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A numerical study of the effects of a large sandbar upon sea breeze development

Two-dimensional numerical simulations of sea breeze development over a large sandbar on the North Sea coast of Germany are reported. The numerical model used in these experiments contains a detailed treatment of soil moisture, which allows evaluation of the effects of differential surface characteristics on the airflow pattern. Results of the simulations indicate that the contrast between the moist sandbar and adjacent dry land, the tidal inundation of the sandbar, and the westward penetration of the Baltic sea breeze play important roles in the development of mesoscale airflow patterns in the sandbar region.

Kessler, R. C.↗

Estuarine Sediment Deposition during Wetland Restoration: A GIS and Remote Sensing Modeling Approach

Restoration of the industrial salt flats in the San Francisco Bay, California is an ongoing wetland rehabilitation project. Remote sensing maps of suspended sediment concentration, and other GIS predictor variables were used to model sediment deposition within these recently restored ponds. Suspended sediment concentrations were calibrated to reflectance values from Landsat TM 5 and ASTER using three statistical techniques -- linear regression, multivariate regression, and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to map suspended sediment concentrations. Multivariate and ANN regressions using ASTER proved to be the most accurate methods, yielding r2 values of 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. Predictor variables such as sediment grain size and tidal frequency were used in the Marsh Sedimentation (MARSED) model for predicting deposition rates for three years. MARSED results for a fully restored pond show a root mean square deviation (RMSD) of 66.8 mm (<1) between modeled and field observations. This model was further applied to a pond breached in November 2010 and indicated that the recently breached pond will reach equilibrium levels after 60 months of tidal inundation.

Newcomer, Michelle↗

High-Resolution Forest Canopy Height Estimation in an African Blue Carbon Ecosystem

Mangrove forests are one of the most productive and carbon dense ecosystems that are only found at tidally inundated coastal areas. Forest canopy height is an important measure for modeling carbon and biomass dynamics, as well as land cover change. By taking advantage of the flat terrain and dense canopy cover, the present study derived digital surface models (DSMs) using stereophotogrammetric techniques on high-resolution spaceborne imagery (HRSI) for southern Mozambique. A mean-weighted ground surface elevation factor was subtracted from the HRSI DSM to accurately estimate the canopy height in mangrove forests in southern Mozambique. The mean and H100 tree height measured in both the field and with the digital canopy model provided the most accurate results with a vertical error of 1.18-1.84 m, respectively. Distinct patterns were identified in the HRSI canopy height map that could not be discerned from coarse shuttle radar topography mission canopy maps even though the mode and distribution of canopy heights were similar over the same area. Through further investigation, HRSI DSMs have the potential of providing a new type of three-dimensional dataset that could serve as calibration/validation data for other DSMs generated from spaceborne datasets with much larger global coverage. HSRI DSMs could be used in lieu of Lidar acquisitions for canopy height and forest biomass estimation, and be combined with passive optical data to improve land cover classifications.

HRSI↗

Coastal California Water Resources II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Detect and Assess the Impacts of Estuarine Breach Events for Improved Coastal Wetland Monitoring and Management

Estuaries are dynamic environments that provide a host of vital ecosystem services. California’s Marine Life Protection Act protects such ecosystems by creating Marine Protected Areas. California has approximately 440,000 acres of estuarine habitats as well as 23 Estuarine Marine Protected Areas (EMPAs); thus, in situ data collection is often difficult due to time and resource constraints. This project used remote sensing to gather data that examined the health and dynamics of California EMPAs in order to supplement ground-based field measurements. Through the use of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) and Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), this project assessed mouth state, inundation extent, turbidity, temperature, and tidal measurements for observable estuaries. The Normalized Water Difference Index from Sentinel-2 MSI captured estuary mouth state and inundation extent. Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI detected differences in water quality metrics that correlated to changes in estuary mouth state (i.e., open or closed). The team’s California Estuary Assessment (CEA) tool in Google Earth Engine was successful in analyzing estuary mouth state, inundation, and water quality. It was most effective when breach events were larger than 10 meters in resolution, water surface was smooth, and imagery was unimpeded by algae or sun glint. The CEA tool will allow the partners, the Ocean Protection Council, Central Coast Wetlands Group, Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, and University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and Davis (UCD), to better understand estuary dynamics and more effectively conduct in situ estuary monitoring.

Sarah Payne↗

Utilizing Remote Sensing to Detect and Assess the Impacts of Estuarine Breach Events for Improved Coastal Wetland Monitoring and Management

Estuaries are extremely dynamic environments that provide a host of vital ecosystem services. California’s Marine Life Protection Act protects such ecosystems by creating Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). California has approximately 440,000 acres of estuarine habitat as well as 23 Estuarine Marine Protected Areas (EMPAs). Thus, in situ data collection is often difficult due to time and resource constraints. This project used remote sensing to gather data that examined the health and dynamics of California EMPAs to supplement ground-based field measurements. Through the use of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), this project assessed mouth state, inundation extent, turbidity, temperature, and tidal measurements for observable estuaries. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) from Sentinel-2 MSI captured estuary mouth state and inundation extent. Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI detected differences in water quality metrics that correlated to changes in estuary mouth state (i.e., open or closed) through algorithms in Google Earth Engine (GEE). The GEE California Estuary Assessment (CEA) tool was created with partner input throughout development and culminated in a graphical user interface tailored to management needs. The CEA tool will allow the partners, the Ocean Protection Council, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories’ Central Coast Wetlands Group, the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, and University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and Davis (UCD), to better understand estuary dynamics and facilitate informed management decisions through satellite-based Earth observations.

Alex Gunnerson↗

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

Comparative studies of lunar, Martian, and Mercurian craters and plains

The spatial distribution of lunar smooth plains is not consistent with experimental simulations of melt rock emplacement during cratering in layered materials. Nor is it consistent with the location of melt rocks (suevite) near the Ries basin. Lunar smooth plains surrounding Imbrium are most extensive in areas where pre-existing craters are most degraded. This observation suggests that plains form by impact of basin and local primary crater ejecta, together with deposition of debris excavated by the resultant secondary cratering events. Craters within the belt of smooth plains surrounding the Caloris basin on Mercury are most degraded nearest the basin; this suggests that Mercurian smooth plains must, at least in part, be emplaced in a manner similar to plains surrounding the Imbrium basin. Mercurian uplands have a primary crater population deficient in small crater diameters (less than approximately 30 km). Lunar uplands far from major basins also have a crater population deficient in small crater sizes. Martian cratered terrain exhibits a similar crater deficiency, which was previously interpreted as due to obliteration of small craters (less than approximately 30 km) by some surface process. A crater size distribution deficient in small sizes (less than approximately 30 km) on the Mercurian, lunar, and Martian uplands has implications for the origin of debris bombarding the inner solar system during the period recorded by these surfaces. It is proposed that during late heavy bombardment, the inner solar system was inundated with bodies that broke up under tidal fission as they approached the planets. Such a mechanism would lend to production of a crater population deficient in small crater sizes, and it would also explain the large degree of spatial clustering of primary craters on Mercury, the moon, and Mars.

Oberbeck, V. R.↗

A Storm Surge and Inundation Model of the Back River Watershed at NASA Langley Research Center

This report on a Virginia Institute for Marine Science project demonstrates that the sub-grid modeling technology (now as part of Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System, CIPS) can incorporate high-resolution Lidar measurements provided by NASA Langley Research Center into the sub-grid model framework to resolve detailed topographic features for use as a hydrological transport model for run-off simulations within NASA Langley and Langley Air Force Base. The rainfall over land accumulates in the ditches/channels resolved via the model sub-grid was tested to simulate the run-off induced by heavy precipitation. Possessing both the capabilities for storm surge and run-off simulations, the CIPS model was then applied to simulate real storm events starting with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. It will be shown that the model can generate highly accurate on-land inundation maps as demonstrated by excellent comparison of the Langley tidal gauge time series data (CAPABLE.larc.nasa.gov) and spatial patterns of real storm wrack line measurements with the model results simulated during Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and a 2009 Nor'easter. With confidence built upon the model's performance, sea level rise scenarios from the ICCP (International Climate Change Partnership) were also included in the model scenario runs to simulate future inundation cases.

Loftis, Jon Derek↗

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗

The derivation of sub-canopy surface terrain models of coastal forests using synthetic aperture radar

Radar data acquired by the Shuttle Imaging Radar-B mission covering a portion of the Mouths of the Ganges forests were used to create a terrain model for use in determining tidal flow and eventual nutrient transport from the forest to the marine habitat. Results show that good digital topographic terrain models of wet coastal forests can be generated using multiple sets of L-band SAR and ancillary tide elevation data. The dominance of the interaction phenomenon in the radar backscatter of flooded forests can be used to create sub-canopy inundation maps which when merged with tide surface data can be used to generate reasonable topographic models. Ideally models could be improved by using multiple sets of data at a constant incidence angle over the total tide range. The optimal angle for the SAR depends upon the characteristics of the forest. The range of 46 to 57 deg seems applicable to the 12.5 m tall closed canopy in this example. Such models can be an extremely valuable tool for studying and mapping the mangal ecosystem.

Imhoff, M. L.↗

Sediment concentration mapping in tidal estuaries

An analytical procedure has been developed that considers the ERTS-1 multispectral scanner as a reflectance spectrophotometer. ADP techniques requiring only very limited computer capability are utilized to search the data defining the spectral reflectance characteristics of a scene on a pixel-by-pixel basis, identify each pixel whose spectral reflectance matches a reference spectrum, and generate maps that identify pixel locations where spectrum matches occur and identify the spectrum that was matched. If the reference spectra are known to represent a specific condition on the ground, a map of the distribution of that condition can be output as a dimensionally accurate overlay to maps of any selected scale. Two applications are described: (1) mapping the distribution of water masses exhibiting specific suspended sediment concentrations; and (2) determining the location and delineation of surface water bodies in the southeastern U. S. The techniques described are being successfully used to map the land area inundated by the 1973 spring flood in the Lower Mississippi River Valley, map sediment distributions in Lake Pontchartrain (in Louisiana) as a result of opening the Bonnet Carre Floodway during the spring flood, and inventory lakes and reservoirs.

Williamson, A. N.↗

Storm Surge Measurement with an Airborne Scanning Radar Altimeter

Over the years, hurricane track and intensity forecasts and storm surge models and the digital terrain and bathymetry data they depend on have improved significantly. Strides have also been made in knowledge of the detailed variation of the surface wind field driving the surge. The area of least improvement has been in obtaining data on the details of the temporal/spatial variation of the storm surge dome of water as it evolves and inundates the land to evaluate the performance of the numerical models. Tide gages in the vicinity of the landfall are frequently destroyed by the surge. Survey crews dispatched after the event provide no temporal information and only indirect indications of the maximum surge envelope over land. The landfall of Hurricane Bonnie on 26 August 1998, with a surge less than 2 m, provided an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the potential benefits of direct airborne measurement of the temporal/spatial evolution of storm surge. Despite a 160 m variation in aircraft altitude, an 11.5 m variation in the elevation of the mean sea surface relative to the ellipsoid over the flight track, and the tidal variation over the 5 hour data acquisition interval, a survey-quality Global Positioning System (GPS) aircraft trajectory allowed the NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter carried by a NOAA hurricane research aircraft to produce storm surge measurements that generally fell between the predictions of the NOAA SLOSH model and the North Carolina State University storm surge model.

Wright, C. W.↗

A Decade of Salt Marsh Elevation Change in New York City’s Coastal Urban Parks

Coastal salt marshes of the eastern United States are particularly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise, and urban marshes are at greater risk of erosion, inundation, and conversion to mudflat if left unmanaged. To guide New York City (NYC) salt marsh restoration strategies, NYC Parks collected up to 10 years of salt marsh elevation change data through 2020 at six salt marsh sites using the Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon (SET-MH) method, conducted a salt marsh trends analysis to determine shoreline change from 1974 to 2012, and conducted a salt marsh conditions assessment. We found that the citywide average surface elevation trend of 3.31 mm yr −1 was not significantly different from the 30-year (1990–2020) Relative Sea Level Rise of 4.23 mm yr −1 at The Battery, NY, tide station, probably due to high variability across and within sites. We also found that accretion rates differed across sites and watersheds, and sites situated lower in the tidal zone had higher accretion rates. Notably, Jamaica Bay’s Idlewild salt marsh, long suspected of being sediment-starved and ranking lowest in our conditions assessment, had the highest accretion rate at 9.5 mm yr −1 . Our salt marsh trends analysis also showed marsh loss at the shoreline edge, bare ground cover, and other indicators of marsh degradation. In mitigating marsh loss, the design grades for our recent wetland restoration projects enlarge the upper elevation ranges of the low- and high-marsh zones and incorporate wider and more gradual slopes in upland transition zones to enable inland marsh migration.

Salt marsh elevation change↗