Potentialities and dangers of technological evolution
Potentialities and dangers of technological evolution
INDUSTRY↗
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Robotic technology evolution and transfer
A report concerning technology transfer in the area of robotics is presented in vugraph form. The following topics are discussed: definition of technology innovation and tech-transfer; concepts relevant for understanding tech-transfer; models advanced to portray tech-transfer process; factors identified as promoting tech-transfer; factors identified as impeding tech-transfer; what important roles do individuals fulfill in tech-transfer; federal infrastructure for promoting tech-transfer; federal infrastructure for promoting tech-transfer; robotic technology evolution; robotic technology transferred; and recommendations for successful robotics tech-transfer.
Marzwell, Neville I.↗
Space Station Displays and Controls Technology Evolution
Viewgraphs on space station displays and controls technology evolution are presented. Topics covered include: a historical perspective; major development objectives; current development activities; key technology areas; and technology evolution issues.
Blackburn, Greg C.↗
Technological evolution of large-scale blue hydrogen production toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot
Hydrogen potentially has a crucial role in the U.S. transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Learning from large-scale hydrogen projects will boost technological evolution and innovation toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot. We apply experience curves to estimate the evolving costs of blue hydrogen production and to further examine the economic effect on technological evolution of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits for carbon sequestration and clean hydrogen. Learning-by-doing alone can decrease the production cost of blue hydrogen. Without tax incentives, however, it is hard for blue hydrogen production to reach the cost target of $\$1$/kg H 2 . Here we show that the breakeven cumulative production capacity required for gas-based blue hydrogen to reach the $\$1$/kg H 2 target highly depends on tax credit, natural gas price, inflation rate, and learning rates. We make recommendations for hydrogen hub development and for accelerating technological progress toward the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot.
08 HYDROGEN↗
US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 2: Fiber optic technology and long distance networks
The study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.
Source record↗
Photovoltaic (PV) Module Technologies: 2020 Benchmark Costs and Technology Evolution Framework Results
This report benchmarks 2020 PV module minimum sustainable price (MSP) via bottom-up manufacturing cost analysis, for established PV technologies in mass production, including crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium (di)selenide. We provide technology roadmaps to additional MSP reductions for these PV technologies. Separately, we consider III-V and perovskite PV technologies which are currently in small-scale or pilot production. Finally, this report uses a technology evolution framework (TEF) to analyze drivers of levelized cost of energy reductions, including installed system cost - which is heavily influenced by module price - as well as service life and annual energy yield.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Achieving cost reductions in EOSDIS operations through technology evolution
The earth observing system (EOS) data information system (EOSDIS) mission includes the cost-effective management and distribution of large amounts of data to the earth science community. The effect of the introduction of new information system technologies on the evolution of EOSDIS is considered. One of the steps taken by NASA to enable the introduction of new information system technologies into the EOSDIS is the funding of technology development through prototyping. Recent and ongoing prototyping efforts and their potential impact on the performance and cost-effectiveness of the EOSDIS are discussed. The technology evolution process as it related to the effective operation of EOSDIS is described, and methods are identified for the support of the transfer of relevant technology to EOSDIS components.
Newsome, Penny↗
PV in the circular economy, a dynamic framework analyzing technology evolution and reliability impacts
Rapid, terawatt-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) modules is required to decarbonize the energy sector. Despite efficiency and manufacturing improvements, material demand will increase, eventually resulting in waste as deployed modules reach end of life. Circular choices for decommissioned modules could reduce waste and offset virgin materials. We present PV ICE, an open-source python framework using modern reliability data, which tracks module material flows throughout PV life cycles. We provide dynamic baselines capturing PV module and material evolution. PV ICE includes multimodal end of life, circular pathways, and manufacturing losses. We present a validation of the framework and a sensitivity analysis. Results show that manufacturing efficiencies strongly affect material demand, representing >20% of the 9 million tons of waste cumulatively expected by 2050. Reliability and circular pathways represent the best opportunities to reduce waste by 56% while maintaining installed capacity. Shorter-lived modules generate 81% more waste and reduce 2050 capacity by 6%.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 1: Executive summary
Over the past two decades, fiber optics has emerged as a highly practical and cost-efficient communications technology. Its competitiveness vis-a-vis other transmission media, especially satellite, has become a critical question. This report studies the likely evolution and application of fiber optic networks in the United States to the end of the century. The outlook for the technology of fiber systems is assessed and forecast, scenarios of the evolution of fiber optic network development are constructed, and costs to provide service are determined and examined parametrically as a function of network size and traffic carried. Volume 1 consists of the Executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic technology and long distance fiber optic networks. Volume 3 develops a traffic and financial model of a nationwide long distance transmission network. Among the study's most important conclusions are: revenue requirements per circuit for LATA-to-LATA fiber optic links are less than one cent per call minute; multiplex equipment, which is likely to be required in any competing system, is the largest contributor to circuit costs; the potential capacity of fiber optic cable is very large and as yet undefined; and fiber optic transmission combined with other network optimization schemes can lead to even lower costs than those identified in this study.
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ISS ECLSS Technology Evolution for Exploration
The baseline environmental control and life support systems (ECLSS) currently deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) and the regenerative oxygen generation and water reclamation systems to be added in 2008 are based on technologies selected during the early 1990's. While they are generally meeting, or exceeding requirements for supporting the ISS crew, lessons learned from hardware development and on orbit experience, together with advances in technology state of the art, and the unique requirements for future manned exploration missions prompt consideration of the next steps to be taken to evolve these technologies to improve robustness and reliability, enhance performance, and reduce resource requirements such as power and logistics upmass. This paper discusses the current state of ISS ECLSS technology and identifies possible areas for evolutionary enhancement or improvement.
Carrasquillo, Robyn L.↗
US long distance fiber optic networks: Technology, evolution and advanced concepts. Volume 3: Advanced networks and economics
This study projects until 2000 the evolution of long distance fiber optic networks in the U.S. Volume 1 is the executive Summary. Volume 2 focuses on fiber optic components and systems that are directly related to the operation of long-haul networks. Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios of technology development are presented. The activities of national and regional companies implementing fiber long haul networks are also highlighted, along with an analysis of the market and regulatory forces affecting network evolution. Volume 3 presents advanced fiber optic network concept definitions. Inter-LATA traffic is quantified and forms the basis for the construction of 11-, 15-, 17-, and 23-node networks. Using the technology projections from Volume 2, a financial model identifies cost drivers and determines circuit mile costs between any two LATAs. A comparison of fiber optics with alternative transmission concludes the report.
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ISS ECLSS Technology Evolution for Exploration
The baseline environmental control and life support systems (ECLSS) currently deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) and the regenerative oxygen generation and water early 1990's. While they are generally meeting, or exceeding requirements for supporting the ISS crew, lessons learned from hardware development and on orbit experience, together with advances in technology state of the art, and th&e unique requirements for future manned exploration missions prompt consideration of the next steps to be taken to evolve these technologies to improve robustness and reliability, enhance performance, and reduce resource requirements such as power and logistics upmass This paper discusses the current state of ISS ECLSS technology and identifies possible areas for evolutionary enhancement or improvement.
Carrasquillo, Robyn↗
Mechanisms of hardware and soft technology evolution and the implications for solar energy cost trends
Not provided.
Energy & Fuels↗
Interactive computer aided technology, evolution in the design/manufacturing process
A powerful computer-operated three dimensional graphic system and associated auxiliary computer equipment used in advanced design, production design, and manufacturing was described. This system has made these activities more productive than when using older and more conventional methods to design and build aerospace vehicles. With the use of this graphic system, designers are now able to define parts using a wide variety of geometric entities, define parts as fully surface 3-dimensional models as well as "wire-frame" models. Once geometrically defined, the designer is able to take section cuts of the surfaced model and automatically determine all of the section properties of the planar cut, lightpen detect all of the surface patches and automatically determine the volume and weight of the part. Further, his designs are defined mathematically at a degree of accuracy never before achievable.
English, C. H.↗
Initial assessments of life support technology evolution and advanced sensor requirements, volume 2, appendix A
The primary issues studied were how the transition from a physical/chemical (P/C) to hybrid to a Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) could be achieved, what sensors and monitors are needed for a P/C -CELSS hybrid system, and how a CELSS could be automated and what controls would be needed to do so.
Montgomery, Edward E.↗
Superconducting Technologies: Exploring the Evolution of Superconducting Technology, from Applications in Particle Accelerators to Cutting-Edge Advancements in Quantum Computing
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46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study
The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA's Role in Aeronautics: A Workshop. Volume 1: Summary
The state of the U.S. aeronautic industry and progressive changes in national priorities as reflected in federal unified budget outlays are reviewed as well as the contribution of NACA and the character and substance of U.S. aeronautical research under NASA. Eight possible roles for the future defined by NASA are examined and the extent to which the agency should carry out these activities is considered. The roles include: (1) national facilities expertise; (2) flight sciences research; (3) generic technology evolution; (4) vehicle class evolution; (5) technology demonstration; (6) prototype development; (7) technology validation; and (8) operations feasibility; How NASA's roles varies in the areas of military aviation, general aviation, transport aircraft aeronautics, rotorcraft aeronautics, engineering education, information dissemination, and cooperation with other organizations and agencies is discussed with regard to research in aerodynamics; structures and materials; propulsion; electronics and avionics; vehicle operations; and human engineering.
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