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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of transportation network companies on urban congestion: Evidence from large-scale trajectory data

We collect vehicle trajectory data from major transportation network companies (TNCs) in New York City (NYC) in 2017 and 2019, and we use the trajectory data to understand how the growth of TNCs has impacted traffic congestion and emission in urban areas. By mining the large-scale trajectory data and conduct the case study in NYC, we confirm that the rise of TNC is the major contributing factor that makes urban traffic congestion worse. From 2017 to 2019, the number of for-hire vehicles (FHV) has increased by over 48% and served 90% more daily trips. These resulted in an average citywide speed reduction of 22.5% on weekdays, and the average speed in Manhattan decreased from 11.76 km/h in April 2017 to 9.56 km/h in March 2019. The heavier traffic congestion may have led to 136% more NOx, 152% more CO and 157% more HC emission per kilometer traveled by the FHV sector. Our results show that the traffic condition is consistently worse across different times of the day and at different locations in NYC. And we build the connection between the number of available FHVs and the reduction in travel speed between the two years of data and explain how the rise of TNC may impact traffic congestion in terms of moving speed and congestion time. Our findings provide valuable insights for different stakeholders and decision-makers in framing regulation and operation policies towards more effective and sustainable urban mobility.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ARM Trajectories Data Set Value-Added Product Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s ARM Trajectories Data Set (ARMTRAJ) Value-Added Product (VAP) provides trajectory data sets initialized at ARM deployment coordinates and configured using ARM data sets. The four trajectory data sets support aerosol, cloud, and planetary boundary-layer research. Trajectory calculations use the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model informed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data set at its highest spatial resolution (~31 km). HYSPLIT also runs at multiple initial starting locations surrounding ARM deployments (in latitude/longitude and/or vertical coordinates), facilitating an ensemble for each sample in the data sets. The ensemble mean and variability reported in ARMTRAJ improve the fidelity and provide uncertainty estimates of trajectory coordinates, thermodynamic properties, and other output fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARM Trajectories Data Set Value-Added Product Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s ARM Trajectories Data Set (ARMTRAJ) Value-Added Product (VAP) provides trajectory data sets initialized at ARM deployment coordinates and configured using ARM data sets. The six trajectory data sets support aerosol, cloud, planetary boundary layer, and related research (aerosol-cloud interactions, etc.), as well as studies using ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) and tethered balloon system (TBS) measurements. Trajectory calculations use the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model informed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data set at its highest spatial resolution (~31 km). HYSPLIT also runs at multiple initial starting locations surrounding ARM deployments (in latitude/longitude and/or vertical coordinates), facilitating an ensemble for each sample in the data sets. The ensemble mean and variability reported in ARMTRAJ improve the fidelity and provide uncertainty estimates of trajectory coordinates, thermodynamic properties, and other output fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scalable and Actionable Performance Measures for Traffic Signal Systems using Probe Vehicle Trajectory Data

Scalable and actionable performance measures for traffic signal systems provide opportunities for practitioners to measure and improve the transportation network. Historically, traffic signal improvements have relied on scheduled signal retiming based on limited data collection, or on the public to call and alert engineers of an issue. This inefficient method of improving signal timing led to the creation of automated traffic signal performance measures (ATSPMs). These metrics rely on expensive infrastructure, including detection and communications, which has produced barriers for numerous agencies to fully adopt. Recently, third-party data providers have begun to release vehicle trajectory data, which allows for enhanced signal metrics with no investment in physical equipment. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the use of these data and summarize the scalability of the created metrics. This work builds on previous efforts to quantify signal performance on nine intersections in Michigan, U.S. Ten signalized corridors in Columbus, Ohio, were chosen to scale a performance assessment using crowdsourced trajectory data. A total of 136 intersections were assessed in 2-h intervals using data from all weekdays in 2017. High-level corridor summary metrics including average percent of vehicles stopping (18%–32%), average delay (9.4–20.5 s), and level of travel time reliability (1.23–2.73) were calculated for each corridor direction. Intersection-level metrics were also introduced, which can be used by practitioners to identify problems, improve signal timings, and prioritize future infrastructure investments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deploying Traffic Smoothing Cruise Controllers Learned from Trajectory Data

Autonomous vehicle-based traffic smoothing con- trollers are often not transferred to real-world use due to challenges in calibrating many-agent traffic simulators. We show a pipeline to sidestep such calibration issues by collecting trajectory data and learning controllers directly from trajectory data that are then deployed zero-shot onto the highway. We construct a dataset of 772.3 kilometers of recorded drives on the I-24. We then construct a simple simulator using the recorded drives as the lead vehicle in front of a simulated platoon consisting of one autonomous vehicle and five human followers. Using policy-gradient methods with an asymmetric critic to learn the controller, we show that we are able to improve average MPG by 11% in simulation on congested trajectories. We deploy this controller to a mixed platoon of 4 autonomous Toyota RAV-4’s and 7 human drivers in a validation experiment and demonstrate that the expected time-gap of the controller is maintained in the real world test. Finally, we release the driving dataset [1], the simulator, and the trained controller at https://github.com/nathanlct/trajectory-training-icra.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hazard-Based Model of Activity Generation Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Travel behavior modeling suffers from lack of longitudinal data due to the high cost of procurement and difficulty with ensuring data quality. In the recent years ubiquitous data intercepted from social media, cell detail record, GPS traces are increasingly being explored to analyze human mobility. However, these data lack key demographic information which limits their use for developing causal models of traveler behavior. The primary contribution of the paper lies in using vehicle trajectory data from Ann Arbor along with multiple other data sources for developing a hazard-based activity generation model. The different category of data used in the analysis include (i) vehicle trajectory data (VTD), (ii) American Census Survey (ACS), (iii) land use data, (iv) household travel survey (HTS) data, and (v) smart location data from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Home and work are identified as the two most frequently visited locations from the VTD and validated against land use categories of the region. Next a random utility-based model is developed using HTS data to identify other activity purposes as a function of the polynomials of distance from home, activity duration and departure time. The developed model is then applied to identify the non-home activity purposes in the VTD. Demographic and accessibility information are appended to the VTD from ACS and smart location databases respectively. The fmal database is then used to develop a hazard-based activity generation model. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

activity generation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. Additionally, we illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Massive Trajectory Data Based on Patterns of Life

Individual human location trajectory and check-in data have been the driving force for human mobility research in recent years. However, existing human mobility datasets are very limited in size and representativeness. For example, one of the largest and most commonly used datasets of individual human location trajectories, GeoLife, captures fewer than two hundred individuals. To help fill this gap, this Data and Resources paper leverages an existing data generator based on fine-grained simulation of individual human patterns of life to produce large-scale trajectory, check-in, and social network data. In this simulation, individual human agents commute between their home and work locations, visit restaurants to eat, and visit recreational sites to meet friends. We provide large datasets of months of simulated trajectories for two example regions in the United States: San Francisco and New Orleans. In addition to making the datasets available, we also provide instructions on how the simulation can be used to re-generate data, thus allowing researchers to generate the data locally without downloading prohibitively large files.

Amiri, Hossein↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2020

Trajectory prediction via a feature vector approach

Described herein are various technologies pertaining to extracting one or more features from trajectory data recorded during motion of a body, and further, generating a n-dimensional feature vector based upon the one or more extracted features. The n-dimensional feature vector enables expedited analysis of the trajectory data from which the feature vector was generated. For example, rather than having to analyze a trajectory curve comprising a large number of time-position data points, the n-dimensional feature vector can be compared with one or more search parameters to facilitate clustering of the trajectory data associated with the n-dimensional feature vector with other trajectory data which also satisfies the search request. The trajectory data can be plotted on a screen in combination with the n-dimensional feature vector, and other pertinent information. The trajectory data, etc., can be displayed using heat maps or other graphical representation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Dynamic Digital Twin for Test Scenario Generation

Vehicle testing has been an important part in the development of both highly automated vehicles (HAV) and advanced driving assistant systems (ADAS). Obtaining a good representation of the Vehicle Under Test (VUT) is crucial for test scenario library generation (TSLG). Current vehicle testing methods often involve calibrating car-following models using vehicle trajectory data to create static representations that cannot be dynamically updated. For instance, when multiple vehicle trajectories are collected, it is difficult to automatically determine whether a new trajectory improves the model's representativeness or degrades its accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a dynamically updated digital twin modeling framework featuring an adaptive mechanism that evaluates new trajectory data. This mechanism can decide whether to incorporate newly collected data into the current model or create a separate digital twin model when the trajectory significantly differs from prior data. Vehicle location, speed, and acceleration extracted from the newly collected trajectory data are used to support the dynamic update decision. By integrating this digital twin model into the test library generation process, we demonstrate its ability to assist in generating test libraries while effectively handling newly collected data.

Chen, Hanlin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165087715)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automated Classification of Vehicle Movements at Signalized Intersections Using Vehicle Trajectories

Accurate vehicle movement classification through signalized intersections is of paramount importance to the analysis of intersection performance and the optimization of traffic control strategies. Conventional techniques for tracking vehicle turning movements depend on infrastructure-based strategies like human counts, loop detectors, and video analytics, all of which are costly, prone to errors, and spatially constrained. High-frequency trajectory data can be utilized to determine vehicle movement patterns in a scalable and infrastructure-independent method due to the adoption of connected vehicles (CVs). In recent years, several studies have utilized connected vehicle data to generate performance measures. Most of the trajectory-based performance measures approaches, however, require map matching-i.e., extracting geospatial references from maps to identify the movements that individual vehicles make at a signalized intersection. These approaches are often time-consuming and hinder scalability since geographic features need to be provided for an analysis to be conducted. Map matching methods are prone to errors as different map versions change these geographic features. This research presents a novel automatic classification pipeline that uses CV trajectory data to classify vehicle movements at signalized crossings, specifically pass-through left-turn and right-turn maneuvers. The process starts by filtering trips that cross a spatial bounding box that has been defined at the target intersection. Approach and departure headings for each trajectory crossing the boundary are computed and are clustered together to identify dominant movements. The proposed algorithm is used to classify the movement of vehicles at 10 intersections in the state of California, and the results indicate that the algorithm can classify movements at these intersections with varying traffic volumes and road network configurations, all in a map-less framework with no need for conflation of vehicle trajectories to a digital base map.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed Data-Driven Power Iteration for Strongly Connected Networks

Here, this paper presents data-driven power iteration to distributively estimate the dominant eigenvalues of an unknown linear time-invariant system. The proposed strategy only requires a single trajectory data or measurements. Furthermore, in order to perform the distributed estimation, the communication network topology can be chosen to be any strongly connected directed graphs. The proposed data-driven power iteration is demonstrated using several numerical examples and is then applied to estimate the generalized algebraic connectivity of cooperative systems and to control the epidemic spreading.

Gusrialdi, Azwirman↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Temporal Information from Human Mobility Data to Detect Anchor Points

Spatiotemporal mobility data are available in massive quantities, but large quantities of data typically include fewer variables or data fields. Often, the only available fields are User ID, Longitude, Latitude, Timestamp (ULLT). This raises an important question: how much can we infer about human mobility patterns using only these four fields? With ULLT data, we do not know individuals' socioeconomic status information or when they are visiting their anchor points (AP) or locations (such as homes, places of employment, or schools), and it is a modern challenge to use this data to infer these characteristics. When detecting anchor locations with limited input information, verification and validation (VV) are significant challenges. This paper addresses the problem of identifying individuals' anchor locations using only temporal information from spatiotemporal datasets with limited attributes. Our approach does not explicitly use latitude and longitude during analysis. Locationbased information is only employed in the preprocessing stage to identify periods of movement (trips) and stops (dwelling). Beyond this step, all analysis is based on temporal patterns. In theory, if stops and dwell times could be detected through alternative means, our method could function entirely without location-based input. We demonstrate this methodology on the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data, because it includes a carefully designed and collected time use survey with representative sampling and labeled ground truth. The high-quality survey data allows us to test the accuracy of our methods because NHTS contains intended place labels and agent/user characteristics. We have also applied our validated AP identification algorithm on very large-scale GPS based trajectory data for Patterns-of-Life (PoL) assessment and other applications, but due to space limit that could not be presented here.

McBride, Liz [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286925869)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vehicle Powertrain Simulation Accuracy for Various Drive Cycle Frequencies and Upsampling Techniques

As connected and automated vehicle technologies emerge and proliferate, lower frequency vehicle trajectory data is becoming more widely available. In some cases, entire fleets are streaming position, speed, and telemetry at sample rates of less than 10 seconds. This presents opportunities to apply powertrain simulators such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator to model how advanced powertrain technologies would perform in the real world. However, connected vehicle data tends to be available at lower temporal frequencies than the 1-10 Hz trajectories that have typically been used for powertrain simulation. Higher frequency data, typically used for simulation, is costly to collect and store and therefore is often limited in density and geography. This paper explores the suitability of lower frequency, high availability, connected vehicle data for detailed powertrain simulation. A large data set of 1 Hz trajectories is used to quantify the accuracy loss when simulating energy consumption for conventional, hybrid, and battery electric powertrains using less than 1 Hz data. Techniques to upsample lower frequency drive cycle data in order to increase accuracy are also explored. Median energy consumption errors when simulating energy consumption for a 1/10 Hz trajectory are found to be 3-6% when compared to 1 Hz trajectories. Applying upsampling and interpolation techniques are shown to reduce the simulation errors by roughly 50%. The findings in this work can guide connected vehicle data collection specifications and processing techniques applied when using collected data for powertrain simulation.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding collective human movement dynamics during large-scale events using big geosocial data analytics

Conventional approaches for modeling human mobility pattern often focus on human activity and movement dynamics in their regular daily lives and cannot capture changes in human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events. With the rapid advancement of information and communication technologies, many researchers have adopted alternative data sources (e.g., cell phone records, GPS trajectory data) from private data vendors to study human movement dynamics in response to large-scale natural or societal events. Big geosocial data such as georeferenced tweets are publicly available and dynamically evolving as real-world events are happening, making it more likely to capture the real-time sentiments and responses of populations. However, precisely-geolocated geosocial data is scarce and biased toward urban population centers. In this research, we developed a big geosocial data analytical framework for extracting human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events from publicly available georeferenced tweets. The framework includes a two-stage data collection module that collects data in a more targeted fashion in order to mitigate the data scarcity issue of georeferenced tweets; in addition, a variable bandwidth kernel density estimation(VB-KDE) approach was adopted to fuse georeference information at different spatial scales, further augmenting the signals of human movement dynamics contained in georeferenced tweets. To correct for the sampling bias of georeferenced tweets, we adjusted the number of tweets for different spatial units (e.g., county, state) by population. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed analytic framework, we chose an astronomical event that occurred nationwide across the United States, i.e., the 2017 Great American Eclipse, as an example event and studied the human movement dynamics in response to this event. Finally, this analytic framework can easily be applied to other types of large-scale events such as hurricanes or earthquakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Divide and conquer: Learning chaotic dynamical systems with multistep penalty neural ordinary differential equations

Forecasting high-dimensional dynamical systems is a fundamental challenge in various fields, such as geosciences and engineering. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs), which combine the power of neural networks and numerical solvers, have emerged as a promising algorithm for forecasting complex nonlinear dynamical systems. However, classical techniques used for NODE training are ineffective for learning chaotic dynamical systems. In this work, we propose a novel NODE-training approach that allows for robust learning of chaotic dynamical systems. Here, our method addresses the challenges of non-convexity and exploding gradients associated with underlying chaotic dynamics. Training data trajectories from such systems are split into multiple, non-overlapping time windows. In addition to the deviation from the training data, the optimization loss term further penalizes the discontinuities of the predicted trajectory between the time windows. The window size is selected based on the fastest Lyapunov time scale of the system. Multi-step penalty(MP) method is first demonstrated on Lorenz equation, to illustrate how it improves the loss landscape and thereby accelerates the optimization convergence. MP method can optimize chaotic systems in a manner similar to least-squares shadowing with significantly lower computational costs. Our proposed algorithm, denoted the Multistep Penalty NODE, is applied to chaotic systems such as the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, the two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow, and ERA5 reanalysis data for the atmosphere. It is observed that MP-NODE provide viable performance for such chaotic systems, not only for short-term trajectory predictions but also for invariant statistics that are hallmarks of the chaotic nature of these dynamics.

Chaotic dynamical systems↗