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Results for “surrogate model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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618 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate modeling of Monte Carlo radiation transport with convolutional neural networks for shielding optimization

Here, we present a machine learning (ML)-based surrogate model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) designed to emulate the attenuation of neutron fields as they pass through various shielding materials. This model can compute the outgoing neutron flux almost instantaneously and achieves reasonable accuracy compared to traditional Monte Carlo (MC)-based codes, which are computationally intensive. This emulator alleviates the complexity of neutron radiation transport through shielding materials by reducing the dimensionality and enables shielding optimization for a known radiation environment. This optimization process, which would have taken an unrealistic timeline due to several complex radiation transport simulations, can now be achieved in minutes, thus increasing computational capabilities in radiation shielding assessment. We demonstrate the applications of this emulator in computing effective dose rates and optimizing shielding solutions for a heavy-ion accelerator facility, such as the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, where secondary neutrons produced via beam interactions dominate the radiation environment.

accelerator shielding↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Atomistic Transitions with Transformers

Accurate knowledge of the atomistic transition pathways in materials and material surfaces is crucial for many material science problems. However, conventional simulation techniques used to find these transitions are extremely computationally intensive. Even with large-scale, accelerated material simulations, the computational cost constrains the applicable domain in practice. Machine learning models, with the potential to learn the complex emergent behaviors governing atomistic transitions as a fast surrogate model, have great promise to predict transitions with a vastly reduced computational cost. Here, we demonstrate how transformers can be trained to predict atomistic transitions in nano-clusters. We show how we evaluate physical validity of the predictions and how a multitude of additional, different microstates can be generated by slightly varying the data provided to the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forensic characterization of surrogate nuclear explosion debris: radiochemical and spectroscopic strategies for method validation

Surrogate nuclear explosion debris (SNED) has emerged as a critical platform for advancing post-detonation nuclear forensic analysis in the absence of readily accessible historic materials. SNED enables controlled investigation and validation of analytical methodologies used to interrogate the chemical, isotopic, radiological, and microstructural signatures preserved in nuclear explosion debris. This review presents an integrated assessment of destructive and non-destructive analytical techniques commonly employed within decision-driven nuclear forensic workflows. Each technique is discussed individually while highlighting how it contributes to different stages of post-detonation analysis. Core methods – including gamma and alpha spectrometry, ICP-MS, TIMS, SIMS, SEM-EDS, XRF, LIBS, vibrational spectroscopy, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy – are critically evaluated with respect to forensic maturity, information content, and matrix limitations. Emphasis is placed on the role of SNED in benchmarking multi-modal workflows and identifying gaps in reproducing heterogeneity, fractionation, and radiation-driven evolution relevant to forensic attribution.

X-ray spectroscopic methods↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design↗
DOE OSTI2026

Insights into mixing of non-isothermal multi-polymer melts for complex plastics recycling

Catalytic recycling or upcycling of plastics is often limited not by catalyst performance, but by transport, arising from highly viscous, non-Newtonian polymer melts. In this work, we develop a reactor-scale framework that integrates rheological measurements, constitutive modeling, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and experiments to quantify mixing, heat transfer, and dispersion in surrogate hydrocarbon melts representing mixed plastics systems. Temperature- and shear rate-dependent viscosity of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is measured to create two surrogate polymers (PLD and PHD) that capture the dominant shear-thinning flow behavior while neglecting strong elastic effects, enabling tractable simulation of non-isothermal, polymer-melt mixing using a Carreau-Arrhenius generalized Newtonian framework. Three-dimensional CFD simulations are employed to evaluate impeller performance in PLD using mixing time, cavern volume, thermal uniformity, and interfacial area for regimes in which viscoelastic effects are not dominant. We show that magnetic stir bars commonly used in lab-scale studies produce large thermal gradients (~60 °C) and poor mixing, even under idealized power delivery and polymer flow conditions. In contrast, close-clearance anchor impellers achieve near-isothermal operation, reduce mixing times by up to 5×, and provide >90% active circulation volume. We further demonstrate that, at low pseudo-Deborah number (De*), motor power requirements can be predicted directly from shear rate-dependent rheology using the Carreau-Arrhenius framework, enabling rational selection of operating conditions. Extension to surrogate immiscible multi-polymer systems based on PLD and PHD shows that interfacial area is highly sensitive to operating conditions and impeller design, with coaxial anchor-turbine configurations enhancing dispersion by up to 4 × .

Close-clearance impellers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi‐Objective Optimization for Rapid Identification of Novel Compound Metals for Interconnect Applications

Abstract Interconnect materials play the critical role of routing energy and information in integrated circuits. However, established bulk conductors, such as copper, perform poorly when scaled down beyond 10 nm, limiting the scalability of logic devices. Here, a multi‐objective search is developed, combined with first‐principles calculations, to rapidly screen over 15,000 materials and discover new interconnect candidates. This approach simultaneously optimizes the bulk electronic conductivity, surface scattering time, and chemical stability using physically motivated surrogate properties accessible from materials databases. Promising local interconnects are identified that have the potential to outperform ruthenium, the current state‐of‐the‐art post‐Cu material, and also semi‐global interconnects with potentially large skin depths at the GHz operation frequency. The approach is validated on one of the identified candidates, CoPt, using both ab initio and experimental transport studies, showcasing its potential to supplant Ru and Cu for future local interconnects.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival Study: Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) (Task Final Report)

The Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) task was one of several tasks for the Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam (HAHD) Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival study. For this task, a juvenile fish passage and survival study was conducted at HAHD from March 10, 2024 through June 27, 2024 for arrays in the HAHD Reservoir and Green River, and through July 9, 2024 for the arrays in the Duwamish River. Fish releases occurred over four times from March through May. Active tag (acoustic telemetry) technology was used to provide biological baseline information for the passage and survival of juvenile Puget Sound (PS) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Results will be used by biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers to inform the engineering design of the new fish passage facility (FPF) at HAHD. However, hatchery sub-yearling PS Chinook salmon of the appropriate size for tag implantation during the study period (> 95 mm in fork length, Geist et al. 2018) were unavailable. Therefore, yearling Coho salmon (O. kisutch) were used as a surrogate species for this acoustic telemetry study.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stoichiometric effects on grain growth in zirconium carbide coatings for high-temperature nuclear fuel

Interest in coated particle fuel for space nuclear propulsion (SNP) has expanded in recent years due to successful demonstrations of the resiliency of the coatings to extreme environments. For SNP applications, the coating layer for the particle design needs to be able to withstand exposure to high temperature hydrogen during operating conditions. ZrC has been proposed as a protective layer, however, it is important to understand the high temperature behavior to ensure adequate protection to this fuel. In this study, surrogate ZrC coated particles were heat treated at 1900 °C up to 300 min, to examine how the microstructure evolves when exposed to high temperature. Scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) were conducted to determine grain size and grain boundary character and orientation to determine the degree of change in the ZrC layer post heat treatment. Raman spectroscopy provided insight to understand how the as-fabricated stoichiometry of each sample contributed to the differences in grain growth behavior. Despite the as-fabricated samples showing a similar initial grain size and grain boundary character, the samples with a higher amount of excess carbon exhibited smaller grain areas and slower growth rates when exposed to 1900 °C. In conclusion, this investigation details the as-fabricated microstructure of the ZrC layer, specifically grain size, evolved under high temperature as this can impact the performance of the fuel under operating conditions.

EBSD↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Modeling Ni-Cd performance. Planned alterations to the Goddard battery model

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) currently has a preliminary computer model to simulate a Nickel Cadmium (Ni-Cd) performance. The basic methodology of the model was described in the paper entitled Fundamental Algorithms of the Goddard Battery Model. At present, the model is undergoing alterations to increase its efficiency, accuracy, and generality. A review of the present battery model is given, and the planned charges of the model are described.

Jagielski, J. M.↗