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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Active Learning Surrogates for Integrating Electron Microscopy and Computational Insights from Simulations in Autonomous Experiments

Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with simulations and experiments has great potential to accelerate scientific discovery across technology and pharmaceuticals. However, the gap between simulations and experiments is challenging due to disparities in time and scale, making it difficult to estimate properties like energy and electronic states from experiments, and to provide feedback based on theoretical insights.Our research addresses the challenge by developing unique deep kernel based surrogate models that learns from microscopic images, mapping structural features to energy differences from defect formation. We start with full-training using simulated images to determine optimal settings, establishing a baseline for active learning. Using these settings from the baseline, active learning is trained, and predicts structures along simulation trajectories based on uncertainty and energetic stability, thus reducing data requirements, simulation time and computational costs. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a low average error margin of approximately 0.03 meV, indicating good performance. To enhance feature extraction and reconstruction capabilities, we developed an autoencoder-decoder as additional surrogate to create latent space to capture essential features, enabling precise comparisons between simulations and experiments. The results from this model achieved a reconstruction loss of around 0.2 and accurately reconstructed molecular structures.Overall, this work advances the steering of experiments through computational simulations by employing a surrogate models that actively predicts the trajectories of structural evolution, achieving time-to-solution comparable to experimental measurements.

Saranathan, Gayathri [Hewlett-Packard]↗

DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Learning plasma dynamics and robust rampdown trajectories with predict-first experiments at TCV

The rampdown phase of a tokamak pulse is difficult to simulate and often exacerbates multiple plasma instabilities. To reduce the risk of disrupting operations, we leverage advances in Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) to combine physics with data-driven models, developing a neural state-space model (NSSM) that predicts plasma dynamics during Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV) rampdowns. The NSSM efficiently learns dynamics from a modest dataset of 311 pulses with only five pulses in a reactor-relevant high-performance regime. The NSSM is parallelized across uncertainties, and reinforcement learning (RL) is applied to design trajectories that avoid instability limits. High-performance experiments at TCV show statistically significant improvements in relevant metrics. A predict-first experiment, increasing plasma current by 20% from baseline, demonstrates the NSSM’s ability to make small extrapolations. The developed approach paves the way for designing tokamak controls with robustness to considerable uncertainty and demonstrates the relevance of SciML for fusion experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Uncertainties Associated with the Nucleosynthesis in Ejecta of a Black Hole Accretion Disk

Abstract The simulation of heavy element nucleosynthesis requires input from yet-to-be-measured nuclear properties. The uncertainty in the values of these off-stability nuclear properties propagates to uncertainties in the predictions of elemental and isotopic abundances. However, for any given astrophysical explosion, there are many different trajectories, i.e., temperature and density histories, experienced by outflowing material, and thus different nuclear properties can come into play. We consider combined nucleosynthesis results from 460,000 trajectories from a black hole accretion disk and find the spread in elemental predictions due solely to unknown nuclear properties to be a factor of a few. We analyze this relative spread in model predictions due to nuclear variations and conclude that the uncertainties can be attributed to a combination of properties in a given region of the abundance pattern. We calculate a cross-correlation between mass changes and abundance changes to show how variations among the properties of participating nuclei may be explored. Our results provide further impetus for measurements of multiple quantities on individual short-lived neutron-rich isotopes at modern experimental facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire soil respiration in late growing season (2023 and 2024), Kougarok Fire Complex, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Field soil respiration data collected in 2023 and 2024 from burned and unburned tussock tundra sites in the Kougarok Fire Complex, near Nome, on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Specifically, we measured soil properties and late-growing season CO2 fluxes in patches of unique plant functional types (forbs, shrubs, and graminoids) across two years in tundra recovering from repeated wildfires over the decade. The goal was to identify the main drivers of soil respiration in Arctic tundra underlain by discontinuous permafrost that is recovering from two recent, repeated wildfires that differed in fire age and number of times burned, thereby resulting in different levels of vegetation and subsurface property changes (i.e., successional trajectories). There are five files in *.csv format with one data file and four data description files including data, dictionary, methods, terminology, and file-level metadata. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic Phase 3 project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Santos, Fernanda [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191555623)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Absolute Hugoniot measurements in low-density plastic foams on the NIKE shock compression platform

The propagation of Mbar-range shock waves in low-density foam materials is of interest to target design in all approaches to inertial confinement fusion, high energy density physics, and laboratory astrophysics. We report absolute Hugoniot measurements for CH 1.72 N 0.086 O 0.37 plastic foams with 73 and 94 mg/cm 3 densities in the 32–107 km/s shock velocity range. The experiments were performed on the shock compression platform developed on the NIKE KrF laser facility at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. NIKE's 4 or 8-ns long flat-top laser pulses drive steady shock waves into foam targets at the ablative pressures of 1–7 Mbar. The propagation of the ablation and shock fronts is tracked continuously in time using streaked side-on monochromatic x-ray imaging radiography. The straight x−t trajectories of the shock and ablation fronts in the recorded streak images confirmed their steadiness. The SESAME tabulated equation of state predictions generally agrees with our Hugoniot data within a 95% confidence band. The experimental uncertainty of the evaluated shock density compression ratios remains large, indicating the need for more experiments and improved theoretical understanding of the strong shock propagation mechanisms in dry foams.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors

Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions between climate warming and fire: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. More information in the related references. The dataset is a model (ecosys) output used in a study that examined the potential future shifts in high-latitude vegetation types (PFTs) driven by changes in 21st century climate and fire. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing differences in plant functional traits on current and possible 21st century trajectories of Alaskan PFTs. This dataset package includes 13 files in pdf, csv, and nc formats.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Modeling Archive

The dataset is a model output used in a study that examined the role topography plays in determining shrub expansion by applying a coupled transect version of a mechanistic ecosystem model (ecosys) in a tundra hillslope site in the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing hillslope-scale coupled surface and sub-surface hydrology to accurately predict current plant distributions and future trajectories in Arctic ecosystems. The dataset contain ecosys model outputs used in a study: Article Title - Topographical Controls on Hillslope-Scale Hydrology Drive Shrub Distributions on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. It includes the data files (ten *.csv files) used in creating figures in the publication and three *.pdf files (user guide and two Supplementary Information documents).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking Cylindrical Blast Wave Theory Against the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius (${R}_{0}$ ) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients ( C ) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate C is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to C at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates ${R}_{0}$ by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. Finally, these results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to effectively non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining ${R}_{0}$.

atmospheric entry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Accounting for linkages between wildfire-driven shifts in plant-microbial interactions and soil carbon dynamics in Arctic tundra

Increasing wildfire regimes in the rapidly changing Arctic tundra are altering the soil carbon budget through increased permafrost degradation, shrubs expansion, and shifts in microbial activities. Whether future arctic wildfires will result in net C losses or gains in the future will depend on complex biotic and abiotic interactions that regulate belowground C biogeochemical processes, including linkages among biotic communities. One important linkage is plant-microbe interactions. While these interactions are likely shaped or altered by wildfires, they remain little explored in the context of successional trajectories. Yet, incorporating plant-microbe interactions in frameworks for defining and understanding post-fire soil C trajectories is critical to predict belowground C responses to future tundra wildfires. Here, we provide examples of and discuss how fire-mediated changes in plant-soil-microbe (PSM) interactions can impact soil C dynamics in the Arctic tundra. We consider different impacts of wildfires on PSM interactions and their implications to soil C dynamics, as well as the nuances associated with particular wildfire regimes (severity and intensity) and successional timescales. We suggest that accounting for plant-microbial linkages in future wildfire-succession interactions frameworks can inform future experimental designs and reduce uncertainties in our ability to predict the net effect of Arctic wildfires on ecosystem C.

fungi, bacteria↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trajectory Shaper: A Solution for Disrupted Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control

Cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) can effectively reduce energy consumption, alleviate traffic congestion, and enhance safety. However, communication-related constraints and uncooperative vehicle users can disrupt CACC during real-world operations, significantly undermining the putative benefits of CACC. To alleviate the negative impacts of disrupted CACC, this study develops the trajectory shaper (TS) methods as backup solutions for two scenarios: (i) communication between vehicles is infeasible, and vehicles execute adaptive cruise control (ACC) using local sensor measurements; (ii) follower vehicles reject forming a cooperative platoon and execute their local distributed controllers using the information attained via communication. When communication is infeasible, a distributed TS is devised on each vehicle to modify the sensor measurements, enabling safe and efficient ACC operations. When communication is available but uncooperative agents are involved, the lead vehicle of the platoon executes a centralized TS to modify the information shared with uncooperative agents, achieving optimal platoon-level performance. The centralized and distributed TSs are implemented based on the model predictive control algorithms to yield optimal modifications on input information. Robustness is also factored to tackle model uncertainties during TS operations to ensure safety and efficiency. Numerical experiments validate the control performance of the proposed TSs.

Zhou, Anye [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301455579)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from plant carbonyl sulfide uptake

Terrestrial photosynthesis, or gross primary production (GPP), is the largest carbon flux in the biosphere, but its global magnitude and spatiotemporal dynamics remain uncertain. The global annual mean GPP is historically thought to be around 120 PgC yr −1 , which is about 30–50 PgC yr −1 lower than GPP inferred from the oxygen-18 ( 18 O) isotope and soil respiration. This disparity is a source of uncertainty in predicting climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, in this study, we infer GPP from carbonyl sulfide, an innovative tracer for CO 2 diffusion from ambient air to leaf chloroplasts through stomata and mesophyll layers. We demonstrate that explicitly representing mesophyll diffusion is important for accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants. From the estimate of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants, we infer a global contemporary GPP of 157 (±8.5) PgC yr −1 , which is consistent with estimates from 18 O (150–175 PgC yr −1 ) and soil respiration ($149^{+29}_{-23}$) PgC yr −1 ), but with an improved confidence level. Our global GPP is higher than satellite optical observation-driven estimates (120–140 PgC yr –1 ) that are used for Earth system model benchmarking. This difference predominantly occurs in the pan-tropical rainforests and is corroborated by ground measurements, suggesting a more productive tropics than satellite-based GPP products indicated. As GPP is a primary determinant of terrestrial carbon sinks and may shape climate trajectories, our findings lay a physiological foundation on which the understanding and prediction of carbon–climate feedbacks can be advanced.

Lai, Jiameng↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Charging Rendezvous and Motion Planning for a Multi-AGV Team Including a Mobile Charging Host

Teams of automated battery-powered electric vehicles have the potential to execute complex mission tasks in off-road environments for agriculture, military, and other applications. Limited onboard energy reserves hinder their adoption in large-scale resource-constrained environments, where recharging is a necessity. It may be infeasible to install a network of static charging stations in off-road environments. For this reason, dedicated mobile host vehicles with charging capabilities are proposed as a means to increase range and capabilities of the multivehicle team. Here, in this study, we consider an ad hoc planning framework, where results from a high-confidence trajectory planner are leveraged to plan charging rendezvous between a host and other worker vehicles in a receding horizon fashion to provide high confidence that energy reserves will not be prematurely exhausted. The core problem is posed so as to minimize the impact of recharging on the mission in terms of task delays, overall energy utilization, and costs of fast charging. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations of an off-road mission, we show a decrease in task delays without substantial increases in energy needs by updating the charging rendezvous plan during the mission. However, if updates are made too often, model mismatch may cause unnecessary cycling and mission failure.

Energy constraints↗