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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Landmark-embedded Gaussian process with applications for functional data modeling

In practice, we often need to infer the value of a target variable from functional observation data. A challenge in this task is that the relationship between the functional data and the target variable is very complex: the target variable not only influences the shape but also the location of the functional data. In addition, due to the uncertainties in the environment, the relationship is probabilistic, that is, for a given fixed target variable value, we still see variations in the shape and location of the functional data. To address this challenge, we present a landmark-embedded Gaussian process model that describes the relationship between the functional data and the target variable. A unique feature of the model is that landmark information is embedded in the Gaussian process model so that both the shape and location information of the functional data are considered simultaneously in a unified manner. Gibbs-Metropolis-Hasting algorithm is used for model parameters estimation and target variable inference. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated by extensive numerical studies and a case study of nano-sensor calibration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1979

A variable optical target simulator

A crucial experiment, relative to determining the ability of an imaging seeker to track a target and generate accurate terminal guidance, requires an optical device which can provide imagery that grows in size as a real-time estimate of true missile flight conditions. The basic components of an Optical Contrast TV Imaging Seeker are reviewed to establish the need for an optical target simulator. An optomechanical device called a Variable Optical Target Simulator (VOTS) which generates end game scene situations is discussed. The organization of optical components and their control for providing an image which grows in size as a linear estimate of real world situations is presented.

Kulas, C. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Informative and non-informative decomposition of turbulent flow fields

Not all the information in a turbulent field is relevant for understanding particular regions or variables in the flow. Here, we present a method for decomposing a source field into its informative Φ I (x, t) and residual Φ R (x, t) components relative to another target field. The method is referred to as informative and non-informative decomposition (IND). All the necessary information for physical understanding, reduced-order modelling and control of the target variable is contained in Φ I (x, t), whereas Φ R (x, t) offers no substantial utility in these contexts. The decomposition is formulated as an optimisation problem that seeks to maximise the time-lagged mutual information of the informative component with the target variable while minimising the mutual information with the residual component. The method is applied to extract the informative and residual components of the velocity field in a turbulent channel flow, using the wall shear stress as the target variable. We demonstrate the utility of IND in three scenarios: (i) physical insight into the effect of the velocity fluctuations on the wall shear stress; (ii) prediction of the wall shear stress using velocities far from the wall; and (iii) development of control strategies for drag reduction in a turbulent channel flow using opposition control. In case (i), IND reveals that the informative velocity related to wall shear stress consists of wall-attached high- and low-velocity streaks, collocated with regions of vertical motions and weak spanwise velocity. This informative structure is embedded within a larger-scale streak–roll structure of residual velocity, which bears no information about the wall shear stress. In case (ii), the best-performing model for predicting wall shear stress is a convolutional neural network that uses the informative component of the velocity as input, while the residual velocity component provides no predictive capabilities. Finally, in case (iii), we demonstrate that the informative component of the wall-normal velocity is closely linked to the observability of the target variable and holds the essential information needed to develop successful control strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations

Abstract The atmospheric component of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 has included many new features in the physics parameterizations compared to its predecessors. Potential complex nonlinear interactions among the new features create a significant challenge for understanding the model behaviors and parameter tuning. Using the one‐at‐a‐time method, the benefit of tuning one parameter may offset the benefit of tuning another parameter, or improvement in one target variable may lead to degradation in another target variable. To better understand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 model behaviors and physics, we conducted a large number of short simulations (three days) in which 18 parameters carefully selected from parameterizations of deep convection, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics and microphysics were perturbed simultaneously using the Latin hypercube sampling method. From the perturbed parameter ensemble simulations and use of different skill score functions, we identified the most sensitive parameters, quantified how the model responds to changes of the parameters for both global mean and spatial distribution, and estimated the maximum likelihood of model parameter space for a number of important fidelity metrics. Comparison of the parametric sensitivity using simulations of two different lengths suggests that perturbed parameter ensemble using short simulations has some bearing on understanding parametric sensitivity of longer simulations. Results from this analysis provide a more comprehensive picture of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 behavior. The difficulty in reducing biases in multiple variables simultaneously highlights the need of characterizing model structural uncertainty (so‐called embedded errors) to inform future development efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Uncovering the Forced Climate Response from a Single Ensemble Member Using Statistical Learning

Internal atmospheric variability fundamentally limits predictability of climate and obscures evidence of anthropogenic climate change regionally and on time scales of up to a few decades. Dynamical adjustment techniques estimate and subsequently remove the influence of atmospheric circulation variability on temperature or precipitation. The residual component is expected to contain the thermodynamical signal of the externally forced response but with less circulation-induced noise. Existing techniques have led to important insights into recent trends in regional (hydro-) climate and their drivers, but the variance explained by circulation is often low. Here, we develop a novel dynamical adjustment technique by implementing principles from statistical learning. We demonstrate in an ensemble of Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations that statistical learning methods, such as regularized linear models, establish a clearer relationship between circulation variability and atmospheric target variables, and need relatively short periods of record for training (around 30 years). The method accounts for, on average, 83% and 78% of European monthly winter temperature and precipitation variability at gridcell level, and around 80% of global mean temperature and hemispheric precipitation variability. We show that the residuals retain forced thermodynamical contributions to temperature and precipitation variability. Accurate estimates of the total forced response can thus be recovered assuming that forced circulation changes are gradual over time. Overall, forced climate response estimates can be extracted at regional or global scales from approximately 3–5 times fewer ensemble members, or even a single realization, using statistical learning techniques. We anticipate the technique will contribute to reducing uncertainties around internal variability and facilitating climate change detection and attribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development and Testing of Data Mining Algorithms for Earth Observation

The new algorithms developed under this project included a principled procedure for classification of objects, events or circumstances according to a target variable when a very large number of potential predictor variables is available but the number of cases that can be used for training a classifier is relatively small. These "high dimensional" problems require finding a minimal set of variables -called the Markov Blanket-- sufficient for predicting the value of the target variable. An algorithm, the Markov Blanket Fan Search, was developed, implemented and tested on both simulated and real data in conjunction with a graphical model classifier, which was also implemented. Another algorithm developed and implemented in TETRAD IV for time series elaborated on work by C. Granger and N. Swanson, which in turn exploited some of our earlier work. The algorithms in question learn a linear time series model from data. Given such a time series, the simultaneous residual covariances, after factoring out time dependencies, may provide information about causal processes that occur more rapidly than the time series representation allow, so called simultaneous or contemporaneous causal processes. Working with A. Monetta, a graduate student from Italy, we produced the correct statistics for estimating the contemporaneous causal structure from time series data using the TETRAD IV suite of algorithms. Two economists, David Bessler and Kevin Hoover, have independently published applications using TETRAD style algorithms to the same purpose. These implementations and algorithmic developments were separately used in two kinds of studies of climate data: Short time series of geographically proximate climate variables predicting agricultural effects in California, and longer duration climate measurements of temperature teleconnections.

Glymour, Clark↗
NASA NTRS2002

An End-to-End Architecture for Science Goal Driven Observing

New observatories will have greater on-board storage capacity and on-board processing capabilities. The new bottleneck will be download capacity. The cost of downlink time and limitations of bandwidth will end the era where all exposure data is downloaded and all data processing is performed on the ground. In addition, observing campaigns involving inherently variable targets will need scheduling flexibility to focus observing time and data download on exposures that are scientifically interesting. The ability to quickly recognize and react to such events by re-prioritizing the observing schedule will be an essential characteristic for maximizing scientific returns. It will also be a step towards increasing spacecraft autonomy, a major goal of NASA's strategic plan. The science goal monitoring (SGM) system is a proof-of-concept effort to address these challenges. We are developing an interactive distributed system that will use on-board processing and storage combined with event-driven interfaces with ground-based processing and operations, to enable fast re-prioritization of observing schedules, and to minimize time spent on non-optimized observations. SGM is initially aimed towards time-tagged observing modes used frequently in spectroscopic studies of varying targets. In particular, the SGM is collaborating with the proposed MIDEX-class mission Kronos team. The variable targets that Kronos seeks to study make an adaptive system such as SGM particularly valuable for achieving mission goals. However, the architecture and interfaces will also be designed for easy adaptability to other observing platforms, including ground-based systems and to work with different scheduling and pipeline processing systems. This talk will focus on our strategy for developing SGM and the technical challenges that we have encountered. We will discuss the SGM architecture as it applies to the Kronos mission and explain how it is scalable to other missions.

Jones, Jeremy↗
NASA NTRS1993

Impact penetration experiments in teflon targets of variable thickness

Approximately 20.4 sq m of Teflon thermal blankets on the nonspinning Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) were exposed to the orbital debris and micrometeoroid environment in low-Earth orbit (LEO) for approximately 5.7 years. Each blanket consisted of an outer layer (approximately 125 micron thick) of FEP Teflon that was backed by a vapor-deposited metal mirror (Inconel; less than 1 micron thick). The inner surface consisted of organic binders and Chemglaze thermal protective paint (approximately 50 micron thick) resulting in a somewhat variable, total blanket thickness of approximately 180 to 200 microns. There was at least one of these blankets, each exposing approximately 1.2 sq m of surface area, on nine of LDEF's 12 principal pointing directions, the exceptions being Rows 3, 9, and 12. As a consequence, these blankets represent a significant opportunity for micrometeoroid and debris studies, in general, and specifically they provide an opportunity to address those issues that require information about pointing direction (i.e., spatial density of impact events as a function of instrument orientation). During deintegration of the LDEF spacecraft at KSC, all penetration holes greater than or equal to 300 micron in diameter were documented and were recently synthesized in terms of spatial density as a function of LDEF viewing direction by. The present report describes ongoing cratering and penetration experiments in pure Teflon targets, which are intended to establish the relationships between crater or penetration-hole diameters and the associated projectile dimensions at laboratory velocities (i.e., 6 km/s). The ultimate objective of these efforts is to extract reliable mass-frequencies and associated fluxes of hypervelocity particles in LEO.

Hoerz, F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Distributed Monitoring of the R(sup 2) Statistic for Linear Regression

The problem of monitoring a multivariate linear regression model is relevant in studying the evolving relationship between a set of input variables (features) and one or more dependent target variables. This problem becomes challenging for large scale data in a distributed computing environment when only a subset of instances is available at individual nodes and the local data changes frequently. Data centralization and periodic model recomputation can add high overhead to tasks like anomaly detection in such dynamic settings. Therefore, the goal is to develop techniques for monitoring and updating the model over the union of all nodes data in a communication-efficient fashion. Correctness guarantees on such techniques are also often highly desirable, especially in safety-critical application scenarios. In this paper we develop DReMo a distributed algorithm with very low resource overhead, for monitoring the quality of a regression model in terms of its coefficient of determination (R2 statistic). When the nodes collectively determine that R2 has dropped below a fixed threshold, the linear regression model is recomputed via a network-wide convergecast and the updated model is broadcast back to all nodes. We show empirically, using both synthetic and real data, that our proposed method is highly communication-efficient and scalable, and also provide theoretical guarantees on correctness.

Bhaduri, Kanishka↗
NASA NTRS1973

Investigation of techniques for correcting ERTS data for solar and atmospheric effects

The author has identified the following significant results. A technique is described by which an ERTS investigator can obtain absolute target reflectances by correcting spacecraft radiance measurements for variable target irradiance, atmospheric attenuation, and atmospheric backscatter. A simple measuring instrument and the necessary atmospheric measurements are discussed, and examples demonstrate the nature and magnitude of the atmospheric corrections. Preliminary results indicate that the radiant power measuring instrument will provide one technique for calibrating ERTS-1 data. The March 27, 1973 mission was significant in the NASA C-130 aircraft and ERTS-1 simultaneously passed over the test sites where RPMI's were being deployed to measure solar and atmospheric parameters and site reflectance.

Rogers, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A technique for the correcting ERTS data for solar and atmospheric effects

A technique is described by which an ERTS investigator can obtain absolute target reflectances by correcting spacecraft radiance measurements for variable target irradiance, atmospheric attenuation, and atmospheric backscatter. A simple measuring instrument and the necessary atmospheric measurements are discussed, and examples demonstrate the nature and magnitude of the atmospheric corrections.

Rogers, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Science Goal Driven Observing: A Step Towards Maximizing Science Returns and Spacecraft Autonomy

In the coming decade, the drive to increase the scientific returns on capital investment and to reduce costs will force automation to be implemented in many of the scientific tasks that have traditionally been manually overseen. Thus, spacecraft autonomy will become an even greater part of mission operations. While recent missions have made great strides in the ability to autonomously monitor and react to changing health and physical status of spacecraft, little progress has been made in responding quickly to science driven events. The new generation of space-based telescopes/observatories will see deeper, with greater clarity, and they will generate data at an unprecedented rate. Yet, while onboard data processing and storage capability will increase rapidly, bandwidth for downloading data will not increase as fast and can become a significant bottleneck and cost of a science program. For observations of inherently variable targets and targets of opportunity, the ability to recognize early if an observation will not meet the science goals of variability or minimum brightness, and react accordingly, can have a major positive impact on the overall scientific returns of an observatory and on its operational costs. If the observatory can reprioritize the schedule to focus on alternate targets, discard uninteresting observations prior to downloading, or download them at a reduced resolution its overall efficiency will be dramatically increased. We are investigating and developing tools for a science goal monitoring (SGM) system. The SGM will have an interface to help capture higher-level science goals from scientists and translate them into a flexible observing strategy that SGM can execute and monitor. SGM will then monitor the incoming data stream and interface with data processing systems to recognize significant events. When an event occurs, the system will use the science goals given it to reprioritize observations, and react appropriately and/or communicate with ground systems - both human and machine - for confirmation and/or further high priority analyses.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗
NASA NTRS2023

JWST NIRCam Defocused Imaging Photometric Stability Performance and How It Can Sense Mirror Tilts

We use JWST NIRCam short-wavelength photometry to capture a transit lightcurve of the exoplanet HAT-P-14 b to assess performance as part of instrument commissioning. The short-wavelength precision is 152 ppm per 27 s integration as measured over the full time series compared to a theoretical limit of 107 ppm, after corrections to spatially correlated 1/f noise. Persistence effects from charge trapping are well fit by an exponential function with short characteristic timescales, settling on the order of 5–15 minutes. The short-wavelength defocused photometry is also uniquely well suited to measure the real-time wave-front error of JWST. Analysis of the images and reconstructed wave-front maps indicates that two different hexagonal primary mirror segments exhibited “tilt events,” where they changed orientation rapidly in less than ∼1.4 s. In some cases, the magnitude and timing of the flux jumps caused by tilt events can be accurately predicted with a telescope model. These tilt events can be sensed by simultaneous longer-wavelength NIRCam grism spectral images alone in the form of changes to the point-spread function, diagnosed from the full width at half maximum. They can also be sensed with the fine guidance sensor instrument from difference images. Tilt events possibly from sudden releases of stress in the backplane structure behind the mirrors were expected during the commissioning period because they were found in ground-based testing. Tilt events have shown signs of decreasing in frequency but have not disappeared completely. The detectors exhibit some minor (less than 1%) deviations from linear behavior in the first few groups of each integration, potentially impacting absolute fluxes and transit depths on bright targets, where only a handful of groups are possible. Overall, the noise is within 50% of the theoretical photon noise and read noise. This bodes well for high-precision measurements of transiting exoplanets and other time variable targets.

Everett Schlawin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining the Multiscale Structure of Geophysical Fields in Machine Learning: The Case of Precipitation

The use of deep-learning algorithms for estimating the value of geophysical variables from remotely sensed information is rapidly expanding. The typical objective function minimized in such algorithms is the mean square error (MSE), which is known to lead to smooth estimates with compressed dynamical range as compared to the true distribution of the variable of interest. Here, we introduce and evaluate alternative objective functions, focusing on the retrieval of precipitation rates from satellite passive microwave radiometric measurements using a deep convolutional neural network. For this testbed application, the results show that explicitly imposing the preservation of the statistical distribution and spatial wavelet power spectrum of the target variable allows to accurately reproduce extreme values and sharp gradients across multiple scales in this study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

De novo design of high-affinity binders of bioactive helical peptides

Many peptide hormones form an α-helix on binding their receptors, and sensitive methods for their detection could contribute to better clinical management of disease. De novo protein design can now generate binders with high affinity and specificity to structured proteins. However, the design of interactions between proteins and short peptides with helical propensity is an unmet challenge. Here we describe parametric generation and deep learning-based methods for designing proteins to address this challenge. We show that by extending RFdiffusion to enable binder design to flexible targets, and to refining input structure models by successive noising and denoising (partial diffusion), picomolar-affinity binders can be generated to helical peptide targets by either refining designs generated with other methods, or completely de novo starting from random noise distributions without any subsequent experimental optimization. The RFdiffusion designs enable the enrichment and subsequent detection of parathyroid hormone and glucagon by mass spectrometry, and the construction of bioluminescence-based protein biosensors. The ability to design binders to conformationally variable targets, and to optimize by partial diffusion both natural and designed proteins, should be broadly useful.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are useful tools for predicting and understanding past and future aspects of the climate system. However, the biological and physical parameters used in ESMs can have wide variations in their estimates. Even small changes in these parameters can yield unexpected results without a clear explanation of how a particular outcome was reached. The standard method for estimating ESM sensitivity is to compare spatiotemporal distributions of variables from different runs of a single ESM. However, a potential pitfall of this method is that ESM output could match observational patterns because of compensating errors. For example, if a model predicts overly weak upwelling and low nutrient concentrations, it might compensate for this by allowing phytoplankton to have a high sensitivity to nutrients. Recently, we demonstrated that neural network ensembles (NNEs) are capable of extracting relationships between predictor and target variables within ocean biogeochemical models. Being able to view the relationships between variables, along with spatiotemporal distributions, allows for a more mechanistically based examination of ESM outputs. Here, we investigated whether we could apply NNEs to help us determine why different ESMs produce different spatiotemporal distributions of phytoplankton biomass. We tested this using three cases. The first and second case used different runs of the same ESM, except that the physical circulations differed between them in the first case, while the biological equations differed between them in the second. Our results indicated that the NNEs were capable of extracting the relationships between variables for different runs of a single ESM, allowing us to distinguish between differences due to changes in circulation (which do not change relationships) from changes in biogeochemical formulation (which do change relationships). In the third case, we applied NNEs to two different ESMs. The results of the third case highlighted the capability of NNEs to contrast the apparent relationships of different ESMs and some of the challenges it presents. Although applied specifically to the ocean components of an ESM, our study demonstrates that Earth system modelers can use NNEs to separate the contributions of different components of ESMs. Specifically, this allows modelers to compare the apparent relationships across different ESMs and observational datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗