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DOE OSTI2026

Two-stage formation-energy correction (NbZr, TaZr, VZr)

This bundle contains the scripts, the raw and corrected per-structure data, and the manuscript plots for the NbZr / TaZr / VZr BCC binary formation energies and the associated RMSDs. Why a two-stage correction is necessary: The "raw" formation energy of every relaxed VASP configuration is computed in the usual way, FE_raw(c) = E_alloy(c) - sum_i x_i * E_pure_i , where E_pure_i are the per-atom total energies of the pure-element reference structures (Nb, Ta, V, Zr in the same BCC supercell, with identical INCAR / KPOINTS / PAW choices). With perfectly consistent reference runs the raw FE should vanish at the two pure-element endpoints (x = 0 and x = 1) by construction. In practice this does not hold for two reasons that are present in our dataset: 1. Reference-energy inconsistency (composition-dependent bias). Even with identical input parameters, the pure-element runs (stored in `corrected_DFT_pure_element_runs/`) differ slightly from the values that would be implied by the alloy runs at near-pure compositions (a few meV/atom). This bias is approximately linear in concentration, because the residual error in E_pure_Nb (or E_pure_Ta / E_pure_V) propagates into FE_raw(c) as (1 - x) * dE_pure_1, and the corresponding error in E_pure_Zr propagates as x * dE_pure_2. Left uncorrected, this produces a non-physical "tilt" of FE_raw(x) and shifts the entire FE-vs-x cloud away from zero at the endpoints. 2. Endpoint anchoring against the audited true endpoints. The strict endpoint values (FE_x0_meVatom, FE_x1_meVatom in `corrected_fe_strict_endpoints_20260518/strict_endpoint_check_20260518.csv`) were re-derived from an independent cross-check of the pure-element runs. After stage 1 removes the linear bias, the near-pure compositions in the alloy dataset still extrapolate to values that differ slightly from these audited endpoints — because stage 1 is fit from a few near-end alloy bins, not from the audited pure-element references themselves. The README.txt file discusses how these issues are addressed by the two-stage correction, and describes folder layout, pipeline summary, and how to re-run.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

A two-stage optical fusion framework for wildfire severity mapping across the conterminous United States

Accurate wildfire severity mapping (WSM) is essential for post-fire recovery planning, erosion risk assessment, ecosystem monitoring, and disaster risk reduction. Although Landsat and Sentinel optical imagery have been widely used for burn severity assessment, the added value of fusing multiple optical sensors has not been sufficiently quantified across diverse fire events, particularly since the launch of Landsat-9. This study evaluates whether multisensor optical fusion improves wildfire severity mapping relative to single-sensor baselines using Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, and Landsat-9 imagery across 40 wildfire events in the conterminous United States. We tested a two-stage fusion framework that combines feature-level fusion with pixel-level dimensionality reduction. First, feature-level fused datasets were created through early fusion by combining standardized post-fire bands from each sensor into a single predictor stack. Both raw reflectance bands and pairwise spectral transforms were retained to capture within- and cross-sensor spectral interactions. Second, Linear Discriminant Analysis was applied to both single-sensor and fused datasets to produce comparable low-dimensional feature spaces. Six machine-learning classifiers were then used to benchmark model performance with repeated spatially buffered train–test splits. Results show that Landsat-9 was the strongest single-sensor baseline. Among the fusion strategies, Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 produced the most consistent improvement and reduced performance variability. Landscape-condition analysis further showed that this fusion was most beneficial in shrubland-dominated and high-terrain fires, where it achieved the highest overall mean accuracy and the fewest failures. In contrast, its benefits were less reliable in evergreen forests, mixed vegetation, and low- to moderate-elevation terrain. In operational settings, the Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 configuration offers a practical solution for post-fire recovery planning, erosion-risk assessment, watershed management, and ecological monitoring when field observations are available and timely satellite-based information is needed.

Landsat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Modeling of a Two-Stage Ocean Current Turbine

The Equinox Ocean Turbines (EQOT) current energy converter has a unique design with power generation in two small-diameter turbines attached to the tips of a large-diameter passive rotor. This configuration offers some key advantages for capturing ocean currents. With no centrally placed generator, almost no reaction torque is required at the nacelle of the main large-diameter rotor, and the small-diameter tip turbine generators operate at a higher speed and lower torque. The physics that determine the performance and loads on the turbine are also unique. The interactions of the flow field between the two stages and the general architecture of the system cannot be captured with traditional mid-fidelity modeling tools. For design iterations and large sets of load cases, it is important to have mid-fidelity models that can capture the important phenomenon with enough accuracy to identify global trends. This work uses a limited set of high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to help inform the selection of and construction of a custom mid-fidelity model. Mid-fidelity modeling approaches were verified by comparing key turbine performance quantities to those found with the CFD model. Hydrodynamic interactions of the two-stage rotor were identified through high-fidelity CFD modeling. This highlighted the impact of the main rotor tip vortex and wake on the secondary rotor apparent inflow. This results in a relative flow rotation and sharp deficit, that change the optimal secondary rotor rotation speed and adds unsteadiness to the blade loading respectively. Multiple mid-fidelity approaches were evaluated for their ability to capture these effects. A simple approximation of the combined-stage performance based on single-stage BEM provides a reasonable rough prediction, especially near the peak TSR values, with some larger discrepancy at higher TSRs. Predicting the combined-stage performance based on single-stage CFD data improves this prediction across the TSR range. Although the combined-stage modeling in OLAF was not successful in this stage of the project, it showed promise as a mid-fidelity method, assuming the parameters can be tuned to account for the significant differences in time and length scales between the main and secondary rotors. This may be addressed through code changes in future work. A significant finding from the OLAF work was the agreement between the vortex core radius values found independently via a parameter space search and via CFD. The technique of using single-stage secondary rotor BEM, with a custom inflow taken from single-stage main rotor CFD or OLAF, provides an efficient method to capture one-way coupled flow interactions. This method provided generally good predictions of the impact of the flow rotation on the secondary rotor but struggled to accurately predict the peaks of the unsteady load progression. Future work could include some superposition of a tuned main rotor trailing edge viscous wake into the custom inflow to better predict this interaction.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Light Envelope Improvements

This report is part of series describing a variety of different ResStock(TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Light Envelope Improvements" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results. All results can be accessed on the ResStock Open Energy Data Initiative "End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock" data lake and on the data viewer at resstock.nlr.gov.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

In situ TEM annealing of neutron-irradiated Ti reveals a two-stage mechanism for elevated temperature radiation damage recovery

Understanding how irradiation-induced defects evolve at elevated temperatures is of critical importance to predicting materials' behavior under steady-state and accident scenarios. However, such mechanistic insight into microstructural evolution is limited by the nature of ex situ annealing and subsequent imaging. Here we show direct observation and quantification of defect recovery in neutron-irradiated Ti using in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) annealing experiments. In agreement with our prior work, and at temperatures below the irradiation temperature (T irr = 300 °C), dislocation loops are observed to glide. At elevated temperatures (>500 °C), dislocation lines become mobile and promote significant recovery of the microstructure. These mechanisms challenge the established electron irradiation-based model for radiation damage recovery, which originally suggests dissolution of static defect clusters, and demonstrates the importance of in situ characterization in understanding defect evolution in irradiated materials.

Hirst, Charles A. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, M↗

DOE OSTI2026

Classical-Quantum Algorithm for Solving Stochastic Programs

Stochastic programming provides a rigorous mathematical framework for making decisions under uncertainty in a risk-aware manner. Two-stage stochastic programming is, perhaps, the simplest form of this framework. Here the first-stage variables represent decisions that must be made "here and now" in the face of uncertainty, while the second-stage variables are decisions made after uncertain events. However, the broad adoption of stochastic programming has been hindered by computational challenges caused by the two-stage stochastic programming formulation which requires solving an ensemble of optimization problems. Using quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), quantum computers have shown the theoretic ability to compute expectations with Monte-Carlo methods with quadratically fewer samples than classical methods. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for computing the expectation term using QAE for given first-stage decisions. Further, we detail methods of computing gradient information from the quantum calculation enabling the application of classical gradient-based optimization techniques. The result is a classical-quantum hybrid method of solving two-stage stochastic programs. These techniques are demonstrated with computational experiments based an engineering optimization problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A flexible and differentiable coil proxy for stellarator equilibrium optimization

Balancing plasma performance and coil cost is a significant challenge when designing a stellarator power plant. Most current stellarator designs are produced through two-stage optimization: stage-1 for the equilibrium and stage-2 for a coil design that reproduces its magnetic configuration. Because few proxies connect both stages, two-stage optimization can produce plasmas that have high-quality physical properties but overly complex coils. In recent years, single-stage optimization has increasingly been used to optimize the plasma and coils simultaneously in order to improve the plasma–coil balance. However, all existing single-stage tools are specialized for filament coils, cannot model coil systems containing permanent magnets or dipole arrays, and continue to be challenged by numerical problems. The quasi-single-stage optimization finds a middle ground by integrating a coil optimization subproblem into stage-1 optimization. We present a flexible, differentiable coil complexity proxy based on the newly developed QUADCOIL coil optimization code. QUADCOIL is fast and can target realistic coil metrics and constraints that are unavailable to codes with comparable speed. We demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the QUADCOIL proxy by presenting two QSS optimization studies. The first study produces a permanent magnet solution for the MUSE stellarator with 34% fewer magnets than previous solutions. The second study produces a coil solution for the ARIES-CS stellarator with 30% reductions in both peak and root-mean-square force.

Fu, Lanke [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PP↗

DOE OSTI2026

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2027

Nodal capacity expansion planning with flexible large-scale load siting

We propose explicitly incorporating large-scale load siting into a stochastic nodal power system capacity expansion planning model that concurrently co-optimizes generation, transmission, and storage expansion. The potential operational flexibility of some of these large loads is also taken into account by considering them as consisting of a set of tranches with different reliability requirements, which are modeled as a constraint on expected served energy across operational scenarios. We implement our model as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem with cross-scenario expectation constraints. To overcome the challenge of scalability, we build upon existing work to implement this model on a high performance computing platform and exploit scenario parallelization using an augmented Progressive Hedging Algorithm. The algorithm is implemented using the bounding features of mpisppy, which have shown to provide satisfactory provable optimality gaps despite the absence of theoretical guarantees of convergence. We test our approach and assess the value of this proactive planning framework on total system cost and reliability metrics using realistic testcases geographically assigned to San Diego and South Carolina, with datacenter and direct air capture facilities as large loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Designing a Robust MEA-Based Post-Combustion Carbon Capture Process with Capture Rate Guarantees

This work presents an application of the nonlinear two-stage robust optimization solver PyROS to the model-based design and operation of a monoethanolamine scrubbing process for CO2 capture under epistemic uncertainty. Through this application, risk-averse process designs are successfully obtained for CO2 capture targets ranging from 90% to over 99%. In particular, the risk-averse solutions for CO2 capture targets of up to 98% are shown to be only marginally more expensive than their nominally optimal counterparts. Thus, the results demonstrate the utility of recently developed nonlinear robust optimization approaches for the solution of large-scale chemical process models under uncertainty.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Inorganic Carbon Sources on Low-pH Succinic Acid Production by Issatchenkia orientalis : Process Insights and Kinetic Analysis

Bio-based succinic acid (SA) production has attracted significant interest; however, the relationship between fermentation conditions and SA biosynthesis remains insufficiently understood, particularly under low-pH operation. In this study, an engineered, acid-tolerant, nonmodel yeast, Issatchenkia orientalis , was employed to investigate the role of inorganic carbon supplementation in SA production from glucose. Because regulation of gas-phase CO 2 during fermentation is challenging due to low solubility and off-gas losses, liquid-phase inorganic carbon sources, carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ) and sodium carbonate (Na 2 CO 3 ), were evaluated as indirect CO 2 donors. Fermentations were conducted in a corn steep liquor-based medium under acidic conditions. Shake-flask experiments demonstrated that H 2 CO 3 supplementation increased SA production, achieving a maximum titer of 8.9 g/L and a yield of 0.46 g/g glucose. Kinetic analysis of bench-scale fermentations showed that the SA formation was well described by the Luedeking–Piret model, indicating mixed growth-associated product formation with a substantial nongrowth-associated contribution under carbonic acid supplementation. Guided by these kinetic insights, a two-stage fed-batch fermentation strategy was implemented, resulting in an SA titer of 30 g/L and a yield of 0.57 g/g glucose within 115 h. Overall, this work provides process-relevant insights into integrating inorganic carbon utilization with low-pH fermentation to inform more sustainable SA biomanufacturing.

fed-batch fermentation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental observation and integrated modelling of proton-beryllium fusion in He and D plasmas at JET

Validated integrated modelling of JET ITER-like wall experiments in which fusion performance is driven by reactions between fast ions and intrinsically present metal wall impurities is presented. A steady-state L-mode plasma with dominant proton-beryllium fusion and neutron yields of up to ≈ 6·10 13 s -1 is developed in He and D, via radiofrequency heating of a H minority. The fusion drive is unambiguously confirmed by the neutral particle analyser, fast ion loss detector, and γ-ray diagnostics. Experiments are analysed via an integrated modelling framework, developed to model the two-stage proton beryllium-fusion chain and produce high-fidelity fusion product source terms. The modelling chain comprises TRANSP and JETTO for plasma core modelling, LOCUST for full orbit product tracking and collisional slowing-down, DRESS to resolve two- and three-body fusion kinematics, and MCNP for neutron transport calculations. Modelling shows that the primary 9 Be(p,n) 9 B reaction is the dominant neutron emitter at naturally present concentrations of beryllium in these experiments. The yield contribution of secondary reactions between fusion products and beryllium, 9 Be(d,n) 10 B and 9 Be(α,n) 12 C, is found to be negligible. The proton-deuteron knock-on effect in D plasmas is modelled, which is calculated to contribute ≈ 25% to the total neutron yield. For both He and D discharges the total computed neutron rates match fission chamber (FC) measurements within the combined experimental and computational uncertainty, with an average discrepancy of ≈ ± 20%. Realistic proton-beryllium neutron sources are propagated through JET’s MCNP neutron transport model which shows that 235 U FCs’ response is sensitive to p–Be source changes, with up to ≈ 10% variation compared to a D–D neutron source. We show that the high-energy tail of the fast proton minority can be studied with multi-foil neutron activation. The framework is also applied to the study of interactions between fast protons and boron impurities, of relevance to ITER. We calculate that in JET conditions a significant alpha source with DT-like energies could be generated through 11 B(p, α)2α fusion, and detected via γ-emission in secondary interactions between fast alphas and boron. The work represents an important step towards validating predictive integrated modelling capabilities for non-standard fusion reactions.

JET↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncovering obscured phonon dynamics from powder inelastic neutron scattering using machine learning

The study of phonon dynamics is pivotal for understanding material properties, yet it faces challenges due to the irreversible information loss inherent in powder inelastic neutron scattering spectra and the limitations of traditional analysis methods. In this study, we present a machine learning framework designed to reveal obscured phonon dynamics from powder spectra. Using a variational autoencoder, we obtain a disentangled latent representation of spectra and successfully extract force constants for reconstructing phonon dispersions. Notably, our model demonstrates effective applicability to experimental data even when trained exclusively on physics-based simulations. The fine-tuning with experimental spectra further mitigates issues arising from domain shift. Analysis of latent space underscores the model’s versatility and generalizability, affirming its suitability for complex system applications. Furthermore, our framework’s two-stage design is promising for developing a universal pre-trained feature extractor. This approach has the potential to revolutionize neutron measurements of phonon dynamics, offering researchers a potent tool to decipher intricate spectra and gain valuable insights into the intrinsic physics of materials.

domain adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Query Relaxation for LLM-Generated SPARQL Queries over Building Knowledge Graphs

When Knowledge Graph (KG) queries fail to match a pattern in a KG, they return no results. Identifying the statements causing these failures is tedious, especially for LLM-generated queries, which tend to be longer and more complex than queries written by hand. Query relaxation addresses this by systematically loosening query constraints until results are recovered. To evaluate the effectiveness of query relaxation against LLM generated queries, we propose a two-stage relaxation method combining triple deletion and path relaxation and test it against 1,823 failed queries for building KGs.

Paul, Lazlo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conduction-Cooled Operation of an SRF Multi-Cell Cavity

The development of compact, SRF-based accelerators for applications beyond research is experiencing notable advancements due to the use of cryocoolers for conduction-cooling instead of traditional liquid cryogens. Following the successful demonstration of a single-cell cavity operated through conduction cooling with three two-stage cryocoolers, Jefferson Lab (JLab) has made strides in the operation of a multi-cell resonator. This milestone paves the way for high-energy applications of compact, conduction-cooled SRF machines. The demonstration, carried out in collaboration with General Atomics, will take place in a dedicated horizontal test cryostat (HTC) at their San Diego facility. This presentation will highlight the technological developments, the latest results, and valuable lessons learned.

Vennekate, J. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extending Symmetry-Preserving Attention Networks (SPANet) for Jet Assignment in Fully Hadronic \(t\bar{t}\) Events

Fully hadronic \(t\bar{t}\) reconstruction requires assigning reconstructed jets to the two top-quark decay branches, \(t\bar{t}\to(Wb)(Wb)\to(qqb)(qqb)\). This is a combinatorially large, symmetry-rich, and frequently underconstrained set-assignment problem due to detector effects and partial reconstructability. SPANet provides a strong symmetry-preserving baseline for this task, but its standard inference eagerly commits to a single hypothesis and does not explicitly treat branch-level reconstructability decisions. We present a two-stage extension of the SPANet pipeline for fully hadronic \(t\bar{t}\) events: (i) SPANet is modified into a proposal model that generates a shortlist of candidate jet assignments; (ii) a custom dual-head set transformer is trained to re-rank these candidates and identify reconstructible branches. Our extension gives modest improvements in candidate-selection efficiency, with SPANet achieving \(69.9\%\) and our extension achieving \(71.1\%\). Finally, an oracle study of the generated shortlist shows a substantial upper bound of \(88.5\%\) on the evaluated fully reconstructable subset, suggesting that the shortlist contains significant residual information that is not fully exploited.

Lisondodi Tada, Mateo [Puerto Rico U., Mayaguez] (↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic Atmospheric River Ensembles Generated by Deep-AR

This dataset contains 35,850 synthetic landfalling atmospheric river (AR) realizations generated by the Deep-AR two-stage deep-learning framework over the Northeast Pacific and U.S. West Coast. The archive contains 25 stochastic ensemble members for each of 1,434 held-out observed seed events. Each synthetic realization is initialized from conditions 48 hours before the corresponding observed AR landfall and is generated autoregressively at 6-hour intervals over a 144-hour period. Deep-AR combines a deterministic residual network (ResNet) that advances the large-scale atmospheric state with a Wasserstein generative adversarial network (WGAN) that produces stochastic, high-resolution fields. Each HDF5 file contains 0.25° gridded synthetic integrated vapor transport components (qu, qv), 10 m wind components (u10, v10), and 6-hour accumulated precipitation on a common 200 × 480 grid. The files also include coordinate and datetime arrays. This dataset supports AR hazard analysis, ensemble-based uncertainty characterization, precipitation-extremes research, and regional stress testing. Synthetic files follow the naming convention deepar.model.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.vNN.h5. YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS identifies the UTC initial-condition timestamp, which occurs 48 hours before the diagnosed observed landfall, and vNN identifies the zero-padded ensemble member, ranging from v01 through v25. Each synthetic file can be paired with its corresponding observed file by matching the initial-condition timestamp. The paired observed file follows the naming convention deepar.obs.YYYYMMDD.HHMMSS.h5 and is available in the separately registered oracle/deepar.obs dataset at https://wdh.energy.gov/ds/oracle/deepar.obs (DOI: https://doi.org/10.21947/3377671).

17 WIND ENERGY↗