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At least 19 records

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DOE OSTI2022

WaveSPARC: TPL Assessment - Guiding Technology Development Trajectories to Successful Outcomes in Less Time, at Less Overall Cost, and With Less Encountered Risk

marine renewable energy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO 2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2 nd -generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.

Biomethane↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗

DOE OSTI2022

WBS 2.2.1.402 - Wave-SPARC: Systematic Process & Analysis for Reaching Commercialization

Wave-SPARC is empowering the marine energy community with the tools necessary to achieve a significant improvement in techno-economic performance of wave generated grid power. A detailed systems engineering approach simultaneously balances around 100 cost and performance drivers (functional requirements and capabilities) of wave energy converters (WECs). Publicly accessible technology innovation and assessment methods and tools (new to the wave energy sector) have been delivered. They guide technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk. Through the use of these methods and tools along with proven structured inventive techniques the project continues to deliver high potential novel wave energy technology concepts for validation and subsequent development by industry. The intended outcomes are: (1) Invention, assessment, identification, verification and validation of novel and high techno-economic-potential WEC technology concepts to deliver high-confidence "seeds" for subsequent industrial development to full commercial application and economic viability (2) Development and delivery of WEC technology innovation and assessment methodologies and tools and provision of these as services and for free use by industry and the entire sector (3) International collaboration for global best practice alignment of assessment and innovation methods.

innovation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies: Preprint

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

metrics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies

metrics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adapting the Technology Performance Level Integrated Assessment Framework to Low-TRL Technologies Within the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Industry, Part I

With the urgent need to mitigate climate change and rising global temperatures, technological solutions that reduce atmospheric CO 2 are an increasingly important part of the global solution. As a result, the nascent carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) industry is rapidly growing with a plethora of new technologies in many different sectors. There is a need to holistically evaluate these new technologies in a standardized and consistent manner to determine which technologies will be the most successful and competitive in the global marketplace to achieve decarbonization targets. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA) have been employed as rigorous methodologies for quantitatively measuring a technology's environmental impacts and techno-economic performance, respectively. However, these metrics evaluate a technology's performance in only three dimensions and do not directly incorporate stakeholder needs and values. In addition, technology developers frequently encounter trade-offs during design that increase one metric at the expense of the other. The technology performance level (TPL) combined indicator provides a comprehensive and holistic assessment of an emerging technology's potential, which is described by its techno-economic performance, environmental impacts, social impacts, safety considerations, market/deployability opportunities, use integration impacts, and general risks. TPL incorporates TEA and LCA outputs and quantifies the trade-offs between them directly using stakeholder feedback and requirements. In this article, the TPL methodology is being adapted from the marine energy domain to the CCUS domain. Adapted metrics and definitions, a stakeholder analysis, and a detailed foundation-based application of the systems engineering approach to CCUS are presented. The TPL assessment framework is couched within the internationally standardized LCA framework to improve technical rigor and acceptance. It is demonstrated how stakeholder needs and values can be directly incorporated, how LCA and TEA metrics can be balanced, and how other dimensions (listed earlier) can be integrated into a single metric that measures a technology's potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Expert Elicitation for Wave Energy LCOE Futures

As the world faces increasing threats from climate change, the importance of developing renewable energy technologies and reducing their costs have similarly increased. Marine energy technologies (which include wave, tidal, ocean current, ocean thermal and salinity gradient resources) are often referred to as the most nascent and newest suite of renewable technologies under development. There are vast marine energy resources available around the world and within U.S. territorial waters, and as the technologies have continued to develop, the long-term trajectory of cost reductions and performance improvements is of particular interest. This study specifically investigates the long-term cost reduction potential for commercial wave energy technologies, as wave energy represents the largest marine energy resource available to the continental U.S. Similar studies focused on other resources and technologies may follow in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Total cost of ownership of vehicle electrification and fuel switching options for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles

Projecting the transition from combustion engines to battery-based powertrains is complex becuase it involves numerous interdependent decisions. This study estimates total cost of ownership (TCO) to assess the economic viability of powertrain electrification, focusing exclusively on advances in vehicle and fuel technologies. Under two bounding technology-progress scenarios, we develop vehicle designs and fuel cost trajectories, which serve as inputs to TCO projections for selected classes from 2021 to 2050. We analyzed a small sport utility vehicle (SUV) to represent the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, and four medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) classes: Class 6 box delivery, Class 8 drayage, Class 8 long-haul, and Class 8 transit bus. For each class, we compared the TCO of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEVs) against conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The results show that modern ICEVs generally have lower TCO; however, BEVs and FCHEVs could match or have lower TCOs than ICEVs over time, depending on technological progress. In LDVs, BEV300 is projected to deliver the lowest TCO by 2050, particularly under the high-progress scenario. In MHDVs, both BEVs and FCHEVs could become more cost-competitive than ICEVs by 2050 in the high-progress case. Beyond these results, the findings suggest further investigation is warranted for BEV charging infrastructure, FCHEV hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and MHDV charging strategies. In conclusion, these factors could reduce the fuel-cost share of TCO and enhance the competitiveness of BEVs and FCHEVs relative to ICEVs.

Battery electric vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2023

0BGRaman: Graph Network based Simulator for Forecasting Molecular Polarizability

This report presents the work performed under the GRaman project, sponsored by the PCSD LDRD Seed program. The project aimed at accelerating ab initio molecular dynamics simulation using Graph Networks. The Graph Network framework is a ML framework that has been successfully employed to simulate the dynamics of several physical systems: including water splashing in a container and flags moving with the wind. In this effort, we performed a data collection campaign for 3 different molecules of interest. We have built tools for preprocessing the trajectories obtained by simulating Raman Spectroscopy with NWChem and translating them into a suitable format for training. We have developed a training algorithm to train the Graph Network based simulators based on our data and developed a simulator that produces trajectories in the same NWChem format. While the tool has improved with each iteration of development and subsequent experiments, the current state of the tool does not allow to directly incorporate the technology within the NWChem framework because the trajectories produced by the tool are not yet accurate enough. However, the technology has proved to have good potential and it is certainly worth further research and development.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Room-temperature fabrication of garnet-type solid-electrolyte: Optimizing particle size for high ionic conductivity

Dense and uniform Li 6.25 Al 0.25 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (Al-doped LLZO) solid-electrolyte film of ~24 µm thickness is successfully fabricated by room temperature aerosol deposition (AD) method. The process optimization study revealed that careful control of particle size and morphology is one of critical determinants in the development of a compact AD membrane. Notably, our method facilitated an impressive ionic conductivity of approximately 10 –5 S cm –1 , bypassing the necessity for post-annealing processes, a milestone in itself. However, it is hypothesized that the attained conductivity is somewhat restrained by factors such as smaller grain size and potential surface degradation due to moisture exposure during fabrication, indicating avenues for further research. Looking forward, detailed investigations into the film's microstructure and its impact on transport properties will be a focal point, alongside potential enhancements through post-annealing and particle coating strategies. Finally, this research hints at a promising trajectory for the development of high-efficiency solid-state battery technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Controlling beam trajectory and transport in a tapered helical undulator

In this paper we present a detailed discussion of the helical undulator system developed for high extraction efficiency experiments in the tapered-enhanced stimulated superradiant amplification regime. The design is based on permanent magnet technology and comprises two Halbach arrays orthogonally oriented and shifted by 90° with respect to each other. When used in low energy beamlines for THz generation, the electron beam trajectory and transport are particularly sensitive to the undulator off-axis fields so that it becomes important to complement on-axis field measurements with analysis and tuning of the higher-order field components. Here we describe how the pulsed wire measurement technique can be effectively used to retrieve on- and off-axis magnetic field characteristics of the undulator. A simple two-dipole model is developed to guide the final adjustments to the permanent magnet positions along the array to tune the quadrupole and sextupole components of the field.

free-electron lasers↗

DOE OSTI2025

Keeping LAMMPS cutting edge

Since its inception 30 years ago, LAMMPS has grown to be a world-class molecular dynamics code and a cornerstone of computational materials science research. This project aimed to keep LAMMPS at the forefront of molecular dynamics simulations by adapting LAMMPS to the latest developments in machine learning technology and hardware. Initially, the project set out to provide a unified implementation of active learning for efficient training data generation in LAMMPS, but the research trajectory pivoted to address more immediate and impactful opportunities. On the hardware side, recent record-breaking molecular dynamics simulations were developed on the Cerebras wafer-scale AI chip, and this project has developed an interface between LAMMPS and the hardware-specific molecular dynamics code to accelerate and simplify development and user adoption. On the software side, PyTorch’s Ahead-of-Time (AOT) compilation features promised increased performance for state-of-the-art equivariant neural network potentials, and this project laid the groundwork for their adoption in LAMMPS, resulting in a nearly 20x acceleration in extreme cases. Combined with a comprehensive benchmark study of LAMMPS across all current exascale systems, this project has reinforced LAMMPS’s role as a versatile, high-performance tool for current and future materials science applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Uncertainty in the Technical Performance Level Assessment for Wave Energy

In recent years, the design and development of wave energy converters (WECs) has been explored with intense interest, with highly varying design concepts emerging globally across both research enterprises and industry. The design space for WECs is vast - many concepts ranging in functionality, control systems, power development systems, materials, and scale have been ideated and prototyped, but WEC technology has yet to converge. One critical element of the technology trajectory that governs the speed of adoption is the performance of a WEC concept. In analogous but more-established industries (such as aerospace, and environmentally sustainable electronics design), performance assessment is a quantitative method, based on historical data, that is used as an iterative tool to improve the design of these systems early on in the design process. Though more nascent than these approaches, in wave energy R&D, WEC performance has been assessed using the Technology Performance Level (TPL) assessment, which provides designers with a quantitative score, situating a grid-scale WEC concept on a scale from 1-9 (1 being the lowest performance, and 9 being the highest, trending with the oft-used Technology Readiness Level, or TRL). The TPL assessment is designed to be used during design iteration, when a WEC concept is fully ideated, to enable designers to consider potential means of improving the downstream performance of the concept. One concern that may be slowing the adoption of TPL among WEC developers is the inherent uncertainty in the assessment, and how uncertainty in the individual questions asked as part of the assessment may contribute to perceived inaccuracies in the final score. In this work, we explore the uncertainty present in the assessment and quantify this uncertainty using both traditional mathematical operations and a Monte Carlo simulation. Results imply areas of improvement of the TPL assessment, where reducing uncertainty will be most helpful to end users, enabling both TPL practitioners and users to understand with more accuracy those design elements that can be improved to impact device performance most substantively.

techno-economic analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuelbased plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuel-based plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Calorimetric classification of track-like signatures in liquid argon TPCs using MicroBooNE data

The MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber located at Fermilab is a neutrino experiment dedicated to the study of short-baseline oscillations, the measurements of neutrino cross sections in liquid argon, and to the research and development of this novel detector technology. Accurate and precise measurements of calorimetry are essential to the event reconstruction and are achieved by leveraging the TPC to measure deposited energy per unit length along the particle trajectory, with mm resolution. We describe the non-uniform calorimetric reconstruction performance in the detector, showing dependence on the angle of the particle trajectory. Such non-uniform reconstruction directly affects the performance of the particle identification algorithms which infer particle type from calorimetric measurements. This work presents a new particle identification method which accounts for and effectively addresses such non-uniformity. The newly developed method shows improved performance compared to previous algorithms, illustrated by a 93.7% proton selection efficiency and a 10% muon mis-identification rate, with a fairly loose selection of tracks performed on beam data. The performance is further demonstrated by identifying exclusive final states in ν μ CC interactions. While developed using MicroBooNE data and simulation, this method is easily applicable to future LArTPC experiments, such as SBND, ICARUS, and DUNE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗