Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “traffic prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Deploying a Model Predictive Traffic Signal Control Algorithm - A Field Deployment Experiment Case Study

This paper presents a field deployment experiment of a real-time traffic signal control algorithm. We implemented the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm based on the virtual phase-link (VPL) model. We selected the deployment locations and times based on an energy saving potential concept. We developed a set of experiment systems, which included sensing, processing, and actuating components, to enable field deployment. We tested the systems rigorously before the experiment days. We reported the key procedures on the experiment days, including the steps taken, the real-time control procedure, and the monitoring of the experiment. We evaluated the impact of the deployment by looking at the changes in delay and energy consumption.

deployment↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ising-Traffic: Using Ising Machine Learning to Predict Traffic Congestion under Uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges in accurate and realtime traffic congestion prediction with uncertainty by proposing Ising-Traffic, a novel quantum-inspired dual-model Ising based traffic prediction framework which delivers higher accuracy and lower latency than SOTA solutions. While traditional and deep learning methods face the trade-off between algorithm complexity and computational efficiency, our Ising-based method leverages Ising’s inherent and unique capability of finding the state of a system with the lowest energy and applying it to traffic prediction. In this work, traffic prediction under uncertainty is formulated into two separate Ising models: Reconstruct-Ising and Predict-Ising. Reconstruct-Ising is mapped onto modern Ising machine and handles uncertainty in traffic accurately with negligible latency and energy consumption, while Predict-Ising is mapped onto traditional processors and predicts future congestion precisely with only at most 1.8% computational demands of existing solutions. Our evaluation shows Ising-Traffic delivers on average 98× speedups and 5% accuracy improvement over SOTA.

traffic flow control, Ising↗
DOE OSTI2020

Traffic Prediction for Merging Coordination Control in Mixed Traffic Scenarios

Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) have the potential to bring in safety, mobility, and energy benefits to transportation. The control decisions of CAVs are usually determined for a look-ahead horizon based on previewed traffic information. This requires an effective prediction of future traffic conditions and its integration with the CAV control framework. However, the short-term traffic prediction using information from connectivity is a challenging research topic, especially for mixed traffic scenarios. This work focuses on the development of a traffic prediction framework for a merging coordination controller. The previously developed merging controller coordinates the merging sequence and travel speed of CAVs to maximize the energy efficiency and overall mobility. In mixed traffic scenarios, the controller receives information regarding the position of all the vehicles traveling inside a control zone and controls the desired speed of all CAVs. The controller has no control on the human-driven vehicles. The merging controller does not have direct information or an explicit prediction on the behaviors of human-driven vehicles. Aiming to improve the performance of the merging controller in various mixed traffic conditions, a traffic prediction algorithm is developed and evaluated in this work. The performance of this traffic prediction algorithm is investigated for various penetration rates of connectivity for a single-lane secondary road merging to a single-lane primary road. The results show that compared to a constant speed assumption of human-driven vehicles, the proposed traffic prediction algorithm is able to reduce the prediction error of the arrival time of human-driven vehicles at the merging zone by more than 50%.

Shao, Yunli↗
DOE OSTI2022

Device Classification for Industrial Control Systems Using Predicted Traffic Features

To achieve a secure interconnected Industrial Control System (ICS) architecture, security practitioners depend on accurate identification of network host behavior. However, accurate machine learning based host identification methods depends on the availability of significant quantities of network traffic data, which can be difficult to obtain due to system constraints such as network security, data confidentiality, and physical location. In this work, we propose a network traffic feature prediction method based on a generative model, which achieves high host identification accuracy. Furthermore, we develop a joint training algorithm to improve host identification performance compared to separate training of the generative model and the classifier responsible for host identification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-Stream Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network for Multi-Lane Traffic Speed Prediction Considering Traffic Volume Impact

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems. Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed that achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, the authors propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, the authors first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial–temporal multi-channel matrices. Then the authors carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial–temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using 1-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites

Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

O'Hare Airport roadway traffic prediction via data fusion and Gaussian process regression

This study proposes an approach of leveraging information gathered from multiple traffic data sources at different resolutions to obtain approximate inference on the traffic distribution of Chicago's O'Hare Airport area. Specifically, it proposes the ingestion of traffic datasets at different resolutions to build spatiotemporal models for predicting the distribution of traffic volume on the road network. Due to its good adaptability and flexibility for spatiotemporal data, the Gaussian process (GP) regression was employed to provide short-term forecasts using data collected by loop detectors (sensors) and supplemented by telematics data. The GP regression is used to make predictions of the distribution of the proportion of sensor data traffic volume represented by the telematics data for each location of the sensors. Consequently, the fitted GP model can be used to determine the approximate traffic distribution for a testing location outside of the training points. Policymakers in the transportation sector can find the results of this work helpful for making informed decisions relating to current and future transportation conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deploying a Model Predictive Traffic Signal Control Algorithm - A Field Deployment Experiment Case Study: Preprint

This paper presents a field deployment experiment of a real-time traffic signal control algorithm. We implemented the Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm based on Virtual Phase-Link (VPL) model. We selected the deployment locations and times based on an energy saving potential concept. We developed a set of experiment systems to enable the deployment including sensing, processing, and actuating components. We tested the systems rigorously before the experiment days. We reported the key procedures on the experiment days including the steps took, real-time control procedure, and the monitoring of the experiment. We evaluated the impact of the deployment with the changes in delay and energy consumption.

deployment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid Recurrent Neural Network Modeling for Traffic Delay Prediction at Signalized Intersections Along an Urban Arterial

This paper studies the traffic delay prediction modeling for multiple signalized intersections along the Ala Moana Boulevard and Nimitz Highway in Hawaii. Several machine learning (ML) based approaches have been studied in the literature, and most of them focused on prediction accuracy rather than the end use of real-time control and implementation. These ML models tend to be very complex and non-linear in nature, making it challenging to achieve fast inferences and are computationally heavy for real-time signal control implementation. As such, in this paper, a simple yet accurate hybrid modeling method is proposed to predict traffic delay one-step ahead with the model made suitable for real-time implementation to control traffic flow. Since real-time road-side measurements are recorded in unstructured form, the paper also discusses other issues related to data extraction and the pre-processing process. Finally, a simple signal control loop is developed to demonstrate the proposed modeling approach, which has shown advantages in model accuracy and computation efficiency compared against several existing modeling methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Movement-Based Traffic Volume Prediction at Signalized Intersections

The traffic volume of each movement at signalized intersections can provide valuable information on real-time traffic conditions that enable traffic control systems to dynamically respond to the fluctuated traffic demands. Real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction is challenging due to various nonlinear spatial relationships at different locations/approaches and the complicated underlying temporal dependencies. In this study, a novel deep intersection spatial-temporal network (DISTN) is developed for real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections, which considers both spatial and temporal features by the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively. In addition, the within-day, daily, and weekly periodic trends of traffic volume are also considered in the proposed model. This is the first time that a deep-learning method has been applied for movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections. In the numerical experiment, the proposed model is evaluated using real-world data and simulation data to demonstrate its effectiveness. The impacts of various structures of traffic networks on the proposed model are also discussed. Results show that the proposed model outperforms some of the state-of-the-art volume prediction methods currently in the literature.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control for Urban Traffic Signals with Stability Guarantees

Traditional traffic signal control focuses more on the optimization aspects whereas the stability and robustness of the closed-loop system are less studied. This paper aims to establish the stability properties of traffic signal control systems through the analysis of a practical model predictive control (MPC) scheme, which models the traffic network with the conservation of vehicles based on a store-and forward model and attempts to balance the traffic densities. More precisely, this scheme guarantees the exponential stability of the closed-loop system under state and input constraints when the inflow is feasible and traffic demand can be fully accessed. Practical exponential stability is achieved in case of small uncertain traffic demand by a modification of the previous scheme. Simulation results of a small-scale traffic network validate the theoretical analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and prediction of intersection traffic violations using automated enforcement system data

We report that the automated enforcement system (AES) is an effective way of supplementing traditional traffic enforcement, and the traffic violation data from AES can also be effectively used for safety research. In this study, traffic violation data were used to analyze the influencing factors associated with traffic violations and to predict the probability of violations at intersections. The potential factors influencing violations include 24 independent factors related to time, space, traffic and weather. Results from a logistic model showed that the midday period, weekends, residential districts, collector roads, congested traffic conditions, high traffic flow, lower wind speed and low temperature would increase the probability of traffic violations. The probability of violations was predicted by the random forest algorithm, which was proven to be the best traffic violation prediction model among logistic regression, Gaussian naive Bayes, and support vector machine. Moreover, the proximity weighted synthetic oversampling technique (ProWSyn) method was applied to reduce the impact of the imbalance ratio (IR) and improve the model’s prediction performance. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and Precision-Recall (PR) curves illustrated that the random forest algorithm using oversampling data had the best classifier prediction performance than undersampling data. The area under curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) error with IR = 1 reached 0.914 and 0.0787, which showed the better performance of the random forest algorithm using ProWSyn in dealing with imbalanced traffic violation data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement. Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Multi-Source Data for Bi-Level Traffic Simulator Calibration: A Literature Review and Highway Case Study

Traffic simulation serves as a powerful tool for pre-evaluating policies and technologies. In this context, simulation-based Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models are capable of capturing traffic dynamics. They are well-known as critical tools in controlling and predicting traffic situations. The reliability of simulation results heavily depends on the calibration process. Most studies in the literature formulate and calibrate simulators based on a single source of collected data or multiple data sets with the same spatiotemporal characteristics. However, in practice, traffic data is collected by various tools with usually different spatial and temporal resolutions. This study introduces a novel approach to taking into account diverse input data from a variety of sources. An iterative bi-level solution is proposed. to equally treat traffic flow and speed data. The upper level solves flow calibration with the exact solution method, and the lower level calibrates the speed with the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the proposed model is investigated using data from a six-mile section of Nashville's I-24 highway in Tennessee. The results demonstrate that our proposed model creates an effective feedback loop between the optimizer and the simulator for calibrating flow and speed to reduce the error between simulated and real data.

42 ENGINEERING↗