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Results for “uncertainty relation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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177 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Robust optimization of flexible diafiltration systems for critical mineral separations

This paper provides major contributions in expanding the literature for membrane process design with critical mineral recovery applications and showcasing the importance of robust design techniques for reducing risks of underperformance in such systems. Here, a membrane process flowsheet featuring PrOMMiS membrane models for recovering lithium/cobalt from spent batteries is showcased, uncertainty in membrane sieving and localized fouling are considered, and robust designs are obtained using the PyROS toolset. This paper is intended for a general audience of researchers working in critical minerals, membranes, and optimization related areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized geometric speed limits for quantum observables

Leveraging quantum information geometry, we derive generalized quantum speed limits on the rate of change of the expectation values of observables. These bounds subsume and, for Hilbert space dimension ≥3, tighten existing bounds—in some cases by an arbitrarily large multiplicative constant. Our theoretical results are supported by illustrative examples and an experimental demonstration using a superconducting qutrit. We also derive two upper bounds on the generalized quantum Fisher information in terms of the condition number of the density matrix. One of these bounds applies only to coherent dynamics and depends also on the variance of the Hamiltonian. The other bound depends also on the so-called Wigner-Yanase skew information. These bounds generalize well-known bounds on the symmetric logarithmic derivative quantum Fisher information and are tighter than the existing bounds for sufficiently mixed states (e.g., for sufficiently high temperature thermal states).

open quantum systems & decoherence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Netload Range Cost Curves for Coordinated Transmission-Distribution Planning Under DER Growth Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires better coordination between transmission and distribution (T&D) planning to ensure system security and cost efficiency. However, misaligned planning horizons, computational burdens, and privacy concerns hinder effective coordination, leading to either underutilized resources caused by overinvestments or reliability risks due to underinvestment. To address this challenge, we introduce netload range cost curves (NRCCs), a novel approach for managing long-term DER growth uncertainty through T&D coordination, while preserving existing data-sharing and regulatory structures. NRCCs provide pairs of (i) peak substation netload guarantees and (ii) corresponding distribution upgrade options and costs, enabling their seamless integration into transmission planning workflows. To compute NRCCs efficiently, we develop a transmission-aware distribution network planning (TADNP), which is subsequently integrated to an iterative computation procedure. These NRCCs are then embedded into an NRCC-informed transmission planning model to enable resource-efficient coordination. We illustrate our proposed approach with a case study based on realistic distribution and transmission systems in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Our results indicate the possibility of dramatic savings in transmission investments by incorporating the proposed NRCC-integrated T&D coordination framework.

Li, Yujia↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients: Impact of Particle Deposition in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Inhaled radioactive materials can pose a long-term health concern, as the material can be incorporated into the body’s metabolic pathways and remain in organs and tissues for extended durations. During the retention period, the radioactive material may localize in a source organ and irradiate adjacent target organs and tissues. Distribution of these materials changes over time, requiring biokinetic modeling to evaluate their movement through various tissues and organs. The evolving distribution depends on multiple inputs characterizing the inhaled material, such as particle size and size distribution, particle density, aspect ratio, specific radionuclide, the chemical form, and solubility. In addition, biological parameters such as breathing rate, breathing type (nasal or nasal/oral), respiratory system morphometry, tidal volume, functional residual capacity, and anatomical dead space all influence material transport. These aerosol properties and physiological characteristics of the respiratory tract jointly define a range of initial conditions that influence the time-dependent distribution of radioactive material. To evaluate both uncertainty in the initial conditions of inhalation exposure and the final output (committed effective dose) from biokinetic models, a Python-based software tool, Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL), was developed to propagate uncertainty within the human respiratory tract model. Focusing on deposition fraction uncertainty, the primary objective was to characterize the initial activity distribution across respiratory regions as a function of anticipated particle sizes and distributions. The impact of the deposition fraction uncertainty was propagated to committed effective dose coefficients for selected radionuclides in a companion publication. For each particle size, a lognormal distribution, characterized by its geometric mean as defined within ICRP Publication 66, serves as the basis for introducing uncertainty into the physical processes governing deposition in various lung regions. Finally, this study addresses the deposition process and examines how uncertainty in deposition mechanisms affects activity distribution in the airways, ultimately presenting the expected range and standard deviation of deposited activity as a function of particle size.

International Commission on Radiological Protectio↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reducing experimental uncertainty in the calculation of cavity swelling in a transmission electron microscope through crystallographically aided void volume tracking

Accurate measurement of cavity swelling in a transmission electron microscope is essential to define material performance under irradiation, and the conventionally applied spherical assumption for the calculation of cavity volumes in irradiated materials can result in errors ranging between a 25% underestimation and 72% overestimation of volume purely based on the assumption of shape. This assumption is undeniably expedient for calculation but does not sufficiently account for the 3D nature of polyhedral cavities and their shape projection in the transmission electron microscope, and therefore presents too large of an associated uncertainty in swelling determination for faceted cavities. This uncertainty has been defined for many common cavity shapes in FCC and BCC crystal systems, and has been tabulated across the cubic fundamental region. A revised methodology for crystallographically aided void volume tracking, or CAVV-T, is presented and demonstrated on a specimen of neutron irradiated Ni. In-depth discussion on the application of this technique is provided along with resources to allow for conversion between the spherical assumption and this revised method. This work seeks to increase experimental confidence in the characterization and quantification of critical aspects of irradiation damage in materials by applying a crystallographically-resolved approach for cavity swelling calculation.

Haag IV, James V. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Boron Coordination in Multicomponent Glasses: Analytical Models and Machine Learning With Uncertainty

Borosilicate glasses are extensively used in a variety of applications from kitchenware to nuclear waste immobilization due to the strong network formed by the Si-O-B bond that makes it resistant to chemical corrosion and gives it a low thermal expansion. Boron, however, exists in both trigonal BO3 and tetrahedral BO4 bonds in glass systems, which impacts the chemical durability and thermal resistance of the glass, amongst other properties. Boron coordination (N4), or the ratio of the amount of BO4 to BO3 within a glass, may aid in predicting these properties but is difficult to derive without experimental data due to the complexity of impacts from varied glass compositions and processing factors. For this reason, compositional models have been developed to predict boron coordination, but the models typically include a limited number of glass components. To help fill this gap in the models, in this work, a diverse multicomponent glass dataset of 809 glasses is compiled from a literature search, and then a number of analytical and machine learning (ML) models are trained on the dataset. Previously developed modified Bernstein and modified Du Stebbins analytical models were fitted to update parameters with the new dataset. Then, partially Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian process regressor, and heteroskedastic deterministic neural networks were evaluated. The ML models examined all have different strategies to overcome the potential for overfitting as a result of a limited training dataset, and return results that account for model uncertainty, which can be valuable for understanding model reliability. For the first time, cooling rate is introduced as an input parameter for ML models, showing consistent improvements in performance and solidifying the importance of including parameters outside of composition alone for N4 prediction. The machine learning models examined here show promise in accurate predictions of boron coordination in borosilicate glasses, all achieving R2 values of 0.91.

boron coordination↗
DOE OSTI2026

Classical-Quantum Algorithm for Solving Stochastic Programs

Stochastic programming provides a rigorous mathematical framework for making decisions under uncertainty in a risk-aware manner. Two-stage stochastic programming is, perhaps, the simplest form of this framework. Here the first-stage variables represent decisions that must be made "here and now" in the face of uncertainty, while the second-stage variables are decisions made after uncertain events. However, the broad adoption of stochastic programming has been hindered by computational challenges caused by the two-stage stochastic programming formulation which requires solving an ensemble of optimization problems. Using quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), quantum computers have shown the theoretic ability to compute expectations with Monte-Carlo methods with quadratically fewer samples than classical methods. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for computing the expectation term using QAE for given first-stage decisions. Further, we detail methods of computing gradient information from the quantum calculation enabling the application of classical gradient-based optimization techniques. The result is a classical-quantum hybrid method of solving two-stage stochastic programs. These techniques are demonstrated with computational experiments based an engineering optimization problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

From PINNs to PIKANs: recent advances in physics-informed machine learning

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a key tool in Scientific Machine Learning since their introduction in 2017, enabling the efficient solution of ordinary and partial differential equations using sparse measurements. Over the past few years, significant advancements have been made in the training and optimization of PINNs, covering aspects such as network architectures, adaptive refinement, domain decomposition, and the use of adaptive weights and activation functions. A notable recent development is the Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (PIKANS), which leverage a representation model originally proposed by Kolmogorov in 1957, offering a promising alternative to traditional PINNs. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the latest advancements in PINNs, focusing on improvements in network design, feature expansion, optimization techniques, uncertainty quantification, and theoretical insights. We also survey key applications across a range of fields, including biomedicine, fluid and solid mechanics, geophysics, dynamical systems, heat transfer, chemical engineering, and beyond. Lastly, we review computational frameworks and software tools developed by both academia and industry to support PINN research and applications.

Kolmogorov-Arnold networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Post-Consumer Textile Waste Degradation Protocol and Related Downstream Transformations: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

Tereform, Inc. (Tereform) is developing molecular deconstruction processes to transform waste materials into chemical building blocks. During the CRADA, Tereform deconstructed real-world post-consumer substrates into chemical monomers, validated their performance on laboratory scales, demonstrated feasibility of the degradation products in downstream transformations, and successfully scaled the reaction to kilogram-scale. These results were used to develop and refine technoeconomic analysis and lifecycle assessments to evaluate the economic feasibility and environmental impacts of the process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Research and Development Related to the Commercialization of Perovskite Radiation Detectors (CRADA Final Report)

This work will focus on the development of perovskite radiation detectors fabricated with nanocrystal, thick polycrystalline films, or single crystal materials. This will harness NREL’s instrumentation and expertise in a variety of research areas including but not limited to metal halide perovskites, device characterization, device packaging, accelerated lifetime testing, and ink chemistry development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗