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Lessons Learned for Study of Uncertainty Quantification in Cyber-Physical System Emulation
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Challenges in Firmware Re-Hosting, Emulation, and Analysis
System emulation and firmware re-hosting have become popular techniques to answer various security and performance related questions, such as determining whether a firmware contain security vulnerabilities or meet timing requirements when run on a specific hardware platform. While this motivation for emulation and binary analysis has previously been explored and reported, starting to either work or research in the field is difficult. To this end, we provide a comprehensive guide for the practitioner or system emulation researcher. Here, we layout common challenges faced during firmware re-hosting, explaining successive steps and surveying common tools used to overcome these challenges. We provide classification techniques on five different axes, including emulator methods, system type, fidelity, emulator purpose, and control. These classifications and comparison criteria enable the practitioner to determine the appropriate tool for emulation. We use our classifications to categorize popular works in the field and present 28 common challenges faced when creating, emulating, and analyzing a system from obtaining firmwares to post emulation analysis.
Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output
Emulation through pattern scaling is a well-established method of rapidly producing climate fields (like temperature or precipitation) from existing Earth System Model (ESM) output that, while inaccurate, is often useful for a variety of downstream purposes. Conducting pattern scaling has historically been a laborious process, in large part due to the increasing volume of ESM output data that has often required downloading and storing locally to train on. Here we describe the Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS) dataset, a repository of trained annual and monthly patterns from CMIP6 outputs. This manuscript describes and validates these updated patterns so that users can save effort calculating and reporting error statistics in manuscripts focused on the use of patterns. The trained patterns are available as NetCDF files on Zenodo for ease of use in the impact community, and are reproducible with the code provided via GitHub in both Jupyter notebook and Python script formats. Because all training data for the PEEPS data set is cloud-based, users do not need to download and house the ESM output data to reproduce the patterns in the zenodo archive, should that be more efficient. Validating the PEEPS data set on the CMIP6 archive for annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, and near-surface relative humidity, pattern scaling performs well over a variety of future scenarios except for regions in which there are strong, potentially nonlinear climate feedbacks. Although pattern scaling is normally conducted on annual mean ESM output data, it works equally well on monthly mean ESM output data. We identify several downstream applications of the PEEPS data set, including impacts assessment and evaluating certain types of Earth system uncertainties.
Reconfigurable Real-Time Power Grid Emulator for Systems With High Penetration of Renewables
Novel power system control and new utility devices need to be tested before their actual deployment to the power grid. To assist with such a testing need, real-time digital emulators such as RTDS and Opal-RT can be used to connect to the physical world and form a hardware in the loop (HIL) emulation. However, due to the limitations of today's computational resources, the accuracy and fidelity suffer from different levels of model reductions in purely digital simulations. CURENT has developed a reconfigurable electric grid hardware testbed (HTB) to overcome the limitations of digital emulators. The HTB has been used to develop measurement, control, modeling, and actuation techniques for a national grid with a high penetration of renewables. The power electronic-based system includes emulators for synchronous generators; photovoltaics with grid-interfacing inverter; wind turbines; induction motor loads, ZIP loads, power electronic loads; batteries; ac and dc transmission lines; short circuit faults and grid relay protection; and a multiterminal HVDC overlay including power electronics interfaces. The system contains real elements of power flow, measurement, communication, protection, and control that mimic what would be seen in an actual electric grid. This paper presents an overview of the HTB and several scenarios that have been run to determine control and actions needed for the future power grid.
A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing
Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.
PRISTINE: An Emulation Platform for PCB-Level Hardware Trojans
Printed circuit Boards (PCBs) are becoming increasingly vulnerable to malicious design alteration, also known as Trojan attacks, due to a distributed business model that often involves various untrusted parties. Such attacks can be mounted at various stages in the PCB life cycle. The relative ease of alteration of PCB hardware even after fabrication (due to physical access to surface-mounted critical components and traces) makes them attractive for an adversary to manipulate their functional/physical behavior for malicious intent. There is a growing need to explore viable Trojan attacks in a PCB, analyze their functional and physical characteristics (e.g., impact on power or delay), and study the effectiveness of countermeasures against these attacks. While simulation-based approaches for PCB Trojan insertion are effective at creating a large population of possible Trojans, they fail to provide functional feasibility analysis with a realistic workload for a trigger circuit. Also, they cannot estimate a Trojan’s side-channel footprint due to the unavailability of physical models of diverse PCB components. To address these deficiencies, in this paper, we present PRISTINE, a PCB-level emulation system for any integrity or physical tampering issues, specifically, hardware Trojan insertion. The need for building such an emulation platform to resolve PCB trust issues in the supply chain is also surveyed and discussed. Both custom Hardware Hacking (HaHa) boards and multiple commercial PCBs are then used to test the ability of the proposed system to emulate various hardware Trojans specially designed to exploit board-specific hardware characteristics. Experimental results on emulated board-level Trojans show that a wide range of Trojans can be successfully activated, thus enabling the expected payload effects on both types of boards to be studied and quantified. The resulting data are further analyzed to create PCB-level Trojan benchmarks. In particular, a comparative evaluation of the experimental results is used to propose a risk level metric that quantifies the probability of detection and degree of payload impact of each Trojan on a given commercial PCB.
DSS-SimPy-RL (Open-DSS and SimPy based Cyber-Physical RL environment) [SWR-23-29]
Recently, numerous data-driven approaches to control an electric grid using machine learning techniques have been investigated. With the advancement of reinforcement learning (RL) based techniques, gradually the conventional optimization based solvers are being replaced with RL approach where there is uncertainty in the environment such as renewable generation or cyber system emulation. However, to train an agent efficiently, it requires numerous interactions with an environment to learn the best policies. There are numerous RL environments for the power systems based on some well-known simulators, similarly there are environment for communication domains. While majority of the cyber emulators are based in an UNIX environment, the power simulators are based in the Windows-based operating system, the generation of cyber-physical mixed domain RL environment has been challenging. Existing co-simulation methods are efficient but resource and time intensive to generate large scale data set for training RL agents. Hence, this software focuses on development and validation of a mixed domain RL environment using Open DSS for the physical side and leverages a discrete event simulator python package, SimPy, for cyber-side emulation which is Operating Systems agnostic. Further utilizing this software co-simulation and training RL agents for re-routing based resilient control for network reconfiguration and volt-var control in power distribution feeder are performed.
High-bandwidth Dynamic Load Emulation of Mechanical Systems using Electric Drives
Machine drives are versatile systems that can be programmed to emulate a variety of mechanical loads. In this paper, we walk through the modeling and control framework of a shaft-coupled dual-motor drive system that is programmed to emulate a fictitious mechanical system. We quantitatively evaluate the control performance of such a system and derive a theoretical limit that explains its inaccuracy at high operating frequencies. To overcome this problem, we propose an alternate control structure that achieves the same control objective at high frequencies as well. After suitable adjustments are made to the controller, we validate its performance using simulation results.
From Machine Learning to Machine Reasoning: A Model-based Approach to Analyze Equipment Reliability Data
In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data which can be used to assess and monitor component health and performance. Assessing component health from such data can be performed with a large variety of methods. While the analysis of numeric data can be performed with several methods, the extraction of information from textual data remains a challenge. Currently employed natural language processing (NLP) methods do not really provide quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. In addition, the integration of numeric and textual data to identify possible causal relationships between data elements is still an unresolved challenge. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual (e.g., incident or maintenance reports) and numeric data that relies on model based system engineer (MBSE) models. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence while semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis uses MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. Similarly, numeric data is directly linked to elements of the MBSE models in order to map which functions are being monitored.
A Model Based Approach to Extract Health Information from Textual Data
In current nuclear power plants (NPPs) a large amount of condition-based data is being generated and stored to assess and monitor component health and performance. The format of this data can be either numeric (e.g., pump vibration data) or textual (e.g., condition report which assess component health). While assessing component health from numeric data can be performed with a large variety of methods, the extraction of information from textual data still remains a challenge. Natural language processing (NLP) methods are starting to be deployed in current NPPs mainly to filter out incident reports (IRs) that are not safety related by employing supervised machine learning methods. However, these methods do not really provide the quantitative information that might be contained in IRs. This paper presents an approach to extract information from textual data (e.g., from IRs, maintenance reports) that is based on NLP data analytics methods coupled with model-based system engineer (MBSE) models. NLP methods are employed to perform syntactic and semantic analyses. Syntactic analysis analyzes the grammatical structure of a sentence; such analysis includes: part of speech (POS) tagging (i.e., identification of grammatic elements of each string - e.g., nouns, verbs), named entity recognition (i.e., identification of text entities - e.g., names, dates, events), and relation extraction (e.g., coreference resolution). On the other hand, semantic analysis is designed to analyze the logic structure of a sentence. Through a specific set of rules, our methods can identify whether a sentence contains health information of a component (e.g., degraded performance, anomaly behavior) or the causal relationship between two events (i.e., a cause-effect pair). An innovative element of our approach is that semantic analysis relies on MBSE models to identify links between textual elements. MBSE are diagrams designed to represent system and component dependencies (from both a form and functional point of view). In our approach, MBSE models emulate system engineer knowledge about component/system architecture. This paper presents in detail how the integration of NLP methods and MBSE models is performed. Few analysis examples focusing on centrifugal pumps are presented.
IoT Firmware Emulation and Its Security Application in Fuzzing: A Critical Revisit
As IoT devices with microcontroller (MCU)-based firmware become more common in our lives, memory corruption vulnerabilities in their firmware are increasingly targeted by adversaries. Fuzzing is a powerful method for detecting these vulnerabilities, but it poses unique challenges when applied to IoT devices. Direct fuzzing on these devices is inefficient, and recent efforts have shifted towards creating emulation environments for dynamic firmware testing. However, unlike traditional software, firmware interactions with peripherals that are significantly more diverse presents new challenges for achieving scalable full-system emulation and effective fuzzing. This paper reviews 27 state-of-the-art works in MCU-based firmware emulation and its applications in fuzzing. Instead of classifying existing techniques based on their capabilities and features, we first identify the fundamental challenges faced by firmware emulation and fuzzing. We then revisit recent studies, organizing them according to the specific challenges they address, and discussing how each specific challenge is addressed. We compare the emulation fidelity and bug detection capabilities of various techniques to clearly demonstrate their strengths and weaknesses, aiding users in selecting or combining tools to meet their needs. Finally, we highlight the remaining technical gaps and point out important future research directions in firmware emulation and fuzzing.
Digital Analytics, Causal Knowledge Acquisition and Reasoning for Technical Language Processing
Complex engineering systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) generate and collect large amounts of equipment reliability (ER) data elements that contain information on the status of components, assets, and systems. Some of this information is textual in form and can be found in documents such as incident reports (IRs) and work orders (WOs). Analyses of textual data in current NPPs-using natural language processing (NLP) methods-have been expanded over the last decade, and it is only recently that the true potential of such analyses has emerged. So far, applications of NLP methods have mostly been limited to classification and prediction, the goal being to identify the nature of the textual element (e.g., safety or non-safety related). Here, we target a more complex problem: automatically extracting knowledge from a textual element in order to assist system engineers in conducting system health assessments. Knowledge extraction is a very broad concept, and its definition may vary depending on the application context. Our methods are a blend of both rule-based and machine learning (ML) algorithms. For our purposes, knowledge extraction means identifying the systems or assets mentioned in a given textual element, as well as the type of event described (e.g., component failure or maintenance activity). In addition, we want to capture details such as measured quantities and the temporal/cause-effect relations between events. In this tool, we also demonstrate how textual data elements are preprocessed in order to handle typos, acronyms, and abbreviations. One main feature of these methods is that they are not based solely on data, but are in fact model-based. In other words, they also rely on MBSE models that are designed to capture-from a functional point of view-the architecture of the systems/assets under consideration. The main purpose of such models is to digitally emulate system engineers' knowledge of system and asset architecture and to identify dependencies among systems, assets, and components. Provided these models, analyses of textual and numeric ER data can be performed by first identifying the OPM model elements to which the ER data elements are referring. The relationships between ER data elements are then identified by checking for any temporal or logical dependencies.
On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling
Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.
Optimal Operation of PV Sources in DC Grids for Improving Technical, Economical, and Environmental Conditions by Using Vortex Search Algorithm and a Matrix Hourly Power Flow
This document presents a master–slave methodology for solving the problem of optimal operation of photovoltaic (PV) distributed generators (DGs) in direct current (DC) networks. This problem was modeled using a nonlinear programming model (NLP) that considers the minimization of three different objective functions in a daily operation of the system. The first one corresponds to the minimization of the total operational cost of the system, including the energy purchasing cost to the conventional generators and maintenance costs of the PV sources; the second objective function corresponds to the reduction of the energy losses associated with the transport of energy in the network, and the third objective function is related to the minimization of the total emissions of CO2 by the conventional generators installed on the DC grid. The minimization of these objective functions is achieved by using a master–slave optimization approach through the application of the Vortex Search algorithm combined with a matrix hourly power flow. To evaluate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach, two test scenarios were used, which correspond to a grid-connected and a standalone network located in two different regions of Colombia. The grid-connected system emulates the behavior of the solar resource and power demand of the city of Medellín-Antioquia, and the standalone network corresponds to an adaptation of the generation and demand curves for the municipality of Capurganá-Choco. A numerical comparison was performed with four optimization methodologies reported in the literature: particle swarm optimization, multiverse optimizer, crow search algorithm, and salp swarm algorithm. The results obtained demonstrate that the proposed optimization approach achieved excellent solutions in terms of response quality, repeatability, and processing times.
How do magnetized HED flows transition to collimated plasma jets? (Final Report)
We present results from a pulsed-power experiment designed to generate accretion-like flows in the laboratory that may be used to study the dynamics of astrophysical accretion-driven outflows. To emulate systems like Young Stellar Object (YSO) outflows, we create radially converging plasma flows in a short disk that transition into much longer bipolar outflows. Our experiment uses a ~1 MA pulsed-power driver to generate plasma from an array of thin aluminum wires mounted to a 3D-printed current path that controls the angular momentum and magnetic field topology. In this paper, we show that experimental data scale favorably to observed properties of YSO jets. This set of experiments tests the simplest version of our possible plasma dynamics, where outflows are generated without rotation or axial magnetic field present. The temperature, velocity and density of the disk and outflows are characterized using interferometry, gated optical and ultraviolet imaging, and Thomson scattering diagnostics. We discuss the Reynolds number, magnetic Reynolds number and Mach numbers calculated in three different stages of the experiment, and compare our results to 3D numerical simulations in the PERSEUS magnetohydrodynamics code. This report is a summary of the work done by the graduate students who were supported by the project.
Sensor assemblies and methods for emulating interaction of entities within water systems
Methods for emulating interaction of entities within water systems are provided. The methods can include introducing a sensor assembly into a water system. The sensor assembly can include: a circuit board supporting processing circuitry components on either or both of opposing component support surfaces of the circuit board; a housing about the circuit board and the components, the housing being circular about the circuit board in at least one cross section; and wherein the support surfaces of the circuit board are substantially parallel with the plane of the housing in the one cross section.