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DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of the tangent linear and adjoint models of the global online chemical transport model MPAS-CO 2 v7.3

We describe the development of the tangent linear (TL) and adjoint models of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-CO 2 transport model, which is a global online chemical transport model developed upon the non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A). The primary goal is to make the model system a valuable research tool for investigating atmospheric carbon transport and inverse modeling. First, we develop the TL code, encompassing all CO 2 transport processes within the MPAS-CO 2 forward model. Then, we construct the adjoint model using a combined strategy involving re-calculation and storage of the essential meteorological variables needed for CO 2 transport. This strategy allows the adjoint model to undertake a long-period integration with moderate memory demands. To ensure accuracy, the TL and adjoint models undergo vigorous verifications through a series of standard tests. The adjoint model, through backward-in-time integration, calculates the sensitivity of atmospheric CO 2 observations to surface CO 2 fluxes and the initial atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratio. To demonstrate the utility of the newly developed adjoint model, we conduct simulations for two types of atmospheric CO 2 observations, namely the tower-based in situ CO 2 mixing ratio and satellite-derived column-averaged CO 2 mixing ratio (X CO 2 ). A comparison between the sensitivity to surface flux calculated by the MPAS-CO 2 adjoint model with its counterpart from CarbonTracker–Lagrange (CT-L) reveals a spatial agreement but notable magnitude differences. These differences, particularly evident for X CO 2 , might be attributed to the two model systems' differences in the simulation configuration, spatial resolution, and treatment of vertical mixing processes. Moreover, this comparison highlights the substantial loss of information in the atmospheric CO 2 observations due to CT-L's spatial domain limitation. Furthermore, the adjoint sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the sensitivities to both surface flux and initial CO 2 conditions spread out throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere within a month. MPAS-CO 2 forward, TL, and adjoint models stand out for their calculation efficiency and variable-resolution capability, making them competitive in computational cost. In conclusion, the successful development of the MPAS-CO 2 TL and adjoint models, and their integration into the MPAS-CO 2 system, establish the possibility of using MPAS's unique features in atmospheric CO 2 transport sensitivity studies and in inverse modeling with advanced methods such as variational data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.

all-sky↗

DOE OSTI2022

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adiabatic behavior of an elliptical vortex in a time-dependent external strain flow

The adiabatic behavior of two-dimensional (2D) fluid vortices subject to slowly varying, time-dependent external strain flows is studied theoretically, and experimentally using magnetized non-neutral electron plasmas. Here the E × B drift dynamics of the electrons perpendicular to the magnetic field are analogous to the motion of fluid vorticity under the 2D Euler equations describing ideal fluids. A low-dimensional elliptical vortex patch model is used along with a WKB approximation to derive a formula for the breaking of an adiabatic invariant due to the changing external flow. The invariant is interpreted as the amplitude of a perturbative oscillation about a stable fixed point corresponding to a steady elliptical vortex. Smooth, hyperbolic tangent and piecewise linear ramp functions are considered for the external strain time dependence. Standard exponential breaking is observed in the former case, whereas the latter exhibits a power-law breaking curve with periodic modulation. It is found that a driving term in the equations of motion contributes the majority of the breaking whereas the frequency variation plays a weaker, but significant role. The experimental data agree closely with the theoretical model. The most significant deviation is due to inviscid damping behavior associated with the smooth edges of the experimental vortices, which tends to reduce the amplitude of the oscillation. Finally, the results are compared and contrasted with other related experimental, numerical, and theoretical work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Woven ceramic matrix composite surrogate model based on physics-informed recurrent neural network

A recurrent neural network (RNN) based surrogate model is developed to emulate the nonlinear constitutive behavior of woven ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) driven by matrix damage at multiple length scales. Physics-informed constraints are introduced into the surrogate model through regularization to ground the prediction in physics and improve its predictive capabilities. Training data is generated using the multiscale generalized method of cells (MSGMC) approach coupled with a matrix damage model. This coupling permits simulating the nonlinear behavior of woven CMCs based on constituent response at the micro-, meso-, and macroscales. The multiscale repeating unit cell is loaded under non-monotonic conditions including multiple load / unload cycles and tension / compression. The fiber volume fraction as well as the intra- and intertow void volume fractions are also varied in the generation of training data. Therefore, the RNN-based surrogate model is tasked with predicting, as a function of variable input strain sequence and fiber and void volume fractions, the resulting stress versus strain response while satisfying physical constraints such as positive semi-definiteness of the tangent stiffness matrix and linear elastic unloading. Further, the trained surrogate model effectively matches the stress versus strain response and successfully predicts the tangent modulus throughout the loading regime. Neural network based surrogate models can offer efficient alternatives to running computationally intensive multiscale material models to simulate the nonlinear response of large structural models. Therefore the presented work provides evidence towards the feasibility of developing, training, and running such models for CMCs with complex architectures, nonlinear multiaxial material response, and under non-monotonic loading conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental investigation on the effects of fabric architectures on mechanical and damage behaviors of carbon/epoxy woven composites

The mechanical behaviors and damage evolutions of carbon/epoxy woven fabric composites with three different geometries, i.e., one plain weave and two twill weave patterns with different areal densities, are studied under tensile loading. The effects of weave patterns on mechanical properties are investigated by monotonic and cyclic tension tests. Remarkable variations in stress–strain curve, Poisson’s ratio, residual strain and strain map exist in the three composites. Crimp ratio is found to be a critical factor to govern the mechanical properties. With smaller crimp ratio, a quasi-linear stress–strain curve with higher elastic modulus and strength is observed. The stress–strain curves of composites with higher crimp ratio contain transition stages with significant tangent modulus degradation. Elastic modulus, strength and damage initiation are all correlated with the crimp ratio linearly regardless of the fabric pattern. Dramatic nonlinear evolution in Poisson’s ratio occurs in the composite with higher crimp ratio. Cyclic tension results indicate that the residual strain is a more appropriate damage indicator than the unloading elastic modulus. Microstructure examination shows that damage developments are essentially related to the fabric geometry, and result in various mechanical behaviors. This work provides important insights into the geometry-deformation mechanism-mechanical property relationship of the woven composites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Generating accurate density matrices on the tangent space of a Grassmann manifold

Interpolating a density matrix from a set of known density matrices is not a trivial task. This is because a linear combination of density matrices does not necessarily correspond to another density matrix. In this Communication, density matrices are examined as objects of a Grassmann manifold. Although this manifold is not a vector space, its tangent space is a vector space. As a result, one can map the density matrices on this manifold to their corresponding vectors in the tangent space and then perform interpolations on that tangent space. The resulting interpolated vector can be mapped back to the Grassmann manifold, which can then be utilized (1) as an optimal initial guess for a self-consistent field (SCF) calculation or (2) to derive energy directly without time-consuming SCF iterations. Such a promising approach is denoted as Grassmann interpolation (G-Int). The hydrogen molecule has been used to illustrate that the described interpolated method in this work preserves the essential attributes of a density matrix. For phosphorus mononitride and ferrocene, it was demonstrated numerically that reference points for the definition of the corresponding tangent spaces can be chosen arbitrarily. In addition, the interpolated density matrices provide a superior and essentially converged initial guess for an SCF calculation to make the SCF procedure itself unnecessary. Finally, this accurate, efficient, robust, and systematically improved G-Int strategy has been used for the first time to generate highly accurate potential energy surfaces with fine details for the difficult case, ferrocene.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Kerr learning

Quantum machine learning is a rapidly evolving field of research that could facilitate important applications for quantum computing and also significantly impact data-driven sciences. In our work, based on various arguments from complexity theory and physics, we demonstrate that a single Kerr mode can provide some 'quantum enhancements' when dealing with kernel-based methods. Using kernel properties, neural tangent kernel theory, first-order perturbation theory of the Kerr non-linearity, and non-perturbative numerical simulations, we show that quantum enhancements could happen in terms of convergence time and generalization error. Furthermore, we make explicit indications on how higher-dimensional input data could be considered. Finally, we propose an experimental protocol, that we call quantum Kerr learning, based on circuit QED.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deterministic Linear Time for Maximal Poisson‐Disk Sampling using Chocks without Rejection or Approximation

Abstract We show how to sample uniformly within the three‐sided region bounded by a circle, a radial ray, and a tangent, called a “chock.” By dividing a 2D planar rectangle into a background grid, and subtracting Poisson disks from grid squares, we are able to represent the available region for samples exactly using triangles and chocks. Uniform random samples are generated from chock areas precisely without rejection sampling. This provides the first implemented algorithm for precise maximal Poisson‐disk sampling in deterministic linear time. We prove O(n · M(b) log b), where n is the number of samples, b is the bits of numerical precision and M is the cost of multiplication. Prior methods have higher time complexity, take expected time, are non‐maximal, and/or are not Poisson‐disk distributions in the most precise mathematical sense. We fill this theoretical lacuna.

Mitchell, Scott A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

TwoFold: Highly accurate structure and affinity prediction for protein-ligand complexes from sequences

We describe our development of ab initio protein-ligand binding pose prediction models based on transformers and binding affinity prediction models based on the neural tangent kernel (NTK). Folding both protein and ligand, the TwoFold models achieve efficient and quality predictions matching state-of-the-art implementations while additionally reconstructing protein structures. In conclusion, solving NTK models points to a new use case for highly optimized linear solver benchmarking codes on HPC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using in-situ strain measurements to evaluate the accuracy of stress estimation procedures from fracture injection/shut-in tests

Fracture injection/shut-in tests are commonly used to measure the state of stress. Injection creates a hydraulic fracture (or in some cases, opens a preexisting fracture), and then the pressure after shut-in is monitored to identify fracture closure. Different interpretation procedures have been proposed for estimating closure, and the procedures sometimes yield significantly different results. In this study, direct, in-situ strain measurements are used to observe fracture reopening and closure. The tests were performed as part of the EGS Collab project, a mesoscale project performed at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The tests were instrumented with the SIMFIP tool, a double-packer probe with a high-resolution three-dimensional borehole displacement sensor. The measurements provide a direct observation of the fracture closure signature, enabling a high-fidelity estimate of the fracture closure stress (ie, the normal stress on the fracture). In two of the four tests, injection created an opening mode fracture, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the minimum principal stress. In the other two tests, injection probably opened preexisting natural fractures, and so the closure stress can be interpreted as the normal stress on the fractures. The strain measurements are compared against different proposed methods for estimating closure stress from pressure transients. The shut-in transients are analyzed with two techniques that are widely used in the field of petroleum engineering – the ‘tangent’ method and the ‘compliance’ method. In three of the four tests, the tangent method significantly underestimates the closure stress. The compliance method is reasonably accurate in all four tests. Closure stress is also interpreted using two other commonly-used methods – ‘first deviation from linearity’ and the method of Hayashi and Haimson. In comparison with the SIMFIP data, these methods tend to overestimate the closure stress, evidently because they identify closure from early-time transient effects, such as near-wellbore tortuosity. In two of the tests, microseismic imaging provides an independent estimate of the size of the fracture created by injection. When combined with a simple mass balance calculation, the SIMFIP stress measurements yield predictions of fracture size that are reasonably consistent with the estimates from microseismic. In conclusion, the calculations imply an apparent fracture toughness 2-3x higher than typical laboratory-derived values.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feature learning and generalization in deep networks with orthogonal weights

Fully-connected deep neural networks with weights initialized from independent Gaussian distributions can be tuned to criticality, which prevents the exponential growth or decay of signals propagating through the network. However, such networks still exhibit fluctuations that grow linearly with the depth of the network, which may impair the training of networks with width comparable to depth. We show analytically that rectangular networks with tanh activations and weights initialized from the ensemble of orthogonal matrices have corresponding preactivation fluctuations which are independent of depth, to leading order in inverse width. Moreover, we demonstrate numerically that, at initialization, all correlators involving the neural tangent kernel (NTK) and its descendants at leading order in inverse width—which govern the evolution of observables during training—saturate at a depth of ~20, rather than growing without bound as in the case of Gaussian initializations. We speculate that this structure preserves finite-width feature learning while reducing overall noise, thus improving both generalization and training speed in deep networks with depth comparable to width. We provide some experimental justification by relating empirical measurements of the NTK to the superior performance of deep non-linear orthogonal networks trained under full-batch gradient descent on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representation Learning via Quantum Neural Tangent Kernels

Variational quantum circuits are used in quantum machine learning and variational quantum simulation tasks. Designing good variational circuits or predicting how well they perform for given learning or optimization tasks is still unclear. Here we discuss these problems, analyzing variational quantum circuits using the theory of neural tangent kernels. We define quantum neural tangent kernels, and derive dynamical equations for their associated loss function in optimization and learning tasks. We analytically solve the dynamics in the frozen limit, or lazy training regime, where variational angles change slowly and a linear perturbation is good enough. We extend the analysis to a dynamical setting, including quadratic corrections in the variational angles. We then consider a hybrid quantum classical architecture and define a large-width limit for hybrid kernels, showing that a hybrid quantum classical neural network can be approximately Gaussian. The results presented here show limits for which analytical understandings of the training dynamics for variational quantum circuits, used for quantum machine learning and optimization problems, are possible. These analytical results are supported by numerical simulations of quantum machine-learning experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗