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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions

his report details the findings from the research and investigation of Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions. We explored the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) models’ predictions using geometric measures to quantify the similarity of a query point with the training data. Predictive uncertainty in ML can originate from at least three sources: (1) Model uncertainty, which represents the uncertainty in model form (e.g. decision tree, vs neural network) and estimating the model parameters from the training data, (2) Data uncertainty, which represents the natural complexities of the data such as class overlap and inherent noise, and (3) Distributional uncertainty, which represents the mismatch between the training and operational distributions. The proposed measures focus on measuring and explaining the data and distributional uncertainties by measuring the relationships of operational data with the training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires during extreme weather. In wildfire-prone areas, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on wildfire-related uncertainties affecting line failure likelihood. Here, in this case, endogenous-based uncertainty modeling should comprise the backbone of the investment planning model viz-a-viz the inability of standard exogenous-based uncertainty modeling. Therefore, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology to optimize investment portfolios for distribution systems, considering that high power-flow levels in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and increase line failure probability. The methodology identifies the best combination of upgrades (new lines, hardening existing lines, and placing switching devices). Methodologically, we propose a two-stage distributionally robust planning optimization problem with DDU that considers the distribution system's multiperiod operation. The first stage determines optimal switching actions and line investments, and the second stage evaluates the worst-case expected operational cost under a DDU framework designed to account for the endogenous impact of power-flow levels and hardening investment decisions in the line failure probabilities. An iterative method is tailored to handle the problem and numerical experiments demonstrate a more prepared grid to deal with wildfire risk.

Power systems investment planning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations

With the increased prevalence of neural operators being used to provide rapid solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs), understanding the accuracy of model predictions and the associated error levels is necessary for deploying reliable surrogate models in scientific applications. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) frameworks employ ensembles or Bayesian methods, which can incur substantial computational costs during both training and inference. Here, we propose a lightweight predictive UQ method tailored for Deep operator networks (DeepONets) that also generalizes to other operator networks. Numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear PDEs demonstrate that the framework’s uncertainty estimates are unbiased and provide accurate out-of-distribution uncertainty predictions with a sufficiently large training dataset. Our framework provides fast inference and uncertainty estimates that can efficiently drive outer-loop analyses that would be prohibitively expensive with conventional solvers. We demonstrate how predictive uncertainties can be used in the context of Bayesian optimization and active learning problems to yield improvements in accuracy and data-efficiency for outer-loop optimization procedures. In the active learning setup, we extend the framework to Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) and describe a generalized method for other operator networks. To enable real-time deployment, we introduce an inference strategy based on precomputed trunk outputs and a sparse placement matrix, reducing evaluation time by more than a factor of five. Our method provides a practical route to uncertainty-aware operator learning in time-sensitive settings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

An entropy-based debiasing approach to quantifying experimental coverage for novel applications of interest in the nuclear community

This manuscript proposes a novel information-theoretic approach to the quantification of experimental relevance, i.e., coverage, to achieve optimal data assimilation results for nuclear engineering applications. Specifically, this work posits the need for a new metric, called coverage (q C ) of an application’s quantity of interest, i.e., eigenvalue or power peaking for an advanced reactor concept, defined herein as the theoretically maximum achievable reduction in the quantity’s uncertainty given measurements from a pool of experiments in a manner that is independent of the data assimilation procedure employed. Currently, reduction in a quantity’s uncertainty is strongly biased by the underlying assumptions of the assimilation procedure to account for the under-determined nature of such problems and the similarity criterion employed to identify relevant experiments. To address this challenge, this work has developed a coverage metric, q C , based on mutual information, which establishes a new conceptual framework for assessing coverage, one that is independent of the model parameters and responses degree of variations in both the experimental and application domains, i.e., linear vs non-linear, and their prior uncertainty distributions, i.e., Gaussian vs. non-Gaussian. The q C is an entropic measure capable of addressing coverage for general nonlinear problems with non-Gaussian uncertainties and inclusive of the measurement uncertainties from multiple experiments. Numerical experiments from manufactured analytical problems as well as a set of benchmarks from the ICSBEP handbook are employed to demonstrate its theoretical and practical performance as compared to the c k -based experiment selection methodology, commonly employed in the neutronic community. The manuscript then employs other well-known adaptations to existing data assimilation methodologies for nonlinear and non-Gaussian problems capable of achieving the coverage posited by q C .

Bayesian data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward equitable environmental exposure modeling through convergence of data, open, and citizen sciences: an example of air pollution exposure modeling amidst increasing wildfire smoke

Exposure modeling is critical in environmental epidemiology and human health but may face challenges (e.g., skewed data, unequal error, context-insensitive validation, and computational demands). Modeling decisions reflect the intended use of the models and the values that modelers prioritize. We aimed to provide a conceptual framework and machine learning (ML) modeling protocols that address these issues. With 500m-gridded hourly PM 2.5 and O 3 levels in Illinois before, during, and after the 2023 Canadian wildfire season as a motivating example, we conducted modeling experiments to evaluate modeling methods, guided by three domains we propose based on theories of science: 1) Data Diversity, leveraging open and citizen science data to enhance inclusivity, parsimony, and representativeness; 2) Equitable Accuracy, ensuring fairly distributed uncertainties across subpopulations; and 3) Sustainable Modeling, balancing accuracy with reducing computational demands to promote accessibility for under-resourced researchers. Here, we found that ML with publicly available data can achieve high accuracy. Depending on methods, performance may vary substantially, even with identical input data. Large but skewed data may reduce performance. Misuse of cross-validation protocols can underestimate prediction error; although we observed R 2 s of ∼98 %, the modeled estimates varied significantly, indicating the need for careful model validation. By using new modeling protocols including representativeness-considered training and validation data and a new loss function, we achieved high agreement between estimates and ground-based measurements (e.g., R 2 = ∼90 % for PM 2.5 ; ∼80 % for O 3 ), equally distributed errors across sociodemographic strata and urban–rural divides, and reduction in computation time—from several weeks or months to a few days.

Exposure assessment↗

DOE OSTI2024

Calibrating Bayesian generative machine learning for Bayesiamplification

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian deep learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated distribution originating from limited training statistics. The interpretation of a distribution-wide uncertainty however remains ill-defined. We show a clear scheme for quantifying the calibration of Bayesian generative machine learning models. For a Continuous Normalizing Flow applied to a low-dimensional toy example, we evaluate the calibration of Bayesian uncertainties from either a mean-field Gaussian weight posterior, or Monte Carlo sampling network weights, to gauge their behaviour on unsteady distribution edges. Well calibrated uncertainties can then be used to roughly estimate the number of uncorrelated truth samples that are equivalent to the generated sample and clearly indicate data amplification for smooth features of the distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Netload Range Cost Curves for Coordinated Transmission-Distribution Planning Under DER Growth Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires better coordination between transmission and distribution (T&D) planning to ensure system security and cost efficiency. However, misaligned planning horizons, computational burdens, and privacy concerns hinder effective coordination, leading to either underutilized resources caused by overinvestments or reliability risks due to underinvestment. To address this challenge, we introduce netload range cost curves (NRCCs), a novel approach for managing long-term DER growth uncertainty through T&D coordination, while preserving existing data-sharing and regulatory structures. NRCCs provide pairs of (i) peak substation netload guarantees and (ii) corresponding distribution upgrade options and costs, enabling their seamless integration into transmission planning workflows. To compute NRCCs efficiently, we develop a transmission-aware distribution network planning (TADNP), which is subsequently integrated to an iterative computation procedure. These NRCCs are then embedded into an NRCC-informed transmission planning model to enable resource-efficient coordination. We illustrate our proposed approach with a case study based on realistic distribution and transmission systems in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Our results indicate the possibility of dramatic savings in transmission investments by incorporating the proposed NRCC-integrated T&D coordination framework.

Li, Yujia↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Probabilistic Visualization of Local Divergence of 2D Vector Fields with Independent Gaussian Uncertainty

This work focuses on visualizing uncertainty of local divergence of two-dimensional vector fields. Divergence is one of the fundamental attributes of fluid flows, as it can help domain scientists analyze potential positions of sources (positive divergence) and sinks (negative divergence) in the flow. However, uncertainty inherent in vector field data can lead to erroneous divergence computations, adversely impacting downstream analysis. While Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a classical approach for estimating divergence uncertainty, it suffers from slow convergence and poor scalability with increasing data size and sample counts. Thus, we present a two-fold contribution that tackles the challenges of slow convergence and limited scalability of the MC approach. (1) We derive a closed-form approach for highly efficient and accurate uncertainty visualization of local divergence, assuming independently Gaussian-distributed vector uncertainties. (2) We further integrate our approach into Viskores, a platform-portable parallel library, to accelerate uncertainty visualization. In our results, we demonstrate significantly enhanced efficiency and accuracy of our serial analytical (speed-up up to 1946×) and parallel Viskores (speed-up up to 19698×) algorithms over the classical serial MC approach. We also demonstrate qualitative improvements of our probabilistic divergence visualizations over traditional mean-field visualization, which disregards uncertainty. We validate the accuracy and efficiency of our methods on wind forecast and ocean simulation datasets.

Ouermi, Timbwaoga [University of Utah]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Matter Velocity Distributions for Direct Detection: Astrophysical Uncertainties Are Smaller Than They Appear

The sensitivity of direct detection experiments depends on the phase-space distribution of dark matter near the Sun, which can be modeled theoretically using cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way–like galaxies. However, capturing the halo-to-halo variation in the local dark matter speeds—a necessary step for quantifying the astrophysical uncertainties that feed into experimental results—requires a sufficiently large sample of simulated galaxies, which has been a challenge. In this Letter, we quantify this variation with nearly 100 Milky Way–like galaxies from the tng50 simulation, the largest sample to date at this resolution. Moreover, we introduce a novel phase-space scaling procedure that endows every system with a reference frame that accurately reproduces the local standard-of-rest speed of our Galaxy, providing a principled way of extrapolating the simulation results to real-world data. The ensemble of predicted speed distributions is well characterized by the standard halo model, a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution truncated at the escape speed, though the individual distributions can deviate from it, especially at high speeds. The dark matter–nucleon cross section limits placed by these speed distributions vary by ∼ 60% about the median. This places the 1⁢𝜎 astrophysical uncertainty at or below the level of the systematic uncertainty of current ton-scale detectors, even down to the energy threshold. The predicted uncertainty remains unchanged when subselecting on those TNG 50 galaxies with merger histories similar to the Milky Way. Tabulated speed distributions, as well as Maxwell-Boltzmann fits, are provided for use in computing direct detection bounds or projecting sensitivities.

Milky Way↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the Weak Lensing Source Galaxies

Determining the distribution of redshifts for galaxies in wide-field photometric surveys is essential for robust cosmological studies of weak gravitational lensing. We present the methodology, calibrated redshift distributions, and uncertainties of the final Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (Y6) weak lensing galaxy data, divided into four redshift bins centered at $\langle z \rangle = [0.414, 0.538, 0.846, 1.157]$. We combine independent information from two methods on the full shape of redshift distributions: optical and near-infrared photometry within an improved Self-Organizing Map $p(z)$ (SOMPZ) framework, and cross-correlations with spectroscopic galaxy clustering measurements (WZ), which we demonstrate to be consistent both in terms of the redshift calibration itself and in terms of resulting cosmological constraints within 0.1$σ$. We describe the process used to produce an ensemble of redshift distributions that account for several known sources of uncertainty. Among these, imperfection in the calibration sample due to the lack of faint, representative spectra is the dominant factor. The final uncertainty on mean redshift in each bin is $σ_{\langle z\rangle} = [0.012, 0.008,0.009, 0.024]$. We ensure the robustness of the redshift distributions by leveraging new image simulations and a cross-check with galaxy shape information via the shear ratio (SR) method.

Yin, B. [Duke U.] (ORCID:0009000656049980)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning with Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning With Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗