on actual imagery, where we went wrong and what we did right, and how our approach could be improved. Lastly I discuss how the same approach can be extended to distinct types of instruments, to achieve true sensor fusion.
Lunar surface models, discussing surface profiles and soil properties in connection with roving lunar vehicle design
Recent developments in forward radiative transfer modeling and physical land surface modeling are converging to allow the assembly of an integrated snow/cold lands modeling framework for land surface modeling and data assimilation applications. The key elements of this framework include: a forward radiative transfer model (FRTM) for snow, a snowpack physical model, a land surface water/energy cycle model, and a data assimilation scheme. Together these form a flexible framework for self-consistent remote sensing and water/energy cycle studies. In this paper we will describe the elements and the integration plan. Each element of this framework is modular so the choice of element can be tailored to match the emphasis of a particular study. For example, within our framework, four choices of a FRTM are available to simulate the brightness temperature of snow: Two models are available to model the physical evolution of the snowpack and underlying soil, and two models are available to handle the water/energy balance at the land surface. Since the framework is modular, other models-physical or statistical--can be accommodated, too. All modules will operate within the framework of the Land Information System (LIS), a land surface modeling framework with data assimilation capabilities running on a parallel-node computing cluster at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The advantages of such an integrated modular framework built on the LIS will be described through examples-e.g., studies to analyze snow field experiment observations, and simulations of future satellite missions for snow and cold land processes.
Microwave-based retrievals of snow parameters from satellite observations have a long heritage and have so far been generated primarily by regression-based empirical "inversion" methods based on snapshots in time. Direct assimilation of microwave radiance into physical land surface models can be used to avoid errors associated with such retrieval/inversion methods, instead utilizing more straightforward forward models and temporal information. This approach has been used for years for atmospheric parameters by the operational weather forecasting community with great success. Recent developments in forward radiative transfer modeling, physical land surface modeling, and land data assimilation are converging to allow the assembly of an integrated framework for snow/cold lands modeling and radiance assimilation. The objective of the Goddard snow radiance assimilation project is to develop such a framework and explore its capabilities. The key elements of this framework include: a forward radiative transfer model (FRTM) for snow, a snowpack physical model, a land surface water/energy cycle model, and a data assimilation scheme. In fact, multiple models are available for each element enabling optimization to match the needs of a particular study. Together these form a modular and flexible framework for self-consistent, physically-based remote sensing and water/energy cycle studies. In this paper we will describe the elements and the integration plan. All modules will operate within the framework of the Land Information System (LIS), a land surface modeling framework with data assimilation capabilities running on a parallel-node computing cluster. Capabilities for assimilation of snow retrieval products are already under development for LIS. We will describe plans to add radiance-based assimilation capabilities. Plans for validation activities using field measurements will also be discussed.
Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth"s water cycle and climate variability. NASA"s Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type).
Lunar surface model design problems and altimeter radar signal characteristics
In surface scattering problems, scattering models are used to estimate the surface parameters by comparing model predictions to data. The meaning of such a procedure is examined using computer simulated scattering data from statistically known surfaces. Numerically exact scattering computations based on the moment method are conducted, and standard surface scattering models are applied to these simulated data. It is shown that such an approach usually leads to effective surface parameters as opposed to real surface parameters, except for a limited frequency region. It is also shown that if a surface scattering model is valid over all frequencies, then it is possible to recover the real surface parameters regardless of whether the surface is single scale or two scale.
Land surface (or "skin") temperature (LST) lies at the heart of the surface energy balance and is a key variable in weather and climate models. Here we assimilate LST retrievals from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) into the Noah and Catchment (CLSM) land surface models using an ensemble-based, off-line land data assimilation system. LST is described very differently in the two models. A priori scaling and dynamic bias estimation approaches are applied because satellite and model LST typically exhibit different mean values and variability. Performance is measured against 27 months of in situ measurements from the Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project at 48 stations. LST estimates from Noah and CLSM without data assimilation ("open loop") are comparable to each other and superior to that of ISCCP retrievals. For LST, RMSE values are 4.9 K (CLSM), 5.6 K (Noah), and 7.6 K (ISCCP), and anomaly correlation coefficients (R) are 0.62 (CLSM), 0.61 (Noah), and 0.52 (ISCCP). Assimilation of ISCCP retrievals provides modest yet statistically significant improvements (over open loop) of up to 0.7 K in RMSE and 0.05 in anomaly R. The skill of surface turbulent flux estimates from the assimilation integrations is essentially identical to the corresponding open loop skill. Noah assimilation estimates of ground heat flux, however, can be significantly worse than open loop estimates. Provided the assimilation system is properly adapted to each land model, the benefits from the assimilation of LST retrievals are comparable for both models.
The Surface Accuracy Measurement Sensor (SAMS) is a telescope with a focal plane photo electric detector that senses the lateral position of light source targets in its field of view. After extensive laboratory testing the engineering breadboard sensor system was installed and tested on a 30 degree segment of a 50-meter diameter, mesh surface, antenna model. Test results correlated well with the laboratory tests and indicated accuracies of approximately 0.59 arc seconds at 21 meters range. Test results are presented and recommendations given for sensor improvements.
Land Surface Model (LSM) and evaporative demand products provide advanced lead time to wildfire conditions that complement traditional fire indices and represent short-term changes that add context to overall, long-term drought conditions. Established fire indices typically use weather indicators (i.e., precipitation, temperature) and estimated dead fuel moisture to indirectly obtain land surface and sub-surface characterization. The convergence of LSM shallow and deep-layer soil moisture output and satellite-derived vegetation health combine to provide a tool for stakeholders to examine trends in the state of land surface conditions that can help assess wildfire threat. Satellite remote sensing data can constrain near-real time vegetation characteristics within the LSM and/or provide a derived stress index in order to help characterize the wildfire risk. In addition, a percentile product of soil moisture is derived from a comparison of current LSM conditions to the historical record of the LSM in order to put the current conditions in perspective relative to the season and geographic region. The 2015 season as well as the 2018 Camp Fire Complex in California were examined in terms of the changes in LSM soil moisture and vegetation states. Satellite vegetation health consistently showed decreases a month prior to wildfire initiation. Additionally, maximum changes in total column soil moisture corresponded with the greatest concentration of fire locations. While soil moisture deficits occurred in the shallow layers across northern California in 2018, significant deficits at all sub-surface levels were seen ahead of the Camp Fire event. This presentation will demonstrate the complementary value of LSM output and satellite measured vegetation health to diagnose short-term deficits in sub-surface soil moisture and the rapid decline in vegetation health which precedes large wildfire events.
The aerodynamic considerations related to model surface definition are examined with particular emphasis in areas of fabrication tolerances, model surface finish, and orifice induced pressure errors. The effect of model surface roughness texture on skin friction is also discussed. It is shown that at a given Reynolds number, any roughness will produce no skin friction penalty.
The land surface freeze-thaw (F-T) state plays a key role in the hydrological and carbon cycles and thus affects water and energy exchanges and vegetation productivity at the land surface. In this study, we developed an F-T assimilation algorithm for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling and assimilation framework. The algorithm includes a newly developed observation operator that diagnoses the landscape F-T state in the GEOS-5 Catchment land surface model. The F-T analysis is a rule-based approach that adjusts Catchment model state variables in response to binary F-T observations, while also considering forecast and observation errors. A regional observing system simulation experiment was conducted using synthetically generated F-T observations. The assimilation of perfect (error-free) F-T observations reduced the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.206 C and 0.061 C, respectively, when compared to model estimates (equivalent to a relative RMSE reduction of 6.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively). For a maximum classification error (CEmax) of 10 percent in the synthetic F-T observations, the F-T assimilation reduced the RMSE of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.178 C and 0.036 C, respectively. For CEmax=20 percent, the F-T assimilation still reduces the RMSE of model surface temperature estimates by 0.149 C but yields no improvement over the model soil temperature estimates. The F-T assimilation scheme is being developed to exploit planned operational F-T products from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.
Present-day land surface models rarely account for the influence of both black carbon and dust in the snow on the snow albedo. Snow impurities increase the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation (particularly in the visible bands), whereby they have major consequences for the evolution of snowmelt and life cycles of snowpack. A new parameterization of these snow impurities was included in the catchment-based land surface model used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Earth Observing System version 5. Validation tests against in situ observed data were performed for the winter of 2003.2004 in Sapporo, Japan, for both the new snow albedo parameterization (which explicitly accounts for snow impurities) and the preexisting baseline albedo parameterization (which does not). Validation tests reveal that daily variations of snow depth and snow surface albedo are more realistically simulated with the new parameterization. Reasonable perturbations in the assigned snow impurity concentrations, as inferred from the observational data, produce significant changes in snowpack depth and radiative flux interactions. These findings illustrate the importance of parameterizing the influence of snow impurities on the snow surface albedo for proper simulation of the life cycle of snow cover.
Two sets of programs, named Nasum 2 and Nasum 3 are presented in detail. Nasum 2 is a far field formulation and is used without including the plant thermal discharge. Nasum 3 uses horizontal stretching to provide higher resolution at thermal discharge joints; and includes far field influences such as varying tides and ambient currents far from point of discharge.