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At least 19 records

Gap-filled water quality, Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index, total nitrogen (nitrate and ammonia) deposition, and land cover data trends for the Continental United States

The purpose of this work was to quantify trends in water quality, total nitrogen deposition, vegetation, and land-use trends for the Continental United States (CONUS). This dataset contains gap-filled daily and yearly in-stream carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations, discharge, and calculated exports from United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) stations across the United States of six different nitrogen parameters (Supplementary Table A1), one carbon parameter, and temperature (USGS, 2016, 2018) (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis). The final water quality dataset is merged with the normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI), total deposition (TDEP), landcover, and elevation datasets. All data are available at the CONUS scale as well as at the scale of hydrologic unit codes: (HUC) HUC8, HUC6, HUC4, and HUC2 watersheds. There are two zip files associated with this data package. I split the data into two equal sized zip files to comply with the data size limits, however the datasets are the same within each zip file. All data files can be read in directly into the R software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Ground and Satellite Column Measurements of NO2 and O3 over the Atlantic Ocean During the Deposition of Atmospheric Nitrogen to Coastal Ecosystems Experiment

In situ measurements of O3 and nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2=NOx) and remote sensing measurements of total column NO2 and O3 were collected on a ship in the North Atlantic Ocean as part of the Deposition of Atmospheric Nitrogen to Coastal Ecosystems (DANCE) campaign in July August 2014,100 km east of the mid-Atlantic United States. Relatively clean conditions for both surface in situ mixing ratio and total column O3 and NO2 measurements were observed throughout the campaign. Increased surface and column NO2 and O3 amounts were observed when a terrestrial air mass was advected over the study region. Relative to ship-based total column measurements using a Pandora over the entire study, satellite measurements overestimated total column NO2 under these relatively clean atmospheric conditions over offshore waters by an average of 16. Differences are most likely due to proximity, or lack thereof, to surface emissions; spatial averaging due to the field of view of the satellite instrument; and the lack of sensitivity of satellite measurements to the surface concentrations of pollutants. Total column O3 measurements from the shipboard Pandora showed good correlation with the satellite measurements(r 0.96), but satellite measurements were 3 systematically higher than the ship measurements, in agreement with previous studies. Derived values of boundary layer height using the surface in situ and total column measurements of NO2 are much lower than modeled and satellite-retrieved boundary layer heights, which highlight the differences in the vertical distribution between terrestrial and marine environments.

Martins, Douglas K.↗

SPRUCE Precipitation Chemistry and Bulk Atmospheric Deposition Beginning in 2013

This data set reports the chemistry of precipitation water that was collected at the SPRUCE site located in the S1 bog and calculated values of bulk atmospheric deposition of solutes in precipitation. Sample collection and analyses started during December of 2013 and will continue for the duration of the experiment. Precipitation samples were collected year round on an event-basis from up to three individual collectors. Samples were either composited or individually analyzed, depending on the total volume of water available relative to the amount needed to complete all laboratory analyses. Funnel/bottle collectors were used to collect rainfall and buckets were used to collect snowfall and mixed precipitation. Samples were analyzed for pH, specific conductivity, nutrient concentrations (ammonium, nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus, total nitrogen), cation concentrations (calcium, magnesium), anion concentrations (chloride, sulfate), total organic carbon concentrations, and natural-abundance stable isotopes of water (δ18O-H2O and δD-H2O). Bulk deposition was calculated by multiplying rainfall amount by solute concentration for ammonium, nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total nitrogen, calcium, magnesium, chloride, sulfate, and total organic carbon. All measurements were made at the 8.1-ha S1 bog forest site in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Vegetation on Fluxes of Nitric Oxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Nitrous Oxide in a Mixed Deciduous Forest Clearing

Atmosphere-terrestrial exchange of nitrogen oxides, such as nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O), plays an important role in controlling atmospheric composition and the radiative forcing of Earth’s atmosphere. In this study, the impact of vegetation ground cover on NOx (NOx = NO + NO2) and N2O fluxes in a deciduous forest clearing was studied using dynamic flow chambers located on three experimental plots with differing vegetation ground cover. Microbial emissions of NO and N2O were observed throughout the measurement period, while NO2 was exclusively deposited. Vegetation had no observable impact on NO2 deposition. Under dry conditions, total measured nitrogen emissions were numerically similar across all plots, although the N2O:NO ratio was higher for plots containing plants. Vegetation elevates soil water content through enhanced water retention, a condition that favors denitrification and more N2O production, relative to NO. Two rain events induced pulses of NO and N2O that were higher for bare soil compared to the vegetated plots. Lower NO and N2O emissions in plant-containing chambers stemmed from enhanced root uptake of N following rewetting, which diminished the amount of N substrate available for microbial NO and N2O production. The sensitivity of soil N emissions to vegetation ground cover highlights the need for more studies that investigate this effect over a wide range of ecosystems and to include vegetation effects in future parameterizations of soil NOx and N2O used in atmospheric models. This dataset includes processed data collected from 4 dynamic flux chambers and 17 sensors. Data includes ambient gas measurements made 1 m from the surface and soil flux measurements of NO, NO2, N2O, ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Also included is a suite of meteorological (air temperature, humidity, pressure) and soil parameters (water filled pore space, soil temperature). Refer to the readme for more information about each of the data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phenomenological treatments of cross-sections for proton and hydrogen impact below 1 keV on molecular nitrogen

An analytic independent-particle model is used to construct static potentials to describe the interaction of hydrogen-like ions with atoms and molecules. Parameters of the ion-atom potential are determined from ab initio total energy minimization procedure. The elastic scattering of He(+) from Ne and Ar is investigated as a test case and comparison is made with experiment. The model is then used in conjunction with low energy H(+)-N2 experimental data to construct differential and total cross-sections for the scattering of protons and hydrogen in the energy range of 10 eV to 1 keV from molecular nitrogen. Analytic forms are used to parametrize these cross-sections to facilitate their use in the calculation of energy deposition by protons and hydrogen atoms in atmospheric gases.

Porter, H. S.↗

Contamination Measurements During Ius Thermal Vacuum Tests in A Large Space Chamber

The levels of contamination that originate from inside the IUS equipment support section (ESS) due to outgassing from electronics components and wiring operating at elevated temperatures (80-160 F) were investigated. Pressure was measured inside and outside the ESS. Mass deposition measurements were made with quartz crystal microbalances (QCM) facing into and away from ESS vents. The OCM's were operated at -50 C and -180 C using thermoelectrically and cryogenically cooled QCM's. Gaseous nitrogen flow inside the ESS was used to obtain the effective molecular flow vent area of the ESS, which was evaluated to be 359 sq cm (56 sq in) compared to the 978 sq cm (150 sq in) estimated by an earlier atmosphere pressure billowing test. The total outgassing rate of the ESS materials at a temperature of 60 C (140 F) decays with a time constant of 11.5 hours based on pressure measurements during the hot cycle. A time constant of 22 hours was estimated for the fraction of the outgassing which will condense on a -50 C surface. In contrast, the time constant is only 10.1 hours for the outgassing material which condenses on a surface at -180 C. A surface at -180 C collects approximately one half of the material vented from the ESS which impinges on it. Pressure measurements show very good correlation with the mass deposition measurements.

C R Mullen↗

Development of a mineralogy-based anthropogenic combustion-iron emission inventory

Atmospheric supply of iron can modulate ocean biogeochemistry, due to its key role in global nitrogen and carbon cycles. Using a detailed technology-based methodology we revise total and soluble anthropogenic iron emissions and resolve iron into its mineral components, which allows modeling mineral-specific atmospheric reactions. The inclusion of metal smelting as an iron source, increases fine iron aerosol emissions (smaller than 1 µm) compared with most previous inventories. Different assumptions about solubility lead to estimates of 40-450 Gg/year deposition of soluble anthropogenic iron. When combined with dust and wildfires, the global total anthropogenic soluble iron deposition is 1900-2300 Gg/yr, so assumptions in anthropogenic inventories can affect estimates of global soluble iron supply by about 30%. In regions where marine primary productivity is iron-limited, anthropogenic combustion-iron contributes up to half of the atmospheric soluble iron flux to North Pacific Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Jaegle, Lyatt↗

Mars atmospheric loss and isotopic fractionation by solar-wind-induced sputtering and photochemical escape

We examine the effects of the loss of Mars atmospheric constituents by solar-wind-induced sputtering and by photochemical escape during the past 3.8 billion years. Sputtering is capable of efficiently removing species from the upper atmosphere, including the light noble gases; nitrogen and oxygen are removed by photochemical processes as well. Due to diffusive separation (by mass) above the homopause, removal from the top of the atmosphere will fractionate the isotopes of each species, with the lighter mass being preferentially lost. For carbon and oxygen, this allows us to determine the size of nonatmospheric reservoirs which mix with the atmosphere; these reservoirs can be CO2 adsorbed in the regolith and H2O in the polar ice caps. We have constructed both simple analytical models and time-dependent models of the loss of volatiles from and supply to the martian atmosphere. Both argon and neon require continued replenishment from outgassing over geologic time. For argon, sputtering loss explains the fractionation of (Ar-36)/(Ar-38) without requiring a distinct epoch of hydrodynamic escape (although fractionation of Xe isotopes still requires very early hydrodynamic loss). For neon, the current (Ne-22)/(Ne-20) ratio represents a balance between loss to space and continued resupply from the interior; the similarity of the ratio to the terrestrial value is coincidental. For nitrogen, the loss by both sputtering and photochemical escape would produce a fractionation of (N-15)/(N-14) larger than observed; an early, thicker carbon dioxide atmosphere could mitigate the nitrogen loss and produce the observed fractionation, as could continued outgassing of juvenile nitorgen. Based on the isotopic constraints, the total amount of carbon dioxide lost over geologic time is probably on the order of tens of millibars rather than a substantial fraction of a bar. The total loss from solar-wind-induced sputtering and photochemical escape, therefore, does not seem able to explain the loss of a putative thick, early atmosphere withput requiring formation of extensive surface carbonate deposits or other nonatmospheric reservoirs for CO2.

Jakosky, Bruce M.↗

Characterization of Sequentially Extracted Soil Organic Matter by Electrospray Ionization and Atmospheric Pressure Photoionization Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry

Soil organic matter (SOM) is a complex mixture of small molecules and biopolymers that are active in various biogeochemical processes. However, the chemical diversity of biopolymer-derived SOM remains poorly explored. Identifying this diversity is important because global environmental changes may well alter SOM chemistry, as field experiments are beginning to show. Here, organic solvent-extractable (DcMe-SOM), base-hydrolyzable (KOH Hy -SOM), and CuO-oxidizable (CuO Ox -SOM) SOM fractions from a forest with a long-term nitrogen addition experiment were sequentially extracted and characterized by Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) coupled with negative-ion electrospray ionization (ESI) or atmospheric pressure photoionization (APPI). From DcMe-SOM to CuO Ox -SOM, the total number of assigned formulas, average O/C ratio, aromaticity, and unsaturation degree of SOM continuously increased, while the average m/z and H/C ratio decreased. Moreover, the dominant chemical category shifted from lipid-like components to phytochemical- and protein-like components. Complementary to ESI, APPI effectively facilitated detection of additional compounds with low polarity. With long-term nitrogen addition, the average m/z, unsaturation degree, aromaticity, and oxidation state of SOM increased, and more aromatic nitrogen-containing formulas were detected in CuOOx-SOM. Our study demonstrates that chronic nitrogen deposition in forests alters both the small molecules and biopolymers of SOM fundamentally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Thirty Years After: The Science of the Viking Program and the Discovery of a 'New Mars'

Viking discovered a Mars that was very different from the Mars found by Mariner 4, 6 and 7. The new, exciting, more Earth-like Mars was hinted at by the Mariner 9 orbiter and confirmed by Viking. Viking discovered some very fundamental things about Mars. Viking discovered the presence of nitrogen in the atmosphere. A key ingredient needed for life. Viking made the first measurements of the isotopic composition of carbon, oxygen, nitrogen and the noble gases in the atmosphere of Mars. The ratio of 15N to 14N suggested that Mars may have lost more than 99% of the total mass of its atmosphere. The denser atmosphere in the past may explain the presence of flowing water earlier in the history of Mars first discovered by Mariner 9 with additional and higher spatial resolution examples provided by the Viking Orbiters. Viking did not measure organics or life at the surface of Mars. But, Viking did discover a surface unlike any other on the Solar System--a surface exhibiting very high chemical reactivity, most probably formed by the deposition of chemically active atmospheric gases, like hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and ozone (O3), onto the surface of Mars.

Levine, Joel S.↗

Canopy Level Solar Induced Fluorescence for Vegetation in Controlled Experiments

Solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) was retrieved from high resolution reflectance spectra acquired one meter above saplings of three deciduous tree species during springtime (three weeks after leaf flush) and in late summer when foliage was mature. SIF was determined by application of the Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) Principal to above-canopy spectra acquired with an Analytical Spectral Devices (ASD) Fieldspec spectroradiometer (3.2 nm resolution with 1.2 nm sampling interval). SIF retrievals were made at the two atmospheric oxygen (O2) absorption features that occur in the chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) region (660 -780 nm). These telluric features are 02V, the broader and deeper feature centered at 760 nm, but located on the shoulder of the far-red ChlF peak at 740 nm; and 023, a narrow feature centered at 688 nm that is positioned near the red ChlF peak at 685 nm. Supporting, coincident leaf level fluorescence, reflectance, photochemical and other measurements were also made. At the leaf level, these measurements included in situ photosynthetic capacity (Pmax) and light adapted total chlorophyll fluorescence (Fs') collected at steady state under high light and controlled chamber conditions (e.g., temperature, PAR, humidity, and COz); optical properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance); chlorophyll and carotenoid content; specific leaf mass; carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content; fluorescence emission spectra at multiple excitation wavelengths; the ChlF contribution to red (R) and far-red (FR) reflectance; fluorescence imagery; and fluorescence excitation-emission matrices (EEMs). The tree species examined were tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraczflua L.), and each had been provided four levels of N augmentation (0, 19, 37, and 75 kg Nhectare seasonally) to simulate atmospheric deposition from air pollution. Whole-plant SIF measurements of these species were compared with SIF estimates derived using FluorMOD, a radiative transfer model that includes fluorescence properties of foliage, when provided with our supporting measurements. Simulated values for SIF were also compared with similar estimates made over three years for corn (Zea mays L) crops under N treatments (20, 50,70, and 140 kg Nhectare) and with corn and pepper (Capsicum annuum L.) plants provided dimethyl urea (DCMU, 0 and 5 x 10" M) which were grown in pots and grouped in artificial canopies for spectral measurements. For near-surface measurements of healthy and stressed vegetation, red SIF retrieved at 688 nm (023) varied between 2-7 mW/m(exp 2)/nm/sr while far-red SIF retrieved at 760 nm (O2A) varied between 0.5 and 4.0 mW/m(exp 2)/nm/sr. Typical values for the SIF red/far-red ratio ranged between 1.75 and 4.0. Relationships of SIF to spectral reflectance indices and foliar photochemical indices were examined, such as photosynthetic light use efficiency. Initial investigations of the variability in these measurements at the same leaf temperature for sunlit and shaded foliage showed us that shaded foliage produced higher ChlF and light use efficiency. Other factors that affect SIF determinations are discussed. These results will assist in determine the expected intensity of the SIF signal from vegetation near the surface, as well as to identify enhancements needed for FluorMOD (or other such models), and will assist in determining relationships of SIF to reflectance indices and carbon dynamics.

Middleton, E. M.↗

A Tale of Two Catchments: Causality Analysis and Isotope Systematics Reveal Mountainous Watershed Traits That Regulate the Retention and Release of Nitrogen

Abstract Mountainous watersheds are characterized by variability in functional traits, including vegetation, topography, geology, and geomorphology, which determine nitrogen (N) retention, and release. Coal Creek and East River are two contrasting catchments within the Upper Colorado River Basin that differ markedly in total nitrate (NO 3 − ) export. The East River has a diverse vegetation cover, and sinuous floodplains, and is underlain by N‐rich marine shale. At 0.21 ± 0.14 kg ha −1 yr −1 , the East River exports ∼3.5 times more NO 3 − relative to the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek (0.06 ± 0.02 kg ha −1 yr −1 ). While this can partly be explained by the larger size of the East River, the distinct watershed traits of these two catchments imply different mechanisms controlling the aggregate N‐export signal. A causality analysis shows physical and biogenic processes were critical in determining NO 3 − export from the East River catchment. Stable isotope ratios of NO 3 − (δ 15 N NO3 and δ 18 O NO3 ) show the East River catchment is a strong hotspot for biogeochemical processing of NO 3 − at the hillslope soil‐saprolite. By contrast, the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek retained nearly all atmospherically deposited NO 3 − , and its export was controlled by catchment hydrological traits (i.e., snowmelt periods and water table depth). The conservative N‐cycle within Coal Creek is likely due to the abundance of conifer trees, and smaller riparian regions, retaining more NO 3 − overall and reduced processing prior to export. This study highlights the value of integrating isotope systematics to link watershed functional traits to mechanisms of watershed element retention and release.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Mineralogy–Based Anthropogenic Combustion–Iron Emission Inventory

Atmospheric supply of iron can modulate ocean biogeochemistry, due to its key role in global nitrogen and carbon cycles. Current estimates predict up to 20% of global ocean net primary productivity depends on an atmospheric iron source. Using a technology–based methodology, we revise total and soluble anthropogenic iron emissions and resolve iron into its mineral components, which allows modeling mineral–specific atmospheric reactions. We compare different methodologies for representing anthropogenic iron solubility: measured in mild and strong leaches and estimated using a mineralogy basis and identify the emissions that are most affected by such assumptions. The inclusion of metal smelting as an iron source increases iron emissions by up to 10 times higher in the fine aerosol fraction (smaller than 1 μm) than most previous inventories. Different solubility assumptions alter anthropogenic soluble iron emissions and deposition by a factor of 20 and 10, respectively. Using solubilities measured in mild leaches and calculated by mineralogy give 20–30 Gg/yr anthropogenic emissions and 40–50 Gg/yr deposition, while those measured in strong leaches give 80–440 Gg/yr emissions and 200–450 Gg/yr deposition. Here, this range of anthropogenic soluble iron deposition leads to global soluble iron deposition of 1,900–2,300 Gg/yr when dust, wildfires, and atmospheric processing are included, indicating such assumptions can affect global soluble iron supply by about 30%. In regions where marine primary productivity is iron limited, anthropogenic combustion–iron contributes up to half of the atmospheric soluble iron flux to the North Pacific Ocean but supplies less than 5% to the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate and atmospheric deposition drive the inter-annual variability and long-term trend of dissolved organic carbon flux in the conterminous United States

The lateral flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to inland waters and ultimately to the ocean represents a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. To estimate the DOC flux, we developed an empirical terrestrial-aquatic DOC fluxes model (TAF-DOC). TAF-DOC incorporates various environmental factors (e.g., meteorology, sulfur, and nitrogen deposition) that to-date have not been comprehensively considered or well-represented in existing modeling frameworks. TAF-DOC was applied to estimate spatial-temporal patterns of DOC flux and potential fates across the conterminous United States during the 1985 to 2018 time period. Our results suggest that TAF-DOC successfully characterized spatial-temporal of DOC flux. As expected, the interannual pattern of DOC flux was strongly regulated by precipitation, but the long-term trend was significantly influenced by the rate of atmospheric wet sulfur deposition. From 1985 to 2018, TAF-DOC estimated DOC loading from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems in the conterminous United States to be 33.5 ± 2.2 TgC per year, which was roughly 0.39–0.49% of total soil organic carbon stock estimates. The dominant fate of terrestrially-derived DOC was delivery to the coastal ocean in riverine export (41%), with another 21% buried in sediment and the remaining 12.8 ± 0.4 TgC per year (38%) returned to the atmosphere through outgassing from inland waters. Finally, assuming the quantities of DOC sediment burial and export to the ocean as an annual sink of terrestrially-derived carbon, budget inventories and models that do not account for DOC flux in the conterminous United States will underestimate the net annual carbon sink by as much as 5.5–6.4%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Photochemistry of biogenic emissions over the Amazon forest

The boundary layer chemistry over the Amazon forest during the dry season is simulated with a photochemical model. Results are in good agreement with measurements of isoprene, NO, ozone, and organic acids. Photochemical reactions of biogenic isoprene and NOx can supply most of the ozone observed in the boundary layer. Production of ozone is very sensitive to the availability of NOx, but is insensitive to the isoprene source strength. High concentrations of total odd nitrogen (NOy) are predicted for the planetary boundary layer, about 1 ppb in the mixed layer and 0.75 ppb in the convective cloud layer. Most of the odd nitrogen is present as PAN-type species, which are removed by dry deposition to the forest. The observed daytime variations of isoprene are explained by a strong dependence of the isoprene emission flux on sun angle. Nighttime losses of isoprene exceed rates of reaction with NO3 and O3 and appear to reflect dry-deposition processes. The 24-hour averaged isoprene emission flux is calculated to be 38 mg/sq m per day. Photooxidation of isoprene could account for a large fraction of the CO enrichment observed in the boundary layer under unpolluted conditions and could constitute an important atmospheric source of formic acid, methacrylic acid, and pyruvic acid.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling geogenic and atmospheric nitrogen through the East River Watershed, Colorado Rocky Mountains

There is a growing understanding of the role that bedrock weathering can play as a source of nitrogen (N) to soils, groundwater and river systems. The significance is particularly apparent in mountainous environments where weathering fluxes can be large. However, our understanding of the relative contributions of rock-derived, or geogenic, N to the total N supply of mountainous watersheds remains poorly understood. In this study, we develop the High-Altitude Nitrogen Suite of Models (HAN-SoMo), a watershed-scale ensemble of process-based models to quantify the relative sources, transformations, and sinks of geogenic and atmospheric N through a mountain watershed. Our study is based in the East River Watershed (ERW) in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The East River is a near-pristine headwater watershed underlain primarily by an N-rich Mancos Shale bedrock, enabling the timing and magnitude of geogenic and atmospheric contributions to watershed scale dissolved N-exports to be quantified. Several calibration scenarios were developed to explore equifinality using >1600 N concentration measurements from streams, groundwater, and vadose zone samples collected over the course of four years across the watershed. When accounting for recycling of N through plant litter turnover, rock weathering accounts for approximately 12% of the annual dissolved N sources to the watershed in the most probable calibration scenario (0–31% in other scenarios), and 21% (0–44% in other scenarios) when considering only “new” N sources (i.e. geogenic and atmospheric). On an annual scale, instream dissolved N elimination, plant turnover (including cattle grazing) and atmospheric deposition are the most important controls on N cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗