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Global Simultaneous Estimation of Present-Day Surface Mass Trend and GIA from Data Combination
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Time Variable Gravity modeling for Precise Orbits Across the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-l and Jason-2 Missions
Modeling of the Time Variable Gravity (TVG) is believed to constitute one of the the largest remaining source of orbit error for altimeter satellite POD. The GSFC operational TVG model consists of forward modeling the atmospheric gravity using ECMWF 6-hour pressure data, a GRACE derived 20x20 annual field to account for changes in the hydrology and ocean water mass, and linear rates for C20, C30, C40, based on 17 years of SLR data analysis (IERS 2003) using the EIGEN-GL04S1 (a GRACE+Lageos-based geopotential solution). Although the GSFC Operational model can be applied from 1987, there may be long-term variations not captured by these linear models, and more importantly the linear models may not be consistent with more recent surface mass trends due to global climate change, We have evaluated the impact of TVG in two different wavs: (1) by using the more recent EIGEN-6S gravity model developed by the GFZ/GRGS tearm, which consists of annual, semi-annual and secular changes in the coefficients to 50x50 determined over 8(?) years of GRACE+Lageos+GOCE data (2003-200?): (2) Application of 4x4 solutions developed from a multi satellite SLR+DORIS solution based on GGM03S that span the period from 1993 to 2011. We have evaluated the recently released EIGEN6s static and time-varying gravity field for Jason-2 (J2). Jason-I (J1), and TOPEX/Posiedon (TP) Precise Orbit Determination (POD) spanning 1993-2011. Although EIGEN6s shows significant improvement for J2POD spanning 2008 - 2011, it also shows significant degradation for TP POD from 1992. The GSFC 4x4 time SLR+DORIS-based series spans 1993 to mid 2011, and shows promise for POD. We evaluate the performance of the different TVG models based on analysis of tracking data residuals use of independent data such as altimeter crossovers, and through analysis of differences with internally-generated and externally generated orbits.
Spatial and Temporal Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Trends, Glacio-Isostatic Adjustment, and Surface Processes from a Joint Inversion of Satellite Altimeter, Gravity, and GPS Data
We present spatiotemporal mass balance trends for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a statistical inversion of satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and elastic-corrected GPS data for the period 2003-2013. Our method simultaneously determines annual trends in ice dynamics, surface mass balance anomalies, and a time-invariant solution for glacio-isostatic adjustment while remaining largely independent of forward models. We establish that over the period 2003-2013, Antarctica has been losing mass at a rateof -84 +/- 22 Gt per yr, with a sustained negative mean trend of dynamic imbalance of -111 +/- 13 Gt per yr. West Antarctica is the largest contributor with -112 +/- 10 Gt per yr, mainly triggered by high thinning rates of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a dramatic increase in mass loss in the last decade, with a mean rate of -28 +/- 7 Gt per yr and significantly higher values for the most recent years following the destabilization of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula around 2010. The total mass loss is partly compensated by a significant mass gain of 56 +/- 18 Gt per yr in East Antarctica due to a positive trend of surface mass balance anomalies.
The Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Local Forcings in Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss
In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced substantial climactic change, including significant decreases in both sea ice extent and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance. These trends are overlain by substantial interannual variability in atmospheric circulation driven by large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the removal of Arctic sea ice can alter local atmospheric circulation through increased air temperature, clouds, and water vapor, which may contribute to increased surface melting on the GrIS. Here, we seek to characterize how these processes are linked to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss and constrain how the representation of these forcings can impact the prediction of meltwater runoff within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system (S2S v2.1). To do this, we use a combination of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, retrospective seasonal forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1, and independent GEOS simulations. Results from MERRA-2 reanalysis indicate that the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results in warm surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation across Greenland, both of which act to enhance summer ice surface mass losses. When compared with MERRA-2, retrospective forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1 system effectively reproduce the pattern of summer GrIS surface mass loss and demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting the magnitude of meltwater runoff at leads of 1 to 3 months. However, during periods with a strong negative NAO, ice sheet surface mass balance is substantially underestimated. This pattern is also associated with an underprediction of the Greenland Blocking Index height and over prediction of sea ice extent, suggesting that both local and non-local forcings may play a role in the reduced prediction skill during these periods. Using both retrospective forecasts and independent simulations, we characterize the relative importance of local and non-local mechanisms in driving summer GrIS
Hybrid Glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry (HIGA) Mass Balance Product for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic
We present a novel inversion algorithm that generates a mass balance field that is simultaneously consistent with independent observations of glacier inventory derived from optical imagery, cryosphere-attributed mass trends derived from satellite gravimetry, and ice surface elevation trends derived from airborne and satellite altimetry. We use this algorithm to assess mass balance across Greenland and the Canadian Arctic over the Sep-2003 to Oct- 2009 period at 26 kilometers resolution. We evaluate local algorithm-inferred mass balance against forty in situ point observations. This evaluation yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.15 mWE/a ( 0.15 meters (water equivalent) per annum), and highlights a paucity of in situ observations from regions of high dynamic mass loss and peripheral glaciers. We assess mass losses of 212 plus or minus 67 Gigatons per annum to the Greenland ice sheet proper, 38 Gigatons per annum to peripheral glaciers in Greenland, and 42 Gigatons per annum to glaciers in the Canadian Arctic. These magnitudes of mass loss are dependent on the gravimetry-derived spherical harmonic mass trend we invert. We spatially partition the transient glacier continuity equation by differencing algorithm inferred mass balance from modeled surface mass balance, in order to solve the horizontal divergence of ice flux as a residual. This residual ice dynamic field infers flux divergence (or submergent flow) in the ice sheet accumulation area and at tidewater margins, and flux convergence (or emergent flow) in land-terminating ablation areas, which is consistent with continuum mechanics theory.
Gravitational lensing by a smoothly variable surface mass density
The statistical properties of gravitational lensing due to smooth but nonuniform distributions of matter are considered. It is found that a majority of triple images had a parity characteristic for 'shear-induced' lensing. Almost all cases of triple or multiple imaging were associated with large surface density enhancements, and lensing objects were present between the images. Thus, the observed gravitational lens candidates for which no lensing object has been detected between the images are unlikely to be a result of asymmetric distribution of mass external to the image circle. In a model with smoothly variable surface mass density, moderately and highly amplified images tended to be single rather than multiple. An opposite trend was found in models which had singularities in the surface mass distribution.
A first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet
The Greenland ice sheet has been one of the largest sources of sea-level rise since the early 2000s. However, basal melt has not been included explicitly in assessments of ice-sheet mass loss so far. Here, we present the first estimate of the total and regional basal melt produced by the ice sheet and the recent change in basal melt through time. We find that the ice sheet’s present basal melt production is 21.4 +4.4/−4.0 Gt per year, and that melt generated by basal friction is responsible for about half of this volume. We estimate that basal melting has increased by 2.9 ± 5.2 Gt during the first decade of the 2000s. As the Arctic warms, we anticipate that basal melt will continue to increase due to faster ice flow and more surface melting thus compounding current mass loss trends, enhancing solid ice discharge, and modifying fjord circulation.
Amplitude of Supersonic Diffuser Flow Pulsations
A theoretical method for evaluating the stability characteristics and the amplitude and the frequency of pulsation of ram-jet engines without heat addition is presented herein. Experimental verification of the theoretical results are included where data were available. Theory and experiment show that the pulsation amplitude of a high mass-flow-ratio diffuser having no cone surface flow separation increases with decreasing mass flow. The theoretical trends for changes in amplitude, frequency, and mean-pressure recovery with changes in plenum-chamber volume were experimentally confirmed. For perforated convergent-divergent-type diffusers, a stability hysteresis loop was predicted on the pressure-recovery mass-flow-ratio curve. At a given mean mass-flow ratio, the higher.value of mean pressure recovery corresponded to oscillatory flow in the diffuser while the lower branch was stable. This hysteresis has been observed experimentally. The theory indicates that for a ram-jet engine of given diameter, the amplitude of pulsation of a supersonic diffuser is increased by decreasing the relative size of the plenum chamber with respect to the diffuser volume down to a critical value at which oscillations cease. In the region of these critical values, the stable mass-flow range of the diffuser may be increased either by decreasing the combustion chamber volume or by increasing the length of the diffuser.
Historical Context of a Recent Warming Event over Wilkes Land, Antarctica from Numerical Analyses
Recent melt events over polar ice sheets are of interest for identifying regions of vulnerability in a warming climate. On 11-March 2022 a ridging pattern formed in the jet stream near Enderby Land, Antarctica and progressed eastward. The ridge deepened markedly into a classic omega-shaped blocking pattern (Fig. 1), extending into the plateau by 14-March. The blocking pattern is remarkable for the circulation strength – which forced warm air and moisture into the high interior of the continent, its poleward extent, and its persistence. Here, we use GMAO FP, MERRA-2 analyses, conventional observations, and AIRS/Aqua L3 data to characterize the event. We wish to examine, (1) How unusual was the event relative to available analysis records, (2) What were the effects of the event on surface mass balance (SMB)? and (3) Is there a relation to general circulation trends that led to this event?
Water Storage Trends in High Mountain Asia
Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) in High Mountain Asia (HMA) could have major societal impacts, as the region’s large reservoirs of glaciers, snow, and groundwater provide a freshwater source to more than one billion people. We seek to quantify and close the budget of secular changes in TWS over the span of the GRACE satellite mission (2003–2016). To assess the TWS trend budget we consider a new high-resolution mass trend product determined directly from GRACE L1B data, glacier mass balance derived from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), groundwater variability determined from confined and unconfined well observations, and terrestrial water budget estimates from a suite of land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System (LIS). This effort is successful at closing the aggregated TWS trend budget over the entire HMA region, the glaciated portion of HMA, and the Indus and Ganges basins, where the full-region trends are primarily due to the glacier mass balance and groundwater signals. Additionally, we investigate the closure of TWS trends at individual 1-arc-degree mascons (area ≈12,000 km2); a significant improvement in spatial resolution over previous analyses of GRACE-derived trends. This mascon-level analysis reveals locations where the TWS trends are well-explained by the independent datasets, as well as regions where they are not; identifying specific geographic areas where additional data and model improvements are needed. The accurate characterization of total TWS trends and its components presented here is critical to understanding the complex dynamics of the region, and is a necessary step toward projecting future water mass changes in HMA.
Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Trends from Satellite and Surface Observations and Model Simulations over the North Atlantic Ocean from 2002 to 2012
Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.
Numerical Modeling of Flow Control in a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Diffuser at Transonic Mach Numbers
This paper will investigate the validation of a NASA developed, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset (S-shaped) inlet in transonic flow with passive and active flow control devices as well as the baseline case. Numerical simulations are compared to wind tunnel results of a BLI inlet conducted at the NASA Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Comparisons of inlet flow distortion, pressure recovery, and inlet wall pressures are performed. The numerical simulations are compared to the BLI inlet data at a freestream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of approximately 2 million based on the length of the fan-face diameter. The numerical simulations with and without wind tunnel walls are performed, quantifying effects of the tunnel walls on the BLI inlet flow measurements. The wind tunnel test evaluated several different combinations of jet locations and mass flow rates as well as a vortex generator (VG) vane case. The numerical simulations will be performed on a single jet configuration for varying actuator mass flow rates at a fix inlet mass flow condition. Validation of the numerical simulations for the VG vane case will also be performed for varying inlet mass flow rates. Overall, the numerical simulations were able to predict the baseline circumferential flow distortion, DPCPavg, very well for comparisons made within the designed operating range of the BLI inlet. However the CFD simulations did predict a total pressure recovery that was 0.01 lower than the experiment. Numerical simulations of the baseline inlet flow also showed good agreement with the experimental inlet centerline surface pressures. The vane case showed that the CFD predicted the correct trends in the circumferential distortion for varying inlet mass flow but had a distortion level that was nearly twice as large as the experiment. Comparison to circumferential distortion measurements for a 15 deg clocked 40 probe rake indicated that the circumferential distortion levels are very sensitive to the symmetry of the flow and that a miss alignment of the vanes in the experiment could have resulted in this difference. The numerical simulations of the BLI inlet with jets showed good agreement with the circumferential inlet distortion levels for a range of jet actuator mass flow ratios at a fixed inlet mass flow rate. The CFD simulations for the jet case also predicted an average total pressure recovery that was 0.01 lower than the experiment as was seen in the baseline. Comparison of the flow features the jet case revealed that the CFD predicted a much larger vortex at the engine fan-face when compare to the experiment.
Numerical Modeling of Flow Control in a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Diffuser at Transonic Mach Numbers
This paper will investigate the validation of the NASA developed, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset (S-shaped) inlet in transonic flow with passive and active flow control devices as well as a baseline case. Numerical simulations are compared to wind tunnel results of a BLI inlet experiment conducted at the NASA Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Comparisons of inlet flow distortion, pressure recovery, and inlet wall pressures are performed. The numerical simulations are compared to the BLI inlet data at a free-stream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of approximately 2 million based on the fanface diameter. The numerical simulations with and without tunnel walls are performed, quantifying tunnel wall effects on the BLI inlet flow. A comparison is made between the numerical simulations and the BLI inlet experiment for the baseline and VG vane cases at various inlet mass flow rates. A comparison is also made to a BLI inlet jet configuration for varying actuator mass flow rates at a fixed inlet mass flow rate. Overall, the numerical simulations were able to predict the baseline circumferential flow distortion, DPCP avg, very well within the designed operating range of the BLI inlet. A comparison of the average total pressure recovery showed that the simulations were able to predict the trends but had a negative 0.01 offset when compared to the experimental levels. Numerical simulations of the baseline inlet flow also showed good agreement with the experimental inlet centerline surface pressures. The vane case showed that the CFD predicted the correct trends in the circumferential distortion levels for varying inlet mass flow but had a distortion level that was nearly twice as large as the experiment. Comparison to circumferential distortion measurements for a 15 deg clocked 40 probe rake indicated that the circumferential distortion levels are very sensitive to the symmetry of the flow and that a misalignment of the vanes in the experiment could have resulted in this difference. The numerical simulations of the BLI inlet with jets showed good agreement with the circumferential inlet distortion levels for a range of jet actuator mass flow ratios at a fixed inlet mass flow rate. The CFD simulations for the jet case also predicted an average total pressure recovery offset that was 0.01 lower than the experiment as was seen in the baseline. Comparisons of the flow features for the jet cases revealed that the CFD predicted a much larger vortex at the engine fan-face when compare to the experiment.
Rotation of low-mass stars - A new probe of stellar evolution
Models of stars of various masses and rotational parameters were developed and compared with observations of stars in open clusters of various ages in order to analyze the evolution of rotating stars from the early premain sequence to an age of 1.7 x 10 to the 9th yrs. It is shown that, for stars older than 10 to the 8th yrs and less massive than 1.1 solar mass, the surface rotation rates depend most strongly on the properties of the angular momentum loss. The trends of the currently available observations suggest that the rotation periods are a good indicator of the field-star ages.
Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM
Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.
Thermal design of AOTV heatshields for a conical drag brake
Results are presented from an on-going study of the thermal performance of thermal protection systems for a conical drag brake type AOTV. Three types of heatshield are considered: rigid ceramic insulation, flexible ceramic blankets, and ceramic cloths. The results for the rigid insulation apply to other types of AOTV as well. Charts are presented in parametric form so that they may be applied to a variety of missions and vehicle configurations. The parameters considered include: braking maneuver heat flux and total heat load, heatshield material and thickness, heatshield thermal mass and conductivity, absorptivity and emissivity of surfaces, thermal mass of support structure, and radiation transmission through thin heatshields. Results of temperature calculations presented show trends with and sensitivities to these parameters. The emphasis is on providing information that will be useful in estimating the minimum required mass of these heatshield materials.
Spatially Refined Satellite Gravimetry Captures Human Signatures in Global Terrestrial Water Storage Trends
Human activities have directly altered the water cycle through water management, aquifer pumping, agricultural irrigation, and land use change. Although satellite gravimetry has transformed global hydrological research, its coarse resolution limits attribution of freshwater change to human activities at many management-relevant scales. Here we assessed global terrestrial water storage (TWS) trends from April 2002 to November 2025 using “stacked” regression of Level-1B intersatellite ranging data, which leverages temporal information and variability to dramatically improve effective spatial resolution relative to standard approaches. We combined this refined product with rigorous uncertainty analysis, autocorrelation-robust geostatistical methods, and literature assessment to evaluate TWS trend associations with land and water use, climate variability, and glacial mass loss. We identified TWS trend hotspots exhibiting significant spatial associations with anthropogenic 40 drivers, including groundwater and surface-water irrigation, rainfed agriculture, deforestation, and reservoir impoundment. Across these regions, cumulative TWS losses (3,122 Gt) substantially exceeded gains (2,432 Gt). Compared with traditional regression of monthly mascons, our approach yielded regional trend magnitudes that are on average 33% larger, revealing that global freshwater depletion, particularly from groundwater pumping, is considerably more acute than previously estimated. Multivariate regression models show that humans account for a significant share of the spatial variability in TWS trends on every non-polar continent except Australia. We detected localized TWS gains linked to rainfed agriculture, surface water irrigation, and reservoir filling that were unresolved in earlier gravimetric studies. The methodology provides a foundation for future gravity missions to independently track decadal freshwater change with unprecedented spatial fidelity.