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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

High-resolution hourly surrogate modeling framework for physics-based large-scale building stock modeling

Surrogate modeling can play a key role in reducing high computational burdens for large-scale physics-based modeling and uncertainty quantification. With the rapid development of large-scale building stock energy modeling, surrogate modeling has also begun to be widely applied in this field; however, most existing surrogate models lack hourly time resolution for regional-scale modeling, which is essential for understanding building demand profiles and grid impacts. Further, there is generally a lack of necessary data and feature engineering frameworks specific to building modeling for efficiently managing large datasets and complex computations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a modeling framework for large-scale (city-/region-scale), high-resolution, high-fidelity surrogate building stock energy models. Our developed framework consists of six modules: (1) building stock energy modeling (ComStock TM and ResStock TM ), (2) data engineering for large simulation data, (3) high performance computing workflow, (4) feature engineering, (5) machine learning model development, and (6) model performance evaluation. Two case studies apply the developed framework in both residential and commercial building stock analysis to demonstrate its computational efficiency and surrogate modeling accuracies. Results show that surrogate models, when efficiently trained using the HPC workflow module, reach a high level of modeling accuracy for two case studies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning

This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.

Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hydropower Optimization Using Artificial Neural Network Surrogate Models of a High-Fidelity Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Model

Hydropower operations optimization subject to environmental constraints is limited by challenges associated with dimensionality and spatial and temporal resolution. The need for high-fidelity hydrodynamic and water quality models within optimization schemes is driven by improved computational capabilities, increased requirements to meet specific points of compliance with greater resolution, and the need to optimize operations of not just single reservoirs but systems of reservoirs. This study describes an important advancement for computing hourly power generation schemes for a hydropower reservoir using high-fidelity models, surrogate modeling techniques, and optimization methods. The predictive power of the high-fidelity hydrodynamic and water quality model CE-QUAL-W2 is successfully emulated by an artificial neural network, then integrated into a genetic algorithm optimization approach to maximize hydropower generation subject to constraints on dam operations and water quality. This methodology is applied to a multipurpose reservoir near Nashville, Tennessee, USA. The model successfully reproduced high-fidelity reservoir information while enabling 6.8% and 6.6% increases in hydropower production value relative to actual operations for dissolved oxygen (DO) limits of 5 and 6 mg/L, respectively, while witnessing an expected decrease in power generation at more restrictive DO constraints. Exploration of simultaneous temperature and DO constraints revealed capability to address multiple water quality constraints at specified locations. Here, the reduced computational requirements of the new modeling approach demonstrated an ability to provide decision support for reservoir operations scheduling while maintaining high-fidelity hydrodynamic and water quality information as part of the optimization decision support routines.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

One System, Many Models: Designing a Surrogate Model for Sulfur Thermal Energy Storage: Preprint

Industrial process heating (IPH) relies primarily on thermal energy generated by fossil fuel combustion to produce, treat, and alter manufactured goods. Thermal energy storage (TES) helps reduce the carbon footprint of IPH systems by facilitating the utilization of renewable and waste heat sources. A promising new TES technology uses elemental sulfur as the heat-storage medium. The design of sulfur TES systems can be evaluated with the aid of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). However, the computational cost of such CFD efforts is prohibitive to comprehensive optimizations over design parameters. To reduce this computational cost, machine learning (ML) models can be developed to act as surrogates for CFD. In this paper, we describe the process of building and evaluating surrogate ML models for facilitating optimization of sulfur TES systems for IPH. To enforce the thermodynamic relationship between the two modeled quantities, we develop a hybrid model for sulfur temperature using both direct predictions of temperature and calculations of temperature from predictions of the heat transfer coefficient. The hybrid model enforces this constraint at the expense of the slightly reduced accuracy compared to two disjoint models. The overall high accuracy observed in our model evaluation demonstrates the usefulness of such surrogate modeling for studying TES systems. This work contributes to the field of TES surrogate modeling by offering a novel accurate hybrid approach to predicting simultaneously the heat transfer coefficient and temperature of the heat storage medium.

computational fluid dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model for third-integer resonance extraction at the Fermilab Delivery Ring

We present an ongoing work in which a surrogate model is being developed to reproduce the response dynamics of the third-integer resonant extraction process in the Delivery Ring (DR) at Fermilab. This is in pursuit of smoothly extracting circulating beam to the Mu2e Experiment’s production target, whereby the goal is to extract a uniform slice of the circulating 1e12 protons in the DR over 25,000 turns (43 ms). The DR contains 3 harmonic sextupoles that excite a third-integer resonance and three fast, tune-ramping quadrupole magnets that drive the horizontal tune towards the 29/3 resonance. In our initial work, the surrogate model trains on a semi-analytical simulation provided in the same format as live data. Using Reinforcement Learning (and other potential ML methods), the trained surrogate acts as the “environment” in which a simple ML control agent could learn to dynamically adjust the quadrupole ramp at 430 break points within the 43 microsecond spill window. The controller will be hosted on a dedicated Arria 10 FPGA. In this work, we report the accuracy and fidelity of the surrogate model in comparison to the response dynamics of the physics simulator.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation Source Localization Using Surrogate Models Constructed from 3-D Monte Carlo Transport Physics Simulations

Recent research has focused on the development of surrogate models for radiation source localization in a simulated urban domain. We employ the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code to provide high- delity simulations of radiation transport within an urban domain. The model is constructed to employ a source location (x, y, z) as input and return the estimated count rate for a set of speci ed detector locations. Because MCNP simulations are computationally expensive, we develop e cient and accurate surrogate models of the detector responses. We construct surrogate models using Gaussian processes (GP) and neural networks (NN) that we train and verify using the MCNP simulations. The trained surrogate models provide an e cient framework for Bayesian inference and experimental design. We employ Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to infer the location and intensity of an unknown source. The DRAM results yield a posterior probability distribution for the source's location conditioned on the observed detector count rates. The posterior distribution exhibits regions of high and low probability within the simulated environment identifying potential source locations. In this manner, we can quantify the source location to within at least one of these regions of high probability in the considered cases. Employing these methods, we are able to reduce the space of potential source locations by at least 60%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian model updating with finite element vs surrogate models: Application to a miter gate structural system

Bayesian finite element (FE) model updating using direct model evaluations of large-scale high-fidelity FE models is extremely computationally expensive. Surrogate models can be used as fast emulators of FE models to accelerate the model calibration process. The physics/mechanics-based FE models are still the underpinning behind the surrogate models. Here, this paper evaluates the loss in accuracy and the gain in computational time while performing Bayesian model updating by using surrogate model evaluations compared to using direct FE model evaluations. This evaluation is crucial before entirely relying on surrogate models in model updating for structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage prognosis (DP) purposes. This paper also demonstrates Bayesian updating and surrogate model construction of large-scale high-fidelity FE models of infrastructure systems. In this regard, the miter gate structural system is considered as the testbed structure. Three predominant damage modes (loss of contact between gate and wall, loss of thickness due to corrosion, and loss of tension in the diagonal rods) are considered for model updating purposes. Bayesian model updating is performed using direct FE evaluations by leveraging parallel computing. Two types of surrogates, namely polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) and Gaussian process regression (GPR), are developed for the miter gate. Model updating is performed again using the trained surrogate models, and the updating results are compared with their counterparts obtained using the direct FE evaluation results. The posterior distribution of the FE model parameters obtained using the trained surrogates are sufficiently accurate with respect to the posterior obtained utilizing the direct FE evaluations. In addition, an approximate 4-fold decrease in the computational time was observed when using surrogate model evaluations instead of direct FE evaluations for model updating.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative diffusion model surrogates for mechanistic agent-based biological models

Mechanistic, multicellular, agent-based models are commonly used to investigate tissue, organ, and organism-scale biology at single-cell resolution. The Cellular-Potts Model (CPM) is a powerful and popular framework for developing and interrogating these models. CPMs become computationally expensive at large space- and time- scales making application and investigation of developed models difficult. Surrogate models may allow for the accelerated evaluation of CPMs of complex biological systems. However, the stochastic nature of these models means each set of parameters may give rise to different model configurations, complicating surrogate model development. In this work, we leverage denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to train a generative AI surrogate of a CPM used to investigate in vitro vasculogenesis. We describe the use of an image classifier to learn the characteristics that define unique areas of a 2-dimensional parameter space. We then apply this classifier to aid in surrogate model selection and verification. Our CPM model surrogate generates model configurations 20,000 timesteps ahead of a reference configuration and demonstrates approximately a 22x reduction in computational time as compared to native code execution. Our work represents a step towards the implementation of DDPMs to develop digital twins of stochastic biological systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Turbulence-parameter estimation for current-energy converters using surrogate model optimization

Surrogate models maximize information utility by building predictive models in place of computational or experimentally expensive model runs. Marine hydrokinetic current energy converters require large-domain simulations to estimate array efficiencies and environmental impacts. Meso-scale models typically represent turbines as actuator discs that act as momentum sinks and sources of turbulence and its dissipation. An OpenFOAM model was developed where actuator disc k-ε turbulence was characterized using an approach developed for flows through vegetative canopies. Turbine-wake data from laboratory flume experiments collected at two influent turbulence intensities were used to calibrate parameters in the turbulence-source terms in the k-ε equations. Additionally, parameter influences on longitudinal wake profiles were estimated using Gaussian process regression with subsequent optimization minimizing the objective function within 3.1% of those obtained using the full model representation, but for 74% of the computational cost (far fewer model runs). This framework facilitates more efficient parameterization of the turbulence-source equations using turbine-wake data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2019

Efficient surrogate modeling methods for large-scale Earth system models based on machine-learning techniques

Abstract. Improving predictive understanding of Earth system variability and change requires data–model integration. Efficient data–model integration for complex models requires surrogate modeling to reduce model evaluation time. However, building a surrogate of a large-scale Earth system model (ESM) with many output variables is computationally intensive because it involves a large number of expensive ESM simulations. In this effort, we propose an efficient surrogate method capable of using a few ESM runs to build an accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system of model outputs over large spatial and temporal domains. We first use singular value decomposition to reduce the output dimensions and then use Bayesian optimization techniques to generate an accurate neural network surrogate model based on limited ESM simulation samples. Our machine-learning-based surrogate methods can build and evaluate a large surrogate system of many variables quickly. Thus, whenever the quantities of interest change, such as a different objective function, a new site, and a longer simulation time, we can simply extract the information of interest from the surrogate system without rebuilding new surrogates, which significantly reduces computational efforts. We apply the proposed method to a regional ecosystem model to approximate the relationship between eight model parameters and 42 660 carbon flux outputs. Results indicate that using only 20 model simulations, we can build an accurate surrogate system of the 42 660 variables, wherein the consistency between the surrogate prediction and actual model simulation is 0.93 and the mean squared error is 0.02. This highly accurate and fast-to-evaluate surrogate system will greatly enhance the computational efficiency of data–model integration to improve predictions and advance our understanding of the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Decay Heat Surrogate Modeling for High Temperature Reactors

The accuracy of the safety analysis of Nuclear Power Plants, in general, and the High Temperature Reactors, in particular, is driven by several factors, among which the accuracy of decay heat curves or calculation. This paper is aimed to present a methodology based on the usage of the RAVEN code for the construction of a multi-dimensional decay heat curve for High Temperature Reactors, via calculations performed by ORIGEN. The main goal of this activity has been the identification of a model able to surrogate the phenomenology of the decay heat after shutdown, satisfying the following requirements: 1) Reasonable prediction accuracy till 1 month after the shutdown, 2) Ability to capture the main deviation effects determined by field conditions (e.g. burn-up, fuel temperature, fissile enrichment, etc.), 3) As easy as possible formalism in order to possibly allow the implementation of the curve into system codes (e.g. RELAP5-3D) inputs exploiting, for example, control variable capabilities. Three surrogate models (also known as decay heat curves in the safety analysis nomenclature) have been identified: 1) Spline Exponential surrogate model, 2) A Support Vector Regression model and, 3) A Dynamic Mode Decomposition model. The aim of this paper is to present the mathematical background of the identified surrogate models and their performance in the prediction of decay heat evolution for High Temperature Reactors. A preliminary comparison of the surrogate model performances is finally reported.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum surrogate models for uncertainty quantification

Surrogate models are a critical ingredient to computation-based design and validation of many DOE mission-relevant physical systems. When first-principles computation of properties of a physical systems becomes pro hibitive, surrogate models are the only path towards achieving tasks such as uncertainty quantification (UQ), exploration of design space, and validation of design choices. In this project we have developed and demonstrated a new surro gate modeling paradigm for complex models that is data-driven, non-intrusive, and has the potential to be versatile and equipped with performance guaran tees. This combination of features is absent in existing surrogate modeling tools. The framework we have developed in this project exploits a quantum-classical correspondence to establish a quantum system that mimics the dynamics of the classical Hamiltonian system from which data in the form of temporal snapshots is provided. Since quantum dynamics propagates distributions over observables, the framework is naturally suited to propagation of epistemic uncertainties in the form of distributions over initial state and parametric uncertainties. In this project, we take the first step in establishing this novel framework by deriving a quantization and de-quantization procedure, demonstrating the accuracy of the quantum surrogate models these define using two model systems, and defining the next steps in maturing the framework towards a tool applicable to Sandia mission-relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗