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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Neighborhood sociome factors and pediatric asthma exacerbations: Protective role of tree crown density and importance of pharmacy access in Chicago's south side

Abstract Background Pediatric asthma exacerbations remain a critical public health concern, particularly in historically underserved urban settings. Objective This study investigates sociome factors—the social context of disease—associated with asthma exacerbations among children living in Chicago's South Side, leveraging clinical and publicly available generalizable census tract‐level datasets from agencies including ChiVes, the City of Chicago Data Portal, EPA, Census Bureau, HUD, NOAA, and more. The aim is to uncover novel hypotheses for potential new interventions. Methods A generalized linear model assessed associations with the outcome of asthma exacerbations while accounting for clustering at the patient level. Predictors included all variables from the Sociome Data Commons, including social, environmental, behavioral, economic, housing, and school variables. Results Predictors of decreased risk included patient age (+4.8 years, −22%), tree crown density (+6% coverage, −17%), parks per acre (+0.41, −8%), and labor market engagement (+0.8 points, −9%). Conversely, predictors of increased risk included increased distance to the nearest pharmacy (+0.28 miles, +12%), limited English skills (+2.3%, +10%), higher inequality (+0.08 points, +8%), and visits in the Spring (+11%) and Fall (+20%). Conclusion The results suggest that tree crown density, a novel finding in the context of asthma exacerbations, may play a protective role. Limited access to health care facilities such as pharmacies continues to complicate care. Clinical Implications These findings provide hypotheses for future interventions for long‐standing asthma disparities.

Allergy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Differences in urban plant community compositions across an urban-rural gradient in Knoxville, TN

Urban forests, or vegetation in areas under heavy human influence, provide many ecosystem services to urban residents such as localized cooling via evapotranspiration, shade, filtering of air pollution, and the associated health benefits of natural spaces. In order to quantify the magnitude of localized cooling by trees growing in varying levels of urbanization (based on % impervious surfaces, e.g., buildings, pavement), urban forest species composition, tree size, and tree density must be characterized. As a part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) urban forest temperature study, we conducted tree censuses in five Knoxville city parks where ORNL meteorological stations are deployed. Moreover, we measured every woody plant ≥ 5 cm diameter at breast height (DBH) within a 50 m radius of each site’s meteorological station for its DBH and species identification. When possible, individuals were identified down to species. Certain genera (Quercus spp., Carya spp., Pinus spp.) were identified down to genera in interest of time. Individual and total site basal area were calculated from measured DBH data. Results show notable differences in urban plant community compositions and total woody plant basal area across sites, with more urban sites closer to downtown (West View and SEEED) having lower tree basal area than the more suburban sites (West Hills, Cumberland Estates, and Victor Ashe). We identified 54 species across all sites, with West Hills and Victor Ashe having the highest species diversity. Our results show differences in forest compositions and sizes across Knoxville, which are currently informing ORNL’s evapotranspiration estimates for each site. Data Summary: Census data for West Hills (WH), Cumberland Estates (CE), Victor Ashe (VA), West View (WV), and Socially Equal Energy Efficient Development or SEEED (SD) urban forests in Knoxville, TN, USA, including tree size based on diameter at breast height (DBH; 1.3 m), species identification (Latin and common names), and basal area per stem (BA=π×[.5*DBH]^2). Field data are summarized in this file: “Community_Composition_Data.CSV”. Site-specific data detailing each site’s coordinates, number of stems measured at DBH, average tree DBH, α-diversity (number of species present), and total site basal area (sum of individual basal areas per site) are in this file: “Site_Comparisons.CSV”.

Warren, Jeffrey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000206804697)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Response of soil nutrient pools and microbiomes to recurrent wildfire disturbance and varying burn severities in a mixed conifer forest

Wildfire is a pervasive disturbance in mixed-conifer forests, yet the relative influence of fire recurrence versus burn severity on soil biogeochemistry and microbial communities remains poorly quantified. We examined a natural gradient of fire history (0–3 prior fires) and burn severity (low–high) spanning 50 yr in a mixed-conifer ecosystem to assess how repeated fire shapes soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools, their isotopic signatures, mineral and particulate fractions, microbial community composition, carbon-use, CO₂ fluxes, and vegetation cover. Successive fires produced progressively higher bare-ground percentages and lower tree cover, which were tightly linked to declines in microbial diversity and reductions bulk %C, and %N. δ 13 C increased with fire frequency, indicating preferential loss of labile C through combustion or enhanced microbial oxidation, thereby explaining the observed net soil-C decline. Conversely, δ 15 N decreased and pH increased as tree density declined, reflecting altered N cycling and reduced acidification in post-fire soils. Fire recurrence, more than severity, corresponded with a marked shift in the bacterial community: for example, Xanthobacteraceae—key N-fixers and C-cyclers—diminished, while N-fixing Bacillaceae increased, underscoring the tightly coupled nature of soil nutrient dynamics and microbiome composition after repeated burns. Our results demonstrate that fire recurrence appears to be a stronger driver of post-fire soil ecosystem responses in this mixed-conifer forest, influencing both abiotic nutrient pools and the functional potential of the soil microbiome. These findings provide a more enhanced assessment and understanding to date of the biogeochemical consequences of repeated wildfire disturbance that can be used to inform management strategies aimed at preserving soil health in fire-prone landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-SCC Scotty Creek Landscape

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-SCC Scotty Creek Landscape. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-SCC Scotty Creek Landscape produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Scotty Creek flux tower is located in an organic-rich boreal forest-wetland landscape about 50 km south of Fort Simpson in the Taiga Plains of the Mackenzie watershed. The tower was installed in 2013 and operates an open-path EC system year-round running on solar power only. Flux footprints contain about 50 % forested peat plateaus and 50 % wetlands (i.e., collapse-scar bogs). The forests are underlain by permafrost, while the treeless wetlands are permafrost-free. The tower itself is located on a forested peat plateau. Black spruce tree density on plateaus is sparse and the mean canopy height is ca. 5 m.

Sonnentag, Oliver↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mortality correlates with tree functional traits across a wood density gradient in the Central Amazon

Introduction: Understanding the mechanisms of tree mortality in tropical ecosystems remains challenging, in part due to the high diversity of tree species and the inherently stochastic nature of mortality. Plant functional traits offer a mechanistic link between plant physiology and performance, yet their ability to predict growth and mortality remains poorly understood. Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Methods: Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Traits of the individual trees were related to stand-level growth and mortality rates collected periodically over 30 years from nearby permanent inventory plots. Results: Higher wood density was associated with smaller leaf size, lower foliar base cations, lower stem water content and sapwood fraction, in agreement with the fast-slow plant economics spectrum. Lower wood density was associated with more acquisitive characteristics with greater hydraulic capacity and foliar nutrient concentrations, correlating with greater growth and mortality rates. Discussion: Our results show that lower wood density is part of a coordinated suite of traits linked to high resource acquisition, fast growth, and increased mortality risk, providing a functional framework for predicting species performance and forest vulnerability under future climate stress.

demographics↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE Root Tip and Ectomycorrhizal Fungi Colonization Measurements from Ingrowth Cores, 2017

This data set contains root tip and ectomycorrhizal fungi colonization measurements taken from ingrowth cores from the SPRUCE experiment (Hanson et al. 2017) that were deployed during the 2017 growing season (2017-06 to 2017-10-01). This study explored the relationship between warming treatments and fine-root growth. Increased fine-root growth may increase root exudates and accelerate turnover, representing an underlying mechanism for peat decomposition through priming, as exudates provide a labile carbon source to the microbial community. Roots of two tree species were studied: an evergreen conifer Picea mariana (black spruce) and a deciduous conifer Larix laricina (tamarack). Measurements include root tips counts and densities by tree species and the abundance of ectomycorrhizal colonization on root tips. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

black spruce [Picea mariana]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seeing the forest for all the trees: Mycorrhizal‐associated nutrient economies are modulated by stem density and the synchrony between overstorey and understorey communities

1. Identifying relationships between plant communities and soil characteristics is a critical step in understanding the consequences of species gains and losses in ecosystems. The mycorrhizal associated nutrient economy (MANE) hypothesis predicts that the degree to which tree species and their mycorrhizal associates affect soil properties is driven by the relative dominance of different mycorrhizal types (often measured by relative basal area). While this approach emphasizes the importance of canopy trees, it does not account for how other factors (e.g. the density and composition of understorey trees) may alter tree–soil relationships. 2. We analysed tree–soil data from an eastern deciduous forest in southern Indiana, USA that contains >29,000 georeferenced stems, including 21 species that associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and 14 that associate with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi. We sampled soils (upper 5 cm) from across the plot and modelled soil characteristics to tree communities. Given differences in soil characteristics among AM-dominated and ECM-dominated neighbourhoods, we hypothesized that relationships between tree-mycorrhizal dominance and soils would be affected by both the density of stems in the plot (owing to ‘Zinke’ individual plant effects) and composition of the understorey trees (owing to ‘trait divergence effects’) 3. In support of our Zinke hypothesis, we found that the relationships between tree-mycorrhizal dominance and soil variables (soil pH, nitrification rates and carbon to nitrogen ratio) were strengthened as stand density increased. In support of the trait divergence hypothesis, we found that as the mismatch between overstorey and understorey composition increased (e.g. AM-dominated understories beneath ECM-dominated overstories and vice versa), the relationship between tree dominance and soil variables weakened. We were able to use these insights to create mycorrhizal metrics to predict soil variables that were sensitive to the structural composition of neighbourhoods. 4. Synthesis. Our results indicate that relationships between plants and soils in forests are not only shaped by dominant overstorey trees but also the density and composition of understorey trees. Thus, efforts to predict the ecosystem consequences of species gains and losses may benefit from considering these elements of forest structure and not only the basal area of the dominant trees.

MANE framework↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weak bosons as partons below 10 TeV partonic center-of-momentum

We investigate the modeling of weak boson number densities for leptons and hadrons in practical calculations in the Standard Model. Working in the framework of the Effective $W$ Approximation (EWA) and in $R_\xi$ and axial gauges, we derive the unrenormalized, tree-level parton number density functions for weak bosons from massless leptons at next-to-leading power in the collinear expansion. Corrections exhibit a number of properties, including those conjectured but never universally derived. Parallels with heavy quark factorization are also found. We avoid pathologies through a novel set of kinematical consistency conditions. When satisfied, good agreement between the full and approximated matrix elements is achieved. Findings suggest that the EWA may be testable at the Large Hadron Collider with $450$ fb$^{-1}$ luminosity of same-sign $WW$ scattering data at $\sqrt{s}=13.6$ TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Canopy structure modulates the sensitivity of subalpine forest stands to interannual snowpack and precipitation variability

A declining spring snowpack is expected to have widespread effects on montane and subalpine forests in western North America and across the globe. The way that tree water demands respond to this change will have important impacts on forest health and downstream water subsidies. Here, we present data from a network of sap velocity sensors and xylem water isotope measurements from three common tree species (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa and Populus tremuloides) across a hillslope transect in a subalpine watershed in the Upper Colorado River basin. We use these data to compare tree- and stand-level responses to the historically high spring snowpack but low summer rainfall of 2019 against the low spring snowpack but high summer rainfall amounts of 2021 and 2022. From the sap velocity data, we found that only 40 % of the trees showed an increase in cumulative transpiration in response to the large snowpack year (2019), illustrating the absence of a common response to interannual spring snowpack variability. The trees that increased water use during the year with the large spring snowpack were all found in dense canopy stands – irrespective of species – while trees in open-canopy stands were more reliant on summer rains and, thus, more active during the years with modest snow and higher summer rain amounts. Using the sap velocity data along with supporting measurements of soil moisture and snow depth, we propose three mechanisms that lead to stand density modulating the tree-level response to changing seasonality of precipitation: Topographically mediated convergence zones have consistent access to recharge from snowmelt which supports denser stands with high water demands that are more reliant and sensitive to changing snow. Interception of summer rain in dense stands reduces the throughfall of summer rain to surface soils, limiting the sensitivity of the dense stands to changes in summer rain. Shading in dense stands allows the snowpack to persist deeper into the growing season, providing high local reliance on snow during the fore-summer (early-summer) drought period. Combining data generated from natural gradients in stand density, like this experiment, with results from controlled forest-thinning experiments can be used to develop a better understanding of the responses of forested ecosystems to futures with reduced spring snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mineral-Associated Organic Matter Concentration Beneath Northern Temperate Trees Varies by Mycorrhizal Type and Leaf Habit

Mycorrhizal fungi are important drivers of soil organic matter dynamics, but it can be difficult to isolate the effects of the fungi themselves from covarying traits of their host trees. For example, many trees with an evergreen leaf habit associate with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi, while many deciduous tree species associate with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. Because leaf habit influences the quantity and quality of organic matter inputs to soil, it is often an important factor in soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and thus can mask the effects of mycorrhizal fungi on soil organic matter processes. We evaluated how tree mycorrhizal associations and leaf habit separately influence the amount and composition of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) in forest soils in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. We measured carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and C/N ratios of three soil density fractions beneath six tree species that vary in mycorrhizal association and leaf habit. We found lower concentrations of MAOM C and N beneath evergreen vs. deciduous trees, but only for tree species associating with AM fungi. Further, MAOM C/N was higher beneath evergreen trees and beneath trees with ECM fungi rather than AM fungi. Furthermore, these results add to the growing body of support for mycorrhizal fungi as mediators of soil organic matter dynamics, suggesting that the MAOM fraction is more sensitive to leaf habit beneath AM-associated versus ECM-associated trees. Because MAOM decomposition is thought to be less responsive than POM decomposition to changes in soil temperature and moisture, differences in the tendency of AM- and ECM-dominated forests to support MAOM formation and persistence may lead to systematic differences in the response of these forest types to ongoing climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher Wood Density Lowers Feedstock Cost and Has Minimal Impact on Biomass Conversion to Biofuels

Poplar and other woody feedstocks have the potential to provide up to 200 million tons of biomass per year that can be converted to liquid fuels. Most forestry strategies that aim to increase biomass productivity per hectare rely on short rotation plantations of fast-growing varieties. The improvement of the wood density as a key trait itself has largely been overlooked. We evaluated natural variation in wood density across a population of genetically diverse Populus trichocarpa trees grown in a common garden. Wood density varies greatly within this population but is heritable; higher wood density was not systematically associated with reduced growth, challenging assumptions of a trade-off between wood density and biomass accumulation. Furthermore, denser wood led to significant improvements throughout the supply chain including lowering biomass production and transportation costs. Higher density did not correlate with changes in biomass composition. Density did not impact bioconversion in the two feedstock-to-fuel pipelines tested (pretreatment by ionic liquids and fermentation to bisabolene or soaking in aqueous ammonia and fermentation to ethanol) on a representative subset of poplars. These findings highlight wood density as a promising breeding target for accelerating the development of high-yielding, conversion-efficient bioenergy crops and as an avenue for increasing landuse efficiency and reducing biomass transportation cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil biogeochemical properties and metrics of tree-mycorrhizal dominance for a 25-Ha forest in South Central Indiana, USA.

This data package contains a dataset used in the papers “Seeing the forest for all the trees: Mycorrhizal-associated nutrient economies are modulated by stem density and the synchrony between overstory and understory communities” and “Mycorrhizal associations of tree species influence soil nitrogen dynamics via effects on soil acid–base chemistry”. Four csv files are included along with a dataset. The dataset features chemical soil properties for a single sampling campaign within the 25 Ha Lilly-Dickey Woods Smithsonian Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO) plot in South Central Indiana, USA (ldw_dat_raw.csv). Also included are separate files focused on pH (pH_data.csv), carbon and nitrogen (CN_data.csv), and nitrification rates (Nitrification_data.csv). These variables are commonly associated with the tree-mycorrhizal dominance of forest stands. In these data subsets, each soil variable was matched to a 10 meter radius neighborhood wherein metrics of tree-mycorrhizal dominance (basal area, stem count, importance value, etc.) were calculated. Models between these soil variables and dominance metrics were used to investigate how different assessments of mycorrhizal associated nutrient economies (MANE) capture these relationships. This research was performed as a part of the Smithsonian ForestGEO project. This data package can be used to explore spatial variability in soil chemistry within a mature hardwood forest, or it can be combined with the included tree data, other fine-scale spatial information, or other tree inventory data for the site to evaluate how soil chemistry varies with tree community composition or edaphic or topographic properties.

Craig, Matthew [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000288907920)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tree architectural characteristics and stem and leaf functional traits for 17 individuals in the Central Amazon

Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Research was conducted at the ZF2 Research Station located north or Manaus, Brazil, managed by the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA). Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Wood logs were collected at DBH, 50% stem length and at 100% stem length (at the base of the canopy). For wood anatomy samples, n=3-6 subsamples from each height. For leaf samples, 30 leaves were collected from the upper sunlit canopy. The methodology is detailed in the accompanying manuscript. The trait data are summarized in this file: "Trait_Summary.CSV". Summary Trait code abbreviations and units are described in this file: "Sample_Info_Traits_Summary.CSV". Stem traits measured along the bole from the base of the tree (DBH, diameter breast height), mid-stem, and base of the canopy are described in these files: "Sapwood_Area_height.CSV"; "Species_Info_height.CSV"; "Sample_Info_height.CSV"

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison between explicit and implicit discretization strategies for a dissipative thermal environment

We investigate strategies for simulating open quantum systems coupled to dissipative baths by comparing explicit wave function-based discretization [via multi-layer multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree (ML-MCTDH)] and the implicit density matrix-based master equation method [via tree tensor network hierarchical equations of motion (TTN-HEOM)]. For dissipative baths characterized by exponentially decaying bath correlation functions, the implicit discretization approach of HEOM—rooted in bath correlation function decompositions—proves significantly more efficient than explicit discretization of the bath into discrete harmonic modes. Explicit methods, like ML-MCTDH, require extensive mode discretization to approximate continuum baths, leading to computational bottlenecks. Case studies for two-level systems and a Fenna–Matthews–Olson complex model highlight TTN-HEOM’s superiority in capturing dissipative dynamics with relaxations with a minimal number of auxiliary modes, while the explicit methods are as exact as the HEOM in pure dephasing regimes. This comparison is enabled by the TENSO package, which has both ML-MCTDH and TTN-HEOM implemented using the same computational structure and propagation strategy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peatland Plant Community Changes in Annual Production and Composition Through 8 Years of Warming Manipulations Under Ambient and Elevated CO 2 Atmospheres

The Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment has operated five whole-ecosystem warming manipulations (+0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9°C) with paired ambient and elevated CO 2 atmospheres (eCO 2 , +500 ppm) for 8 full calendar years (since August 2015). We tracked shrub-layer vegetation responses to the treatments using annual destructive plot sampling. Tree (Picea and Larix) responses were assessed annually using nondestructive dimensional analyses and allometric conversions. Shrub community changes were assessed for key ericaceous shrubs (Rhododendron, Chamaedaphne, and Kalmia), two Vaccinium species (V. angustifolium, V. oxycoccos), graminoid species (mostly Eriophorum), and one common forb (Maianthemum trifolium), plus minor understory species. We tracked annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) for vascular plant species in gC m -2 y -1 and overall stand contribution in dry mass. We observed a linear increase in shrub-layer aboveground biomass accumulation with warming over time due primarily to an increase in ericaceous shrub abundance. Cumulative biomass increases across the shrub community showed overall positive responses to eCO 2 after 8 years. Community composition also changed with warming, with increases in woody shrub density, and the reduction or loss of forbs. The tree community showed minimal initial responses to warming early in the treatments, but since 2020, has shown significant increases in ANPP and individual tree growth with warming. The main driver of change in the vascular plant community was temperature, with less pronounced effects of eCO 2 evident. These results indicate an overall increase in ANPP with warming from both the tree and shrub layers of peatland vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures. Here, in this study, we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coastal groundwater salinization impairs tree carbon–water balance

How coastal forest productivity varies with local nutrient availability and water supply remains a knowledge gap under climate change. In a two-decade field experiment manipulating fertilization and density in coastal pine forests, we show that a decade of growth enhancement by simulated sedimentary nutrient inputs has resulted in a striking reversal in growth and increased mortality risk as drought and sea level rise progressed. Recent groundwater salinization has further triggered a shift from nutrient to water limitation, causing severe stomatal closure and decoupling of tree carbon–water balance, which induces a negative intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE)–growth relationship. Higher tree iWUE predicted sharper tree growth declines, and both nutrient enrichment and high stand density amplified this feedback, increasing the risk of hydraulic failure and mortality. These results suggest that a transient nutrient-stimulatory effect could drive further coastal forest degradation due to heightened belowground saltwater stress under sea-level rise.

Climate-change ecology↗