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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Grid Strength under Uncertain Renewable Generation

The increasing displacement of synchronous generators with renewable resources such as wind and solar via power electronic interfaces causes a reduction in short-circuit strength and weak grid issues. The variation and uncertainty of renewable energy increase challenges for identifying weak grid conditions. This paper proposes an efficient method to analyze the impact of uncertain renewable energy on grid strength. The proposed method uses the probabilistic collocation method (PCM) to approximate the results of grid strength assessment under uncertain renewable generation, in order to reduce computational burden without compromising result accuracy when compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). To improve the accuracy of the approximation results, the proposed method integrates the K-means clustering technique with PCM to select the approximation samples of input variables. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with MCS on the modified IEEE 9-bus system and modified IEEE 39-bus system with multiple renewable generators.

grid strength↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new pinnotherid crab of the genus Pinnixulala Palacios Theil, Cuesta & Felder, 2016 from uncertain infaunal hosts in the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a rediagnosis and updated synonymy for the polychaete symbiont Pinnixulala retinens (Rathbun, 1918) (Decapoda: Brachyura: Pinnotheridae)

Abstract A new infaunal pinnotherid crab, Pinnixulala heardin. sp., is described from muddy substrates of the middle to inner continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Molecular genetic analysis supports its separation from P. retinens (Rathbun, 1918), the only other western Atlantic member of the genus and a species most commonly found living as a symbiont of large polychaete worms. Both western Atlantic species are clearly separated from several described and undescribed populations of congeners occurring along shorelines of the eastern Pacific. We herein include a rediagnosis of P. retinens to facilitate morphological comparisons with P. heardin. sp. Unlike P. retinens, which is more common in shallow inshore waters and reaches larger sizes, the new species lacks development of a strong distally directed spine on the fourth pereopod ischium and has chelae that are at least as heavily developed as the second and third pereopods. In addition, the mature male first gonopods in P. heardin. sp. are tapered over their terminal one-third and directed distally, rather than being curved in their terminal one-third with the tips directed mesially, as they are in P. retinens. The new species is invariably collected from samples including infaunal worms and other invertebrates, but the specific hosts remain to be determined

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty with Design-Dependent Uncertain Variables

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) can provide a more robust understanding of a system, leading to better informed decisions earlier in the design process. The additional information that UQ provides can be leveraged during a design optimization process known as design under uncertainty that, when incorporated with multidisciplinary design and optimization, can become computationally infeasible due to the large number of responses required for meaningful results. Previous work addressed reducing the computational expense in design under uncertainty by incorporating analytic derivatives throughout polynomial chaos expansion. Although this allows design under uncertainty to be feasible for more systems, some multidisciplinary systems have design-dependent uncertain variables. This paper details an implementation of design dependent uncertain variables in a manner than preserves derivatives required for efficient gradient-based optimization throughout the process. Two analytic examples of design-dependent uncertain variables are given: the first transforms a uniform uncertain variable with one design variable and the second transforms a normal uncertain variable with two design variables. The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) results are comparable to both the Monte Carlo (MC) results and the analytic results for the two examples. A case study that maximizes the lift-to-drag ratio with a design-dependence between the wing leading edge sweep angle and uncertain parameter percentage of laminar flow is compared to a MC and alternative optimization formulations. This paper demonstrates that design-dependent uncertain variables are valid and hold throughout PCE.

Joanna N Schmidt↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty with Design-Dependent Uncertain Variables

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) can provide a more robust understanding of a system, leading to better informed decisions earlier in the design process. The additional information that UQ provides can be leveraged during a design optimization process known as design under uncertainty that, when incorporated with multidisciplinary design and optimization, can become computationally infeasible due to the large number of responses required for meaningful results. Previous work addressed reducing the computational expense in design under uncertainty by incorporating analytic derivatives throughout polynomial chaos expansion. Although this allows design under uncertainty to be feasible for more systems, some multidisciplinary systems have design-dependent uncertain variables. This paper details an implementation of design dependent uncertain variables in a manner than preserves derivatives required for efficient gradient-based optimization throughout the process. Two analytic examples of design-dependent uncertain variables are given: the first transforms a uniform uncertain variable with one design variable and the second transforms a normal uncertain variable with two design variables. The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) results are comparable to both the Monte Carlo (MC) results and the analytic results for the two examples. A case study that maximizes the lift-to-drag ratio with a design-dependence between the wing leading edge sweep angle and uncertain parameter percentage of laminar flow is compared to a MC and alternative optimization formulations. This paper demonstrates that design-dependent uncertain variables are valid and hold throughout PCE.

robust design↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Probabilistic Voltage Risk Assessment of MiniWECC System with Uncertain PVs and Wind Generations using Realistic Data

Here, it is found from actual data that due to generation dispatch and uncertain renewable generations and loads with complicated correlations, inferring the probabilistic distributions for uncertain inputs is challenging. Many probabilistic power flow approaches have been developed in the literature but their validations using realistic systems and data are lacking. This paper proposes a data-driven probabilistic analysis approach for system risk assessment of the miniWECC system using actual data. The sparse Gaussian process (SGP) is advocated to quantify the impacts of uncertain inputs on voltage security. SGP does not need the probability distribution function of uncertain inputs, can handle correlations and is highly computationally efficient. Results on the miniWECC system using realistic data show that SGP outperforms existing approaches and is able to quantify the voltage violation risks.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1993

Hybrid state-space self-tuning control of uncertain linear systems

The paper presents a hybrid state-space self-tuner using a new dual-rate sampling scheme for digital adaptive control of continuous-time uncertain linear systems. A state-space-based recursive least-squares algorithm, together with a variable forgetting factor, is used for direct estimations of both the equivalent discrete-time uncertain linear system parameters and the associated discrete-time state of a continuous-time uncertain linear system from the sampled input and output data. An analogue optimal regional pole-placement design method is used for designing an optimal observer-based analogue controller. A suboptimal observer-based digital controller is then designed from the designed analogue controller using digital redesign technique. To enhance the robustness of parameter identification and state estimation algorithms, a dynamic bound for a class of uncertain bilinear parameters and a fast-rate digital controller are developed at each fast-sampling period. Also, to accommodate computation loads and computation delay for developing the advanced hybrid self-tuner, the designed analogue controller and observer gains are both updated at each slow-sampling period. This control technique has been successfully applied to benchmark control problems.

Shieh, L. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Robust stabilization, robust performance, and disturbance attenuation for uncertain linear systems

This paper presents a linear quadratic regulator approach to the robust stabilization, robust performance, and disturbance attenuation of uncertain linear systems. The state-feedback designed systems provide both the robust stability with optimal performance and the disturbance attenuation with H-infinity-norm bounds. The proposed approach can be applied to matched and/or mismatched uncertain linear systems. For a matched uncertain linear system, it is shown that the disturbance attenuation robust-stabilizing controllers with or without optimal performance always exist and can be easily determined without searching; whereas, for a mismatched uncertain linear system, the introduced tuning parameters greatly enhance the flexibility of finding the disturbance-attenuation robust-stabilizing controllers.

Wang, Yeih J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Control of Fractional Diffusion with Uncertain Exponent

In this paper, we introduce and analyze a new class of optimal control problems constrained by elliptic equations with uncertain fractional exponents. We utilize risk measures to formulate the resulting optimization problem. We develop a functional analytic framework, study the existence of solution and rigorously derive the first-order optimality conditions. Additionally, we employ a sample-based approximation for the uncertain exponent and the finite element method to discretize in space. Further, we prove the rate of convergence for the optimal risk neutral controls when using quadrature approximation for the uncertain exponent and conclude with illustrative examples.

finite element method↗
DOE OSTI2023

Driving mode analysis—How uncertain functional inputs propagate to an output

Abstract Driving mode analysis elucidates how correlated features of uncertain functional inputs jointly propagate to produce uncertainty in the output of a computation. Uncertain input functions are decomposed into three terms: the mean functions, a zero‐mean driving mode, and zero‐mean residual. The random driving mode varies along a single direction, having fixed functional shape and random scale. It is uncorrelated with the residual, and under linear error propagation, it produces an output variance equal to that of the full input uncertainty. Finally, the driving mode best represents how input uncertainties propagate to the output because it minimizes expected squared Mahalanobis distance amongst competitors. These characteristics recommend interpretation of the driving mode as the single‐degree‐of‐freedom component of input uncertainty that drives output uncertainty. We derive the functional driving mode, show its superiority to other seemingly sensible definitions, and demonstrate the utility of driving mode analysis in an application. The application is the simulation of neutron transport in criticality experiments. The uncertain input functions are nuclear data that describe how Pu reacts to bombardment by neutrons. Visualization of the driving mode helps scientists understand what aspects of correlated functional uncertainty have effects that either reinforce or cancel one another in propagating to the output of the simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mitigating the Impacts of Uncertain Geomagnetic Disturbances on Electric Grids: A Distributionally Robust Optimization Approach

Severe geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) increase the magnitude of the electric field on the Earth’s surface (E-field) and drive geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) along the transmission lines in electric grids. These additional currents can pose severe risks, such as current distortions, transformer saturation and increased reactive power losses, each of which can lead to system unreliability. Today several mitigation actions (e.g., changing grid topology) exist that can reduce the harmful GIC effects on the grids. Making such decisions can be challenging, however, because the magnitude and direction of the E-field are uncertain and non-stationary. In this paper, we model uncertain E-fields using the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach that determines optimal transmission grid operations such that the worst-case expectation of the system cost is minimized. We also capture the effect of GICs on the nonlinear AC power flow equations. For solution approaches, we develop an accelerated column-and-constraint generation (CCG) algorithm by exploiting a special structure of the support set of uncertain parameters representing the E-field. Extensive numerical experiments based on “epri-21” and “uiuc-150” systems, designed for GMD studies, demonstrate (i) the computational performance of the accelerated CCG algorithm, (ii) the superior performance of distributionally robust grid operations that satisfy nonlinear, nonconvex AC power flow equations and GIC constraints, in comparison with standard stochastic programming-based methods during the out-of-sample testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1978

Repeated observation of an uncertain signal

The focus here is on sensory adaptation, or progressively more appropriate attention, as repeated observations yield more information about a signal with an uncertain parameter. The signal was a brief sinusoid; its uncertain parameter was frequency. Detection performance is predicted from data on a signal of known and constant frequency, as a function of the number of frequencies the uncertain signal could assume. A comparison condition presented a signal that varied in a manner not permitting adaptation. Models derived from signal detection theory describe the ideal observation processes for the three signal conditions, and supply quantitative predictions of relative performances. The models are generally supported by the data.

Swets, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Gyro motion boundedness under uncertain vehicle spin and acceleration

Using a quadratic Liapunov function, a condition is obtained for the boundedness of the motion of the gyro mounted in a vehicle which has a time-varying uncertain angular acceleration and deceleration omega-x(t) about the output axis, and is spinning with uncertain angular velocity omega-z(t) about the spin axis of the gyro. A region of ultimate boundedness in the theta-theta plane is obtained which the motion of the gyro eventually enters and in which it remains after a finite interval of time for any uncertain omega-x(t) and omega-z(t). The gyro motion is shown to be bounded if the uncertainty in the spin velocity does not exceed a certain threshold value. This condition disappears if omega-z(t) = 0.

Singh, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems

This paper presents a linear quadratic regulator approach to the stabilization of uncertain linear systems. The uncertain systems under consideration are described by state equations with the presence of time-varying unknown-but-bounded uncertainty matrices. The method is based on linear quadratic regulator (LQR) theory and Liapunov stability theory. The robust stabilizing control law for a given uncertain system can be easily constructed from the symmetric positive-definite solution of the associated augmented Riccati equation. The proposed approach can be applied to matched and/or mismatched systems with uncertainty matrices in which only their matrix norms are bounded by some prescribed values and/or their entries are bounded by some prescribed constraint sets. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results.

Shieh, L. S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dispatch optimization of a concentrating solar power system under uncertain solar irradiance and energy prices

The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

MAGIC: M arching Cubes Isosurface Uncertainty Visualization for G auss i an Uncertain Data With Spatial C orrelation

Here, in this paper, we study the propagation of data uncertainty through the marching cubes algorithm for isosurface visualization for correlated uncertain data. Consideration of correlation has been shown paramount for avoiding errors in uncertainty quantification and visualization in multiple prior studies. Although the problem of isosurface uncertainty with spatial data correlation has been previously addressed, there are two major limitations to prior treatments. First, there are no analytical formulations for uncertainty quantification of isosurfaces when the data uncertainty is characterized by a Gaussian distribution with spatial correlation. Second, as a consequence of the lack of analytical formulations,existing techniques resort to a Monte Carlo sampling approach, which is expensive and difficult to integrate into visualization tools. To address these limitations, we present a closed-form framework to efficiently derive uncertainty in marching cubes level-sets for Gaussian uncertain data with spatial correlation (MAGIC). To derive closed-form solutions, we leverage the Hinkley's derivation on the ratio of Gaussian distributions. With our analytical framework, we achieve a significant speed-up and enhanced accuracy of uncertainty quantification over classical Monte Carlo methods. We further accelerate our analytical solutions using many-core processors to achieve speed-ups up to 585× and integrability with production visualization tools for broader impact. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our correlation-aware uncertainty framework through experiments on meteorology, urban flow, and astrophysics simulation datasets.

Gaussian↗