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At least 19 records

GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Change

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change for the period 1880-1999 based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change was higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 was too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino. Despite cooling in the first half of 1999, we suggest that the mean global temperature, averaged over 2-3 years, has moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. Warming in the United States over the past 50 years has been smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there was a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic Ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism was involved in this regional cooling. The cooling trend in the United States, which began after the 1930s and is associated with ocean temperature change patterns, began to reverse after 1979. We suggest that further warming in the United States to a level rivaling the 1930s is likely in the next decade, but reliable prediction requires better understanding of decadal oscillations of ocean temperature.

Hansen, J.↗

GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Changes

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change is higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 is too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino, suggesting that global temperature may have moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. The warming in the United States over the past 50 years is smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there is a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism is involved in this regional cooling.

Hansen, J.↗

On the causes of temperature change in inhomogeneous low-density astrophysical plasmas

The temperature changes that are possible in inhomogeneous low-density astrophysical plasmas were investigated for a variety of boundary distribution functions that occur in astrophysics, with emphasis placed on the spatial changes in temperature and their correlations with those of the density caused by time-independent, but spatially varying, conservative potentials. It is proven that decelerating forces produce equilibrium temperatures that are anticorrelated with densities, provided that the boundary condition is non-Maxwellian, and the proof is extended analytically for a generalized Lorentzian distribution, showing that they obey a polytrope relation with the value of gamma between 0 and l.

Scudder, Jack D.↗

A dynamic model for plant growth: validation study under changing temperatures

A dynamic simulation model to describe vegetative growth of plants, for which some functions and parameter values have been estimated previously by optimization search techniques and numerical experimentation based on data from constant temperature experiments, is validated under conditions of changing temperatures. To test the predictive capacity of the model, dry matter accumulation in the leaves, stems, and roots of tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L.) was measured at 2- or 3-day intervals during a 5-week period when temperatures in controlled-environment rooms were programmed for changes at weekly and daily intervals and in ascending or descending sequences within a range of 14 to 34 degrees C. Simulations of dry matter accumulation and distribution were carried out using the programmed changes for experimental temperatures and compared with the measured values. The agreement between measured and predicted values was close and indicates that the temperature-dependent functional forms derived from constant-temperature experiments are adequate for modelling plant growth responses to conditions of changing temperatures with switching intervals as short as 1 day.

NASA Discipline Number 60-40↗

Embedded Temperature-Change Sensors

Transducers sensitive to rates of change of temperature embedded in integrated circuits and discrete electronic components damaged by overheating, according to proposal. Used to detect onset of rapid heating and to trigger shutoffs of power or other corrective actions before temperatures rise beyond safe limits. Sensors respond fast and reliably to incipient overheating because they are in direct thermal contact with vulnerable circuit elements.

Thakoor, Sarita↗

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change: Relative Importance of Low- and High-Latitude Temperature Changes - 2

Using a variety of GCM experiments with various versions of the GISS model, we investigate how different aspects of tropospheric climate changes affect the extratropical Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation indices. The results show that low altitude changes in the extratropical latitudinal temperature gradient can have a strong impact on eddy forcing of the extratropical zonal wind, in the sense that when this latitudinal temperature gradient increases, it helps force a more negative AO/NAO phase. In addition, local conditions at high latitudes can stabilize/destabilize the atmosphere, inducing negative/positive phase changes. To the extent that there is not a large temperature change in the tropical upper troposphere (either through reduced tropical sensitivity at the surface, or limited transport of this change to high levels), the changes in the low level temperature gradient can provide the dominate influence on the extratropical circulation, so that planetary wave meridional refraction and eddy angular momentum transport changes become uncorrelated with potential vorticity transports. In particular, the climate change that produces the most positive NAO phase change would have substantial warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the Pacific Ocean, with high latitude warming in the North Atlantic. An increase in positive phase of these circulation indices is still more likely than not, but it will depend on the degree of tropical and high latitude temperature response and the transport of low level warming into the upper troposphere. These are aspects that currently differ among the models used for predicting the effects of global warning, contributing to the lack of consensus of future changes in the AO/NAO.

Rind, D.↗

Influence of temperature change on optimum laminate design

Results of a laminate optimization study, which includes prescribed temperature change and mechanical loading conditions, are presented. Minimum-weight designs for balanced symmetric laminates are obtained subject to strength, membrane stiffness, and minimum thickness requirements, while including and omitting temperature change effects. Based on a first ply failure design philosophy and employing a linear thermoelastic analysis, it is shown that taking temperature decrease effects into account leads to substantial weight penalties in strength critical fiber composite laminates. Numerical results are presented for representative fiber composite materials based on three commonly used combined stress failure criteria.

Schmit, L. A., Jr.↗

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

North America↗

Buckling and postbuckling of composite panels with cutouts subjected to combined edge shear and temperature change

The results of a detailed study of the buckling and postbuckling responses of composite panels with central circular cutouts are presented. The panels are subjected to combined edge shear and temperature change. The panels are discretized by using a two-field degenerate solid element with each of the displacement components having a linear variation throughout the thickness of the panel. The fundamental unknowns consist of the average mechanical strains through the thickness and the displacement components. The effects of geometric nonlinearities and laminated anisotropic material behavior are included. The stability boundary, postbuckling response and the hierarchical sensitivity coefficients are evaluated. The hierarchical sensitivity coefficients measure the sensitivity of the buckling and postbuckling responses to variations in the panel stiffnesses, and the material properties of both the individual layers and the constituents (fibers and matrix). Numerical results are presented for composite panels with central circular cutouts subjected to combined edge shear and temperature change, showing the effects of variations in the hole diameter, laminate stacking sequence and fiber orientation, on the stability boundary and postbuckling response and their sensitivity to changes in the various panel parameters.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

Stresses and deformations in cross-ply composite tubes subjected to a uniform temperature change

This study investigates the effects of a uniform temperature change on the stresses and deformations of composite tubes and determines the accuracy of an approximate solution based on the principle of complementary virtual work. Interest centers on tube response away from the ends and so a planar elasticity approach is used. For the approximate solution a piecewise linear variation of stresses with the radial coordinate is assumed. The results from the approximate solution are compared with the elasticity solution. The stress predictions agree well, particularly peak interlaminar stresses. Surprisingly, the axial deformations also agree well, despite the fact that the deformations predicted by the approximate solution do not satisfy the interface displacement continuity conditions required by the elasticity solution. The study shows that the axial thermal expansion coefficient of tubes with a specific number of axial and circumferential layers depends on the stacking sequence. This is in contrast to classical lamination theory, which predicts that the expansion will be independent of the stacking arrangement. As expected, the sign and magnitude of the peak interlaminar stresses depend on stacking sequence. For tubes with a specific number of axial and circumferential layers, thermally induced interlaminar stresses can be controlled by altering stacking arrangement.

Hyer, M. W.↗

Stresses and deformations in cross-ply composite tubes subjected to a uniform temperature change: Elasticity and Approximate Solutions

The effects of a uniform temperature change on the stresses and deformations of composite tubes are investigated. The accuracy of an approximate solution based on the principle of complementary virtual work is determined. Interest centers on tube response away from the ends and so a planar elasticity approach is used. For the approximate solution a piecewise linear variation of stresses with the radial coordinate is assumed. The results from the approximate solution are compared with the elasticity solution. The stress predictions agree well, particularly peak interlaminar stresses. Surprisingly, the axial deformations also agree well. This, despite the fact that the deformations predicted by the approximate solution do not satisfy the interface displacement continuity conditions required by the elasticity solution. The study shows that the axial thermal expansion coefficient of tubes with a specific number of axial and circumferential layers depends on the stacking sequence. This is in contrast to classical lamination theory which predicts the expansion to be independent of the stacking arrangement. As expected, the sign and magnitude of the peak interlaminar stresses depends on stacking sequence.

Hyer, M. W.↗

Temperature Changes in the United States

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

Vose, R. S.↗

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

Samset, B. H.↗

Magnitude of 64-m elevation axis movements due to alidade temperature changes

In projected very-long baseline interferometry (VLBI) work a reference point for 64-m antennas is the intersection of the elevation and azimuth axes. A minimum-level effort at DSS 14 to determine the magnitude of the effect of diurnal changes in the temperature of the alidade legs on the height of the elevation axis is described. The thermal expansion between the lowest recorded temperature -3 C (27 F) and the highest, 36 C (97 F), over the period covered was 8.9 mm (0.35 in.).

Hung, N. T.↗