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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Emissions of N2O, CH4 and CO2 from tropical forest soils

Emissions of nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide were measured at diverse locations in tropical forests of Brazil, Ecuador, and Puerto Rico using a static open chamber technique. Mean fluxes to the atmosphere were 1.7 x 10 to the 10th, -0.7 x 10 to the 10th, and 1.5 x 10 to the 14th molecules/sq cm per s for N2O, CH4, and CO2, respectively. The data indicate that tropical forests contribute a significant fraction of the global source for atmospheric N2O, about 40 percent of the current source, and possibly 75 percent of the preindustrial source. Methane is consumed by soils on average, but the sink is an insignificant part (less than 5 percent) of the atmospheric cycle for the gas. Emissions of CO2 from forest soils are higher at equatorial sites than at middle or high latitudes, as expected from ecological considerations. Soils emit CO2 at rates more than twice as large as the rate of carbon infall in litter; hence much of the emitted CO2 must arise from root metabolism.

Keller, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1988

Emissions of N2O from tropical forest soils - Response to fertilization with NH4(+), NO3(-), and PO4(3-)

Undisturbed oxisols in a central Amazon tropical forest were fertilized with ammonium, nitrate, or phosphate. Enhanced emissions of N2O were observed for all treatments within one day of fertilization, with the response NO3(-) much greater than NH4(+) much greater than PO4(3-). Approximately, 0.5 percent of applied NO3(-) was converted to N2O within two weeks after application, with less than 0.1 percent of the NH4(+) converted to N2O. These experiments reveal a potentially large source of N2O from microbial reduction of NO3(-) in the clay soils of Amazonia.

Keller, M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Emission of nitric oxide (NO) from tropical forest soils and exchange of NO between the forest canopy and atmospheric boundary layers

Emissions of NO from soils in the Amazon rain forest were measured at 66 locations using an enclosure technique, and continuous vertical profiles of NO and O3 were measured between the ground and 41-m altitude. Fluxes of NO averaged 8.9 (+ or - 1.5) x 10 to the 9th molecules/sq cm per sec from the dominant (yellow clay) soils of the region, with larger fluxes observed from adjacent white sand soils. Fluxes from clay soils were lower by more than a factor of 5 than fluxes observed during the dry season at a nearby site. Low soil emission rates were reflected in lower concentrations of NO at the top of the forest canopy in the wet season, only 30-50 parts per trillion by volume during the daytime. The measured fluxes are consistent with chemical mass balances for NO within the forest canopy, calculated from the NO and O3 profiles taken at night, and with observations of NO between 150 and 5000 m altitude. Measurements of NO emission rates from soil plots fertilized using NaNO3, NH4Cl, or sucrose indicated that a reductive pathway (denitrification) may have been primarily responsible for production of the NO released by both clay and sand soils.

Bakwin, Peter S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Ecological applications of high resolution spectrometry

Future directions of NASA's space program plans include a significant effort at studying the Earth as a system of interrelated ecosystems. As part of NASA's Earth Observing System (Eos) Program a series of space platforms will be launched and operated to study the Earth with a variety of active and passive instruments. Several of the Eos instruments will be capable of imaging the planet's surface reflectance on a large number of very narrow portions of the solar spectrum. After the development of appropriate algorithms, this reflectance information will be used to determine key parameters about the structure and function of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the pattern and processes of those systems across large areas of the globe. Algorithm development applicable to terrestrial systems will permit the inference of ecological processes from high resolution spectrometry data, similar to that to be forthcoming from the Eos mission. The first summer was spent working with tropical soils and relating their reflectance characteristics to particle size, iron content, and color. This summer the emphasis is on vegetation and work was begun with the Forest Ecosystems Dynamics Project in the Earth Resources Branch where both optical and radar characteristics of a mixed conifer/hardwood forest in Maine are being studied for use in a ecological modeling effort. A major series of aircraft overflights will take place throughout the summer. Laboratory and field spectrometers are used to measure the spectral reflectance of a hierarchy of vegetation from individual leaves to whole canopies for eventual modeling of their nutrient content using reflectance data. Key leaf/canopy parameters are being approximated including chlorophyll, nitrogen, phosphorus, water content, and leaf specific weight using high resolution spectrometry alone. Measurements are made of carbon exchange across the landscape for input to a spatial modeling effort to gauge production within the forest. A Geographic Information System approach is used to associate these data, images, and other collateral information for the forest into a database with a common projection suitable for spatial modeling.

Lawrence, William T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Cross-system comparisons of soil nitrogen transformations and nitrous oxide flux in tropical forest ecosystems

Soil nitrogen transformations and nitrous oxide flux across the soil-air interface have been measured in a variety of tropical forest sites and correlated with patterns of nitrogen circulation. Nitrogen mineralizaton and nitrification potentials were found to be high in the relatively fertile Costa Rica sites and the Amazonian oxisol/ultisols, intermediate in Amazonian white sand soils, and low in the Hawaiian montane sites. Nitrous oxide fluxes ranged from 0 to 6.2 ng/sq cm per h, and the mean flux per site was shown to be highly correlated with mean nitrogen mineralization.

Matson, Pamela A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRS2001

Unexprected Changes in Soil Phosphorus Dynamics Following Tropical Deforestation to Cattle Pasture

Phosphorus (P) is widely believed to limit plant growth and organic matter storage in a large fraction of the world's lowland tropical rainforests. We investigated how the most common land use change in such forests, conversion to cattle pasture, affects soil P fractions along forest to pasture chronosequences in the central Brazilian Amazon and in southwestern Costa Rica. Our sites represent a broad range in rainfall, soil type, management strategies, and total soil P (45.2 - 1228.0 microng P / g soil), yet we found some unexpected and at times strikingly similar changes in soil P in all sites. In the Brazilian sites, where rainfall is relatively low and pasture management is more intense than in the Costa Rican sites, significant losses in total soil P and soil organic carbon (SOC) were seen with pasture age on both fine-textured oxisol and highly sandy entisol soils. However, P losses were largely from occluded, inorganic soil P fractions, while organic forms of soil P remained constant or increased with pasture age, despite the declines in SOC. In Costa Rica, SOC remained constant across the oxisol sites and increased from forest to pasture on the mollisols, while total soil P increased with pasture age in both sequences. The increases in total soil P were largely due to changes in organic P; occluded soil P increased only slightly in the mollisols, and remained unchanged in the older oxisols. We suggest that changes in the composition and/or the primary limiting resources of the soil microbial community may drive the changes in organic P. We also present a new conceptual model for changes in soil P following deforestation to cattle pasture.

Townsend, Alan R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Soil emissions of nitric oxide in a seasonally dry tropical forest of Mexico

Soil emissions of NO were measured at the Chamela Biological Station, Mexico, using soil covers and a field apparatus of NO detection based on CrO3 conversion of NO to NO2 and detection of NO2 by chemiluminescence with Luminol. Mean NO fluxes from forest soils ranged from 0.14 to 0.52 ng NO-N/sq cm/hr during the dry season and from 0.73 to 1.27 ng NO-N/sq cm/hr during the wet season. A fertilized floodplain pasture exhibited higher fluxes, but an unfertilized upland pasture, which represents the fastest growing land use in the region, had flux rates similar to the forest sites. Wetting experiments at the end of the dry season caused large pulses of NO flux, equaling 10 percent to 20 percent of the estimated annual NO emissions of 0.5-1.0 kg N/ha from the forest sites. Absence of a forest canopy during the dry season and the first wet season rain probably results in substantial NO(x) export from the forest system that may be important to regional atmospheric chemical processes. Wetting experiments during the wet season and a natural rain event had little or no stimulatory effect on NO flux rates.

Davidson, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Data Assimilation on the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

The role of soil moisture in the evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land has long been recognized. Dry land surface conditions can lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions can help sustain or even re-intensify a TC. The ability to forecast post-landfall TC evolution and mitigate the associated socio-economic impact thus hinges on accurate knowledge of land surface conditions prior to landfall. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides accurate observations of soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has been shown that the assimilation of SMAPbrightness temperatures (Tb) significantly improves modeled land surface states and thus has the potential to constrain land surface initial conditions in TC forecasts. In this presentation, we investigate this potential through an extensive set of Observing System Experiments that systematically assess the impact of assimilating SMAP Tbs on TC forecast skill in the Goddard Earth Observing System. Focusing on the case of TC Idai, we show that the assimilation of SMAP generally leads to a drier soil moisture analysis for the land surface underneath much of the storm’s circulation. An exception is the direct TC track, where SMAP assimilation increases soil moisture. These changes are reflected in the surface fluxes, which propagate the land surface state changes to the atmosphere. This results a TC that is overall weaker with lower winds, but with a better-defined eye and a slightly smaller track error than a simulation without SMAP DA. The changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of SMAP also impact the total precipitation amounts as well as the precipitation structure associated with TC Idai.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling, Simulation, and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability

A planning workshop on "Modeling, Simulation and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability" was held in June 2003. This workshop was the first of a number of meetings planned to follow the NASA-sponsored workshop entitled "Prospects For Improved Forecasts Of Weather And Short-Term Climate Variability On Sub-Seasonal Time Scales" that was held April 2002. The 2002 workshop highlighted a number of key sources of unrealized predictability on subseasonal time scales including tropical heating, soil wetness, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) [a.k.a Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO)], the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. The overarching objective of the 2003 follow-up workshop was to proceed with a number of recommendations made from the 2002 workshop, as well as to set an agenda and collate efforts in the areas of modeling, simulation and forecasting intraseasonal and short-term climate variability. More specifically, the aims of the 2003 workshop were to: 1) develop a baseline of the "state of the art" in subseasonal prediction capabilities, 2) implement a program to carry out experimental subseasonal forecasts, and 3) develop strategies for tapping the above sources of predictability by focusing research, model development, and the development/acquisition of new observations on the subseasonal problem. The workshop was held over two days and was attended by over 80 scientists, modelers, forecasters and agency personnel. The agenda of the workshop focused on issues related to the MJO and tropicalextratropical interactions as they relate to the subseasonal simulation and prediction problem. This included the development of plans for a coordinated set of GCM hindcast experiments to assess current model subseasonal prediction capabilities and shortcomings, an emphasis on developing a strategy to rectify shortcomings associated with tropical intraseasonal variability, namely diabatic processes, and continuing the implementation of an experimental forecast and model development program that focuses on one of the key sources of untapped predictability, namely the MJO. The tangible outcomes of the meeting included: 1) the development of a recommended framework for a set of multi-year ensembles of 45-day hindcasts to be carried out by a number of GCMs so that they can be analyzed in regards to their representations of subseasonal variability, predictability and forecast skill, 2) an assessment of the present status of GCM representations of the MJO and recommendations for future steps to take in order to remedy the remaining shortcomings in these representations, and 3) a final implementation plan for a multi-institute/multi-nation Experimental MJO Prediction Program.

Waliser, Duane↗
NASA NTRS2010

Airborne Dust, "The Good Guy or the Bad Guy": How Much do We Know?

Processes in generating, transporting, and dissipating the airborne dust particles are global phenomena -African dust regularly reaching the Alps; Asian dust seasonally crossing the Pacific into North America, and ultimately the Atlantic into Europe. One of the vital biogeochemical roles dust storms play in Earth's ecosystem is routinely mobilizing mineral dust, as a source of iron, from deserts into oceans for fertilizing the growth of phytoplankton -the basis of the oceanic food chain. Similarly, these dust-laden airs also supply crucial nutrients for the soil of tropical rain forests, the so-called womb of life that hosts 50-90% of the species on Earth. With massive amounts of dust lifted from desert regions and injected into the atmosphere, however, these dust storms often affect daily activities in dramatic ways: pushing grit through windows and doors, forcing people to stay indoors, causing breathing problems, reducing visibility and delaying flights, and by and large creating chaos. Thus, both increasing and decreasing concentrations of doses result in harmful biological effects; so do the airborne dust particles to our Living Earth. Since 1997 NASA has been successfully launching a series of satellites - the Earth Observing System - to intensively study, and gain a better understanding of, the Earth as an integrated system. Through participation in many satellite remote-sensing/retrieval and validation projects over the years, we have gradually developed and refined the SMART (Surface-sensing Measurements for Atmospheric Radiative Transfer) and COMMIT (Chemical, Optical & Microphysical Measurements of In-situ Troposphere) mobile observatories, a suite of surface remote sensing and in-situ instruments that proved to be vital in providing high temporal measurements, which complement the satellite observations. In this talk, we will present SMART-COMMIT which has played key roles, serving as network or supersite, in major international research projects such as the Joint Aerosol Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX), a core element of the Asian Monsoon Years (AMY, 2008-2012). SMART-COMMIT deployments during 2008 AMY/JAMEX were conducted in northwestern China to characterize the properties of dust-laden aerosols. In 2009, SMART-COMMIT also participated in the JAMEX/RAJO-MEGHA (Radiation, Aerosol Joint Observations-Monsoon Experiment in the Gangetic-Himalayan Area; Sanskrit for Dust-Cloud) to study the aerosol properties, solar absorption and the associated atmospheric warming, and the climatic impact of elevated aerosols during the premonsoon season in South Asia. To fully characterize the properties of airborne dust in the field is an important but challenging task. In this seminar, we will present our recent measurements and retrievals of airborne dust properties.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗
NASA NTRS1994

Short term responses of nitrogen trace gas emissions to nitrogen fertilization in tropical sugar cane: Variations due to soils and management practices

Nitrogen (N) fertilization of agricultural systems is thought to be a major source of the increase in atmospheric N2O; NO emissions from soils have also been shown to increase due to N fertilization. While N fertilizer use is increasing rapidly in the developing world and in the tropics, nearly all of our information on gas emissions is derived from studies of temperate zone agriculture. Using chambers, we measured fluxes of N2O and NO following urea fertilization in tropical sugar cane systems growing on a variety of soil types in the Hawaiian Islands, USA. On the island of Maui, where urea is applied in irrigation lines and soils are mollisols and inceptisols, N2O fluxes were elevated for a week or less following fertilization; maximum average fluxes were typically less than 30 ng cm(exp -2)/ h. NO fluxes were often an order of magnitude less than N2O. Together, N2O and NO represented from 0.01 - 0.5% of the applied N. In fields on the island of Hawaii, where urea is broadcast on the surface and soils are andisols, N2O fluxes were similar in magnitude to Maui but remained elevated for much longer periods after fertilization. NO emissions were 2-5 times higher than N2O through most of the sampling periods. Together the gases loss represented approximately 1. 1 - 3% of the applied N. Laboratory studies indicate that denitrification is a critical source of N2O in Maui, but that nitrification is more important in Hawaii. Experimental studies suggest that differences in the pattern of N2O/NO and the processes producing them are a result of both carbon availability and placement of fertilizer, and that the more information-intensive fertilizer management practice results in lower emissions.

Matson, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Human impacts on soil carbon dynamics of deep-rooted Amazonian forests and effect of land use change on the carbon cycle in Amazon soils

The main objective of these NASA-funded projects is to improve our understanding of land-use impacts on soil carbon dynamics in the Amazon Basin. Soil contains approximately one half of tropical forest carbon stocks, yet the fate of this carbon following forest impoverishment is poorly studied. Our mechanistics approach draws on numerous techniques for measuring soil carbon outputs, inputs, and turnover time in the soils of adjacent forest and pasture ecosystems at our research site in Paragominas, state of Para, Brazil. We are scaling up from this site-specific work by analyzing Basin-wide patterns in rooting depth and rainfall seasonality, the two factors that we believe should explain much of the variation in tropical soil carbons dynamics. In this report, we summarize ongoing measurements at our Paragominas study site, progress in employing new field data to understand soil C dynamics, and some surprising results from our regional, scale-up work.

Nepstad, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS1987

Nitrogen transformations following tropical forest felling and burning on a volcanic soil

Nitrogen transformations and loss were measured following forest clearing in a relatively fertile tropical forest site. Nitrogen mineralization, nitrification, and amounts of ammonium and nitrate increased substantially in surface soils during the 6 mo following burning, then returned to background levels. The nitrogen content of microbial biomass declined to half its original value 6 mo after clearing and remained low in the cleared sites. Plant uptake of nitrogen was substantial on cleared plots (50 g/sq m), but it accounted for only 18 percent of N-15 label added to field plots. MIcrobial immobilization of N-15 was small relative to that in a cleared temperate site, and measurements of denitrification potentials suggested that relatively little mineralized nitrogen was lost to the atmosphere. Substantial amounts of nitrogen (40-70 g/sq m) were retained as exchangeably bound nitrate deep in the soils of a cleared plot on which revegetation was prevented; this process accounted for 12 percent of the N-15 label added to field plots.

Matson, Pamela A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗