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DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian View on the Dr. Evil Scenario

Abstract In Defeating Dr. Evil with Self-Locating Belief , Adam Elga proposes and defends a principle of indifference for self-locating beliefs: if an individual is confident that his world contains more than one individual who is in a state subjectively indistinguishable from his own, then he should assign equal credences to the hypotheses that he is any one of these individuals. Through a sequence of thought experiments, Elga in effect claims that he can derive the credence function that should apply in such situations, thus justifying his principle of indifference. Here we argue, using a Bayesian approach, that Elga’s reasoning is circular: in analyzing the third of his thought experiments, he uses an assertion that is justifiable only if one assumes, from the start, the principle of indifference that he is attempting to justify. We agree with Elga that the assumption of equal credences is a very reasonable principle, in the absence of any reason to assign unequal credences, but we do not agree that the equality of credences can be so derived.

Azhar, Feraz↗

DOE OSTI2022

New Empirical Formulation for the Sublimational Breakup of Graupel and Dendritic Snow

Abstract Ice fragments are generated by sublimation of ice particles in subsaturated conditions in natural clouds. Conceivably, such sublimational breakup would be expected to cause ice multiplication in natural clouds. Any fragment that survives will grow to become ice precipitation that may sublimate and fragment further. As a first step toward assessing this overlooked process, a formulation is proposed for the number of ice fragments from sublimation of ice particles for an atmospheric model. This is done by amalgamating laboratory observations from previously published studies. The concept of a “sublimated mass activity spectrum” for the breakup is applied to the dataset. The number of ice fragments is determined by the relative humidity over ice and the initial size of the parent ice particles. The new formulation applies to dendritic crystals and heavily rimed particles only. Finally, a thought experiment is performed for an idealized scenario of subsaturation with in-cloud descent. Scaling analysis yields an estimate of an ice enhancement ratio of about 5 (10) within a weak deep convective downdraft of about 2 m s −1 , for an initial monodisperse population of dendritic snow (graupel) particles of 3 L −1 and 2 mm. During descent, there is a dynamic equilibrium between continual emission of fragments and their depletion by sublimation. A simplified bin microphysics parcel model exhibits this dynamical quasi equilibrium, consistent with the thought experiment. The fragments have average lifetimes of around 90 and 70 s for dendrites and graupel, respectively. Sublimational breakup is predicted to cause significant secondary ice production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diagnosis of information scrambling from Hamiltonian evolution under decoherence

We apply a quantum teleportation protocol based on the Hayden-Preskill thought experiment to quantify how scrambling a given quantum evolution is. It has an advantage over the direct measurement of out-of time ordered correlators when used to diagnose the information scrambling in the presence of decoherence effects stemming from a noisy quantum device. We demonstrate the protocol by applying it to two physical systems: Ising spin chain and SU(2) lattice Yang-Mills theory. To this end, we numerically simulate the time evolution of the two theories in the Hamiltonian formalism. The lattice Yang-Mills theory is implemented with a suitable truncation of Hilbert space on the basis of the Kogut-Susskind formalism. On a two-leg ladder geometry and with the lowest nontrivial spin representations, it can be mapped to a spin chain, which we call Yang-Mills-Ising model and is also directly applicable to future digital quantum simulations. Here, we find that the Yang-Mills-Ising model shows the signal of information scrambling at late times.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Black hole cannibalism

Here, we consider a version of the Hayden–Preskill thought experiment in which the message thrown into the black hole is itself a smaller black hole. We then discuss the implications of the existence of a recovery channel for this black hole message at asymptotic infinity, resulting in a sharpening of the black hole information paradox for observers who never need to approach a horizon. We suggest decoherence mechanisms as a way of resolving this sharpened paradox.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Isotopic Limit of Recycling

Despite advances in recycling technologies and practices, the world still mostly operates on a once-through materials use cycle. The once-through approach to the materials supply chain cannot work into perpetuity. The vast majority of current recycling efforts focus on mechanical or chemical separation-based techniques and are often subsequently limited on the number of times a component can be recycled or upcycled. By looking at things from a particle physics and nuclear history perspective, we propose a thought experiment to determine the physical limit of recycling and propose subsequent limits and standards to evaluate all recycling efforts. This uncommon approach to analysis demonstrates that the current limits to recycling are not physical in nature but engineering.

Lang, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rapid Generation of a Macroscopic Schrödinger Cat State of Atoms with Parity-Independent Orientation

We show that using the process of one-axis-twist squeezing in an echo configuration, it is possible to control the orientation of the macroscopic magnetic moment of a large number of atoms by manipulating the quantum state of a single atom that is physically isolated from the ensemble. With this control technique, it is also possible to entangle an ensemble with a single atom deterministically, which mimics the thought experiment known as the Schrödinger cat. In addition, this technique would make it possible to generate a mesoscopic Schrödinger cat state for a large number of atoms far more rapidly that the conventional process for generating such a state, with an orientation that is independent of the parity of the number of atoms. Apart from the echo configuration, we have also investigated the behavior of one-axis-twist squeezing for some special values of the squeezing parameter. We find that the squeezing propagator can be expressed as the sum of n rotation operators if the product of n and the squeezing parameter equals pi, where n is a non-zero integer. A direct consequence of this property of one-axis-twist squeezing is that there is a hidden order in a squeezed state generated under this condition even if its Husimi quasi-probability distribution looks irregular.

Li, Jinyang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Expanding the Baseline: Community Perspectives on Equity in Land-Based Wind Energy Development and Operations

This report covers the fourth and final phase of the Wind Energy Equity Engagement Series (WEEES), a series of community listening sessions on the topic of wind energy equity. In the summer and fall of 2023, a research team at NREL partnered with community-based organizations in three different cities across the U.S. to co-design and co-host the listening sessions. These gatherings were an opportunity for community members to share their past experiences with wind energy development and envision what an equitable wind energy future could look like where they live. The NREL team qualitatively analyzed notes taken during the listening sessions to build an understanding of participants' thoughts and experiences regarding wind energy equity. The team organized the analysis according to key themes that emerged during the first three phases of WEEES, each of which has three or four relevant subthemes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transfer learning driven design optimization for inertial confinement fusion

Transfer learning is a promising approach to create predictive models that incorporate simulation and experimental data into a common framework. In this technique, a neural network is first trained on a large database of simulations and then partially retrained on sparse sets of experimental data to adjust predictions to be more consistent with reality. Previously, this technique has been used to create predictive models of Omega [Humbird et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 48, 61–70 (2019)] and NIF [Humbird et al., Phys. Plasmas 28, 042709 (2021); Kustowski et al., Mach. Learn. 3, 015035 (2022)] inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments that are more accurate than simulations alone. Here, in this work, we conduct a transfer learning driven hypothetical ICF campaign in which the goal is to maximize experimental neutron yield via Bayesian optimization. The transfer learning model achieves yields within 5% of the maximum achievable yield in a modest-sized design space in fewer than 20 experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this method is more efficient at optimizing designs than traditional model calibration techniques commonly employed in ICF design. Such an approach to ICF design could enable robust optimization of experimental performance under uncertainty.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization (MDO) for Co-Designed Transmission & Distribution Electric Grid Planning

This paper describes early experiences and example use cases applying multi-disciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDO) to the integrated design of power grids. Adapted from aerospace, MDO enables combining multiple existing tools into a coordinated optimization. Here we use MDO to simultaneously capture integrated transmission-distribution and investment-engineering trade-offs in an automated framework. Example use cases showcase prototype interactions among existing grid models using MDO and hint at the types of integrated analyses enabled by this approach. In addition, we share experiences and thoughts on grid-specific challenges and opportunities to help advance further work in this area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differential methods for assessing sensitivity in biological models

Differential sensitivity analysis is indispensable in fitting parameters, understanding uncertainty, and forecasting the results of both thought and lab experiments. Although there are many methods currently available for performing differential sensitivity analysis of biological models, it can be difficult to determine which method is best suited for a particular model. In this paper, we explain a variety of differential sensitivity methods and assess their value in some typical biological models. First, we explain the mathematical basis for three numerical methods: adjoint sensitivity analysis, complex perturbation sensitivity analysis, and forward mode sensitivity analysis. We then carry out four instructive case studies. (a) The CARRGO model for tumor-immune interaction highlights the additional information that differential sensitivity analysis provides beyond traditional naive sensitivity methods, (b) the deterministic SIR model demonstrates the value of using second-order sensitivity in refining model predictions, (c) the stochastic SIR model shows how differential sensitivity can be attacked in stochastic modeling, and (d) a discrete birth-death-migration model illustrates how the complex perturbation method of differential sensitivity can be generalized to a broader range of biological models. Finally, we compare the speed, accuracy, and ease of use of these methods. We find that forward mode automatic differentiation has the quickest computational time, while the complex perturbation method is the simplest to implement and the most generalizable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gravitational wave detection with plasma haloscopes

Searches for high frequency gravitational waves using cavities based on the Gertsenshtein effect were recently proposed, building off existing axion dark matter experiments. In particular, the sensitivity of axion dark matter experiments using metamaterial plasmas (tunable plasma haloscopes) to gravitational waves has not been explored in detail. Here we perform a full analysis of gravitational wave detection in plasma haloscopes, showing that the baseline design of experiments such as ALPHA is several orders of magnitude less sensitive than previously thought. We show how simple changes to the experiment can recover that sensitivity and lead to a powerful gravitational wave detector in the 𝒪⁡(10–50) GHz frequency range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future TRISO fuel irradiations in the Advanced Test Reactor

AGR-5/6/7 was thought to be the last experiment in the AGR series and the last experiment directly sponsored by DOE. Over the last five years three developments have caused a reevaluation of that assumption. First is that interest in TRISO fueled reactors has spiked dramatically. Virtually all of the new reactor designs are for SMRs or micro-reactors . Some of these reactors use new fuel designs with higher concentrations of U235. This results in changes to the particle design and even fuel pellet design. Second, a design flaw in AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 1 produced a large number of particle failures which resulted in the loss of data from Capsule 1. An additional irradiation could fill in this lost data set. Thirdly, many reactor developers have decided to use AGR spec fuel but different irradiation goals have been identified.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Women in Nuclear Security: The United Arab Emirates Story

Historically in the United Arab Emirates, security personnel stationed at nuclear sites were typically men with military or policing backgrounds. Although these groups bring important, transferrable skills and experience to the nuclear security mission, some Emirati stakeholders recognize the increased benefit of a greater diversity of voices and backgrounds within the nuclear security team hierarchy. By recruiting from a wider range of disciplines and encouraging gender diversity, the security team could develop broader insight into security challenges, and a greater variety of perspectives could bring forth more innovative solutions. When aligning a diverse, multinational workforce with a common mission, all members of a security organization must fundamentally change their individual approaches to the work; the entire staff must be on the same page. This can be particularly challenging for some people who find it difficult to transition from a framework of beliefs because of past experiences based on prescriptive, exclusionary, hierarchical thought. Also, national cultural values are learned early, held deeply, and change slowly over the course of generations, and inherent biases rooted in these values can create barriers to the collective progress of a team. Creating a more open, diverse, and transparent culture for the team by accepting a unique, egalitarian, professional nuclear security culture that all members adhere to can be a challenging task for some. In this article, I share my experiences related to professional roadblocks, personal challenges, and lessons learned, particularly those regarding the empowerment of women in science and engineering, while developing and establishing the United Arab Emirates nuclear security program. I also discuss the support (and underrepresentation) of women, including those currently in critical leadership positions, and their careers in nuclear security.

Barakah Nuclear Power Plant↗

DOE OSTI2023

Structural study of hcp and liquid iron under shock compression up to 275 GPa

Here we combine nanosecond laser shock compression with in situ picosecond x-ray diffraction to provide structural data on iron up to 275 GPa. We constrain the extent of hcp-liquid coexistence, the onset of total melt, and the structure within the liquid phase. Our results indicate that iron, under shock compression, melts completely by 258(8) GPa. A coordination number analysis indicates that iron is a simple liquid at these pressure-temperature conditions. We also perform texture analysis between the ambient body-centered-cubic (bcc) α, and the hexagonal-closed-packed (hcp) high-pressure ε-phase. We rule out the Rong-Dunlop orientation relationship (OR) between the α and ε - phase s. However, we cannot distinguish between three other closely related ORs: Burger's, Mao-Bassett-Takahashi, and Potter's OR. The solid-liquid coexistence region is constrained from a melt onset pressure of 225(3) GPa from previously published sound speed measurements and full melt [246.5(1.8)–258(8) GPa] from x-ray diffraction measurements, with an associated maximum latent heat of melting of 623 J/g. This value is lower than recently reported theoretical estimates and suggests that the contribution to the earth's geodynamo energy budget from heat release due to freezing of the inner core is smaller than previously thought. Melt pressures for these nanosecond shock experiments are consistent with gas gun shock experiments that last for microseconds, indicating that the melt transition occurs rapidly.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

L'Arlesienne de ROOT

Over many years, ROOT users have repeatedly stumbled over—and loudly rediscovered—the infamous 1 GB limit on individual I/O operations, a constraint that somehow survived long past the era when anyone thought a gigabyte was “a lot.” As experiments embraced ever-larger objects and collections, this limit became an increasingly unavoidable rite of passage. This contribution recounts the sustained, multi-year quest by ROOT I/O developers to finally retire this relic, navigating a maze of legacy APIs, memory-management assumptions, and integer boundaries that seemed determined to preserve the status quo. We describe how internal interfaces were carefully modernized to introduce fully 64-bit–capable code paths without breaking the mountains of existing user code that would definitely have noticed. With the limit now lifted, ROOT can finally handle multi-gigabyte objects in a single read or write operation, even when splitting them into an RNTuple is not an option (we’re looking at you, large RooWorkspaces and giant histograms), liberating users from yet another “fun” debugging adventure and clearing the way for the massive analyses of the HL-LHC and beyond.

Canal, Philippe G. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000277487↗

DOE OSTI2026

L'Arlesienne de ROOT

Canal, Philippe G. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000277487↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Electrode Contamination Mitigation at 0.5 MA Scale

The Z Machine at Sandia National Laboratories uses current pulses with peaks up to 27 MA to drive target implosions and generate high energy density conditions of interest for stockpile stewardship programs pertinent to the NNSA program portfolio . Physical processes in the region near the Z Machine target create electrode plasmas which seed parasitic current loss that reduce the performance and output of a Z experiment. Electrode surface contaminants (hydrogen, water, hydrocarbons) are thought to be the primary constituent of electrode plasmas which contribute to loss mechanisms. The Sandia team explore d in situ heating and plasma discharge techniques by integrating requisite infrastructure into Sandia's Mykonos LTD accelerator, addressing potential impacts to accelerator operation, and reporting on the impact of these techniques on electrode plasma formation and shot performance. The in situ discharge cleaning utilizes the electrodes of the accelerator to excite an argon-oxygen plasma to sputter and chemically react contaminants from electrode surfaces. Insulating breaks are required to isolate the plasma in electrode regions where loss processes are most likely to occur. The shots on Mykonos validate that these breaks do not perturb experiment performance, reducing the uncertainty on the largest unknown about the in situ cleaning system. Preliminary observations with electrical and optical diagnostics suggest that electrode plasma formation is delayed, and overall inventory has been substantively reduced. In situ heating embeds cartridge heaters into accelerator electrodes and employs a thermal bakeout to rapidly desorb contaminants from electrode surfaces. For the first time, additively manufactured (AM) electrode assemblies were used on a low impedance accelerator to integrate cooling channels and manage thermal gradients. Challenges with poor supplier fabrication to specifications, load alignment, thermal expansion and hardware movement and warpage appears to have introduced large variability in observed loss, though, preventing strong assertions of loss reduction via in situ heating. At this time, an in situ discharge cleaning process offers the lowest risk path to reduce electrode contaminant inventories on Z, though we recommend continuing to develop both approaches. Additional engineering and testing are required to improve the implementation of both systems. .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seal Strength Calculations for Low Mass DDT Vessel

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is collaborating with Colorado School of Mines (Mines), to field the first dynamic experiments on the 3-ring flash radiography system (3-ring). One set of experiments for 3-ring concerns the deflagration to detonation transition (DDT), within a sealed column of high-explosives. The high-explosive material is ignited at one end with a BK-80, an igniter made from Boron Potassium-Nitrate (BKNO 3 ). The initial deflagration reaction will increase the pressure in the sealed vessel, resulting in the formation of a dense "plug" of material ahead of the deflagration front. The transition to detonation is thought to be related to the plug formation. Previous experiments have been able to resolve the plug geometry, but only in a two dimensional radio-graph. 3-ring offers a novel diagnostic tool which could provide three dimensional density fields via few-view reconstruction algorithms and computed tomography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗