Estimating trends and the current climate mean in a changing climate
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Scherrer, Simon C.↗
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Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections
The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.
30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models
Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O 2 ). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O 2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O 2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O 2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, -0.37 ± 0.15×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and -1.06 ± 0.68×10 14 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is -0.98×10 14 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O 2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O 2 . Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O 2 changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Comment on “Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States”
Abstract Changes in precipitation patterns with climate change could have important impacts on human and natural systems. Zhang et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl092293 ) report trends in daily precipitation patterns over the last five decades in the western United States, focusing on meteorological drought. They report that dry intervals (calculated at the annual or seasonal level) have increased across much of the southwestern U.S., with statistical assessment suggesting the results are statistically robust. However, Zhang et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl092293 ) preprocess their annual (or seasonal) averages to compute 5‐year moving window averages before using established statistical techniques for trend analysis that assume independence about some fixed trend. Here we show that the moving window preprocessing violates that independence assumption and inflates the statistical significance of their trend estimates. This raises questions about the robustness of their results. We conclude by discussing the difficulty of adjusting for spatial structure when assessing time trends in a regional context.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Dynamics of virtual water networks: Role of national socio-economic indicators across the world
Intensified water usage due to rapid industrialization is often dictated by economic policies based on monetary growth rather than sustainable use of environmental resources. In addition, interdependence within economic sectors further interweaves water usage through product transactions, which further makes it difficult to quantify the dynamics of hydro-economic systems at regional, national and global scale. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of domestic virtual water networks (VWN) of 189 countries based on concept of information theory by quantifying network metrics that describes VWN flow capacity, robustness, efficiency and flexibility. These networks represent virtual water interconnected through economic sectors within a specified country built based on environmentally extended multi region input output (EE-MRIO) approach. We further estimated trends associated with network metrics, as well as coupling intensity between metrics with respect to socio-economic indicators, such as, population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI). It was observed that capacity and flexibility of VWNs are strongly and positively correlated indicating that a high capacity VWN can be more flexible. Our results also indicate that, in general a higher percentage of developing countries (i.e. both least developing and developing nations) have exhibited increasing trends in capacity, robustness, efficiency and flexibility of VWN compared to developed nations. It was revealed that the dynamics of VWNs are positively coupled with socio-economic growth for few countries, which indicates the sustainable behavior of VWN with socio-economic growth. Our results argue that the information theory-based metrics by embedding water footprints can holistically capture sustainability aspect of the VWN dynamics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Analyzing Wildland Fire Smoke Emissions Data Using Compositional Data Techniques
By conservation of mass, the mass of wildland fuel that is pyrolyzed and combusted must equal the mass of smoke emissions, residual char and ash. For a given set of conditions, these amounts are fixed. This places a constraint on smoke emissions data which violates statistical assumptions for many of the methods currently used to analyze these data such as linear regression, analysis of variance, and t-tests. These data are inherently multivariate and non-negative parts of a whole. This paper introduces the field of compositional data analysis to the emissions community and provides examples of appropriate statistical treatment of emissions data. It is shown that modified combustion efficiency should not be used as a predictor variable for other smoke emissions because it is not an independent variable. An alternative method based on compositional linear trends to estimate trace gas composition using CO and CO2 is presented. The data used in this paper resulted from projects the DOD/DOE/EPA Strategic 586 Environmental Research and Development Program projects RC-1648 and 1649. The senior 587 author appreciates the guidance and R scripts provided by Prof. Girty at San Diego State 588 University to estimate linear trends by perturbation. J. P.-A. was supported by the Spanish 589 Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities under the project CODAMET (RTI2018-590 095518-B-C21, 2019-2021). The data used in this study have been previously published and are 591 available in the original publications. DRW conceived the initial manuscript (70 percent) and 592 performed the bulk of the data analysis. JPA provided statistical guidance and compositional data 593 expertise and contributed 20 percent of the manuscript. TJJ and HJ were extensively involved in 594 the study that provided the data. TJJ provide smoke emissions expertise and HJ provided 595 combustion expertise. The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. The use of trade 596 or firm names in this publication is for reader information and does not imply endorsement by 597 the U.S. Department of Agriculture of any product or service.
simplex, compositional data analysis, balance, log↗
Vulnerability of Wetlands Due to Projected Sea-Level Rise in the Coastal Plains of the South and Southeast United States
Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, yet knowledge about their extent and distribution is often limited. We developed a land cover classification of wetlands in the coastal plains of the southern United States along the Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) using 6161 very-high (2 m per pixel) resolution WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images from 2012 to 2015. Area extent estimations were obtained for the following vegetated classes: marsh, scrub, grass, forested upland, and forested wetland, located in elevation brackets between 0 and 10 m above sea level at 0.1 m intervals. Sea-level trends were estimated for each coastal state using tide gauge data collected over the period 1983–2021 and projected for 2100 using the trend estimated over that period. These trends were considered conservative, as sea level rise in the region accelerated between 2010 and 2021. Estimated losses in vegetation area due to sea level rise by 2100 are projected to be at least 12,587 km 2 , of which 3224 km 2 would be coastal wetlands. Louisiana is expected to suffer the largest losses in vegetation (80%) and coastal wetlands (75%) by 2100. Such high-resolution coastal mapping products help to guide adaptation plans in the region, including planning for wetland conservation and coastal development.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Detection of local-scale changes in greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments using micrometeorological methods and comparison to a high-resolution inventory
We used the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) flux-variance relationship to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from high-precision mole fraction measurements at 3 instrumented urban communication towers over several years, demonstrating the ability of this method to detect and quantify changes in emissions. Depending on data availability, we used carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements and/or tracer ratios to estimate fluxes at 1 urban site (Site 3) and 1 suburban site (Site 7) in Indianapolis, IN, USA, and 1 urban site (COM) in Los Angeles, CA, USA. We also compared the estimated fluxes of CO 2 from fossil fuel sources (CO 2 ff) at Sites 3 and 7 and the total CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 to 20 m, hourly resolution subdomains of the high-resolution CO 2 emissions inventory, Hestia, for the year 2020, introducing a new way to evaluate emissions inventories at small spatial and temporal scales. Using the flux-variance relationship, we detected and quantified abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 and COM in April 2020, coinciding with the stay-at-home order due to COVID-19 pandemic, as well as abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 in July 2018 coinciding with a highway closure next to the site. The Hestia emissions inventory detected a decrease in emissions in April 2020 at Sites 3 and 7, but this decrease differed in magnitude from those detected in the atmospheric estimates. Seasonal trends in emissions are similar between Hestia and the atmospheric estimates at Site 7. We use differences in seasonal and spatial trends between the flux estimation methods to identify potential sources of uncertainty in both the atmospheric and inventory methods. The results from this study show that the flux-variance estimation method is a useful tool to monitor local-scale emissions and evaluate high-resolution emissions inventories.
Carbon dioxide↗
Divergent urbanization-induced impacts on global surface urban heat island trends since 1980s
Urbanization experiences different speeds and forms under diverse development stages across the globe. However, urbanization-induced impacts on long-term surface urban heat island intensity (I s ) trends across global cities and the regulators of such impacts remain understudied. Here we estimate interannual trends in daytime I s (i.e., urban-rural differences in surface temperatures) across 511 major cities for 1985 –2020 using annual averages calculated by using reconstructed land surface temperature data derived from more than >250,000 Landsat thermal images. Our study reveals that the global mean I s growth rate is 0.156 °C/decade. We further examine I s change associated with per 1% impervious land growth (denoted as ß) in each city throughout the research period and during different periods. The global mean ß is 0.018 ± 0.025 °C/% (mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the whole period, with greater values in humid than in arid climates; and the ß may change during different periods, e.g., it has more than tripled when urban impervious land exceeds 30%, indicating the spatiotemporally divergent impacts of urbanization on Is trends across global cities. The spatial variations in ß across global cities are well correlated with rural vegetation abundance and precipitation but not with urban population. Among these three factors, rural vegetation abundance possesses the greatest standardized regression coefficient of partial least-squares model, signifying the critical role of biome background in regulating ß. Furthermore, the finding implies that future urbanization over densely vegetated regions should be more carefully and strategically planned due to the greater urbanization-induced surface warming effect.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA
Snow plays a major role in the hydrological cycle. Variations in snow duration and timing can have a negative impact on water resources. Excluding predicted changes in snowmelt rates and amounts could result in deleterious infrastructure, military mission, and asset impacts at military bases across the US. A change in snowpack can also lead to water shortages, which in turn can affect the availability of irrigation water. We performed trend analyses of air temperature, snow water equivalent (SWE) at 22 SNOTEL stations, and streamflow extremes for selected rivers in the snow-dependent and heavily irrigated Yakima River Basin (YRB) located in the Pacific Northwest US. There was a clear trend of increasing air temperature in this study area over a 30 year period (water years 1991–2020). All stations indicated an increase in average air temperatures for December (0.97 °C/decade) and January (1.12 °C/decade). There was also an upward trend at most stations in February (0.28 °C/decade). In December–February, the average air temperatures were 0.82 °C/decade. From these trends, we estimate that, by 2060, the average air temperatures for December–February at most (82%) stations will be above freezing. Furthermore, analysis of SWE from selected SNOTEL stations indicated a decreasing trend in historical SWE, and a shift to an earlier peak SWE was also assumed to be occurring due of the shorter snow duration. Decreasing trends in snow duration, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt runoff also resulted from snow modeling simulations of the YRB and the nearby area. We also observed a shift in the timing of snowmelt-driven peak streamflow, as well as a statistically significant increase in winter maximum streamflow and decrease in summer maximum and minimum streamflow trends by 2099. From the streamflow trends and complementary GEV analysis, we show that the YRB basin is a system in transition with earlier peak flows, lower snow-driven maximum streamflow, and higher rainfall-driven summer streamflow. This study highlights the importance of looking at changes in snow across multiple indicators to develop future infrastructure and planning tools to better adapt and mitigate changes in extreme events.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998-2020
This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine-driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR≤1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: The following decreasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby TDP FTR>1H failure rate • Standby TDP unavailability • Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR>1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of run hours (hours per reactor year).
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine Driven Pumps 1998–2022
This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR=1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10 year period: The following decreasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10 year period: • Standby TDP FTR>1H failure rate • Normally running TDP FTR failure rate • Standby TDP unavailability • Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby TDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR=1H hours (hours per reactor year) • Standby TDP frequency of FTR>1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running TDP frequency of start demands • Normally running TDP frequency of run hours • Normally running TDP frequency of FTR events.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Enhanced Component Performance Study: Turbine-Driven Pumps 1998-2024
This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of turbine driven pumps (TDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2024 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The TDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR=1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. No increasing trends were identified for TDPs for the most recent 10 year period.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor-Driven Pumps 1998-2020
This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-driven pumps (MDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2020 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR≤1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby MDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • Standby MDP frequency of FTR≤1H hours (hours per reactor year) • Standby MDP frequency of FTR>1H hours • Normally running MDP frequency of run hours. The following decreasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: • Standby MDP FTR≤1H failure probability • Normally running MDP FTR failure rate • Standby MDP unavailability • Normally running MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission) • Standby MDP frequency of FTR≤1H events (failures per reactor year) • Normally running MDP frequency of FTR events.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor Driven Pumps 1998–2022
This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-driven pumps (MDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2022 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR=1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period. The following increasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) Standby MDP frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year), (2) Standby MDP frequency of FTR=1H hours (hours per reactor year), (3) Standby MDP frequency of FTR>1H hours, and (4) Normally running MDP frequency of run hours. The following decreasing trends were identified for MDPs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) Standby MDP FTR=1H failure probability, (2) Normally running MDP FTR failure rate, (3) Standby MDP unavailability, (4) Standby MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission), and (5) Normally running MDP total unreliability (8-hour mission).
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Enhanced Component Performance Study: Motor Driven Pumps 1998-2024
This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of motor-driven pumps (MDPs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The data used in this study are based on the operating experience failure reports from calendar year 1998 through 2024 as reported in the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS). The MDP failure modes considered for standby systems are fail to start (FTS), fail to run (FTR) for one hour of operation (FTR=1H), FTR after one hour of operation (FTR>1H), and for normally running systems FTS and FTR. An eight-hour unreliability estimate is also calculated and trended. The component reliability estimates and the reliability data are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for reliability are provided for the entire study period.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Consistent thermodynamic properties for alicyclic components of jet fuels: Experimental data, estimation methods, and homologous series trends
Alkylcycloalkanes represent a significant fraction of jet fuel components. An evaluation of their thermodynamic properties, enthalpies of formation in liquid and gas phases and enthalpies of vaporization, was conducted. A combination of available experimental data, up-to-date group-contribution methods, high-level quantum-chemical calculations, and homologous series trends was used to identify outliers and to recommend the most reliable values. The group-contribution approach was found to work well for the enthalpies of vaporization. Its performance for the enthalpies of formation in the liquid and gas phases was found to be substantially less effective, especially considering notable differences in this property among stereoisomers. Computationally affordable high-level ab initio results and homologous series trend analysis appeared more reliable. In conclusion, the recommended property values for 212 individual compounds and their isomeric mixtures were provided.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers
Abstract The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗