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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016

Abstract. Soil moisture (SM) datasets are critical to understanding the global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles and benefit extensive societal applications. However, individual sources of SM data (e.g., in situ and satellite observations, reanalysis, offline land surface model simulations, Earth system model – ESM – simulations) have source-specific limitations and biases related to the spatiotemporal continuity, resolutions, and modeling and retrieval assumptions. Here, we developed seven global, gap-free, long-term (1970–2016), multilayer (0–10, 10–30, 30–50, and 50–100 cm) SM products at monthly 0.5∘ resolution (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13661312.v1; Wang and Mao, 2021) by synthesizing a wide range of SM datasets using three statistical methods (unweighted averaging, optimal linear combination, and emergent constraint). The merged products outperformed their source datasets when evaluated with in situ observations (mean bias from −0.044 to 0.033 m3 m−3, root mean square errors from 0.076 to 0.104 m3 m−3, Pearson correlations from 0.35 to 0.67) and multiple gridded datasets that did not enter merging because of insufficient spatial, temporal, or soil layer coverage. Three of the new SM products, which were produced by applying any of the three merging methods to the source datasets excluding the ESMs, had lower bias and root mean square errors and higher correlations than the ESM-dependent merged products. The ESM-independent products also showed a better ability to capture historical large-scale drought events than the ESM-dependent products. The merged products generally showed reasonable temporal homogeneity and physically plausible global sensitivities to observed meteorological factors, except that the ESM-dependent products underestimated the low-frequency temporal variability in SM and overestimated the high-frequency variability for the 50–100 cm depth. Based on these evaluation results, the three ESM-independent products were finally recommended for future applications because of their better performances than the ESM-dependent ones. Despite uncertainties in the raw SM datasets and fusion methods, these hybrid products create added value over existing SM datasets because of the performance improvement and harmonized spatial, temporal, and vertical coverages, and they provide a new foundation for scientific investigation and resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

An evaluation of the consistency of extremes in gridded precipitation data sets

Noting a strong imperative to understand precipitation extremes, and that considerable uncertainty affects observational data sets, this paper compares the representation of extremes in a number of widely used daily gridded products, derived from rain gauge data, satellite retrieval and reanalysis for the conterminous United States. Analysis is based upon the concept of “tail dependence” arising in multivariate extreme value theory, and we infer the level of temporal dependence in the joint tail of the precipitation probability distribution for pairwise comparisons of products. In this way, we consider the range of products more like an ensemble and examine the relationships between members, and do not attempt to define, or compare products to, some ground truth. Linear correlation between products is also computed. Considerable discrepancy between groups of products, both annually and seasonally, is linked to source data and complex terrain. In particular, products based on rain gauge data showed remarkable similarity, but differed considerably, showing almost total loss of extremal dependence during DJF in mountainous regions, when compared with satellite products. Additionally, simulated re-forecasts revealed reasonable temporal agreement with large scale generated extremes. The diversity and extent of discrepancies identified across all products raises important questions about their use, and we urge caution, particularly for products derived from satellite data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Optimal Energy Flow for Integrated Energy Systems Considering Gas Transients

This letter presents an optimal energy flow (OEF) for integrated energy systems considering the transient process of natural gas flows, whose main dynamic features are efficiently approximated in our setup. To achieve this, new discretization criteria are proposed to divide the gas flow equations into reasonable temporal and spatial segments to accurately model the gas flow dynamics in a set of difference equations. Simulation results validate the effectiveness of the OEF based on the proposed discretization criteria and its advantages over existing methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Watermarks in stream processing systems: semantics and comparative analysis of Apache Flink and Google cloud dataflow

Streaming data processing is an exercise in taming disorder: from oftentimes huge torrents of information, we hope to extract powerful and timely analyses. But when dealing with streaming data, the unbounded and temporally disordered nature of real-world streams introduces a critical challenge: how does one reason about the completeness of a stream that never ends? In this paper, we present a comprehensive definition and analysis of watermarks, a key tool for reasoning about temporal completeness in infinite streams.First, we describe what watermarks are and why they are important, highlighting how they address a suite of stream processing needs that are poorly served by eventually-consistent approaches:• Computing a single correct answer, as in notifications.• Reasoning about a lack of data, as in dip detection.• Performing non-incremental processing over temporal subsets of an infinite stream, as in statistical anomaly detection with cubic spline models.• Safely and punctually garbage collecting obsolete inputs and intermediate state.• Surfacing a reliable signal of overall pipeline health.Second, we describe, evaluate, and compare the semantically equivalent, but starkly different, watermark implementations in two modern stream processing engines: Apache Flink and Google Cloud Dataflow.

Akidau, Tyler↗

DOE OSTI2026

Compositional Reasoning for Hierarchical State Machines

Harel statecharts and its derivatives are popular graphical languages for specifying discrete control systems via hierarchical state machines. Separately, there has been a long line of work on specifying concurrent systems with process calculi which come equipped with an algebraic theory, the ability reason compositionally about various temporal properties, and strong type systems. While these two approaches to modeling systems are tantalizingly similar, the integrated reasoning principles that exist for process calculi have not been demonstrated in hierarchical state machines. A key issue is that operational theories for process calculi do not behave like control systems, and thus, there is virtually no tool support for modeling control systems with such languages. For a control system designer, bringing the integrated, more scalable reasoning from the process calculi to state-machine languages would enable the specification of more complex systems and a more modular systems development process. Our insight is that we can recover many important results from the process calculi in hierarchical state machines with local scope. We employ a structural operational semantics, which is ubiquitous in process and 𝜆-calculi but uncommon in hierarchical statemachine formalizations, to enable inductive reasoning about behavior. Taking inspiration from the structure of process calculi metatheories, we define a calculus of refinement and equivalence that we prove sound with respect to local notion of (bi)simulation. Furthermore, we prove that the calculus preserves the behavioral properties of reactivity, observational determinism, traces, and linear temporal properties. Our results are mechanized in the Rocq proof assistant.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Printed Potentiometric Ammonium Sensors for Agriculture Applications

Ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentration is critical to both nutrient availability and nitrogen (N) loss in soil ecosystems but can be highly variable across spatial and temporal scales. For this reason, effectively informing agricultural practices such as fertilizer management and understanding of mechanisms of soil N loss require sensor technologies to monitor ammonium concentrations in real time. Our work investigates the performance of fully printed ammonium ion-selective sensors used in diverse soil environments. Ammonium sensors consisting of a printed ammonium ion-selective electrode and a printed Ag/AgCl reference were fabricated and characterized in aqueous solutions and three different soil types (sand, peat, and clay) under the range of ion concentrations likely to be present in soil (0.01–100 mM). The response of ammonium sensors was further evaluated under variable gravimetric moisture content in the soil to reflect their reliability under field conditions. Ammonium sensors demonstrated a sensitivity of 53.6 ± 5.1 mV/decade when tested in aqueous solution, and a sensitivity of 55.7 ± 11 mV/dec, 57.5 ± 4.1 mV/dec, and 43.7 ± 4 mV/dec was measured in sand, clay, and peat soils, respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the Sandia LDRD project "Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis." The goal of the project was to develop a method for analyzing multiple time-series data streams to identify precursors providing advance warning of the potential occurrence of events of interest. The proposed approach combined temporal analysis of each data stream with reasoning about relationships between data streams using a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. This class of problems is relevant to several important topics of national interest. In the course of this work we developed new temporal analysis techniques, including temporal analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, temporal shift algorithms to refine forecasts, and a version of Ripley's K-function extended to support temporal precursor identification. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, and gathers the abstracts and references for the publication submissions and reports that were prepared as part of this work. We then describe work in progress that is not yet ready for publication.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the Sandia LDRD project "Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis." The goal of the project was to develop a method for analyzing multiple time-series data streams to identify precursors providing advance warning of the potential occurrence of events of interest. The proposed approach combined temporal analysis of each data stream with reasoning about relationships between data streams using a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. This class of problems is relevant to several important topics of national interest. In the course of this work we developed new temporal analysis techniques, including temporal analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, temporal shift algorithms to refine forecasts, and a version of Ripley's K-function extended to support temporal precursor identification. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, and gathers the abstracts and references for the publication sub-missions and reports that were prepared as part of this work. We then describe work in progress that is not yet ready for publication.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring temporal community evolution: algorithmic approaches and parallel optimization for dynamic community detection

Abstract Dynamic (temporal) graphs are a convenient mathematical abstraction for many practical complex systems including social contacts, business transactions, and computer communications. Community discovery is an extensively used graph analysis kernel with rich literature for static graphs. However, community discovery in a dynamic setting is challenging for two specific reasons. Firstly, the notion of temporal community lacks a widely accepted formalization, and only limited work exists on understanding how communities emerge over time. Secondly, the added temporal dimension along with the sheer size of modern graph data necessitates new scalable algorithms. In this paper, we investigate how communities evolve over time based on several graph metrics under a temporal formalization. We compare six different algorithmic approaches for dynamic community detection for their quality and runtime. We identify that a vertex-centric (local) optimization method works as efficiently as the classical modularity-based methods. To its advantage, such local computation allows for the efficient design of parallel algorithms without incurring a significant parallel overhead. Based on this insight, we design a shared-memory parallel algorithm DyComPar , which demonstrates between 4 and 18 fold speed-up on a multi-core machine with 20 threads, for several real-world and synthetic graphs from different domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

MemFriend: Understanding Memory Performance with Spatial-Temporal Affinity

In HPC applications, memory access behavior is one of the main factors affecting performance. Improving an application’s memory access behavior involves optimizing data layout and/or restructuring code, and requires studying spatial-temporal data locality. Existing data locality analyses focus on single-location metrics and are restricted to evaluating temporal locality. We introduce spatial-temporal affinity metrics that quantify temporal access proximity, forward access correlation, and nearby access correlation between pairs of memory locations. We describe methods for distinguishing between potential vs. realized affinity and for reasoning about affinity at multiple resolutions (3D, 2D, 1D). Finally, we construct spatial-temporal affinity signatures that classify memory behavior and that be used to reason about changes in software (data relayout, code refactoring) or hardware (caching, prefetching). We describe methods for signature visualization, interpretation, and quantitative comparison of signatures. We evaluate our methodology using applications with variants that contrast data structures, data layouts and algorithms. We show that spatial-temporal affinity analysis provides novel insights and enables predictive reasoning about application performance when contrasted with reuse distance analysis.

Suriyakumar, Yasodhadevi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modification of Lie's transform perturbation theory for charged particle motion in a magnetic field

It is pointed out that the conventional Lie transform perturbation theory for the guiding center motion of charged particles in a magnetic field needs to be modified for ordering inconsistency. There are two reasons. First, the ordering difference between the temporal variation of gyrophase and that of the other phase space coordinates needs to be taken into account. Second, it is also important to note that the parametric limit of the derivative of a function is not equivalent to the derivative of the limit function. When these facts are taken into account, the near identity transformation rule for one form related to the Lagrangian is modified. With the modified near identity transformation rule, the drift motion of charged particles can be described in the first order, instead of the second order and beyond through a tedious expansion process as in the conventional formulation. Here, this resolves the discrepancy between the direct and Lie transform treatments in the Lagrangian perturbation theory for charged particle motion in a magnetic field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Approaches to Generate Knowledge from Data in a Plant Reliability Context

One challenge that nuclear power plant system engineers are facing is that the amount of equipment reliability (ER) data being continuously generated are extremely large. These data elements come in different forms: textual (e.g., condition reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems) and they provide system engineers with valuable insights and information regarding the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors and trends, and the prediction of their direct consequences. This paper directly targets the generation of knowledge from ER data by putting “data into context”. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional (i.e., cause-effect) relations. ER data elements are processed by identifying first which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. This task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process “knowledge extraction” where our methods to extract knowledge from textual data. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, we discover possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if there is a temporal relation among them. The logic and temporal are the two main ingredients to perform “machine reasoning” from ER data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Approaches to Generate Knowledge from Data in a Plant Reliability Context

One challenge that nuclear power plant system engineers are facing is continuous generation of an extremely large amount of equipment reliability (ER) data. These data elements come in textual (e.g., condition reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems) forms. They provide system engineers with valuable insights and information by discovering anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, identifying possible causes behind such behaviors and trends, and predicting their direct consequences. This paper directly targets the knowledge generation from ER data by putting “data into context.” We employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional (i.e., cause-effect) relations. ER data elements are processed by first identifying which of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. This task is harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to be “understood” by a computational tool. We called this process “knowledge extraction” since our methods extract knowledge from textual data. Last, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood,” we discover possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing whether a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if there is a temporal relationship among them. The logic and temporal are the two main ingredients to perform “machine reasoning” from ER data.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Scalable Reasoning System (SRS)

SRS is a web-based and mobile toolkit for information visualization and collaboration. It includes server-side components in the form of web services that provide analytical functions such as data clustering and temporal analysis. The SRS client is accessed via a web browser and uses asynchronous javascript and XML (AJAX) to interact with and visualize the results of these web services. Users of SRS can query data sources that are connected to the SRS backend, and query results are presented in the form of coordinated visual displays in a web browser that depict temporal, topical, and spatial relationships in the results. SRS also includes an early stage graphical reasoning diagram interface that helps analysts express and test hypotheses. This software was developed with funding from the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Pike, William↗

DOE OSTI2022

An interpretable machine learning model for advancing terrestrial ecosystem predictions

We apply an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network for land-atmosphere carbon flux predictions based on time series observations of seven environmental variables. iLSTM enables interpretability of variable importance and variable-wise temporal importance to the prediction of targets by exploring internal network structures. The application results indicate that iLSTM not only improves prediction performance by capturing different dynamics of individual variables, but also reasonably interprets the different contribution of each variable to the target and its different temporal relevance to the target. This variable and temporal importance interpretation of iLSTM advances terrestrial ecosystem model development as well as our predictive understanding of the system.

Lu, Dan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global Dust Cycle and Direct Radiative Effect in E3SM Version 1: Impact of Increasing Model Resolution

Quantification of dust aerosols in Earth System Models (ESMs) has important implications for water cycle and biogeochemistry studies. This study examines the global life cycle and direct radiative effects (DREs) of dust in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the impact of increasing model resolution both horizontally and vertically. The default 1° E3SMv1 captures the spatial and temporal variability in the observed dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) reasonably well, but overpredicts dust absorption in the shortwave (SW). Simulations underestimate the dust vertical and long-range transport, compared with the satellite dust extinction profiles. After updating dust refractive indices and correcting for a bias in partitioning size-segregated emissions, both SW cooling and longwave (LW) warming of dust simulated by E3SMv1 are increased and agree better with other recent studies. The estimated net dust DRE of –0.42 Wm –2 represents a stronger cooling effect than the observationally based estimate –0.2 Wm –2 (–0.48 to +0.2), due to a smaller LW warming. Constrained by a global mean DAOD, model sensitivity studies of increasing horizontal and vertical resolution show strong influences on the simulated global dust burden and lifetime primarily through the change of dust dry deposition rate; there are also remarkable differences in simulated spatial distributions of DAOD, DRE, and deposition fluxes. Thus, constraining the global DAOD is insufficient for accurate representation of dust climate effects, especially in transitioning to higher- or variable-resolution ESMs. Better observational constraints of dust vertical profiles, dry deposition, size, and LW properties are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cauchy-type integral method for solving the linearized one-dimensional Vlasov-Poisson equation

Here, we present a method for solving the linearized Vlasov-Poisson equation, based on analyticity properties of the equilibrium and initial condition through Cauchy-type integrals, that produces algebraic expressions for the distribution and field, i.e., the solution is expressed without integrals. Standard extant approaches involve deformations of the Bromwich contour that give erroneous results for certain physically reasonable configurations or eigenfunction expansions that are misleading as to the temporal structure of the solution. Our method is more transparent, lacks these defects, and predicts previously unrecognized behavior.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Motility Analysis of T-Cell Histories in Activation (Matcha) v0.1.0

Despite advances in microscopy, imaging techniques only capture a very small spatial and temporal fraction of T cell activity within a tissue. For this reason, we have pursued the development of a virtual T cell model. Matcha's objective is to design virtual T cells that move like biological T cells. The virtual T cells will match the speed and turning angle distributions of biological cells. In addition, Matcha will also attempt to match the volume patrolled by the biological cells and the dependence on speed and turning angle on the previous speed.

Rouson, Damian↗