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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Reduction With Multi-Model Monte Carlo for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Additively Manufactured Metals

In this work, multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed to reduce uncertainty in quantities of interest (QoIs) extracted from crystal plasticity simulations of additively manufactured (AM) metals. A significant concern in AM parts is uncertainty in mechanical properties caused in part by complex microstructures that arise from the AM process. Quantifying uncertainty in microstructure-sensitive behavior using experiments alone is costly, especially when mechanical allowables must be established. Quantitative relationships among microstructure, micromechanical metrics like slip accumulation, crack initiation, and failure are also difficult to capture with limited experiments. Crystal plasticity material models instead enable computational prediction of micromechanical stress and strain fields given a discretized microstructure. However, high-fidelity finely discretized crystal plasticity simulations are computationally expensive, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate and generally biased, making uncertainty quantification and reduction computationally difficult as well. Multi-model Monte Carlo methods leverage correlations between high- and low-fidelity models to produce unbiased estimators for QoIs with reduced uncertainty relative to standard Monte Carlo. Crystal plasticity QoIs considered in this work include yield strength and the mean and extreme values of micromechanical fields that are relevant to crack initiation. Multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed for each individual QoI and several groups of QoIs. The results of this work establish relationships among model correlations, sample allocation, and uncertainty reduction for different combinations of QoIs and demonstrate a trend of less uncertainty reduction as QoIs become more sensitive to local microstructure. Limitations from using pilot samples to estimate model covariances and train low-fidelity models are also addressed. The uncertainty reduction achieved by multi-model Monte Carlo is an important step toward using computational mechanics models to predict microstructure-sensitive crack initiation and failure in AM parts.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

Uncertainty↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Results of the NASA Prediction Uncertainty Reduction Tech Challenge

In January 2021 the Advanced Air Vehicles Program approved a new Tech Challenge (TC) to be run out of the Commercial Supersonic Technology (CST) Project. The objective of the TC was to bring uncertainties in the empirical noise modeling for civilian supersonic aircraft into the same range as that of conventional aircraft. The TC goal statement was to “Produce data and demonstrate tools that reduce the uncertainty in predicting Landing & Takeoff Noise levels of supersonic-relevant designs by 5 EPNdB and are ready for use in studies to inform FAA rule-making.” To make the required improvements in noise prediction methods for supersonic aircraft, NASA decided to validate and use high-fidelity numerical simulations to acquire the needed noise data on supersonic propulsion configurations. High-fidelity component designs were developed, such as a two-stage propulsor behind a supersonic inlet designed by General Electric Aviation and variable area exhaust systems using input from recent contracts with GE and Rolls Royce. A noise database was generated as a function of geometric and flow parameters, providing corrections to the empirical noise models and added new input variables to describe the complexities created by the supersonic-specific design features. Statistically, the new models were able to predict the acoustic impact of supersonic-specific features, the reduction in uncertainty being reduced from the baseline 7.8 EPNdB at the beginning of the TC to 2.0 EPNdB at the end.

noise prediction↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Update on Prediction Uncertainty Reduction (PUR) Tech Challenge

NASA has taken on a Technical Challenge to reduce the uncertainty in prediction of noise from near-term commercial supersonic aircraft. To date, an assessment has been done to baseline this effort, quantifying how much more uncertainty exists when the system-level prediction methods are applied to supersonic aircraft as compared to conventional aircraft. And an assessment has been made for the uncertainty in the physics-based simulations for jets. These will be briefly demonstrated.

supersonic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Status of the Measurement of Proton Scattering on Carbon Nuclei in EMPHATIC for Neutrino Flux Uncertainty Reduction

In long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations based on hadron interactions and decays are used to predict the neutrino flux. The 10%-level systematic uncertainty of the predicted neutrino fluxes from these simulations is dominated by uncertainties in hadron interaction cross sections due to limited hadron scattering data. EMPHATIC aims to reduce the neutrino flux uncertainty by providing additional data. Using a table-top-sized spectrometer located at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility (FTBF), its physics program includes precise measurements of hadron scattering and production cross sections at various beam momenta and target species that are relevant for GeV-scale neutrino production. Using simulation, we have developed a simple single-track reconstruction algorithm that has a momentum resolution of 3-4\%. We will demonstrate the progress in developing one of EMPHATIC’s first track reconstruction algorithms – an important step in making a new single-track forward scattering measurement (p + C $\rightarrow$ p + C at several beam momenta) using Phase 1 data collected between 2022 and 2023.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Acoustic Liner Drag: Measurement Uncertainty Reduction and Application to Novel Perforate Geometries

In addition to developing acoustic liner concepts and characterizing their performance, the NASA Langley Liner Physics Team has investigated issues related to liner drag. A method to quantify relative drag of liner configurations was developed and employed to understand the effects of various liner features. It was observed that perforate shape could have a marked effect on the measured liner drag and led to the discovery of a low-drag geometry that cut the drag penalty between a perforate and a smooth wall by approximately 50%. Investigations of novel perforates to further reduce drag were stymied by measurement uncertainty that prevented further resolution of drag differences between configurations. The current study details efforts to understand the causes of this uncertainty and describe changes made to testing methods to reduce it. Previously evaluated perforates were retested with these improvements in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube to determine their relative drag at a flow speed of Mach 0.5 without acoustic excitation. Their performance was compared to the previously identified low-drag geometry to see if further drag reductions could be realized.

drag↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Acoustic Liner Drag: Measurement Uncertainty Reduction and Application to Novel Perforate Geometries

In addition to developing acoustic liner concepts and characterizing their performance, the NASA Langley Liner Physics Team has investigated issues related to liner drag. A method to quantify relative drag of liner configurations was developed and employed to understand the effects of various liner features. It was observed that perforate shape could have a marked effect on the measured liner drag and led to the discovery of a low-drag geometry that cut the drag penalty between a perforate and a smooth wall by approximately 50%. Investigations of novel perforates to further reduce drag were stymied by measurement uncertainty that prevented further resolution of drag differences between configurations. The current study details efforts to understand the causes of this uncertainty and describe changes made to testing methods to reduce it. Previously evaluated perforates were retested with these improvements in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube to determine their relative drag at a flow speed of Mach 0.5 without acoustic excitation. Their performance was compared to the previously identified low-drag geometry to see if further drag reductions could be realized.

drag↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty reduction in residual stress measurements by an optimised inverse solution using nonconsecutive polynomials

Many destructive methods for measuring residual stresses such as the slitting method require an inverse analysis to solve the problem. The accuracy of the result as well as an uncertainty component (the model uncertainty) depends on the basis functions used in the inverse solution. The use of a series expansion as the basis functions for the inverse solution was analysed in a previous work for the particular case where functions orders grew consecutively. The present work presents a new estimation of the model uncertainty and a new improved methodology to select the final basis functions for the case where the basis is composed of polynomials. Including nonconsecutive polynomial orders in the basis generates a larger space of possible solutions to be evaluated and allows the possibility to include higher-order polynomials. The paper includes a comparison with two other inverse analyses methodologies applied to synthetically generated data. With the new methodology, the final error is reduced and the uncertainty estimation improved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reduction of Aircraft Noise Uncertainty for a Notional Supersonic Business Jet

NASA supported a study by the International Civil Aviation Organization on the environmental impact of adding supersonic aircraft to the existing global fleet by designing a notional 55-tonne supersonic business jet. The aircraft is referred to as the Supersonic Technology Concept Aeroplane (STCA) and has been used in a multitude of studies over the past few years. One of the many studies on this aircraft was the noise produced by the STCA during landing and take-off (LTO) operations. The LTO noise for the STCA was assessed using contemporary noise prediction tools that have been primarily developed for and utilized by subsonic aircraft, resulting in a high level of uncertainty for the STCA noise predictions. NASA has recently been conducting research and developing tools to reduce the uncertainty for airport noise predictions of supersonic aircraft. The initial focus of the uncertainty reduction was on the jet and inlet-radiated fan noise produced by supersonic engine systems since these sources are dominant during take-off and landing operations for supersonic jets. The results of these efforts are discussed and applied to the STCA model to update the airport noise predictions and associated uncertainty metrics. It is shown that by using new noise source prediction models, the overall system-level cumulative noise uncertainty of the study vehicle is reduced from a standard deviation of 7.8 EPNdB to 2.0 EPNdB.

uncertainty↗