A Dynamic State Estimation Application for Stability and Uncertainty Mitigation in Smart Grids
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Paramo, Giancarlo↗
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Characterizing Interaction Uncertainty in Human-Machine Teams
With the increasing use and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), the reliability of modern data systems will be driven by a tighter teaming between human experts and intelligent machine teammates. As in the case of human-human teams, the success of human-machine teams will also rely on clear communication about mutual goals and actions. In this paper, we combine related literature from cognitive psychology, human-machine teaming, uncertainty in data analysis, and multi-agent systems to propose a new form of uncertainty: interaction uncertainty for characterizing bidirectional communication in human-machine teams. We map the causes and effects of interaction uncertainty and outline potential ways to mitigate uncertainty for mutual trust in a high-consequence real-world scenario.
uncertainty, data analytics, interaction, trust, h↗
Surrogate-driven Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Storage Tanks in Integrated Energy Systems
Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification are essential steps for enhancing the accuracy of computational models by identifying and mitigating uncertainties. This study focuses on these steps for the Thermal Energy Delivery System at Idaho National Laboratory, specifically targeting the thermocline tank. Using a Modelica/Dymola simulation model, the study perturbed various design parameters and boundary conditions, including shape factor, porosity, outlet temperature, inlet mass flow rate, and system pressure, to predict and quantify uncertainty in the tank’s ax- ial temperature. A dataset of over 1,000 simulations was generated, and surrogate models were developed using the pyMAISE (Michigan Artificial Intelligence Standard Environment) library, which is an Automatic Machine Learning library for nuclear engineering applications. The optimal model, a feedforward neural network with two hidden layers, achieved an R2 score above 0.99 and a mean absolute error below 1 Kelvin. Sensitivity analyses using Sobol indices and Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing methods on this surrogate model revealed that the inlet mass flow rate at initial timestamps and porosity significantly impacts predicted temperatures across all sensors and time steps.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Neutrino-nucleus cross section impacts on neutrino oscillation measurements
The challenges in neutrino-nucleus cross section modeling and its impact on neutrino oscillation experiments are widely recognized. However, a comprehensive and theoretically robust estimation of cross section uncertainties has been lacking, and few studies have quantitatively examined their impact on oscillation measurements. In this work, we evaluate the effect of cross section uncertainties on oscillation parameters using setups inspired by NOvA and DUNE. To characterize these uncertainties, we adopt multiple neutrino-nucleus event generators and simulate a realistic experimental procedure that incorporates near-detector data and near-to-far-detector extrapolation. Our results confirm that cross section uncertainties cannot significantly bias oscillation results in current statistics-dominated experiments like NOvA. However, they could lead to substantial bias for future systematics-dominated experiments like DUNE, even when near-detector data are employed to mitigate uncertainties. These findings underscore the need for further studies on the quantitative impacts of cross section modeling, improved strategies to utilize near-detector data and the PRISM concept, and more robust cross section models to optimize the success of future experiments.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into CCS infrastructure design. This workflow generates multiple infrastructure scenarios by sampling storage capacity distributions, optimally solving each scenario using a mixed-integer linear programming model, and aggregating results into a heatmap to identify core infrastructure components that have a low likelihood of underperforming. A risk index parameter is introduced to balance trade-offs between cost, CO2 processing capacity, and risk of underperformance, allowing stakeholders to quantify and mitigate uncertainty in CCS planning. Applying this workflow to a CCS dataset from the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership project reveals key insights into infrastructure resilience. Reducing the risk index from 15% to 0% is observed to lead to an 83.7% reduction in CO2 processing capacity and a 77.1% decrease in project profit, quantifying the trade-off between risk tolerance and project performance. Furthermore, our results highlight critical breakpoints, where small adjustments in the risk index produce disproportionate shifts in infrastructure performance, providing actionable guidance for decision-makers. Unlike prior approaches that aimed to cheaply repair underperforming infrastructure, our workflow constructs robust CCS networks from the ground up, ensuring cost-effective infrastructure under storage uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the practical relevance of incorporating uncertainty-aware optimization into CCS planning, equipping decision-makers with a tool to make informed project planning decisions.
Olson, Daniel↗
Assessment of MiniFuel Subcapsule Design Recommendations on Previous Experiments
MiniFuel describes the class of separate effects nuclear fuels irradiation experiments that have been conducted in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) since 2018. These experiments comprise a stack of six fuel-bearing subcapsules contained in a stainless steel target housing that is in contact with HFIR coolant on its exterior. All MiniFuel targets have a near-standardized architecture, and the primary design variables that change between experiments are the radial gap size between the subcapsule and housing and the target fill gas composition. Finite element heat transfer models are used to determine the optimum gas composition and gap sizes, and recent studies were performed to identify model parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to fuel specimen temperature predictions. That work, which is referenced herein, also recommended a set of design modifications to the subcapsule internal architecture and assembly process. These modifications are intended to reduce fuel temperature uncertainty in future experiments. In this report, the subcapsule design modifications were retroactively applied to a previously conducted MiniFuel experiment to determine how these changes affect the established safety and performance envelope of the experimental capability. These effects were determined in two steps. First, the modifications were applied to the subcapsule design without any other changes to determine their isolated effect on the predicted fuel specimen temperatures. This portion of the analysis showed that fuel temperatures were modestly reduced because the implemented changes improved heat transfer efficacy. Next, traditional MiniFuel design activities (i.e., sizing the gas gaps and determining the fill gas composition) were reperformed, and they confirmed that the original desired fuel temperatures could be achieved while remaining within established safety limits. Therefore, this report demonstrates improved performance resulting from the subcapsule modifications, which mitigate uncertainty while meeting the objectives of past experiments. An additional benefit of the design changes is reduced sensitivity of the fuel temperature to the evolving flux spectrum in HFIR, leading to more stable temperatures and enhanced utility of MiniFuel as a separate effects irradiation platform.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Resimulation-based self-supervised learning for pretraining physics foundation models
Self-supervised learning (SSL) is at the core of training modern large machine learning models, providing a scheme for learning powerful representations that can be used in a variety of downstream tasks. However, SSL strategies must be adapted to the type of training data and downstream tasks required. We propose resimulation-based self-supervised representation learning (RS3L), a novel simulation-based SSL strategy that employs a method of resimulation to drive data augmentation for contrastive learning in the physical sciences, particularly, in fields that rely on stochastic simulators. By intervening in the middle of the simulation process and rerunning simulation components downstream of the intervention, we generate multiple realizations of an event, thus producing a set of augmentations covering all physics-driven variations available in the simulator. Using experiments from high-energy physics, we explore how this strategy may enable the development of a foundation model; we show how RS3L pretraining enables powerful performance in downstream tasks such as discrimination of a variety of objects and uncertainty mitigation. In addition to our results, we make the RS3L dataset publicly available for further studies on how to improve SSL strategies.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation
Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
An assessment of China’s methane mitigation potential and costs and uncertainties through 2060
Abstract China, the world’s largest methane emitter, is increasingly focused on methane mitigation in support of its climate goals, but gaps exist in the understanding of key methane sources, as well as mitigation opportunities and their associated uncertainties. We use a bottom-up modeling approach with updated methane emission projections and abatement cost analysis to account for additional sources, uncertainties, and mitigation measures in China’s energy and agricultural sectors. Here we show the significant cost-effective potential for reducing methane emissions in China by 2030, with 660 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent possible with average negative abatement costs of US$6.40 per tonne CO 2 e. Most of this potential exists in the energy sector, particularly coal mining, but the greater potential will shift towards agriculture by 2060. Aquaculture and biochar applications in rice cultivation have net economic benefits but need greater support for deployment, while new mitigation measures will be needed for remaining emissions from enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, and wastewater.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation
Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Exploiting 20 Ne Isotopes for Precision Characterizations of Collectivity in Small Systems
Whether or not femto-scale droplets of quark-gluon plasma (QGP) are formed in so-called small systems at high-energy colliders is a pressing question in the phenomenology of the strong interaction. For proton-proton or proton-nucleus collisions the answer is inconclusive due to the large theoretical uncertainties plaguing the description of these processes. While upcoming data on collisions of 16 O nuclei may mitigate these uncertainties in the near future, here we demonstrate the unique possibilities offered by complementing 16 O + 16 O data with collisions of 20 Ne ions. We couple both nuclear lattice effective field theory (NLEFT) and projected generator coordinate method (PGCM) ab initio descriptions of the structure of 20 Ne and 16 O to hydrodynamic simulations of 16 O + 16 O and 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions at high energy. We isolate the imprints of the bowling-pin shape of 20 Ne on the collective flow of hadrons, which can be used to perform quantitative tests of the hydrodynamic QGP paradigm. In particular, we predict that the elliptic flow of 20 Ne + 20 Ne collisions is enhanced by as much as 1.174(8) stat (31) syst for NLEFT and 1.139(6) stat (39) syst for PGCM relative to 16 O + 16 O collisions for the 1% most central events. At the same time, theoretical uncertainties largely cancel when studying relative variations of observables between two systems. This demonstrates a method based on experiments with two light-ion species for precision characterizations of the collective dynamics and its emergence in a small system.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 pt samples
This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.
Cosmological parameters↗
Could SBND-PRISM probe lepton flavor violation?
We investigate the possibility of using the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) at Fermilab to constrain lepton flavor violating decays of pions and kaons. We study how to leverage SBND-PRISM, the use of the neutrino beam angular spread to mitigate systematic uncertainties, to enhance this analysis. We show that SBND-PRISM can put stringent limits on the flavor violating branching ratios BR ( π + → μ + ν e ) = 8.9 × 10 − 4 , BR ( K + → μ + ν e ) = 3.2 × 10 − 3 , improving previous constraints by factors 9 and 1.25, respectively. We also estimate the SBND-PRISM sensitivity to lepton number violating decays, BR ( π + → μ + ν ¯ e ) = 2.1 × 10 − 3 and BR ( K + → μ + ν ¯ e ) = 7.4 × 10 − 3 , though not reaching previous Big European Bubble Chamber limits. Last, we identify several ways how the SBND collaboration could improve this analysis. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NOvA in 10 Minutes
NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment based at Fermilab, IL, USA, that observes $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_\mu\ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu) \to \nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance oscillations from a beam of muon neutrinos (anti-neutrinos) provided by the Fermilab's NuMI beamline. The experiment consists of two functionally identical active liquid scintillattor tracking calorimeters, both situated 14.6 mrad off-axis to the beam direction. The detectors are made out of extruded PVC cells arranged in alternating horizontal and vertical planes for 3-dimensional reconstruction of neutrino events. The NOvA experiment has a wide-ranging scientific program that includes studying standard 3-flavor neutrino oscillations, resolution of neutrino mass orderings, measuring the CP-violating phase, $\delta_{CP}$, beyond standard model (BSM) phenomenon such as non-standard interactions (NSI) and sterile neutrino searches, neutrino-nucleus cross-section measurements, exotics, astrophysics and more. The NOvA experiment leverages its identical detector technology to mitigate systematic uncertainties for its neutrino oscillation analysis. This talk will provide an overview of the experiment's detector design and the data-driven techniques used by the experiment in its neutrino oscillation analysis.
Choudhary, Brajesh [Delhi U.]↗
Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements
Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Constraining Systematics at SBND to Reduce Uncertainties in SBN Oscillation Analyses
The Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND) is a crucial component of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program, situated 110 meters from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) target. This 112-ton Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) Near Detector is optimally positioned to investigate the potential existence of an additional flavor of neutrino through neutrino oscillation. Due to its proximity to the BNB target, SBND is uniquely positioned to receive a high rate of un-oscillated neutrino events. This setup offers a valuable opportunity to examine exclusive channels, thereby enhancing our understanding of various neutrino interaction modes, aiding in the understanding and mitigation of various sources of uncertainties. By fully utilizing the detector's capabilities, we aim to mitigate significant uncertainties in neutrino oscillation studies, primarily those related to neutrino interactions and flux. Achieving a deeper understanding of these uncertainties and controlling them with near detector data is essential. In this poster I will present an SBND event selection to control these uncertainties for the SBN oscillation analyses.
Yadav, Shweta [Texas U., Arlington]↗
Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods
Fermilab Booster is being upgraded for the PIP-II project to support 20Hz ramp rate at higher intensities. Loss trip limits determine the achievable peak power. To meet PIP-II requirements, losses need to be halved as compared to current levels. Losses primarily occur at injection and transition crossing, with both gradually increasing and threshold-like intensity-dependent behaviors. The existing simulation models are not yet good enough for quantitative loss predictions. In practice, it will be necessary to tune up the Booster using iterative methods and operator intuition. In this paper we present an effort to systematically model Booster losses using active learning (Bayesian exploration) techniques, and subsequently to rebalance them for higher trip limit margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. This is a complex task due to safety and timing requirements – we discuss mitigations such as uncertainty constraints and approximate fitting. Once models are stable, we perform large-scale single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives made up of critical beam loss locations. Our results demonstrate significant rebalancing of losses, increasing trip margins, as well as an overall improvement in beam transmission efficiency. We are exploring how to combine existing simulations with experimental data and automate the collection procedure so that more advanced surrogate models can be created over time.
Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
Probabilistic flux limiters
The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗