Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “techno-economic modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN

Techno-Economic Evaluation of a 600MW Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant using the Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool

This paper presents a techno-economic evaluation of the proposed 600 MW, 8-hour Craig – Hayden pumped storage hydropower project using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Tool. The analysis integrates plant technical characteristics, regional grid conditions, and market-based operating assumptions to quantify stacked value streams from energy arbitrage, capacity, ancillary services, transmission congestion relief, and reliability. Both price taker and price influencer frameworks are applied to examine the impact of market participation and system interactions on lifecycle economic performance using Benefit - Cost Analysis and Multi - Criteria Decision Analysis. The results show that the price taker approach provides higher revenue estimates based on exogenous price signals, while the price influencer approach captures production cost savings, renewable curtailment reduction, and market price formation, yielding more conservative but system-representative outcomes. The study demonstrates the strategic value of long-duration PSH for enhancing operational flexibility, resource adequacy, and grid reliability in a high-renewable Western Interconnection.

Bhattacharyya, Arjun [ORNL] (ORCID:000900060976046

Socio-Techno-Economic Feasibility of Deep Geothermal with EGS for Residential District Heating in the Northeastern United States

In this paper, we present socio-techno-economic simulation results for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) district heating systems in the northeastern United States. We applied the geospatial Distributed Geothermal Market Demand (dGeo) tool coupled with GEOPHIRES to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal deep direct-use, utilizing EGS reservoirs for providing residential heating with district heating systems. The results were combined with JEDI results to assess social impacts. Simulation results assuming doublet EGS reservoirs with target production temperature of 80 degrees C and newly constructed district heating systems indicate a wide range in system levelized cost of heat (LCOH) values ranging from ~$15/MMBtu to over $1,000/MMBtu, with most the attractive regions urban areas with high total thermal demand and high thermal demand density. We estimate about 60 GWth in potential installed capacity with LCOH values under $50/MMBtu and 100 GWth in potential capacity with LCOH values under $100/MMBtu, respectively.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Advancing technologies for lignin-based jet fuel production in aqueous phase

Integrating lignin into a cellulosic ethanol plant for the co-production of lignin-based jet fuel (LJF) in aqueous phase offers a significant opportunity to boost operational efficiency, economic viability, carbon conversion, and the overall sustainability of biofuel and chemical production. LJF is lignin-structure-based jet fuel blendstocks primarily composed of alkyl-substituted mono-, bi-, and tri-cyclohexanes. It exhibits high energy density, potential for low emissions, and favourable blend characteristics that comply with drop-in specifications. An overview of lignin feedstock, catalytic processes, LJF chemical compositions, fuel properties tests, and techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) indicate that (1) the reactivity of lignin plays a crucial role in its structure transformation to LJF molecules; (2) catalytic processing of lignin to LJF can occur through a simultaneous depolymerization and hydrodeoxygenation process, bypassing the intermediate step of producing and upgrading lignin-derived oil; (3) LJF's uniqueness molecules making it more promising for high energy content and low emission jet fuel properties for next generation sustainable aviation fuel (SAF); and (4) TEA and LCA demonstrate that LJF is not only potentially cost-effective but also offers favourable carbon footprint compared to other SAFs. In conclusion, this review highlights the most recent advancements in LJF technology, along with the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in fulfilling its potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

BLEECAM™ (Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials) [SWR-25-125]

The National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR) Benchmarking Life Cycle Environmental, Economic, and Social Metrics for Critical and Advanced Minerals and Materials (BLEECAM™) is an open-source, integrated decision-support tool for evaluating the impacts, risks, and trade-offs across U.S. and global materials supply chains. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, BLEECAM supports supply chain and market analysis. The tool integrates multi-objective supply chain optimization, system dynamics, network design, lifecycle assessment, techno-economic modeling, and social impact assessment methods to evaluate how supply chains evolve over time, geography, and deployment scenarios. BLEECAM also supports analysis related to energy infrastructure, data centers and digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors that depend on critical materials.

Khalifa, SherifA. [National Laboratory of the Rock

Cost and Carbon Intensity Implications of Coprocessing Sustainable Aviation Fuel at Petroleum Refineries

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will play a critical role in decarbonizing the aviation industry. Among SAF production pathways, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) stands out for its scalability, supported by abundant feedstock availability and a well-established bioethanol industry. However, significant reductions in SAF carbon intensity (CI) require the use of future feedstocks (e.g., cellulosic) whose adoption is hindered by high capital costs for feedstock processing and ethanol upgrading. Here, we evaluate the financial viability and environmental implications of integrating an ATJ SAF biorefinery within a petroleum refinery, utilizing miscanthus and switchgrass as example feedstocks. Three scenarios are evaluated: standalone (benchmark), colocated, and repurposing (coprocessing SAF within the petroleum refinery). Results show repurposing reduces baseline capital costs by 36% and SAF minimum selling price (MSP) by 12% to 8.14 USD·gal −1 ; the superior performance of repurposing is consistent across both feedstocks. Integration has a limited effect on SAF CI, which remains stable across scenarios, whereas using cellulosic feedstocks reduces CI by over 70% relative to corn, with baseline values of 17.01 g CO 2 e· MJ −1 for miscanthus and 12.23 g CO 2 e·MJ −1 for switchgrass. Global sensitivity analysis reveals MSP declines with greater coprocessing levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Valorization of consolidated bioprocessing residues for bioplastics

This study demonstrates an organic solvent-free processing strategy to valorize consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) residues, from switchgrass and poplar biomass, into functional poly(butylene succinate) (PBS)-based biocomposites using high-shear homogenization (HSH). HSH transformed the switchgrass and poplar CBP residues (CBP-R) into fine, uniformly distributed particles and microfibers. The composites of PBS with homogenized switchgrass residues (H-CBP-R-SG) or homogenized poplar residues (H-CBP-R-P) at a 70/30 weight ratio exhibited improved processability and mechanical integrity, with the Young's modulus for the PBS/H-CBP-R-SG and PBS/H-CBP-R-P nearly doubling to 0.66 ± 0.07 GPa and 0.65 ± 0.04 GPa, respectively, compared to neat PBS (0.36 ± 0.02 GPa). Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) reveals a significant suppression of the tan δ peak magnitude, indicating that HSH-mediated physical activation facilitates stress transfer in composites typical of covalent chemical grafting systems. While the transition to a stiffness-dominated profile reduces ductility, the resulting composites exhibit the dimensional stability and resistance to thermal warping required for high-fidelity FDM 3D printing and injection molding. Beyond material performance, comprehensive techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) confirmed that diverting CBP residues into composite products can improve the economic viability of the biorefinery without substantially increasing biorefinery global warming potential (GWP). At a 30 wt% blend ratio, incorporating residuals into PBS yielded a minimum selling price for the composite of $\$4.07$ per kg compared to the conventional bioplastic price of $\$5.00$ per kg. This approach aligns with circular bioeconomy principles by converting waste streams into value-added products. Furthermore, this innovative strategy addresses key challenges in bioplastic development, including cost, compatibility, and performance, while simultaneously advancing waste minimization strategies for sustainable manufacturing systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Chemical recycling of mixed textile waste

Globally, less than 0.5% of postconsumer textile waste is recycled, with the majority incinerated or ending up in landfills. Most postconsumer textiles are mixed fibers, complicating mechanical recycling due to material blends and contaminants. Here, we demonstrate the chemical conversion of postconsumer mixed textile waste using microwave-assisted glycolysis over a ZnO catalyst followed by solvent dissolution. This approach electrifies the process heat while allowing rapid depolymerization of polyester and spandex to their monomers in 15 minutes. A simple solvent dissolution enables the separation of cotton and nylon. We assess the quality of all components through extensive material characterization, discuss their potential for sustainable recycling, and provide a techno-economic analysis of the economic feasibility of the process.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Final Report: Process Intensification of Hydrogen Production through Sorption-Enhanced Gasification of Biomass

The University of Utah, in partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), evaluated Sorption-Enhanced Gasification (SEG) as a transformative pathway for producing hydrogen with the potential for negative CO 2 emissions. SEG integrates gasification, water-gas shift, and in-situ carbon capture within a dual fluidized bed reactor to enable efficient clean hydrogen production. Key challenges related to biomass variability and process complexity were addressed through feedstock engineering, reaction optimization, and process validation. A co-pelletized biomass–limestone feedstock was developed to simplify feeding and introduction of makeup limestone. Kinetic and sorbent studies identified optimal operating conditions and confirmed the suitability of low-cost limestone, while catalysts were developed to reduce tar formation. Reactor modeling and techno-economic analysis indicated that SEG can achieve competitive hydrogen production costs, particularly when combined with carbon incentives, supporting its potential for scale-up and carbon-negative operation.

08 HYDROGEN

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.