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Technology Scouting Report: Reliability Implications of Recent PV Module Technology Trends
This webinar links recent and anticipated PV module technology trends - such as the transition to n-type cells, increasing module sizes, and new encapsulants - with potential increases and reductions in reliability risk. Market trends are drawn from industry data and projections, and corresponding reliability implications are synthesized from interviews with researchers and industry experts. The webinar is an interim step toward developing a technology scouting report.
Electric Drive Technology Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities for Future Electric Vehicles
The transition to electric road transport technologies requires electric traction drive systems to offer improved performances and capabilities, such as fuel efficiency (in terms of MPGe, i.e., miles per gallon of gasoline-equivalent), extended range, and fast-charging options. The enhanced electrification and transformed mobility are translating to a demand for higher power and more efficient electric traction drive systems that lead to better fuel economy for a given battery charge. To accelerate the mass-market adoption of electrified transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in collaboration with the automotive industry, has announced the technical targets for light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) for 2025. This article discusses the electric drive technology trends for passenger electric and hybrid EVs with commercially available solutions in terms of materials, electric machine and inverter designs, maximum speed, component cooling, power density, and performance. Additionally, the emerging materials and technologies for power electronics and electric motors are presented, identifying the challenges and opportunities for even more aggressive designs to meet the need for next-generation EVs. Some innovative drive and motor designs with the potential to meet the DOE 2025 targets are also discussed.
International review of market trends, technologies and policies for commercial refrigeration equipment and implications for China
This report reviews the latest global and China-specific market trends as well as latest technology and policy trends related to commercial refrigeration equipment, with emphasis on refrigerated display cabinets. Section 2 reviews the global and China market trends for commercial refrigeration equipment. Section 3 presents the latest technology options for improving energy performance and compares global Best Available Technologies (BAT) to regional and China-specific baselines, and discusses low-GWP refrigerant options for commercial refrigeration equipment. Section 4 reviews global energy efficiency standards and labeling programs, and compares international efficiency standard requirements with China’s proposed and existing standard requirements. Section 5 ends with a review of key findings and conclusions.
Recent UAS and Counter-UAS Industry Technology Trends and Developments.
Abstract not provided.
Utility-Scale Solar: Empirical Trends in Project Technology, Cost, Performance, and PPA Pricing in the United States – 2018 Edition
The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2017, the utility-scale sector accounted for nearly 60% of all new solar capacity, and is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another six years. Two-thirds of all states, representing all regions of the country, are now home to one or more utility-scale solar projects. This report—the sixth in an ongoing annual series—provides in-depth data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes technology trends, installed project prices, operating costs, capacity factors, power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), and the market value of solar. Given its current preeminence in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate. Highlights from this year's edition include: -Installation and Technology Trends: The use of solar trackers dominated 2017 installations with nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the high-insolation Southwest, the median insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2017. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio grew to 1.32 in 2017, allowing the inverters to operate closer to full capacity for a greater percentage of the day. -Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices have steadily fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.0/WAC (or $1.6/WDC) for projects completed in 2017. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2017 sample were priced at or below $1.8/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $0.9/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample has decreased steadily every year since 2013; similarly, price variation across regions decreased in 2017. -Operation and Maintenance ("O&M") Costs: PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $16/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2017. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant. -Capacity Factors: The cumulative net AC capacity factors of individual projects vary widely, from 14.3% to 35.2%, with a sample median of 26.3%. This project-level variation is based on a number of factors, including the strength of the solar resource at the project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the inverter loading ratio, degradation, and curtailment. Changes in at least the first three of these factors drove mean capacity factors higher from 2010-vintage to 2013-vintage projects, where they've remained fairly steady among more-recent project vintages as an ongoing increase in the prevalence of tracking has been offset by a build-out of lower resource sites. -PPA Prices and LCOE: Driven by lower installed project prices and improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time, by $20-$30/MWh per year on average from 2006 through 2012, with a smaller price decline of ~$10/MWh per year evident from 2013 through 2016. Most recent PPAs in our sample—including many outside of California and the Southwest—are priced at or below $40/MWh levelized (in real 2017 dollars), with a few priced as aggressively as ~$20/MWh. The median LCOE among operational PV projects in our sample has followed PPA prices lower, suggesting a relatively competitive market for PPAs. -Solar's Wholesale Energy Market Value: Falling PPA prices have been offset to some degree by a decline in the wholesale energy market value of solar within higher-penetration markets like California, where solar earned just 79% of the average price across all hours within CAISO's real-time wholesale energy market in 2017 (down from 125% back in 2012). In other markets with less solar penetration, however, solar's hourly generation profile still earns more than the average wholesale price (e.g., 127% in ERCOT, 112% in PJM). -Solar+Storage: Adding battery storage is one way to at least partially restore the value of solar, and three recent PV+storage PPAs in Nevada (each using 4-hour batteries sized at 25% of PV nameplate capacity) suggest that the incremental PPA price adder for storage has fallen to ~$5/MWh, down from ~$15/MWh just a year ago for a similarly configured project. As PV plus battery storage becomes more cost-effective, a number of developers are regularly offering it as a viable upgrade to standalone PV. At the end of 2017, there were at least 188.5 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation. The 2017 growth within these queues is widely distributed across all regions of the country, but is most pronounced in the up-and-coming Midwest region, which accounts for 27% of the 99.2 GW of new queue capacity. The widening geographic distribution is as clear of a sign as any that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones.
Follow-Up from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW): Cost Modeling Capabilities to Evaluate Trends in PV Technologies
NREL's Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) team reviews live polling results from the Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) related to module technology trends believed to have the greatest reliability impacts. Then, the team reviews the publicly available tools and inputs necessary for evaluating reliability tradeoffs between initial module and system costs, degradation profiles, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE). These tools include the online Detailed Cost Analysis Models (DCAM) and the DuraMAT LCOE calculator.
Utility-Scale Solar: Empirical Trends in Project Technology, Cost, Performance, and PPA Pricing in the United States (2019 Ed.)
The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2018, the utility-scale sector accounted for nearly 60% of all new solar capacity, and is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another six years. More than three-quarters of all states, representing all regions of the country, are now home to one or more utility-scale solar projects. This report—the seventh in an ongoing annual series—provides in-depth data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes technology trends, installed project prices, operating costs, capacity factors, power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), and the market value of solar. The report also includes data and observations about completed or recently announced solar+storage projects. Given its current preeminence in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate.
Technological diffusion trends suggest a more equitable future for rooftop solar in the United States
Abstract Equity has become central in the academic and regulatory discourse shaping the future of residential-scale clean energy technologies in the United States, particularly rooftop solar. Here, we develop a holistic perspective on these issues by analyzing rooftop solar adoption trends using two alternative forecasting methods: an inside-view forecast based on historical solar adoption data, and an outside-view forecast based on adoption data for other emerging consumer technologies. We show how rooftop solar, like other emerging consumer technologies, has become more equitably adopted over time. We show that solar diffusion patterns are largely consistent with those of other technologies. Both forecasting methods suggest that clean energy technologies should be expected to become more equitably adopted over time. Policy could accelerate this process by supporting low-income adoption without unduly curbing overall diffusion.
Condition monitoring of wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies, recent trends, and future outlook
As global wind capacity expands, reducing operations and maintenance costs is critical to lowering the levelized cost of energy. This paper explores the state of the art in condition monitoring and prognostic strategies for wind turbine drivetrains, which are among the most failure-prone and maintenance-intensive subsystems. Current diagnostic methodologies are evaluated, covering supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, high-frequency vibration and acoustic analysis, machine learning and digital twin frameworks. Finally, practical challenges are identified that limit wide-scale industrial adoption, in order to guide future research and industrial efforts.
Emerging Trends and Technologies Used for the Identification, Detection, and Characterisation of Plant-Parasitic Nematode Infestation in Crops
Accurate identification and estimation of the population densities of microscopic, soil-dwelling plant-parasitic nematodes (PPNs) are essential, as PPNs cause significant economic losses in agricultural production systems worldwide. This study presents a comprehensive review of emerging techniques used for the identification of PPNs, including morphological identification, molecular diagnostics such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), high-throughput sequencing, meta barcoding, remote sensing, hyperspectral analysis, and image processing. Classical morphological methods require a microscope and nematode taxonomist to identify species, which is laborious and time-consuming. Alternatively, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has emerged as a reliable and efficient approach for PPN identification and quantification; however, the cost associated with the reagents, instrumentation, and careful optimisation of reaction conditions can be prohibitive. High-throughput sequencing and meta-barcoding are used to study the biodiversity of all tropical groups of nematodes, not just PPNs, and are useful for describing changes in soil ecology. Convolutional neural network (CNN) methods are necessary to automate the detection and counting of PPNs from microscopic images, including complex cases like tangled nematodes. Remote sensing and hyperspectral methods offer non-invasive approaches to estimate nematode infestations and facilitate early diagnosis of plant stress caused by nematodes and rapid management of PPNs. This review provides a valuable resource for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers involved in nematology and plant protection. It highlights the importance of fast, efficient, and robust identification protocols and decision-support tools in mitigating the impact of PPNs on global agriculture and food security.
Sustainable Manufacturing - Technology: Opportunities, Trends, and Technoeconomic Analysis
This poster, presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Manufacturing Office Peer Review Meeting in June 2019, discusses sustainable manufacturing opportunities, trends, and technoeconomic analysis.
Technoeconomic Analysis (TEA)
Techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the DuraMAT Consortium includes the following areas: linking solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends to reliability implications; providing a framework to calculate technology costs, yielding insights useful for research decision-making, proposals, technology selection, and publications; and examining technology tradeoffs considering lifecycle project economics. This poster highlights results from the first and second iterations of the DuraMAT Technology Scouting reports as well as the updated Simplified PV Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Calculator.
Challenges in synthesis of heterostructures
Developing the ability to reproducibly prepare materials drives the advancement of human technology. Trends in historical advances and extrapolation of current technologies suggest that the next logical step is developing the ability to control structure and composition at near atomic scales in device manufacturing to take advantage of emergent properties discovered in 2D materials and heterostructures. This article reviews a subset of synthetic approaches used to prepare heterostructures, outlining key reaction steps, and how experimental parameters are used to control which product forms. The positive attributes of each synthesis approach are discussed along with some of their limitations. The elemental reactant (MER) approach is discussed in more depth.
Future Online Analysis Platform Workshop Report
Recent technology trends, such as the increasing focus on data management technologies and the emergence of sustainable on-demand computing and commercial cloud facilities provide initial steps and potential building blocks for creating such a compute facility. How do we fill the gap between what we have now and the capabilities we need to make the vision of an online data facility a reality? What research challenges need to be addressed – and can be addressed – in the coming 5-10 years? How should we adjust our vision if they are not solved? Is such a facility compatible with the existing and evolving exascale resources and/or how should they evolve to be compatible? How do “beyond Moore’s law” technologies enable advanced data analysis? Those are the challeges that the Future Platform workshop was organized to address. This report is organized as follows. Section 2 summarizes data challenges and patterns related to the exemplar use cases presented during the first half day of the workshop. Section 3 summarizes the requirements presented by those use cases as well as a synthesis of those requirements into a Future Platform definition achieved on the 3rd half day of the workshop (morning of the 2nd day). Section 4 includes area breakout reports from the areas on the 2nd half day of the workshop (afternoon of the 1st day). Finally Section 5 has a report on recommendation for building methodology and metrics. The report concludes in Section 6.
Driving the Shift to Energy-Efficient and Climate-Responsible Commercial Refrigeration Equipment in Chile
This report provides an overview of global and Chile-specific market trends, technological advancements, and policy developments related to commercial refrigeration equipment, with an emphasis on refrigerated display cabinets. Section 2 examines CRE market trends at the global and Chilean levels. Section 3 presents CRE energy consumption and the latest technological options for improving energy performance. It also discusses low global warming potential (GWP)1 refrigerant options for CRE. Section 4 provides a cost-effectiveness analysis. Section 5 reviews other regional energy efficiency standards and labeling programs and offers potential standard requirements for Chile. Section 6 concludes the report by summarizing key findings and conclusions. Finally, Appendix A provides detailed guidelines intended as a starting point to inform policies and programmes.
Results of Application Demonstration of Autonomous Offshore Power System Supporting Multiple Mobile and Static Assets
Over the last decade, several technology trends have dominated the innovation cycle within the terrestrial economy. Electrification, cloud computing, decarbonization, digitization, and autonomy are representative examples of macro trends that have had a rapid and fundamental impact; an impact felt not only in user-facing technologies, such as electric vehicles and software-as-a-service, but also in the infrastructure required to deliver those technologies. However, the scale of the impact and rollout has not been felt equally between the terrestrial and ocean economies. Here, the innovation cycle in the ocean economy is significantly slower. What accounts for the difference and are there solutions to this issue?
IEA PVPS Task 13 Techno-Economic Study of Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems on Single Axis Trackers
The International Energy Agency PVPS Task 13 has assembled an international team of photovoltaic (PV) researchers from government labs, academia, and industry to study the specific application of bifacial PV modules deployed on tracking systems. This configuration is of particular interest as it has been identified as the PV system design with the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for over 90% of the world [1]. As such, much research, development, and commercial activity are focused on further optimizing this system design for different regions and markets, including field deployment and advanced modeling activities. Despite these efforts, many challenges remain to overcome with this system design. This conference paper will report on several areas the team is working on as part of this project. The first part of this study focuses on extensive interviews with PV tracker companies (we have identified 35) and customers worldwide to identify emerging technology trends, design diversity, market environments, and the reliability and performance of these systems. We will provide a market summary of technologies such as advanced tracking algorithms, methods for dealing with topography within the PV plant, different system configurations and layouts, backside irradiance optimization from albedo enhancement, and ground sculpting. We will also review dual-use applications of tracked bifacial systems, such as Agrivoltaics and Building-Integrated PV. These interviews are underway now, and we will be able to report our initial findings at the conference. The second part of the study focuses on summarizing performance monitoring and evaluation methods, with particular attention to capacity and acceptance testing for such systems. The third part of the study reviews performance modeling and yield assessment methods for these tracked bifacial PV systems. The final part of the study covers reliability and operations, and maintenance data from these systems.