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At least 19 records

Changing Temperatures, Changing Risks

Imagine what life with dengue fever would be like in the U.S. during the year 2050. You live with your family in Houston, Texas, and enjoy frequent fishing excursions at the nearby nature reserve. On average, days are about 5° Fahrenheit warmer than in the previous decade, and a summer dengue outbreak is underway. The local public health agency recommends using insect repellent, wearing long sleeves and pants, covering strollers with mosquito netting, and installing screens on windows and doors. It also suggests eliminating mosquito habitats near homes by emptying water-holding containers like planters, toys, tires, and trash receptacles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Reactive Oxygen Species and Hormones in Plant Responses to Temperature Changes

Temperature stress is one of the major abiotic stresses that adversely affect agricultural productivity worldwide. Temperatures beyond a plant’s physiological optimum can trigger significant physiological and biochemical perturbations, reducing plant growth and tolerance to stress. Improving a plant’s tolerance to these temperature fluctuations requires a deep understanding of its responses to environmental change. To adapt to temperature fluctuations, plants tailor their acclimatory signal transduction events, and specifically, cellular redox state, that are governed by plant hormones, reactive oxygen species (ROS) regulatory systems, and other molecular components. The role of ROS in plants as important signaling molecules during stress acclimation has recently been established. Here, hormone-triggered ROS produced by NADPH oxidases, feedback regulation, and integrated signaling events during temperature stress activate stress-response pathways and induce acclimation or defense mechanisms. At the other extreme, excess ROS accumulation, following temperature-induced oxidative stress, can have negative consequences on plant growth and stress acclimation. The excessive ROS is regulated by the ROS scavenging system, which subsequently promotes plant tolerance. All these signaling events, including crosstalk between hormones and ROS, modify the plant’s transcriptomic, metabolomic, and biochemical states and promote plant acclimation, tolerance, and survival. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the ROS, hormones, and their joint role in shaping a plant’s responses to high and low temperatures, and we conclude by outlining hormone/ROS-regulated plant responsive strategies for developing stress-tolerant crops to combat temperature changes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Responses of particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon to temperature changes and their mineral protection mechanisms: A soil translocation experiment

Mineral protection mechanisms are important in determining the response of particulate organic carbon (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) to temperature changes. However, the underlying mechanisms for how POC and MAOC respond to temperature changes are remain unclear. Here, by translocating soils across 1304 m, 1425 m and 2202 m elevation gradient in a temperate forest, simulate nine months of warming (with soil temperature change of +1.41 °C and +3.91 °C) and cooling (with soil temperature change of −1.86 °C and −4.20 °C), we found that warming translocation significantly decreased POC by an average of 10.84 %, but increased MAOC by an average of 4.25 %. Conversely, cooling translocation led to an average increase of 8.64 % in POC and 13.48 % in MAOC. Exchangeable calcium (Ca exe ) had a significant positive correlation with POC and MAOC during temperature changes, and Fe/Al-(hydr)oxides had no significant correlation or a significant negative correlation with POC and MAOC. Our results showed that POC was more sensitive than MAOC to temperature changes. Ca exe mediated the stability of POC and MAOC under temperature changes, and Fe/Al-(hydr)oxides had no obvious protective effect on POC and MAOC. Our results support the role of mineral protection in the stabilization mechanism of POC and MAOC in response to climate change and are critical for understanding the consequences of global change on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics.

Mineral protection↗

Review of Low-Cost Organic and Inorganic Phase Change Materials with Phase Change Temperature between 0°C and 65°C

Phase change materials (PCMs) that undergo a phase transition may be used to provide a nearly isothermal latent heat storage at the phase change temperature. This work reports the energy storage material cost ($/kWh) of various PCMs with phase change between 0-65°C. Four PCM classes are analyzed for their potential use in building systems: 1) inorganic salt hydrates, 2) organic fatty acids, 3) organic fatty alcohols, and 4) organic paraffin waxes. Many salt hydrates have low material costs (0.09 - 2.53 $-kg-1), high latent heat of fusion (100-290 J-g-1), and high densities (1.3-2.6 g-cm-3), leading to favorable volumetric storage density and low energy storage costs, 50-130 kWh-m3 and 0.90-40 $-kWh-1, respectively. Some salts are notably more expensive due to their scarcity or pressures from competing industries such as lithium-based salts. Fatty acids have the lowest energy storage cost in the temperature range 8-17°C at 6.50 – 40 $-kWh-1. Despite favorable latent heat (125 – 250 J-g-1) their low density gives (0.9 g-cm3) gives poor volumetric storage capacity, 32 – 80 kWh-m3. Fatty alcohols generally have high material costs 2.50 – 200 $-kg-1 which leads to high energy storage costs, 40-3000 $/kWh. With latent heat and density similar to fatty acids, fatty alcohols have poor volumetric energy storage, 43 – 55 kWh-m-3.Paraffin waxes containing only a single length carbon chain have a higher energy cost (15 – 500 $-kWh-1) than generic paraffin waxes containing many lengths of carbon chains (7 – 30 $-kWh-1). Pure waxes have a discrete phase change temperature due to their homogeneity. In contrast, a less refined generic wax with several carbon chain lengths is more likely to have a pronounced temperature glide during its phase change. Pure single carbon chain waxes are generally required for applications <45°C as generic paraffin waxes melt between 45-70°C. For many waxes, a solid-solid transition occurs at temperatures below the solid-liquid phase change. For pure paraffins with carbon content ≥22 C atoms, these transitions may appear near the same temperature resembling a temperature glide.The challenges with fatty acids, fatty alcohols, and waxes are low thermal conductivity, low density, some flammability concerns, and compatibility issues with some common engineering materials such as polymers. Challenges with salt hydrates are pronounced supercooling (>5°C), incongruent melting, and corrosiveness. All PCMs may degrade if exposed to ambient conditions and therefore require proper sealing.

Hirschey, Jason↗

Effect of Ion Irradiation on Amorphous and Crystalline Ge–Se and Their Application as Phase Change Temperature Sensor

Research on phase change materials is predominantly focused on their application as memory devices or for temperature control which requires low phase change temperature. The Ge–Se binary chalcogenide glass system with its wide glass-forming region is a potential candidate for high-temperature and high-radiation phase change applications. In this study, the concept of employing Ge x Se 100– x glasses to monitor high temperature (450–528 °C) using the phase change effect, is reported. Materials selection, device structure, and performance of prototype sensors are analyzed. In addition, the effect of heavy ion irradiation by Xe ions with energies of 200, 600, and 1000 keV (fluence ≈10 14 cm –2 ) on the Ge x Se 100– x ( x = 30, 33, 40) thin films and phase change devices is studied. The irradiation effect on the amorphous and crystalline structure of the thin films is evaluated by Raman spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Although the changes in the structural units of amorphous films are negligible, in crystalline films orthorhombic-GeSe 2 crystals are found to be most affected by irradiation and a new phase, orthorhombic GeSe is found in the thin films after irradiation. The performance of a sensor with an active film of Ge 40 Se 60 is also shown as an example.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting

The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Operando Investigation of the Molecular Origins of Dipole Switching in P(VDF‐TrFE‐CFE) Terpolymer for Large Adiabatic Temperature Change

Abstract Relaxor ferroelectric polymers exhibiting a giant electrocaloric effect (ECE) can potentially be used to create next‐generation solid‐state coolers. Under an electric field, poly(vinylidene fluoride‐trifluoroethylene‐chlorofluoroethylene) terpolymer goes through a large dipolar entropy change producing a high adiabatic temperature change (Δ T ECE ). This work resolves the molecular origins of the large entropy change behind the electric field‐induced dipole switching. A Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy equipped with a high voltage source is used to operandoly observe the characteristic molecular vibrational modes. A short‐range trans (T) conformation of the CF 2 ‐CH 2 dyads interrupted by a gauche (G) conformation, e.g., TTTG in the terpolymer chain, undergoes a dynamic transformation that leads to a corresponding Δ T ECE whenever an electric field is applied. The molecular dynamics simulation also proves that the energy barrier that the transformation from TTTGs into a long T sequence overcomes is smaller than that for all other conformations. A mixed solvent system is used to obtain T3G‐enriched terpolymer films exhibiting a 4.02 K Δ T ECE at 60 MV m −1 and these films are employed to manufacture a 2‐layer‐cascaded cooling device that achieves a 6.7 K temperature lift, the highest reported value for a 2‐layer cascaded device made of fluoropolymers.

Zhu, Yuan↗

Movement of Cracked Silicon Solar Cells During Module Temperature Changes

Cracks in crystalline silicon solar cells can lead to substantial power loss. While the cells' metal contacts can initially bridge these cracks and maintain electrical connections, the bridges are damaged by mechanical loads, including those due to temperature changes. We investigated the metallization bridges that form over cracks in encapsulated silicon solar cells. Microscopic characterization showed that the crack in the silicon can immediately propagate through the metal grid, but the grid can maintain electrical contact once the load is removed. We also quantified the movement of the cell fragments separated by a crack as a function of temperature. Cell fragments are free to move diagonally and to rotate, so the change in gap across the crack during a temperature change varies along the length of the crack. In one sample, we showed that a 10 degrees C temperature change, causing a 2 um increase in the separation of cell fragments, was sufficient to cause a reversible electrical disconnection of metallization bridging a crack.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Guidelines for predicting stress in cemented doublets undergoing temperature change

This work explores quick predictive methods for calculating potentially risky stresses and deflections in cemented doublets experiencing temperature change that agree well with finite element analysis. There are three failure modes of interest: cohesive failure of the adhesive, delamination (surface bond failure or debonding), and glass fracture. Adhesive theory, confirmed by finite element analysis, predicts stress singularities that complicate interpretation of the stress calculations. The presence of a stress singularity indicates the breakdown of linear elastic assumptions, but damage initiation and stress singularities are related. The authors find that geometry details near a bond edge can exacerbate or minimize damage initiation and stress concentrations. Because the interpretation of the stress results is complicated, the authors investigated predicted stresses in doublets that have been successfully tested between -40 and 85 °C. This study found that the product (ΔT ∙ Δα) should be less than 189 ppm, where ΔT is the temperature excursion and Δα is the difference in glass coefficient of thermal expansion. If the product (ΔT ∙ Δα) is equal to or greater than 189 ppm, further analysis and testing is warranted. But the authors also show that the fabrication process can significantly influence stress failure, particularly with large diameter doublets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Guidelines for predicting stress in cemented doublets undergoing temperature change

This work explores quick predictive methods for calculating potentially risky stresses and deflections in cemented doublets experiencing temperature change that agree well with finite element analysis. There are three failure modes of interest: cohesive failure of the adhesive, delamination (surface bond failure or debonding), and glass fracture. Adhesive theory, confirmed by finite element analysis, predicts stress singularities that complicate interpretation of the stress calculations. The presence of a stress singularity indicates the breakdown of linear elastic assumptions, but damage initiation and stress singularities are related. The authors find that geometry details near a bond edge can exacerbate or minimize damage initiation and stress concentrations. Because the interpretation of the stress results is complicated, the authors investigated predicted stresses in doublets that have been successfully tested between -40 and 85 °C. This study found that the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) should be less than 189 ppm, where ∆T is the temperature excursion and ∆α is the difference in glass coefficient of thermal expansion. If the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) is equal to or greater than 189 ppm, further analysis and testing is warranted. But the authors also show that the fabrication process can significantly influence stress failure, particularly with large diameter doublets

42 ENGINEERING↗

Large adiabatic temperature change and magnetic frustration in triangular lattice antiferromagnet Dy 2 IrSi 3

While previous studies reveal that the formation of polycrystalline R 2 TX 3 (R = rare-earth, T = transition metal, X = p-block element) type compounds with T = Ir and Co is not achievable without deliberate introduction of atomic vacancies of Ir/Co and Si, here we report successful synthesis of Dy 2 IrSi 3 with fully stoichiometric ratio of constituent elements. An antiferromagnetic transition is manifested in the compound at 6.6 K where only about 50 % of Dy spins take part, while the rest remain in highly frustrated state due to edge-sharing triangular lattice geometry. The magnetic frustration is conclusively probed through magnetization, heat capacity and magnetocaloric study and the frustration parameter (f = |θ p |/T N , θ p , T N being Curie-Weiss and Néel temperatures, respectively) in this case is as large as ~ 3. An additional cluster-glass type transition at ~2.8 K observed in this system has likely been originated due to this magnetic frustration. The magnetocaloric effect reveals an adiabatic temperature change of ~7.5 K for 70 kOe magnetic field, which is one of the largest values reported in intermetallic compounds.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Relative Impact of Sea Ice and Temperature Changes on Arctic Marine Production

We use a modern Earth system model to approximate the relative importance of ice versus temperature on Arctic marine ecosystem dynamics. We show that while the model adequately simulates ice volume, water temperature, air-sea CO 2 flux, and annual primary production in the Arctic, itunderestimates upper water column nitrate across the region. This nitrate bias is likely responsible for the apparent underestimation of ice algae production. Despite this shortcoming, the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring the impacts of environmental change on phytoplankton production and carbon dynamics over the Arctic Ocean. Our experiments indicate that under a warmer climate scenario, the percentage of ocean warming that could be apportioned to a reduction in ice area ranged from 11% to 100%, while decreasing ice area could account for 22–100% of the increase in annual ocean primary production. The change to CO2 air-sea flux in response to ice and temperature changes averaged an Arctic-wide 5.5 Tg C yr –1 (3.5%) increase, into the ocean. This increased carbon sink may be short-lived, as ice cover continues to decrease and the ocean warms. The change in carbon fixation from phytoplankton in response to increased temperatures and reduced ice was generally more than a magnitude larger than the changes to CO 2 flux, highlighting the importance of fully considering changes to the marine ecosystem when assessing Arctic carbon cycle dynamics. Our work demonstrates the importance of ice dynamics in controlling ocean warming and production and thus the need for well-behaved ice and BGC models within Earth system models if we hope to accurately predict Arctic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vegetation-induced asymmetric diurnal land surface temperatures changes across global climate zones

Unprecedented global vegetation greening during past decades is well known to affect annual and seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). However, the impact of observed vegetation cover change on diurnal LST across global climatic zones is not well understood. In this study, using global climatic time-series datasets, we investigated the long-term growing season daytime and nighttime LST changes globally and explored associated dominant contributors including vegetation and climate factors including air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Results revealed asymmetric growing season mean daytime and nighttime LST warming (0.16 °C/10a and 0.30 °C/10a, respectively) globally from 2003 to 2020, as a result, the diurnal LST range (DLSTR) declined at 0.14 °C/10a. The sensitivity analysis indicated the LST response to changes in LAI, precipitation, and SSRD mainly concentrated during daytime instead of nighttime, however, which showed comparable sensitivities for air temperature. Combining the sensitivities results and the observed LAI and climate trends, we found rising air temperature contributes to 0.24 ± 0.11 °C/10a global daytime LST warming and 0.16 ± 0.07 °C/10a nighttime LST warming, turns to be the dominant contributor to the LST changes. Increased LAI cooled global daytime LST (–0.068 ± 0.096 °C/10a) while warmed nighttime LST (0.064 ± 0.046 °C/10a); hence LAI dominates declines in DLSTR trends (–0.12 ± 0.08 °C/10a), despite some daynight process variations across climate zones. In Boreal regions, reduced DLSTR was due to nighttime warming from LAI increases. In other climatic zones, daytime cooling, and DLSTR decline, was induced by increased LAI. Biophysically, the pathway from air temperature heats the surface through sensible heat and increased downward longwave radiation during day and night, while the pathway from LAI cools the surface by enhancing energy redistribution into latent heat rather than sensible heat during the daytime. These empirical findings of diverse asymmetric responses could help calibrate and improve biophysical models of diurnal surface temperature feedback in response to vegetation cover changes in different climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Human activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels have been shown to have affected the temperature of the Earth on global and continental scales. The surface air temperature (TAS) over India has also been observed to be increasing over the last 100 years. Understanding the underlying causes of regional climate change over India can help in developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals of externally forced climate changes from the noise of natural internal variability generally becomes more difficult as spatial scale reduces. Therefore detecting and attributing the influence of external forcings such as GHGs and aerosols is harder at local and regional scales. In this study, we applied a detection and attribution (D&A) method to study annual and seasonal mean TAS over the Indian region. We found that the observed warming over India from 1906 to 2005 cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. We found that the warming is largely driven by the increase in GHGs, and partially offset by regional anthropogenic emissions of aerosols. These results were confirmed for the shorter 1956–2005 period, but results were sensitive to the choice of observational data set. Furthermore, the changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural external forcings alone, but are compatible with the responses to combined anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic Ambient Noise Analyses Reveal Changing Temperature and Water Signals to 10s of Meters Depth in the Critical Zone

The critical zone sustains terrestrial life, but we have few tools to explore it efficiently beyond the first few meters of the subsurface. Using analyses of high-frequency ambient seismic noise from densely spaced seismometers deployed in the forested Shale Hills subcatchment of the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), we show that temporal changes in seismic velocities at depths from ~1 m to tens of m can be detected. Furthermore, these changes are driven by variations at the land surface. The Moving-Window Cross-Spectral (MWCS) method was employed to measure seismic-velocity changes in coda waves at hourly resolution in 10 different frequency bands. We observed a diurnal signal, a seasonal signal, and a meteorological-event-based signal. These signals were compared to time-series measurements of precipitation, well water levels, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, latent heat flux, and air pressure in the heavily instrumented catchment. Most of the velocity changes can be explained by variations in temperature that result in thermoelastic strains that propagate to depth. But some double minima in seismic velocity time-series observed after large rain events were attributed in part to the effects of water infiltration. These results show that high-frequency ambient noise data may in some locations be used to detect changes in the critical zone from ~1 to ~100 m or greater depth with hourly resolution. But interpretation of such data requires multiple environmental data sets to deconvolve the complex interrelationships among thermoelastic and hydrological effects in the subsurface critical zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗