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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can lidars assess wind plant blockage in simple terrain? A WRF-LES study

Wind plant blockage reduces wind velocity upstream of wind plants, reducing the power generated by turbines adjacent to the inflow, and potentially throughout the plant as well. The nature of the mechanism that amplifies blockage as well as the velocity reductions in both the induction zone and potentially deeper into the array are not well understood. Field observations can provide valuable insight into the characteristics of the induction zone and the mechanisms that amplify it. However, the relatively small velocity reductions that have been measured experimentally pose a challenge in quantifying blockage, especially in onshore environments with flow heterogeneities that may be of the same scale as the blockage effect itself. We simulate the flow around the King Plains wind plant in the relatively simple terrain of Oklahoma, the location of the American WAKE experimeNt, to evaluate wind plant blockage in this environment. Using numerical simulations, we find the largest velocity deceleration (0.64 m s−1; 8%) immediately upstream of the wind plant, and 1% velocity deficits 24 rotor diameters upstream of the first turbine row. We also use virtual measurements upstream of the wind plant to analyze the uncertainties and difficulties in measuring blockage using a scanning lidar on shore. Based on our virtual lidar study, the induction zone of land-based wind plants can be incorrectly estimated using observations if the effects of nonuniform terrain on the flow are not carefully considered. Changes in terrain elevation produce local variations in wind speed (as measured by a scanning lidar) that exceed in magnitude the deceleration within the induction zone. We refer to these local changes in wind speed as terrain effects. A methodology to differentiate between terrain effects and blockage in experimental settings is proposed and evaluated herein, highlighting the difficulties and uncertainties associated with measurement and simulation of blockage in even relatively simple onshore environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Smart Planning for Radioactive Source Transport Advanced Tools for Increased Safety and Efficiency

End-of-life (EOL) management of high-activity radioactive sources is made uniquely challenging by the inherent risks associated with storage and transportation of these sources, the complex logistics involved, and the strict requirements for regulatory compliance. Traditional methods lack comprehensive tools for accurate site assessments and precision planning for the transportation of radioactive sources. They also frequently fail to provide the adaptability required to consider diverse operational environments, resulting in inefficiencies and potential safety concerns. This paper introduces a novel software solution developed to address these issues by integrating advanced technologies such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-based 3D environment modeling, smart dynamic route planning, and customizable measurement functionalities. This software enables detailed terrain visualizations, facilitating thorough environmental assessments and enabling users to virtually navigate, analyze, and plan site-specific operations. Among the key features are a user-centric interface for virtual navigation, precise site measurement tools for site evaluations, interactive visualizations that highlight potential operational hazards, dynamic route planning capabilities, and real-time collision detection to promote safe workflows. By demonstrating the effectiveness of this tool through real-world application, the present work underscores the tool’s potential to revolutionize radioactive source EOL management by improving operational efficiencies, minimizing risk, and advancing the state of practice to achieve suitable and secure radioactive material handling.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Drop Size Distribution Variability in Central Argentina during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Meso-scale/micro-scale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions Experiment Proposal (CACTI) field campaigns provided an unprecedented thirteen-disdrometer dataset in Central Argentina during the Intensive (IOP, 15 November to 15 December 2018) and Extended (EOP, 15 October 2018 to 30 April 2019) Observational Periods. The drop size distribution (DSD) parameters and their variability were analyzed across the region of interest, which was divided into three subregions characterized by the differing proximity to the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), in order to assess the impact of complex terrain on the DSD parameters. A rigorous quality control of the data was first performed. The frequency distributions of DSD-derived parameters were analyzed, including the normalized intercept parameter (logN w ), the mean volume diameter (D 0 ), the mean mass diameter (D m ), the shape parameter (μ), the liquid water content (LWC), and the rain rate (R). The region closest to the SDC presented higher values of logN w , lower D 0 , and higher μ, while the opposite occurred in the farthest region, i.e., the concentration of small drops decreased while the concentration of bigger drops increased with the distance to the east of the SDC. Furthermore, the region closest to the SDC showed a bimodal distribution of D 0 : the lower values of D 0 were associated with higher values of logN w and were found more frequently during the afternoon, while the higher D 0 were associated with lower logN w and occurred more frequently during the night. The data were analyzed in comparison to the statistical analysis of Dolan et al. 2018 and sorted according to the classification proposed in the cited study. The logN w -D 0 and LWC-D 0 two-dimensional distributions allowed further discussion around the applicability of other mid-latitude and global precipitation classification schemes (startiform/convection) in the region of interest. Finally, three precipitation case studies were analyzed with supporting polarimetric radar data in order to relate the DSD characteristics to the precipitation type and the microphysical processes involved in each case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The first ensemble of kilometer-scale simulations of a hydrological year over the third pole

An accurate understanding of the current and future water cycle over the Third Pole is of great societal importance, given the role this region plays as a water tower for densely populated areas downstream. An emerging and promising approach for skillful climate assessments over regions of complex terrain is kilometer-scale climate modeling. As a foundational step towards such simulations over the Third Pole, we present a multi-model and multi-physics ensemble of kilometer-scale regional simulations for the hydrological year of October 2019 to September 2020. The ensemble consists of 13 simulations performed by an international consortium of 10 research groups, configured with a horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2.2 to 4 km covering all of the Third Pole region. These simulations are driven by ERA5 and are part of a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment Flagship Pilot Study on Convection-Permitting Third Pole. The simulations are compared against available gridded and in-situ observations and remote-sensing data, to assess the performance and spread of the model ensemble compared to the driving reanalysis during the cold and warm seasons. Although ensemble evaluation is hindered by large differences between the gridded precipitation datasets used as a reference over this region, we show that the ensemble improves on many warm-season precipitation metrics compared with ERA5, including most wet-day and hour statistics, and also adds value in the representation of wet spells in both seasons. As such, the ensemble will provide an invaluable resource for future improvements in the process understanding of the hydroclimate of this remote but important region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing turbulence and mixing parameterizations in the gray-zone of multiscale simulations over mountainous terrain during the METEX21 field experiment

Multiscale numerical weather prediction models transition from mesoscale, where turbulence is fully parameterized, to microscale, where the majority of highly energetic scales of turbulence are resolved. The turbulence gray-zone is situated between these two regimes and multiscale models must downscale through these resolutions. Here, we compare three multiscale simulations which vary by the parameterization used for turbulence and mixing within the gray-zone. The three parameterizations analyzed are the Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and Niino (MYNN) Level 2.5 planetary boundary layer scheme, the TKE-1.5 large eddy simulation (LES) closure scheme, and a recently developed three-dimensional planetary boundary layer scheme based on the Mellor-Yamada model. The simulation domain includes complex (i.e., mountainous) terrain in Nevada that was instrumented with meteorological towers, profiling and scanning lidars, a tethered balloon, and a surface flux tower. Simulations are compared to each other and to observations, with assessment of model skill at predicting wind speed, wind direction and TKE, and qualitative evaluations of transport and dispersion of smoke from controlled releases. This analysis demonstrates that microscale predictions of transport and dispersion can be significantly influenced by the choice of turbulence and mixing parameterization in the terra incognita , particularly over regions of complex terrain and with strong local forcing. This influence may not be apparent in the analysis of model skill, and motivates future field campaigns involving controlled tracer releases and corresponding modeling studies of the turbulence gray-zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) of Snow Water Equivalent from the Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory

The upper Colorado River basin is the primary source of water for 40 million people. With declining snowpack in the basin, forecasting hydrological budgets in the Southwest United States is more important than ever. However, due in part, to a lack of reliable observations of precipitation in complex terrain, hydrological models struggle to assess and forecast snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE) in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). Therefore, the need for more reliable SWE forecasts in the UCRB motivated the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility’s Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) that occurred from June 2021 to June 2023. During SAIL, the X-band precipitation radar from Colorado State University conducted volume scans sampling the precipitation properties over the UCRB. The ARM facility developed a gridded Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) product from the radar observations. To do this, various daily SWE estimates from radar using the radar reflectivity factor Z e and specific differential phase K dp were compared against ground-based precipitation gauges. SWE in precipitation calculated from Wolfe and Snider’s S–Z e estimator was in best agreement with the rain gauges for the days when SWE < 12 mm. For days with SWE > 12 mm, the WSR-88D Intermountain West relationship had the best agreement with the precipitation gauges. Airborne snow depth observations show that SQUIRE captures regions of orographic enhancement in the mountains to the west and northwest of the SAIL study area, indicating that the scientific community should focus on understanding and ultimately simulating orographic atmospheric precipitation processes to improve UCRB snowpack SWE assessment and forecasting.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determination of Wind Exposure Category and Basic Wind Speed for B332 and Other Facilities Located within Superblock

This document assesses of the typical surface terrain for the LLNL Site 200 Campus surrounding B332 in accordance with ASCE 7-16 and demonstrates that wind Exposure Category B can be applied to B332 and the other buildings and structures located within the fenced perimeter of Superblock. When compensating for the Exposure Category B surface terrain surrounding B332 and Superblock, calculations show that the ANS 2.3 WDC-3 Basic Wind Speed for B332 is adjusted from 118 mph to 100 mph and the WDC-2 Basic Wind Speed is adjusted from 115 mph to 98 mph.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Lateral Flow on Surface Water and Energy Budgets over the Southern Great Plains – A Modeling Study

As we see the horizontal grid spacing decrease, treatment of hydrologic processes in land surface models, such as the lateral flow of surface and subsurface flow, need to be explicitly represented. Unlike previous studies that mainly focused on the mountainous regions, in this study the offline WRF-Hydro model is employed to study the impact of lateral flow on soil moisture and energy fluxes over the relatively flat southern Great Plains (SGP). The vast amount of measurements over the SGP provide an unique opportunity to assess the model behavior. In addition, newly developed land surface properties and input forcing are ingested into the model, in an attempt to reduce uncertainties associated with the initial and boundary forcing and help to identify model deficiencies. Our results show that the more realistic inputs (parameters, soil types, forcing) lead to larger underestimation of latent heat flux and dry bias, indicating the existence of model structural uncertainty (embedded errors) in WRF-Hydro that need to be characterized to inform future model development efforts. Including lateral flow processes partly mitigates the model deficiencies in representing hydrologic processes and alleviates the dry bias. In particular, both surface and subsurface lateral flow increase soil moisture mainly over the lower elevations, except that subsurface flow also affects soil moisture over steeper terrains. Additional simulations are performed to assess the effect of routing resolution on model results. When LSM resolution is high, noticeable differences in soil moisture are produced between different routing resolutions especially over steep terrain. Whereas when LSM resolution is coarse, differences between routing resolutions become negligible, especially over flat terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Impacts of Environmental Perturbations on Urban Biogenic Carbon Exchange in the Chicago Region

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quantification is critical for assessing city-level carbon emissions and sustainable urban development. While urban vegetation has the potential to provide environmental benefits, such as heat and carbon mitigation, the CO 2 exchange from biogenic sectors and its impact from the environmental perturbations are often overlooked. It is also challenging to simulate the plant functions in the complex urban terrain. This study presents a processed-based modeling approach to assess the biogenic carbon fluxes from the vegetated areas over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA) using the Weather Research and Forecast—Urban Biogenic Carbon exchange model. We investigate the change of CO 2 sink power in CMA under heatwaves and irrigation. The results indicate that the vegetation plays a significant role in the city's carbon portfolio and the landscaping management has the potential to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Furthermore, based on the competing mechanisms in the biogenic carbon balance identified in this study, we develop a novel Environmental Benefit Score metrics framework to identify the vulnerability and mitigation measures associated with nature-based solutions (NbS) within CMA. By using the generalized portable framework and our science-policy confluence analysis presented in this study, global cities can maximize the effectiveness of NbS and accelerate carbon neutrality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated remote sensing tools to counter illicit maritime activity: vessel detection, bathymetry and topography from WorldView imagery

Illicit maritime activity, such as piracy and smuggling, is a global issue that often occurs in areas where interdiction authorities are sparse, ground-based monitoring technologies like radar lack range and coverage, and dark vessels abound. Our objective was to assess vessel congregation patterns, identify likely beaching areas based on terrain maps, and use them to narrow the search for potential smuggling transfer and overland routes in a specific region along the Puntland coast of Somalia. To accomplish this goal, we developed automated protocols applied to WorldView satellite imagery for (1) vessel detection and size classification, (2) shallow-water bathymetric characterization, and (3) coastal topography mapping. Utilizing a single sensor for vessel detection and topographic and bathymetric extraction at high spatial resolution and at a high re-visit rate provides a simplification to near-shore characterization for monitoring purposes. The extracted topography and bathymetry are then presented as a single, comprehensive perspective of a coastal region. The vessel-detection algorithm identified all vessels larger than approximately 15 metres in length (35 of 35), but misidentified six artefacts (i.e. false positives), resulting in an overall accuracy of 85%. The combined vessel and terrain maps facilitated the identification of a potential beaching and overland transportation route location.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mauka Energy FEVER Tool Dataset

Mauka Energy’s dataset, developed under the Forestry Electric Vehicle Energy Routing (FEVER) project and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Small Business Innovation Research program, is a high-resolution geospatial resource designed to support energy modeling for electric log trucks in complex forestry environments. The dataset integrates detailed spatial and road network data to enable accurate simulation of vehicle performance across varied terrain. At its core, the dataset incorporates lidar-derived elevation models, road alignments, and surface classifications from Oregon State University’s McDonald-Dunn Research Forest. These data capture fine-scale variations in slope, curvature, and surface conditions across forest road systems, allowing for vehicle-level analysis of energy consumption and recovery. The dataset also includes data collected on the surrounding public and private road networks in Benton County, Oregon, used in real-world haul routes. These connecting segments provide critical context for modeling transitions between forest operations and regional transportation infrastructure, incorporating attributes such as grade profiles, elevation change, and speed constraints. This combined dataset underpins the development of Mauka Energy’s rolldown tool, which quantifies energy use and regenerative braking potential on downhill and variable-grade segments. By leveraging high-resolution terrain and road data, the FEVER project enables more accurate assessment of electric vehicle feasibility and performance in forestry applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of the Intelligent, Preventive Infrared (IR) Inspection System Housed in Hybrid Robotic Platforms

Robots and robotic systems that are designed for inspection, environmental study, and health and safety aid are becoming an increasing necessity. However, there is a number of challenges that accompany robots that are designed for these specific applications. These challenges include: navigating compact, enclosed spaces, travelling over multiple terrains and large obstacles, using the proper sensing and detection methods to assess an environment, and the use of lightweight and durable materials. The robotic platforms currently in development look at all of these challenges and attempt to overcome them. These designs specific use of hybrid robotic platforms, or platform that utilizes soft and rigid materials, allows for a more flexible platform and makes environments more navigable. To further improve the navigation of the platforms and environmental assessment, a novel infrared detection system is housed in the platforms to create a robot that can be used for the applications listed above and more. Objectives: Further develop two types of robotic platforms that utilize additive manufacturing, soft materials, and rigid materials. Continue the development of an intelligent and inhibitory infrared detection system based on an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm. Continued study and fabrication of active soft materials designed for both sensing and actuation in hybrid robotic systems. Improve additive manufacturing fabrication to design rigid and semi-rigid components for hybrid robotic platforms. Transformable Wheel Robotic Platform: The chassis, wheels, tires and inspection system housing use different additive manufacturing techniques for fabrication. Continued work with additive manufacturing has lead to studies in metal-based printing and modular design and manufacturing. The new platform design with integrated electrical component printed. This will allow integration of the sensor housing onto the platform. Electrical components are being tested for battery life and performance. To improve this performance, such as integration of Lithium Polymer (LiPo) batteries. Snake Robotic Platform: The main focus of the development has centered around liquid-based soft actuators. That act on the principles of electrostatic and hydraulic actuation. A liquid dielectric sits between two compliant electrodes, contained by a flexible polymer shell. The electrodes and film gradually collapse toward each other from one corner of the electrode to the other. When the electrodes and film close together, a majority of the fluid is pushed into the area not covered by an electrode. A thin layer of the liquid dielectric remains between the electrode. The actuators will be stacked to cause large displacement, and move the linkages. The chassis of this platform uses purely additively manufactured linkages. Intelligent, Preventive IR Inspection System: Development of the AI for the system has lead to using a Scikit-Learn which assists in creating predictive models based on Regression, clustering, classification etc. To improve the infrared thermometry for low emissivity sources, work on the fabrication of a tandem photoconductive infrared thermometer was a main focus. Distance-Voltage-Temperature response data has been collected in the range of 7 cm - 100 cm and 200-400 deg. C. Modifications were made to the existing test bench to have a better control over the data. Automated data collection was realized using a Python code and an Arduino controlled stepper motor to increase the sample rate. A protective enclosure has been built around the setup to minimize the effect of the environment on the measurements. To better predict temperature, different AI models are being optimized. The regression model, LARS showed a high accuracy but had convergence issues and only works for the current test set-up. Results: The Transformable Wheel Robot has developed into a more flexible and modular platform. With the improvements to the current work, effort on the tire or soft gripper design been a large focus. The soft grippers will be interchange able to allow for increased performance in identified terrain types. The development of the liquid-based actuators allows the snake robotic platform to achieve the goals of being flexible and able to navigate confined spaces. However, there is room for improvement. Optimization work is currently being done in COMSOL Multiphysics. With the current IR system set-up the LARS model perfectly predicts the data; however, considering the mobility aspect of the project other models will allow for an optimized system. Testing of other model types is currently being done.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Assessment of Potential for Wind Energy Technology on the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Reservation

Wind energy can provide renewable and sustainable electricity to Native American reservations, including rural homes, and power schools and businesses on reservations. It can also provide tribes with a source of income and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to determine the potential for deploying community and utility-scale wind renewable technologies on the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa tribal lands. Ideal areas for wind technology development were investigated based on annual wind resources, terrain, land usage, and other factors such as culturally sensitive sites. The result is a preliminary assessment of wind energy potential on Turtle Mountain lands, which can be used to justify further investigation and investment into determining the feasibility of future wind technology projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore application of landslide susceptibility mapping using gradient-boosted decision trees: a Gulf of Mexico case study

Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.

Dyer, Alec S. (ORCID:0000000219813904)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Can machine learning improve the model representation of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate in the boundary layer for complex terrain?

Current turbulence parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models at the mesoscale assume a local equilibrium between production and dissipation of turbulence. As this assumption does not hold at fine horizontal resolutions, improved ways to represent turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate (ϵ) are needed. Here, we use a 6-week data set of turbulence measurements from 184 sonic anemometers in complex terrain at the Perdigão field campaign to suggest improved representations of dissipation rate. First, we demonstrate that the widely used Mellor, Yamada, Nakanishi, and Niino (MYNN) parameterization of TKE dissipation rate leads to a large inaccuracy and bias in the representation of ϵ. Next, we assess the potential of machine-learning techniques to predict TKE dissipation rate from a set of atmospheric and terrain-related features. We train and test several machine-learning algorithms using the data at Perdigão, and we find that the models eliminate the bias MYNN currently shows in representing ϵ, while also reducing the average error by up to almost 40 %. Of all the variables included in the algorithms, TKE is the variable responsible for most of the variability of ϵ, and a strong positive correlation exists between the two. These results suggest further consideration of machine-learning techniques to enhance parameterizations of turbulence in numerical weather prediction models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗