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Results for “traffic forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1978

Inadequacies of conventional traffic forecasting in determining the demand for new aircraft

Decisions concerning the selection of new aircraft must take into account the expected volume and character of air traffic in particular future markets. An investigation is, therefore, conducted regarding the currently available approaches for obtaining estimates of air traffic growth. Essentially, air traffic forecasting consists in studying past air traffic growth patterns, attempting to determine what may cause them to change, relating them where possible to such determinants or to other series whose changes they follow in some predictable fashion. Attention is given to the short-shelf life of conventional air traffic forecasts, the observation that most forecasts reflect recent experience, factors which may partially offset the inadequacies of air traffic forecasting technology, the limitations of conventional forecasting, and research useful in identifying a range of future scenarios.

Gorham, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Air Traffic Forecasting at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

Procedures for conducting air traffic forecasts with specific application to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey are discussed. The procedure relates air travel growth to detailed socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population rather than to aggregate economic data such as Gross National Product, personal income, and industrial production. Charts are presented to show the relationship between various selected characteristics and the use of air transportation facilities.

Augustine, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1972

Techniques for Forecasting Air Passenger Traffic

The basic techniques of forecasting the air passenger traffic are outlined. These techniques can be broadly classified into four categories: judgmental, time-series analysis, market analysis and analytical. The differences between these methods exist, in part, due to the degree of formalization of the forecasting procedure. Emphasis is placed on describing the analytical method.

Taneja, N.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Information Requirements for Supervisory Air Traffic Controllers in Support of a Wake Vortex Departure System

Closely Space Parallel Runway (CSPR) configurations are capacity limited for departures due to the requirement to apply wake vortex separation standards from traffic departing on the adjacent parallel runway. To mitigate the effects of this constraint, a concept focusing on wind dependent departure operations has been developed, known as the Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD). This concept takes advantage of the fact that crosswinds of sufficient velocity blow wakes generated by aircraft departing from the downwind runway away from the upwind runway. Consequently, under certain conditions, wake separations on the upwind runway would not be required based on wakes generated by aircraft on the downwind runway, as is currently the case. It follows that information requirements, and sources for this information, would need to be determined for airport traffic control tower (ATCT) supervisory personnel who would be charged with decisions regarding use of the procedure. To determine the information requirements, data were collected from ATCT supervisors and controller-in-charge qualified individuals at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport (STL) and George Bush Houston Intercontinental Airport (IAH). STL and IAH were chosen as data collection sites based on the implementation of a WTMD prototype system, operating in shadow mode, at these locations. The 17 total subjects (STL: 5, IAH: 12) represented a broad-base of air traffic experience. Results indicated that the following information was required to support the conduct of WTMD operations: current and forecast weather information, current and forecast traffic demand and traffic flow restrictions, and WTMD System status information and alerting. Subjects further indicated that the requisite information is currently available in the tower cab with the exception of the WTMD status and alerting. Subjects were given a demonstration of a display supporting the prototype systems and unanimously stated that the WTMD status information they felt important was represented. Overwhelmingly, subjects felt that approving, monitoring and terminating the WTMD procedure could be integrated into their supervisory workload.

Lohr, Gary W.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Benefit Opportunities for Integrated Surface and Airspace Departure Scheduling: A Study of Operations at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport

NASA is collaborating with the FAA and aviation industry to develop and demonstrate new capabilities that integrate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations. The concept relies on trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations. The paper describes the concept and benefit mechanisms aimed at improving flight efficiency and predictability while maintaining or improving operational throughput. The potential impact of the technology is studied and discussed through a quantitative analysis of relevant shortfalls at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017: Charlotte-Douglas International Airport. Results from trajectory analysis indicate substantial opportunity to reduce taxi delays for both departures and arrivals by metering departures at the gate in a manner that maximizes throughput while adhering to takeoff restrictions due mostly to airspace constraints. Substantial taxi-out delay reduction is shown for flights subject to departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives. Opportunities to improve the predictability of taxi, takeoff, and climb operations are examined and their potential impact on airline scheduling decisions and air-traffic forecasting is discussed. In addition, the potential to improve throughput with departure scheduling that maximizes use of available runway and airspace capacity is analyzed.

air traffic management↗
NASA NTRS1974

Advanced subsonic long-haul transport terminal area compatibility study. Volume 1: Compatibility assessment

An analysis was made to identify airplane research and technology necessary to ensure advanced transport aircraft the capability of accommodating forecast traffic without adverse impact on airport communities. Projections were made of the delay, noise, and emissions impact of future aircraft fleets on typical large urban airport. Design requirements, based on these projections, were developed for an advanced technology, long-haul, subsonic transport. A baseline aircraft was modified to fulfill the design requirements for terminal area compatibility. Technical and economic comparisons were made between these and other aircraft configured to support the study.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

Telecommunication service markets through the year 2000 in relation to millimeter wave satellite systems

NASA is currently conducting a series of millimeter wave satellite system and market studies to develop 30/20 GHz satellite system concepts that have commercial potential for the period 1980-2000. The results of the market studies to-date focusing on the overall demand forecasts and distributions by geographic location, distance, and user category are discussed. Tables are presented indicating baseline market forecast voice and video services, data service category, impacted baseline forecast, and traffic/distance distribution voice services. It is concluded that the total market and system activity will be influential in determining the potential role of millimeter wave systems in the overall transmission needs of the nation, and the amount of the total forecasted traffic suitable for millimeter wave systems.

Stevenson, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

A methodology for long range prediction of air transportation

The paper describes the methodology for long-time projection of aircraft fuel requirements. A new concept of social and economic factors for future aviation industry which provides an estimate of predicted fuel usage is presented; it includes air traffic forecasts and lead times for producing new engines and aircraft types. An air transportation model is then developed in terms of an abstracted set of variables which represent the entire aircraft industry on a macroscale. This model was evaluated by testing the required output variables from a model based on historical data over the past decades.

Ayati, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Space Shuttle capabilities, constraints, and cost

The capabilities, constraints, and costs of the Space Transportation System (STS), which combines reusable and expendable components, are reviewed, and an overview of the current planning activities for operating the STS in an efficient and cost-effective manner is presented. Traffic forecasts, performance constraints and enhancements, and potential new applications are discussed. Attention is given to operating costs, pricing policies, and the steps involved in 'getting on board', which includes all the interfaces between NASA and the users necessary to come to launch service agreements.

Lee, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Communications payload concepts for geostationary facilities

Summarized and compared are the major results of two NASA sponsored studies that defined potential communication payload concepts to meet the satellite traffic forecast for the turn of the century for the continental US and Region 2 of the International Telecommunications Union. The studies were performed by the Ford Aerospace and Communications Corporation and RCA Astro-Electronics (now GE-RCA Astro-Space Division). Future scenarios of aggregations of communications services are presented. Payload concepts are developed and defined in detail for nine of the scenarios. Payload costs and critical technologies per payload are also presented. Finally the payload concepts are compared and the findings of the reports are discussed.

Poley, William A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Cost-effective intersatellite link applications to the fixed satellite services

Potential cost-effective applications of intersatellite links (ISLs) to domestic, regional, and global fixed satellite services are presented, addressing traffic forecast and service demands for the year 2001. To determine the cost advantages and other systems benefits of ISLs, selected satellite network architectures were derived for ISL and corresponding non-ISL systems. The cost analysis was performed using payload sizing based on state-of-the-art ISL technology, both optical and microwave.

Lee, Y. S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Manual control aspects of Space Station docking maneuvers

Due to an increase in spacecraft traffic forecasted for the Space Station era, researchers are investigating manual control and other aspects of docking operations with hopes of increasing safety, productivity, and likelihood of success while decreasing cost. Experiments have been performed which revealed the effect of approach velocity, in-flight anomalies, and control mode. Displays have been designed to enable flight planners to more easily overcome the difficulties presented by orbital mechanics. Improved understanding of human factors in the docking mission and other orbital maneuvers will play a significant role in design tradeoffs concerning thruster size, docking fixture style and mass, and on-board trajectory planning displays. Incorporating both empirical and analytic results into current and future planning of missions occurring not only in earth orbit, but also for missions in lunar and Mars orbit, will expand the performance envelopes of the astronauts who participate in these missions.

Brody, Adam R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Battery cars on superconducting magnetically levitated carriers: One commuting solution

Commuting to work in an urban-suburban metropolitan environment is becoming an unpleasant time-wasting process. We applied the technology of communication management to this commuting problem. Communication management is a system-engineering tool that produced today's efficient telephone network. The resulting best commuting option is magnetically levitated carriers of two-passenger, battery-powered, personally-owned local-travel cars. A commuter drives a car to a nearby station, selects a destination, drives on a waiting carrier, and enters an accelerating ramp. A central computer selects an optimum 100 miles-per-hour trunk route, considering existing and forecast traffic; assigns the commuter a travel slot, and subsequently orders switching-station actions. The commuter uses the expensive facilities for only a few minutes during each trip. The cost of travel could be less than 6 cents per mile.

Briggs, B. Mike↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Conference Proceedings of the 2001 Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) of the WCTR Society

The ATRS held its 5th Annual conference at the City University of Hong Kong Campus in July 2001. The conference was a success with nearly 140 participants including 70 presenters. Titles that comprise Volume 2 include: Intelligent Airport Gate Assignment System; A Study on the Effects of the Personality Compatibility to the Job Performance; ITS/CVO Application for Air cargo Transportation in Korea; An Airport as a Logistics and Economic Hub: The Case of Incheon International Airport; The Impact Of Aviation Safety over the Consumer's Behavior; The Integration of China and Taiwan Air Networks for Direct Air Cargo Services; Quality perception and carrier choice in Civil Aviation; Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making; Cooperation Among German Airports in Europe; Inbound and Outbound Air Passenger Traffic Forecasting between the United States and Selected Asian countries; An Evaluation of Alternative Facilities for Airport Redevelopment using Fuzzy Linguistic Approach; Economic Analysis of Airline Alliances; The Aviation Cooperation between the two Koreas Preparing for the Reunification of the Peninsula; and A Study on the Air Transport Cooperation in Northeast Asia between China, Japan and Korea.

Lee, Yeong-Heok↗