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At least 19 records

Broad features of surface ozone variations over Indian region

Surface ozone concentration at three Indian stations - New Delhi (28.6 deg N), Pune (18.5 deg N) and Thiruvananthapuram (formerly Trivandrum (8.3 deg N) - has been measured since 1973 with the help of an electrochemical continuous ozone recorder. These stations show diurnal, seasonal and annual cycles in surface ozone. Daily changes show that the minimum value occurs at sunrise and maximum in the afternoon. As regards seasonal variations, Thiruvananthapuram and Pune have a minimum value during monsoon season (June to August) while at New Delhi the minimum value occurs in January. However, New Delhi also records low ozone amount during monsoon season identical to the amounts show at Thiruvananthapuram and Pune. The annual cycles at these stations have been compared with similar measurements in the northern and southern hemispheres. The Indian measurements agree well with the annual cycles at these stations. Further, the analysis of the Indian data indicates that the major contribution in surface ozone comes from the natural sources like stratospheric-tropospheric exchange, turbulence, and mixing in the boundary layer; however, a small contribution from anthropogenic sources cannot be ruled out at Pune and probably at New Delhi, especially in winter and summer seasons.

Shende, R. R.↗

Formaldehyde Column Density as an Indicator for Elevated Surface Ozone

Efforts to observe near-surface ozone directly from space are hindered by the limited sensitivity of ozone satellite retrievals to the lower troposphere. Formaldehyde (HCHO) column observations from the NASA DISCOVER-AQ campaign showed a strong relationship with surface ozone, particularly when biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were the dominant ozone precursor due to their strong temperature-driven variability. Both tropospheric ozone and HCHO are secondarily produced through the oxidation of VOCs and in regions where the main fate of RO2 is reaction with NO, thus formaldehyde and ozone are generally co-produced. This work explores the relationship between column formaldehyde and surface ozone using data from two air quality research campaigns, the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS) in 2018 and the Korea U.S. - Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign in 2016. These campaigns included HCHO column information from airborne in-situ profiling and remote sensing and ground-based Pandora spectrometers in combination with surface ozone monitors in each region. These data are used to further explore the HCHO-ozone relationship and its potential for identifying areas of elevated ozone using remote sensing or satellite observations of column HCHO alone. These two regions offer a valuable comparison given their different VOC mixtures and the higher NOx levels in Seoul that result in ozone titration effects. This work will also address the potential for this application with future geostationary satellite observations.

Laura Margaret Judd↗

Global Changes in the Diurnal Cycle of Surface Ozone

Changing emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors drive trends in both production and loss of surface ozone, leading to surface ozone trends that differ according to the time of day. Consequently, the magnitude of the diurnal cycle in surface ozone is changing in several regions of the world. Changes in the diurnal cycle of ozone have implications for the metrics used to assess the impact of ozone on human health and vegetation, since different metrics are sensitive to different portions of the diurnal cycle. We use a high resolution model simulation to examine global changes in the magnitude of the diurnal cycle of O3 between 1980 and 2015. The simulation reproduces the negative trends in the tropospheric NO2 column over the eastern United States and Europe, and the positive trends over East Asia, seen by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It also gives a reasonable reproduction of the change in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone seen at rural sites in the eastern United States between the 1990s and 2000s. The simulation shows that the magnitude of the surface O3 diurnal cycle is increasing in regions with positive changes in NOx emissions, such as South and East Asia, and decreasing in regions with reductions in NOx emissions. It also shows changes in the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric ozone column, although these have fewer regions with statistically significant trends. These changes suggest that daily mean ozone is responding less than the mid-day ozone measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI.

Trends↗

Surface ozone variability at Kislovodsk Observatory

The results of the surface ozone observations at the Observatory 'Kislovodsk', situated in the North Caucasus at the altitude 2070 m a.s.l., are given. The observatory is in the background conditions and the variations of the surface ozone are determined by the natural dynamic and photochemical processes. The mean value of the concentration and its seasonal variations are very near to those obtained at the high-mountain stations in Alps. The daily variations have the features, which remain stable during all warm period of the year (April-October). These features, including the minimum of the surface ozone at noon, are formed by the mountain-valley circulation. The significant variations of the surface ozone are connected with the unstationary lee waves.

Elansky, Nikolay F.↗

Climate Change Penalty and Benefit on Surface Ozone: A Global Perspective Based on CMIP6 Earth System Models

This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

surface ozone↗

Forecasted Climate Penalties to Surface Ozone Across the 21st Century

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface ozone pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate climate penalty and benefits at the end of this century using version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). We archive meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the present day (2005-2014 C.E.) and end-of-the 21st century (2090-2099 C.E.). Emissions and boundary conditions used for input to GEOS-Chem are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. We apply the model to isolate the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus climate-only driven changes on surface ozone for warming limited to 1.9 W m-2 versus 8.5 W m-2 above preindustrial levels. We find a global climate penalty of 47 (16-77) thousand additional deaths due to surface ozone at the end of the century in the extreme warming scenario, but only 13 (4-21) thousand additional deaths in the extreme mitigation scenario. Similarly, the extreme warming scenario is associated with a 40 % increase in economic losses due to crop damage from climate-only changes in surface ozone, but only an 8 % increase in the extreme mitigation scenario. The simulated climate penalties to surface ozone are most severe in South and East Asia.

Climate penalties↗

Climate Change Impact on Surface Ozone Based on CMIP6 Earth System Models

It is presented an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone (O3) discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modeling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. All models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration varying spatially from -0.2 to -2 ppbv oC-1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions, which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone chemical loss with higher water vapour abudances under a warmer climate. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv oC-1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. The individual models show this robustly for south-eastern China and India as well as for regions of Africa but there are inter-model differences in areas within Europe and the United States (US) as well as in South America. The future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

climate change↗

Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C −1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C −1 , with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C −1 , implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

Zanis, Prodromos↗

Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

Ozone variables↗

Use of North American and European Air Quality Networks to Evaluate Global Chemistry-Climate Modeling of Surface Ozone

We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1 degree by 1 degree grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (approximately 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 parts per billion, and the observed seasonal range (approximately 21 parts per billion) is underestimated by about 5 parts per billion except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 parts per billion. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 percent of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 parts per billion for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.

diurnal variations↗

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

Low, Pak Sum↗

Surface Ozone Measured at GLOBE Schools in the Czech Republic: A Demonstration of the Importance of Student Contribution to the Larger Science Picture

GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) is a worldwide hands-on, primary and secondary school-based education and science program, developed to give students a chance to perform real science by making measurements, analyzing data, and participating in research in collaboration with scientists. As part of the GLOBE Surface Ozone Protocol and with the assistance of the TEREZA Association in the Czech Republic, schools in the Czech Republic have been making and reporting daily measurements of surface ozone and surface meteorological data since 2001. Using a hand-held ozone monitor developed for GLOBE, students at several Czech schools have generated multiyear data records of surface ozone from 2001 to 2005. Analysis of the data shows surface ozone levels were anomalously high during the summer of 2003 relative to other summers. These findings are consistent with measurements by the European Environment Agency that highlights the summer of 2003 as having exceptionally long-lasting and spatially extensive episodes of high surface ozone, especially during the first half of August. Further analysis of the summer s prevailing meteorology shows not only that it was one of the hottest on record, a finding also seen in the student data, but the conditions for production of ozone were ideal. Findings such as these increase student, teacher, and scientist confidence in the utility of the GLOBE data for engaging budding scientists in the collection, analysis, and eventual interpretation of the data for inquiry-based education.

Pippin, Margaret R.↗

Surface Ozone Variability and Trends over the South African Highveld from 1990 to 2007

Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant formed from reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight. In this work we examine effects of the climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NOx variability on surface ozone from 1990 to 2007 over the South African Highveld, a heavily populated region in South Africa with numerous industrial facilities. Over summer and autumn (December-May) on the Highveld, El Niño, as signified by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and warmer than normal conditions favoring ozone formation. Conversely, La Niña, or negative SST anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with cloudier and above normal rainfall conditions, hindering ozone production. We use a generalized regression model to identify any linear dependence that the Highveld ozone, measured at five air quality monitoring stations, may have on ENSO and NOx. Our results indicate that four out of the five stations exhibit a statistically significant sensitivity to ENSO at some point over the December-May period where El Niño amplifies ozone formation and La Niña reduces ozone formation. Three out of the five stations reveal statistically significant sensitivity to NOx variability, primarily in winter and spring. Accounting for ENSO and NOx effects throughout the study period of 18 years, two stations exhibit statistically significant negative ozone trends in spring, one station displays a statistically significant positive trend in August, and two stations show no statistically significant change in surface ozone.

NOx↗

Space-Based Diagnosis of Surface Ozone Sensitivity to Anthropogenic Emissions

We present a novel capability in satellite remote sensing with implications for air pollution control strategy. We show that the ratio of formaldehyde columns to tropospheric nitrogen dioxide columns is an indicator of the relative sensitivity of surface ozone to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The diagnosis from these space-based observations is highly consistent with current understanding of surface ozone chemistry based on in situ observations. The satellite-derived ratios indicate that surface ozone is more sensitive to emissions of NO(x) than of VOCs throughout most continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere during summer. Exceptions include Los Angeles and industrial areas of Germany. A seasonal transition occurs in the fall when surface ozone becomes less sensitive to NOx and more sensitive to VOCs.

Martin, Randall V.↗

Bay Breeze Influence on Surface Ozone at Edgewood, MD During July 2011

Surface ozone (O3) was analyzed to investigate the role of the bay breeze on air quality at two locations in Edgewood, Maryland (lat: 39.4deg, lon: −76.3deg) for the month of July 2011. Measurements were taken as part of the first year of NASA's "Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality" (DISCOVER-AQ) Earth Venture campaign and as part of NASA's Geostationary for Coastal and Air Pollution Events Chesapeake Bay Oceanographic campaign with DISCOVER-AQ (Geo-CAPE CBODAQ). Geo-CAPE CBODAQ complements DISCOVER-AQ by providing ship-based observations over the Chesapeake Bay. A major goal of DISCOVER-AQ is determining the relative roles of sources, photochemistry and local meteorology during air quality events in the Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. Surface characteristics, transport and vertical structures of O3 during bay breezes were identified using in-situ surface, balloon and aircraft data, along with remote sensing equipment. Localized late day peaks in O3 were observed during bay breeze days, maximizing an average of 3 h later compared to days without bay breezes. Of the 10 days of July 2011 that violated the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 8 h O3 standard of 75 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) at Edgewood, eight exhibited evidence of a bay breeze circulation. The results indicate that while bay breezes and the processes associated with them are not necessary to cause exceedances in this area, bay breezes exacerbate poor air quality that sustains into the late evening hours at Edgewood. The vertical and horizontal distributions of O3 from the coastal Edgewood area to the bay also show large gradients that are often determined by boundary layer stability. Thus, developing air quality models that can sufficiently resolve these dynamics and associated chemistry, along with more consistent monitoring of O3 and meteorology on and along the complex coastline of Chesapeake Bay must be a high priority.

bay breeze↗

Why Do Models Overestimate Surface Ozone in the Southeast United States?

Ozone pollution in the Southeast US involves complex chemistry driven by emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide radicals (NO(x) triple bond NO + NO2) and biogenic isoprene. Model estimates of surface ozone concentrations tend to be biased high in the region and this is of concern for designing effective emission control strategies to meet air quality standards. We use detailed chemical observations from the SEAC(exp 4)RS aircraft campaign in August and September 2013, interpreted with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg horizontal resolution, to better understand the factors controlling surface ozone in the Southeast US. We find that the National Emission Inventory (NEI) for NO(x) from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is too high. This finding is based on SEAC(exp 4)RS observations of NO(x) and its oxidation products, surface network observations of nitrate wet deposition fluxes, and OMI satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns. Our results indicate that NEI NO(x) emissions from mobile and industrial sources must be reduced by 30-60%, dependent on the assumption of the contribution by soil NO(x) emissions. Upper-tropospheric NO2 from lightning makes a large contribution to satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 that must be accounted for when using these data to estimate surface NO(x) emissions. We find that only half of isoprene oxidation proceeds by the high-NO(x) pathway to produce ozone; this fraction is only moderately sensitive to changes in NO(x) emissions because isoprene and NO(x) emissions are spatially segregated. GEOS-Chem with reduced NO(x) emissions provides an unbiased simulation of ozone observations from the aircraft and reproduces the observed ozone production efficiency in the boundary layer as derived from a regression of ozone and NO(x) oxidation products. However, the model is still biased high by 6 plus or minus 14 ppb relative to observed surface ozone in the Southeast US. Ozonesondes launched during midday hours show a 7 ppb ozone decrease from 1.5 km to the surface that GEOS-Chem does not capture. This bias may reflect a combination of excessive vertical mixing and net ozone production in the model boundary layer.

Oxidation↗

Springtime surface ozone fluctuations at high Arctic latitudes and their possible relationship to atmospheric bromine

At high Arctic stations such as Barrow, Alaska, springtime near-surface ozone amounts fluctuate between the highest and lowest values seen during the course of the year. Episodes when the surface ozone concentration is essentially zero last up to several days during this time of year. In the Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP-I and AGASP-II) in 1983 and 1986, it was found that ozone concentrations often showed a very steep gradient in altitude with very low values near the surface. The cold temperatures, and snow-covered ground make it unlikely that the surface itself would rapidly destroy significant amounts of ozone. The AGASP aircraft measurements that found low ozone concentrations in the lowest layers of the troposphere also found that filterable excess bromine (the amount of bromine in excess of the sea salt component) in samples collected wholly or partially beneath the temperature inversion had higher bromine concentrations than other tropospheric samples. Of the four lowest ozone minimum concentrations, three of them were associated with the highest bromine enrichments. Surface measurements of excess filterable bromine at Barrow show a strong seasonal dependence with values rising dramatically early in March, then declining in May. The concentration of organic bromine gases such as bromoform rise sharply during the winter and then begin to decline after March with winter and early spring values at least three times greater than the summer minimum.

Oltmans, Samuel J.↗

The Sensitivity of U.S. Surface Ozone Formation to NOx, and VOCs as Viewed from Space

We investigated variations in the sensitivity of surface ozone formation in summer to precursor species concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) as inferred from the ratio of tropospheric columns of formaldehyde and nitrogen dioxide from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The data indicate that ozone formation became: 1. more sensitive to NO(x) over most of the U.S, from 2005 to 2007 because of substantial decreases in NO(x) emissions primarily from stationary sources, and 2. more sensitive to NO(x) with increasing temperature, in part because emissions of highly reactive, biogenic isoprene increase with temperature, thus increasing the total VOC reactivity. Based on our interpretation of the data, current strategies implemented to reduce unhealthy levels of surface ozone should focus more on reducing NO(x) emissions, except in some downtown areas which have historically benefited from reductions in VOC emissions.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗