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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Building Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in Phoenix Using AutoBEM and Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) Weather Data

This research investigates the energy performance and CO2 emissions of each building stock across the Phoenix metropolitan area using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) framework and Model America v2 (MAv2) dataset from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) files were used for AutoBEM simulation. The simulation results from TMY and fTMY were compared. It was found that a projected 10.28% increase in total CO2 emissions and a 9.30% rise in total energy consumption by 2080–2099 relative to current typical conditions. The results highlight the disparities in emissions among different building stocks and the influence of climate change on future energy demand. The findings underscore the necessity of targeted policy interventions and retrofitting strategies (eg. advanced HVAC systems, improved insulation, reflective roofing) to mitigate emissions in high-energy-use and emission-intensed buildings, particularly as climate conditions evolve. This study contributes to the growing understanding of building-sector emissions and their long-term implications under future climate scenarios.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Commercial and Residential Hourly Load Profiles for All Typical Meteorological Year 3 (TMY3) Locations in the United States

One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High-quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation. To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy funded a 3-year project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that culminated in this publicly available dataset of calibrated and validated 15-minute-resolution load profiles for all major residential and commercial building types and end uses across all climate regions in the United States. These EULPs were created by calibrating the ResStock and ComStock physics-based building stock models using many different measured datasets, as described in the "Technical Report Documenting Methodology" linked in the submission.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing the Impact of Future Weather Data on Energy Consumption in Weatherization Assistant

This study supports the mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), which aims to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings and reduce their total residential expenditures. Specifically, we examine how projected future climate conditions may affect residential building energy performance by integrating future weather data into the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT). Since WAP evaluates the cost-effectiveness of retrofit measures over lifespans of up to 30 years, accounting for evolving climate conditions is increasingly important. To reflect future household energy demands, this study replaces historically based Typical Meteorological Year (TMY3) weather inputs with Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) datasets derived from global climate model (GCM) projections. A simulation-based framework was established to enable NEAT analysis under future weather conditions. This workflow involves converting EPW-format weather files into JSON inputs compatible with NEAT and generating degree-hour metrics needed for load calculations. The fTMY dataset used in this study was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory through downscaling of six GCMs under different emission scenarios and covers the period from 2020 to 2100. In contrast, the TMY3 dataset is based on historical weather data from 1961 to 1990. Simulations were conducted for benchmark single-family prototype buildings across ASHRAE climate zones 1–7, which cover all regions of the U.S. except the subarctic Zone 8 in northern Alaska, evaluating both heating and cooling loads under TMY3 and fTMY conditions. Four foundation types were tested, while heating systems were standardized, as NEAT does not differentiate thermal energy load by HVAC system type in its load calculations. Results show that fTMY weather input consistently yield lower heating loads and higher cooling loads across most locations, aligning with expected climate warming trends. Notably, colder regions such as zones 6A, 6B, and 7 experience marked reductions in heating load, while warmer and transitional zones, such as 2A (Lufkin, TX) and 3C (San Francisco, CA), have substantial increases in cooling loads. Although this study does not directly assess the performance of retrofit measures under future climate conditions, it provides a critical foundation for doing so. By quantifying shifts in baseline (i.e., pre-retrofit case) energy loads between historical and future weather files, the study highlights the importance of integrating climate-responsive data into audit tools. These findings will inform future efforts to evaluate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of weatherization measures under changing climate conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of scenario-specific modeling approaches to predict plane of array solar irradiation

The two main objectives of this study are to evaluate the extent to which the prediction of plane of array irradiance is improved when diffuse radiation is predicted using location-specific regression models developed from onsite measured data as against using generalized models and to estimate the expected uncertainties associated with plane of array irradiance predictions under different data collection scenarios likely to be encountered in practical situations.

Moslehi, Salim↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Impact of Plane-of-Array-Based TMYs on Solar Resource for PV Applications: Preprint

This study attempts to apprise stakeholders about the accurate use of a typical meteorological year (TMY) data set for decision-making that could potentially speed up the acceptance and deployment of projects and reduce risks to financiers and developers. A TMY data set represents hourly concatenation of 12 typical meteorological months constructed using multiyear data sets. Typically, TMY data sets are constructed under horizonal irradiance conditions that are then used in photovoltaic (PV) performance models for available energy calculations in a location after transposing the data to represent a desired plane-of-array (POA) orientation. In this study, we attempt to show that a POA TMY generated with corresponding POA irradiance time-series information produces significantly different results than a POA TMY generated by transposing a TMY data set. In some months, the differences can be more than 3% for irradiance and energy yield. These results point to the need for generating TMY data sets using POA irradiance time series representing the orientation at which PV panels will be deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Model Future Typical Meteorological (fTMY) Weather Files for nearly every US County

Exploring climate-induced impacts on building energy consumption can provide valuable insights for sustainable energy planning and environmental management in the face of a changing climate. By utilizing future weather data statistically downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 2020-2100, this paper presents a broadening industry-consensus approach for generating future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) weather files through a combination of statistical downscaling and high-performance computing that generalizes across decades, multiple locations for a region, and varying climate models. Furthermore, these fTMY files have been generated for 3,128 US counties for capturing potential weather on a 20-year basis.

Building↗
DOE OSTI2017

Spatial Analysis of Stover Moisture Content During Harvest Season in the U.S.

The moisture content of a maturing crop varies as the harvest season progresses. For crop residues such as corn stover, moisture content at the time of harvest can be as high as 75% (wet mass basis) to less than 20% depending on the geographic location (climate conditions) and stage of harvest. Biomass moisture content is critical for baling and extended storage. It is therefore essential to have an estimate of the quantities of corn stover available as wet or dry for various parts of the U.S. To this end, we analyzed hourly weather data (temperature, humidity, and rainfall) from the Typical Meteorological Year v.3 (TMY3) dataset developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. A recently published set of equations for calculating the moisture content of stover as a function of hourly temperature, humidity, and rainfall were used. The annual start and end of corn grain harvest along with annual grain production (in bushels) for each state were extracted from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reports. Using these datasets and moisture sorption equations, the percentage of corn stover tonnage with moisture content less than 20%, between 20% and 40%, or greater than 40% was estimated from the length of time that the biomass was in these moisture content ranges. These calculations were carried out for several locations within each of the states for which TMY data were available. It was concluded that about 37.2% of corn stover is dry (<20% moisture content), whereas 36.5% is wet (>40% moisture content) nationwide. The remaining 27.0% of corn stover is between 20% and 40% moisture content. Keywords: Corn stover, Equilibrium moisture content, Field drying, Moisture content, Stover harvest, Typical Meteorological Year data.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Developing a landscape of urban building energy use with improved spatiotemporal representations in a cool-humid climate

Urban buildings account for up to 75% of total energy use in the United States (U.S.). Understanding urban building energy use is important for developing feasible options to mitigate energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, an improved bottom-up building energy use model, named City Building Energy Use Model (City-BEUM), was developed to estimate building energy use for all buildings in Polk County, Iowa. First, 28 commercial and 6 residential building prototypes were designed by combing Assessor's parcel data and building footprint data. Then, the EnergyPlus in the CityBEUM was calibrated for all building prototypes using the U.S. Energy Information Administration's survey data, monthly utility meter data, and actual weather data. Finally, spatial and temporal variations of building energy use in the study area were estimated using the CityBEUM. Results indicate that the spatial variation of building energy use in the study area can be captured using the CityBEUM. With the monthly-calibrated model, the temporal pattern of urban building energy use can be well represented. The comparison of building energy use using the Typical Meteorological Year and actual weather data demonstrates the importance of using actual weather data in building energy modeling for an improved temporal representation.

CityBEUM, Urban building energy use, High spatiote↗
DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of regression and neural network models for solar forecasting over different short-term horizons

Forecasting solar irradiation has acquired immense importance in view of the exponential increase in the number of solar pho- tovoltaic (PV) system installations. In this article, analyses results involving statistical and machine-learning techniques to predict solar irradiation for di?erent forecasting horizons are reported. Yearlong typical meteorological year 3 (TMY3) datasets from three cities in the United States with di?erent climatic conditions have been used in this analysis. A simple forecast approach that assumes consecutive days to be identical serves as a baseline model to compare forecasting alternatives. To account for seasonal variability and to capture short-term ?uctuations, di?erent variants of the lagged moving average (LMX) model with cloud cover as the input variable are evaluated. Finally, the proposed LMX model is evaluated against an arti?cial neural network (ANN) model. How the one-hour and 24-hour models can be used in conjunction to predict di?erent short-term rolling horizons is discussed, and this joint application is illustrated for a four-hour rolling horizon forecast scheme. Finally, the e?ect of using predicted cloud cover values, instead of measured ones, on the accuracy of the models is assessed. Results show that LMX models do not degrade in forecast accuracy if models are trained with the forecast cloud cover data.

Inanlouganji, Alireza↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient prediction of concentrating solar power plant productivity using data clustering

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants convert solar energy to electricity and can be deployed with a thermal storage capability to shift electricity generation from time periods with available solar resource to those with high electricity demand or electricity price. Rigorous optimization of plant design and operational strategies can improve the market-competitiveness and commercial viability; however, such optimization may require hundreds of annual performance simulations, each of which can be computationally expensive when including considerations such as optimization of dispatch scheduling, sub-hourly time resolution, and stochastic effects due to uncertain weather or electricity price forecasts. This paper proposes a methodology to reduce the computational burden associated with simulation of electricity yield and revenue for CSP plants over a single- or multi-year period. Data-clustering techniques are employed to select a small number of limited-duration time blocks for simulation that, when appropriately weighted, can reproduce generation and revenue over a single year or within each year of a multi-year period. After selection of appropriate data features and weighting factors defining similarity between time-series profiles, the methodology captured annual revenue within 2.3%, 1.7%, or 1.2% using simulation of 10, 30, or 50 three-day exemplar time blocks, respectively, for each of three single-year location/weather/market scenarios and five plant configurations ranging from low to high solar multiple and storage capacity. When applied to multi-year datasets, the proposed methodology can capture inter-year variability that is unavailable from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets while simultaneously requiring simulation of less than a single year of data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY) resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Case for Custom TMY's: Examples Using the NSRDB

A typical meteorological year (TMY) data set essentially represents an hourly compilation of median months constructed using multi-year datasets. Although TMY data sets are generated from irradiance data in the horizontal plane, they are used in photovoltaic (PV) modeling for systems inclined to various angles. This paper demonstrates that a POA TMY (plane of array TMY) generated by selecting median months from a multi-year POA irradiance timeseries dataset produces significantly different results than a POA TMY generated by transposing a TMY dataset constructed from horizontal data. In some months the differences can be more than 3%. These results point to the need for generating TMY's using POA irradiance timeseries representing the orientation at which PV panels will be deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Case for Custom TMYs: Examples Using the NSRDB: Preprint

A typical meteorological year (TMY) essentially represents an hourly compilation of median months constructed using multiyear data sets. Although TMYs are generated from global horizontal irradiance, they are used in photovoltaic (PV) modeling for various plane-of-array (POA) representations. This paper demonstrates that a POA TMY generated with corresponding POA irradiance time-series information produces significantly different results than a POA TMY generated by transposing a TMY data set. In some months, the differences can be more than 3%. These results point to the need for generating TMYs using POA irradiance time series representing the orientation at which PV panels will be deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska

Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗