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At least 19 records

Hybrid Imitation Learning for Real-Time Service Restoration in Resilient Distribution Systems

Self-healing capability is a critical factor for a resilient distribution system, which requires intelligent agents to automatically perform service restoration online, including network reconfiguration and reactive power dispatch. Here, the article proposes the imitation learning framework for training such an agent, where the agent will interact with an expert built based on the mixed-integer program to learn its optimal policy, and therefore significantly improve the training efficiency compared with exploration-dominant reinforcement learning (RL) methods. This significantly improved training efficiency makes the training problem under N-k scenarios tractable. A hybrid policy network is proposed to handle tie-line operations and reactive power dispatch simultaneously to further improve the restoration performance. The 33-bus and 119-bus systems with N-k disturbances are employed to conduct the training. The results indicate that the proposed method outperforms traditional RL algorithms such as the deep-Q network.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Time-Constrained Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem in Urban E-Commerce Delivery

Electric vehicle routing problems can be particularly complex when recharging must be performed mid-route. In some applications, such as e-commerce parcel delivery truck routing, however, mid-route recharging may not be necessary because of constraints on vehicle capacities and the maximum allowed time for delivery. In this study, we develop a mixed-integer optimization model that exactly solves such a time-constrained capacitated vehicle routing problem, especially of interest for e-commerce parcel delivery vehicles. We compare our solution method with an existing metaheuristic and carry out exhaustive case studies considering four U.S. cities—Austin, TX; Bloomington, IL; Chicago, IL; and Detroit, MI—and two vehicle types: conventional vehicles and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In these studies we examine the impact of vehicle capacity, maximum allowed travel time, service time (dwelling time to physically deliver the parcel), and BEV range on system-level performance metrics, including vehicle miles traveled (VMT). We find that the service time followed by the vehicle capacity plays a key role in the performance of our approach. We assume an 80-mi BEV range as a baseline without mid-route recharging. Our results show that the BEV range has a minimal impact on performance metrics because the VMT per vehicle averages around 72 mi. In a case study for shared-economy parcel deliveries, we observe that VMT could be reduced by 38.8% in Austin if service providers were to operate their distribution centers jointly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Endogeneity of pedestrian survival time and emergency medical service response time: Variations across disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities

The Vision Zero-Safe Systems Approach prioritizes fast access to Emergency Medical Services (EMS) to improve the survivability of road users in transportation crashes, especially concerning the recent increase in pedestrian-involved crashes. Pedestrian crashes resulting in immediate or early death are considerably more severe than those taking longer. The time gap between injury and fatality is known as survival time, and it heavily relies on EMS response time. The characteristics of the crash location may be associated with EMS response and survival time. A US Department of Transportation initiative identifies communities often facing challenges. Six disadvantaged community (DAC) indicators, including economy, environment, equity, health, resilience, and transportation access, enable an analysis of how survival and EMS response times vary across DACs and non-DACs. To this end, this study created a unique and comprehensive database by linking DACs data with 2017–2021 pedestrian-involved fatal crashes. This study utilizes two-stage residual inclusion models with segmentation for DACs and non-DACs accounting for the endogenous relationship between EMS response and pedestrian survival time. The results indicate that EMS response time is higher and pedestrian survival time is lower in DACs than in non-DACs. A delayed EMS response time is associated with a greater reduction in survival time in DACs compared to non-DACs. Factors, e.g., nighttime and interstate crashes, contribute to higher EMS response time, while pedestrian drugs, driver speeding, and hit-and-run behaviors are associated with a greater reduction in survival time in DACs than non-DACs. Finally, the implications of the findings are discussed in the paper.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Exact Algorithm for the Linear Tape Scheduling Problem

Magnetic tapes are often considered as an outdated storage technology, yet they are still used to store huge amounts of data. Their main interests are a large capacity and a low price per gigabyte, which come at the cost of a much larger file access time than on disks. With tapes, finding the right ordering of multiple file accesses is thus key to performance. Moving the reading head back and forth along a kilometer long tape has a non-negligible cost and unnecessary movements thus have to be avoided. However, the optimization of tape request ordering has rarely been studied in the scheduling literature, much less than I/O scheduling on disks. For instance, minimizing the average service time for several read requests on a linear tape remains an open question. Therefore, in this paper, we aim at improving the quality of service experienced by users of tape storage systems, and not only the peak performance of such systems. To this end, we propose a reasonable polynomial-time exact algorithm while this problem and simpler variants have been conjectured NP-hard. We also refine the proposed model by considering U-turn penalty costs accounting for inherent mechanical accelerations. Then, we propose a low-cost variant of our optimal algorithm by restricting the solution space, yet still yielding an accurate suboptimal solution. Finally, we compare our algorithms to existing solutions from the literature on logs of the mass storage management system of a major datacenter. This allows us to assess the quality of previous solutions and the improvement achieved by our low-cost algorithm. Aiming for reproducibility, we make available the complete implementation of the algorithms used in our evaluation, alongside the dataset of tape requests that is, to the best of our knowledge, the first of its kind to be publicly released.

Honoré, Valentin↗

Extreme-scale EV charging infrastructure planning for last-mile delivery using high-performance parallel computing

Here, this paper addresses stochastic charger location and allocation problems under queue congestion for last-mile delivery using electric vehicles (EVs). The objective is to decide where to open charging stations and how many chargers of each type to install, subject to budgetary and waiting-time constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer non-linear program, where each station-charger pair is modeled as a multiserver queue with stochastic arrivals and service times to capture the notion of waiting in fleet operations. The model is extremely large, with billions of variables and constraints for a typical metropolitan area; even loading the model in solver memory is difficult, let alone solving it. To address this challenge, we develop a Lagrangian-based dual decomposition framework that decomposes the problem by station and leverages parallelization on high-performance computing systems, where the subproblems are solved by using a cutting plane method and their solutions are collected at the master level. We also develop a three-step rounding heuristic to transform the fractional subproblem solutions into feasible integral solutions. Computational experiments on data from the Chicago metropolitan area with hundreds of thousands of households and thousands of candidate stations show that our approach produces high-quality solutions in cases where existing exact methods cannot even load the model in memory. We also analyze various policy scenarios, demonstrating that combining existing depots with newly built stations under multiagency collaboration substantially reduces costs and congestion. These findings offer a scalable and efficient framework for developing sustainable large-scale EV charging networks.

Capacity allocation↗

Atom Probe characterization of neutron irradiated commercial ZIRLO® and AXIOM X2® alloys

As part of the Mechanistic Understanding of ZIrconium Corrosion (MUZIC) program, this team has been instrumental to obtain EPRI and Westinghouse sponsorships to prepare the neutron irradiated ZIRLO® and X2® from Vogtle nuclear power plant and ship them from Studsvik’s (Sweden) hot cells to Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to be part of the NSUF library. The uniqueness of these sets of neutron irradiated alloys is that they are at the same two extremes of the fuel cycles, allowing us to study the microchemistry evolution as a function of irradiation doses, exposure time and solute content. Advanced commercial Zirconium-Niobium (Zr-Nb) alloys, such as ZIRLO® and AXIOM®, have been developed by Westinghouse to enhance the corrosion resistance of fuel cladding material for longer service time. This study specifically aims at investigating the neutron irradiation induced Nb redistribution in AXIOM® X2® to understand the effect of neutron irradiation induced microchemistry changes and the irradiation enhanced corrosion resistance observed in ZrNb alloys. The detailed sample information on chemical composition and irradiation is given in shown in Table 1a and 1b respectively. To study the neutron IIP/nanoclusters and Nb concentration in the solid solution, atom probe tomography (APT) is the primary tool to obtain reliable chemical information. APT specimens were prepared in shielded focused ion beam (FIB) at the Irradiated Materials Characterization Laboratory (IMCL) at INL followed by APT analysis at CAES facility using LEAP 4000XR

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a fundamental component in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to increase the plant's dispatchability, capacity factor, while reducing the levelized cost of electricity. In central receivers CSP plants, nitrate molten salts have been used for several years for operation temperatures of up to 565 degrees C. Despite many efforts to advance nitrate salt to higher operation temperatures (even considering a replacement with molten chloride salts) to achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies, the 565 degrees C temperature is currently considered the state-of-the art. Although molten salt tanks have been broadly deployed in commercial CSP plants worldwide, several failures have been reported in these tanks after a few months or years of operation, causing significant economic loss and mistrust in CSP technologies. Most of these failures are associated with the infancy of the technology and multiple issues related to tank design, fabrication, commissioning, and aggressive operation. A technical standard dedicated to the design and fabrication of molten nitrate TES tanks does not exist today. Current in-service molten salt tanks have been generally designed based on the American Petroleum Institute's (API) 650 and ASME Section II standards. The API 650 code provides guidelines for dimensions and fabrication for oil storage tanks up to 260 degrees C. The ASME standard provides allowable stress values for various materials at a range of temperatures and conditions. Both standards seem to be limited for molten salt TES tanks where high temperatures, thermal cycling, and transient conditions are expected. In 2020, NREL released the Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study (NREL/TP-5500-75763) that summarized multiple issues in CSP plants, along with potential alternatives and recommendations to address those issues based on information collected from participants representing about 80% of operating CSP plants in the world. One of the recommendations from this study was the development of accurate and validated models to evaluate the plant's transient operation, capable of capturing the effect of short-term clouds and operator response, while being flexible in being adapted to various spatial and temporal resource data. The "Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants" project was inspired on this recommendation and was focused on (1) the development and validation of a physics-based model for a representative, commercial-scale molten salt tank, (2) performing simulations to evaluate the behavior of the tank as a function of typical plant operation conditions, (3) understanding tank failures mechanisms, (4) determining the residual stress and distortion in the tank floor after welding fabrication and evaluating their impact in the stresses developed in the tank during operation, (5) assessing the impact of key operation parameters on the temperature and stress distribution, (6) conduct a preliminary evaluation of design features to reduce stress and improve tank's reliability, and (7) estimate the tank's service life based on the stress developed under diverse operation scenarios. From the analysis conducted in the project and presented in this report, it was found that maximum stresses surpassing the yield strength point of the stainless steel (SS) 347H are developed on the tank floor near the perimeter. These large stresses are strongly influenced by the initial residual stresses and distortion of the tank floor after welding fabrication. During operation, large stresses are developed in the tank floor at high operation temperatures with large salt inventory levels during transient operation. High stresses are also related to elevated temperature gradients in the tank floor that could be attributed to insufficient mixing within the salt inflow and the salt inventory. Based on the analysis, creep is the predominant failure mechanism. However, the large stress levels could favor the plastic deformation into buckles, and crack formation due to stress relaxation cracking during cycle operation. A lifetime below 3 years was estimated for the typical plant operation conditions and a specific initial residual stress and deformation distribution of the tank floor. The estimated life agrees with the service time to failure reported in several commercial molten salt tanks. Desing and operation guidelines can be extracted from the analysis presented in this report, which could be adopted by tank manufacturers and CSP operators to advance toward an ultimate solution for tank failures by reducing residual and operational stresses to achieve a tank service life of more than 30 years. Addressing failures in molten salt TES tanks is fundamental for the CSP industry's survivability, but it is also important for other industrial and power generation applications using this technology, including nuclear and concentrating solar thermal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Timescale Optimal Operation Framework for Integrated Economic and Reliability Analysis of Hybrid Power Plants

This paper introduces a hierarchical modeling framework for hybrid power plants (HPP) to facilitate the operation of HPP in power systems similar to conventional generators (Congens) in the integrated multi-timescale optimal operation framework. To consider the uncertainties of HPP renewable power in the day-ahead scheduling, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is used. To ensure that the state-of-charge (SOC) of energy storage systems in HPPs aligns closely with the planned value for long-term reliability, real-time SOC management is incorporated. In addition, an adjustable real-time control is designed for the robust delivery of HPP real-time services. Case studies performed on a revised IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for HPP operation. Simulation results highlight that the proposed framework not only can help operators schedule HPP similar to Congens in varying weather conditions but can also maintain the frequency reliability of the system.

frequency stability↗

What are the Impacts on the HVAC System when it Provides Frequency Regulation? – A Comprehensive Case Study with a Multi-Zone Variable Air Volume (VAV) System

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings have proven to be a great asset for providing secondary frequency regulation (FR) service to the power grid. However, how the provision of FR service affects the HVAC system Quality of Service (QOS) is still largely unknown. In particular, there exists a controversy regarding the energy efficiency impact. This paper investigates how a HVAC system performance and its associated controls are impacted during and after the FR service. For the assessment, we developed a dynamic Modelica-based medium office building model as a virtual testbed with the Air Handling Unit (AHU) fans providing the FR service. Different regulation capacities (demand levels) and standard test signals under various load profiles in the U.S. are considered. The results show that FR has little or no impact on the HVAC operation and occupant thermal comfort while the building is providing the service if an appropriate regulation capacity is pre-determined. However, if the regulation capacity is overestimated, the quality of the FR service provided by the HVAC system and the HVAC energy efficiency will be affected due to the equipment operating constraints. In addition, the AHU supply air temperature fluctuates, and the controller cannot maintain the desired setpoint as the FR magnitude is increased. After the FR service time, the system takes a certain period to return to normal operation. The recovery period extends with the increase in the FR magnitude. For this case study, there exists a control conflict between the FR control and the existing HVAC control (from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018) during high load conditions, causing the fan speed to saturate. The fan power consumption could increase significantly; up to 77% increase compared to the baseline was observed. This case study demonstrates that the HVAC system controls need to be enhanced and adapted to minimize the interaction between the FR controller and the indoor environmental controls in order to preserve the HVAC system QOS while (during and after) providing satisfactory FR service.

Lu, Xing↗

Joint routing of conventional and range-extended electric vehicles in a large metropolitan network

Range-extended electric vehicles combine the higher efficiency and environmental benefits of battery-powered electric motors with the longer mileage and autonomy of conventional internal combustion engines. This combination is particularly advantageous for time-constrained delivery routing in dense urban areas, where battery recharging along routes can be too time-consuming to economically justify the use of all-electric vehicles. However, switching from electric to conventional fossil fuel modes also results in higher costs and emissions and lower efficiency. This paper analyzes this heterogeneous vehicle routing problem and describes two solution methods: an exact branch-price-and-cut algorithm and an iterated tabu search metaheuristic. From a methodological perspective, we find that the exact algorithm consistently obtains tight lower bounds that also serve to certify the metaheuristic solutions as near-optimal. From a policy standpoint, we examine a large-scale real-world case study concerning parcel deliveries in the Chicago metropolitan area and quantify various operational metrics including energy costs and vehicle miles traveled. We find that by deploying roughly 20% of range -extended vehicles with a modest all-electric range of 33 miles, parcel distributors can save energy costs by up to 17% while incurring less than 0.5% increase in vehicle miles traveled. Increasing the range to 60 miles further reduces costs by only 4%, which can alternatively be achieved by decreasing the average service time by 1 minute or increasing driver working time by 1 hour. In conclusion, our study reveals several key areas of improvement on which vehicle manufacturers, distributors, and policy makers can focus their attention.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Kubernetes for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment Data Acquisition

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiment based in the USA which is expected to start taking data in 2029. DUNE aims to precisely measure neutrino oscillation parameters by detecting neutrinos from the LBNF beamline (Fermilab) at the Far Detector, 1,300 kilometres away, in South Dakota at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. The Far Detector will consist of four cryogenic Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber detectors of 17 kT, each producing more than 1 TB/sec of data. The main requirements for the data acquisition system are the ability to run continuously for extended periods of time, with a 99% up-time requirement, and the functionality to record both beam neutrinos and low energy neutrinos from the explosion of a neighbouring supernova, should one occur during the lifetime of the experiment. The key challenges are the high data rates that the detectors generate and the deep underground environment, which places constraints on power and space. To overcome these challenges, DUNE plans to use a highly optimised C++ software suite and a server farm of about 110 nodes continuously running about two hundred multicore processes located close to the detector, 1.5 kilometres underground. Thirty nodes will be at the surface and will run around two hundred processes simultaneously. DUNE is studying the use of the Kubernetes framework to manage containerised workloads and take advantage of its resource definitions and high up-time services to run the DAQ system. Progress in deploying these systems at the CERN neutrino platform on the prototype DUNE experiments is reported.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Storage of Marine Hydrokinetic Power through Hydrogen Production

Marine hydrokinetic (MHK) power is likely to play a crucial role in future energy diversification and remote energy supply efforts. Providing a means of direct energy storage for MHK power would provide additional benefits to applications in ship microgrids and remote communities. Hydrogen (H 2 ) has long been pursued as a means of green energy storage and can be generated through electrolysis of water in an electrolyzer. However, electrolyzer technology for H 2 production is currently only possible on the commercial scale using fresh water, also a precious resource in our society. The direct electrolysis of seawater would alleviate the fresh water constraints for a new H 2 feedstock and a seawater-fed electrolyzer could be powered locally at a MHK platform. Several technical challenges exist before efficient direct seawater electrolysis can be realized. This project was designed as a demonstration of efficient direct seawater electrolysis that limits chlorine evolution, avoids use of platinum (Pt) group metals and overcomes cathode fouling over long service times.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Recent Advances in Precision Clock Synchronization Protocols for Power Grid Control Systems

With the advent of a new Precision Time Protocol specification, new opportunities abound for clock synchronization possibilities within power grid control systems. The third iteration of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Standard 1588 specification provides several new features specifically aimed at complex, wide-area deployments in which situational awareness and control require precise time agreement. This paper describes the challenges faced by existing technology, introduces the new time distribution specification, and provides examples to explain how it represents a game-changing innovation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Random Forest Regressor-Based Approach for Detecting Fault Location and Duration in Power Systems

Power system failures or outages due to short-circuits or “faults” can result in long service interruptions leading to significant socio-economic consequences. It is critical for electrical utilities to quickly ascertain fault characteristics, including location, type, and duration, to reduce the service time of an outage. Existing fault detection mechanisms (relays and digital fault recorders) are slow to communicate the fault characteristics upstream to the substations and control centers for action to be taken quickly. Fortunately, due to availability of high-resolution phasor measurement units (PMUs), more event-driven solutions can be captured in real time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach for determining fault characteristics using samples of fault trajectories. A random forest regressor (RFR)-based model is used to detect real-time fault location and its duration simultaneously. This model is based on combining multiple uncorrelated trees with state-of-the-art boosting and aggregating techniques in order to obtain robust generalizations and greater accuracy without overfitting or underfitting. Four cases were studied to evaluate the performance of RFR: 1. Detecting fault location (case 1), 2. Predicting fault duration (case 2), 3. Handling missing data (case 3), and 4. Identifying fault location and length in a real-time streaming environment (case 4). A comparative analysis was conducted between the RFR algorithm and state-of-the-art models, including deep neural network, Hoeffding tree, neural network, support vector machine, decision tree, naive Bayesian, and K-nearest neighborhood. Experiments revealed that RFR consistently outperformed the other models in detection accuracy, prediction error, and processing time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Normative Ranges for Oculomotor and Reaction Time Tests in U.S. Military Service Members and Veterans

AbstractBackground Oculomotor and reaction time tests are frequently used assessments of vestibular symptoms, traumatic brain injury (TBI), or other neurological disorders in both clinical and research contexts. When interpreting these tests it is important to have a reference interval (RI) as a comparison for what constitutes a typical/expected response; however, the current body of research has only limited information regarding normative ranges calculated according to established standards or for a military-specific sample.Purpose The purpose of the present study was to describe RIs for oculomotor and reaction time tests in a cohort of service members and veterans (SMVs) for use as comparators by clinicians and scientists.Research Design Descriptive.Study Sample Participants were prospectively enrolled in the Defense and Veterans Brain Injury Center-Traumatic Brain Injury Center of Excellence 15-year Longitudinal Traumatic Brain Injury Study. Only SMVs without a history of TBI or blast exposure were included in the RI calculations.Data Collection and Analysis The test paradigms included in this analysis were: smooth pursuit, prosaccades, antisaccades, saccades and reaction time, predictive saccades, optokinetic nystagmus, auditory reaction time, and visual reaction time. Nonparametric methods, based on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's recognized consensus standards, were used to calculate 95% RIs. A comparison between the calculated RIs and those available from previously published research is provided.Results Summary statistics and RIs were calculated for 47 outcome parameters from 13 oculomotor and reaction time tests. Sample sizes and age ranges varied across outcome parameters depending on the availability of reference values for RI calculations. The sample sizes used to calculate RIs ranged from 51 to 69. The age of SMVs included in each RI ranged from 19 to 61 years with mean ages ranging from 37 to 39 years. Similarities/differences between the RIs in the present study and those in previously published research are highly dependent on the outcome parameter; however, in general, the RIs in the present study tended to be somewhat wider.Conclusion The RIs provided in this paper can serve as comparisons for clinicians and scientists who are utilizing these oculomotor and reaction time testing paradigms in similar cohorts of patients or research participants.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗

Diaspora: Resilience-Enabling Services for Real-Time Distributed Workflows

The need for real-time processing to enable automated decision making and experimental steering has driven a shift from high-performance computing workflows on a centralized system to a distributed approach that integrates remote data sources, edge devices, and diverse compute facilities. Under this paradigm, data can be processed close to the source where it is generated, thus reducing latency and bandwidth usage. System resilience is thus a key challenge, requiring distributed workflows to survive component failures and to meet stringent quality-of-service requirements, which results in the need to mitigate anomalies such as congestion and low availability of resources. To address these challenges, we propose Diaspora, a unified resilience framework that is inspired by event-driven communication patterns used in public clouds. Specifically, we propose an event fabric that extends across sites, facilities, and computations to provide timely, reliable, and accurate information about data, application, and resource status. On top of the event fabric, we build resilience-enabling services that combine QoS-aware data streaming, resilient data views, resilient compute and data resources, and anomaly detection and prediction, all of which collectively enhance workflow resilience for these scientific cases.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Assessment of a Grade 91 Steel Forging and Seamless Pipe Section After 141,000-Hours of Operation in a Superheat Outlet Header

In this work, two unique heats of 9Cr creep strength enhanced ferritic (CSEF) steels extracted from a retired superheat outlet header after 141,000 hours of service were evaluated. These two CSEF steels were a forging manufactured to SA-182 F91 (F91) reducer and a seamless pipe produced to SA-335 P91 (P91) pipe. Their creep deformation and fracture behavior were assessed using a lever arm creep frame integrated with in-situ high-temperature digital image correlation (DIC) system. Critical metallurgical and microstructure factors, including composition, service damage, grain matrix degradation, precipitates, and inclusions were quantitatively characterized to link the performance of the two service aged F91 and P91 CSEF steels. The creep test results show the F91 and P91 steels exhibit a large variation in creep strength and creep ductility. The F91 steel fractured at 572 hours while P91 steel fractured at 1,901 hours when subjected to a test condition of 650 °C and 100 MPa. The nominal creep strains at fracture were 12.5% (F91) and 14.5% (P91), respectively. The high-resolution DIC strain measurements reveal the local creep strain in F91 was about 50% while the local creep strain in P91 was >80%. The characterization results show that the F91 steel possessed pre-existing creep damage from its time in service, a higher fraction of inclusions, and a faster matrix grain coarsening rate. These features contribute to the observed reduction in performance for the F91 steel. The context for these findings, and the importance of metallurgical risk in an integrated life management approach will be emphasized.

Wang, Yiyu↗

Improving the performance of first- and last-mile mobility services through transit coordination, real-time demand prediction, advanced reservations, and trip prioritization

Socio-demographic trends and recent economic development patterns have resulted in travel behavior changes that call for more flexible and accessible public transit options. Because flexible transit services vary in scope, size, and service type, new data-informed methods are useful to optimize services based on the specific needs of local communities and riders. In this study, real-world demand and vehicle trajectory data were used to evaluate and optimize system performance for an existing first-mile–last-mile (FMLM) service in Robinson Township, PA. A general FMLM model for arbitrary demand and service supply was then developed to quantify system performance—both travel time costs and day-to-day reliability—for various operational polices considering spatio-temporal demand variation and transportation network dynamics. Heuristics were used for optimal real-time vehicle routing in sizable real-world networks accommodating various service types and scopes. In this case study, total user costs were reduced by 18.6% when rides were coordinated with mainline fixed-route transit. Predictive routing strategies were shown to marginally improve system performance under sparse and variable spatio-temporal demand. The case study also highlights potentially large travel time and user reliability improvements—reductions of 51% and 53.8%, respectively—when trip requests were made in advance of their desired pickup time. Finally, we show that travel time reliability can be improved for time-inflexible trips with trip prioritization without increasing total user costs. These results were stable to changes in demand density.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗