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DOE OSTI2025

Technical note: Recommendations for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments using cloud radiative kernels

Abstract. The cloud radiative kernel method is a popular approach to quantify cloud feedbacks and rapid cloud adjustments to increased CO2 concentrations and to partition contributions from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth. However, because this method relies on cloud property histograms derived from passive satellite sensors or produced by passive satellite simulators in models, changes in obscuration of lower-level clouds by upper-level clouds can cause apparent low-cloud feedbacks and adjustments, even in the absence of changes in lower-level cloud properties. Here, we provide a methodology for properly diagnosing the impact of changing obscuration on cloud feedbacks and adjustments and quantify these effects across climate models. Averaged globally and across global climate models, properly accounting for obscuration leads to weaker positive feedbacks from lower-level clouds and stronger positive feedbacks from upper-level clouds while simultaneously removing a mostly artificial anti-correlation between them. Given that the methodology for diagnosing cloud feedbacks and adjustments using cloud radiative kernels has evolved over several papers, and obscuration effects have only occasionally been considered in recent papers, this paper serves to establish recommended best practices and to provide a corresponding code base for community use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Distribution of tropical tropospheric water vapor

Utilizing a conceptual model for tropical convection and observational data for water vapor, the maintenance of the vertical distribution of the tropical tropospheric water vapor is discussed. While deep convection induces large-scale subsidence that constrains the turbulent downgradient mixing to within the convective boundary layer and effectively dries the troposphere through downward advection, it also pumps hydrometeors into the upper troposphere, whose subsequent evaporation appears to be the major source of moisture for the large-scale subsiding motion. The development of upper-level clouds and precipitation from these clouds may also act to dry the outflow, thus explaining the low relative humidity near the tropopause. A one-dimensional model is developed to simulate the mean vertical structure of water vapor in the tropical troposphere. It is also shown that the horizontal variation of water vapor in the tropical troposphere above the trade-wind boundary layer can be explained by the variation of a moisture source that is proportional to the amount of upper-level clouds. Implications for the nature of water vapor feedback in global warming are discussed.

Sun, De-Zheng↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cloud properties from the analysis of AVHRR observations for FIRE 2

Preliminary results are presented for cloud properties from the analysis of AVHRR observations for FIRE 2. The properties were obtained from a combination of the spatial coherence method and a multispectral retrieval scheme. Geographically gritted fields for the number of cloud layers were produced. For single layered cloud systems, fractional cloud cover, cloud emission temperature, cloud emissivity, and particle size were retrieved. Statistics on the properties of upper-level clouds and the Coffeeville cloud conditions are presented.

Lin, Xijian↗

NASA NTRS1991

Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity

Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Implementation of a state of the art automated system for the production of cloud/water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

The thrust of the proposed effort under this contract is aimed at improving techniques to track water vapor data in sequences of imagery from geostationary satellites. In regards to this task, significant testing, evaluation, and progress was accomplished during this period. Sets of winds derived from Meteosat data were routinely produced during Atlantic hurricane events in the 1993 season. These wind sets were delivered via Internet in real time to the Hurricane Research Division in Miami for their evaluation in a track forecast model. For eighteen cases in which 72-hour forecasts were produced, thirteen resulted in track forecast improvements (some quite significant). In addition, quality-controlled Meteosat water vapor winds produced by NESDIS were validated against rawinsondes, yielding an 8 m/s RMS. This figure is comparable to upper-level cloud drift wind accuracies. Given the complementary horizontal coverage in cloud-free areas, we believe that water vapor vectors can supplement cloud-drift wind information to provide good full-disk coverage of the upper tropospheric flow. The impact of these winds on numerical analysis and forecasts will be tested in the next reporting period.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Cloud/climate sensitivity experiments

A study of the relationships between large-scale cloud fields and large scale circulation patterns is presented. The basic tool is a multi-level numerical model comprising conservation equations for temperature, water vapor and cloud water and appropriate parameterizations for evaporation, condensation, precipitation and radiative feedbacks. Incorporating an equation for cloud water in a large-scale model is somewhat novel and allows the formation and advection of clouds to be treated explicitly. The model is run on a two-dimensional, vertical-horizontal grid with constant winds. It is shown that cloud cover increases with decreased eddy vertical velocity, decreased horizontal advection, decreased atmospheric temperature, increased surface temperature, and decreased precipitation efficiency. The cloud field is found to be well correlated with the relative humidity field except at the highest levels. When radiative feedbacks are incorporated and the temperature increased by increasing CO2 content, cloud amounts decrease at upper-levels or equivalently cloud top height falls. This reduces the temperature response, especially at upper levels, compared with an experiment in which cloud cover is fixed.

Roads, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

Sui, C. H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The 5-6 December 1991 FIRE IFO II jet stream cirrus case study: Possible influences of Volcanic Aerosols

In presenting an overview of the cirus clouds comprehensively studied by ground-based and airborne sensors from Coffeyville, Kansas, during the 5-6 December 1992 Project First ISCCP Region Experiment (FIRE) Intensive Fields Observation (IFO) II case study period, evidence is provided that volcanic aerosols friom the June 1991 Pinatubo eruptions may have significantly influenced the formation and maintenance of the cirrus. Following the local appearance of a spur of stratospheric volcanic debris from the subtropics, a series of jet streaks subsequently conditioned the troposphere through tropopause foldings with sulfur-based particles that became effective cloud-forming nuclei in cirrus clouds. Aerosol and ozone measurements suggest a complicated history of stratospheric-tropospheric exchanges embedded within the upper-level flow, and cirrus cloud formation was noted to occur locally at the boundaries of stratospheric aerosol-enriched layers that became humidified through diffusion, precipitation, or advective processes. Apparent cirrus cloud alterations include abnormally high ice crystal concentrations (up to approximately 600/L), complex radial ice crystal types, and relatively large haze particles in cirrus uncinus cell heads at temperatures between -40 and -50 C. Implications for volcanic-cirrus cloud climate effects and usual (nonvolcanic aerosol) jet stream cirrus cloud formation are discussed.

Sassen, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS1994

Investigation of water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

Water vapor imagery from geostationary satellites has been available for over a decade. These data are used extensively by operational analysts and forecasters, mainly in a qualitative mode (Weldon and Holmes 1991). In addition to qualitative applications, motions deduced in animated water vapor imagery can be used to infer wind fields in cloudless regimes, thereby augmenting the information provided by cloud-drift wind vectors. Early attempts at quantifying the data by tracking features in water vapor imagery met with modest success (Stewart et al. 1985; Hayden and Stewart 1987). More recently, automated techniques have been developed and refined, and have resulted in upper-level wind observations comparable in quality to current operational cloud-tracked winds (Laurent 1993). In a recent study by Velden et al. (1993) it was demonstrated that wind sets derived from Meteosat-3 (M-3) water vapor imagery can provide important environmental wind information in data void areas surrounding tropical cyclones, and can positively impact objective track forecasts. M-3 was repositioned to 75W by the European Space Agency in 1992 in order to provide complete coverage of the Atlantic Ocean. Data from this satellite are being transmitted to the U.S. for operational use. Compared with the current GOES-7 (G-7) satellite (positioned near 112W), the M-3 water vapor channel contains a superior horizontal resolution (5 km vs. 16 km ). In this paper, we examine wind sets derived using automated procedures from both GOES-7 and Meteosat-3 full disk water vapor imagery in order to assess this data as a potentially important source of large-scale wind information. As part of a product demonstration wind sets were produced twice a day at CIMSS during a six-week period in March and April (1994). These data sets are assessed in terms of geographic coverage, statistical accuracy, and meteorological impact through preliminary results of numerical model forecast studies.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Satellite-observed characteristics of midwest severe thunderstorm anvils

The cloud top and anvil structure of severe thunderstorms observed by the GOES satellite are analyzed for five SESAME cases in 1979 and four non-SESAME cases in 1980-1982. The data is compared with previous models and hypotheses, paying particular attention to the V feature and thermal couplets in the IR observations. The characteristics of the cases are examined and related to the upper-level temperature and wind conditions. It is found that the warm points downwind of the cloud top are due to subsidence. The anaylsis suggests the presence of subsidence due to mountainlike waves. A model in which the close-in warm point is produced by both internal cloud air motions and stratospheric flow around and over the cloud top. It is suggested that the distant warm point is due to either a wave perturbation from air flowing over the cloud top, or air flowing horizonatlly around the elevated portion of the cloud top and anvil.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Low-level circulations induced by an upper-level jet in a fine mesh numerical model

Attention is given to varying the initial conditions in the Penn State three-dimensional numerical model in the development of the low-level jet over the Ohio Valley during the 10 May 1973 severe weather event. The results of two forecasts are summarized: (1) the control forecast which interpolated the National Meteorological Center's operational analysis to the mesoscale model grid; and (2) modifying the control forecast by inserting artificial soundings and surface observations. Enhancements are made on the basis of subsynoptic scale analyses by Uccellini and surface data. The results indicate that the low-level jet was in part induced by pressure changes associated with deceleration and horizontal divergence of air in the exit region of the upper-level jet. The enhancement of the initial moisture field using surface reports of clouds and precipitation has a substantial effect on precipitation.

Burkhart, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Evidence for asymmetric inertial instability in the FIRE satellite dataset

One of the main goals of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) is obtaining the basic knowledge to better interpret satellite image of clouds on regional and smaller scales. An analysis of a mesoscale circulation phenomenon as observed in hourly FIRE satellite images is presented. Specifically, the phenomenon of interest appeared on satellite images as a group of propagating cloud wavelets located on the edge of a cirrus canopy on the anticylonic side of a strong, upper-level subtropical jet. These wavelets, which were observed between 1300 and 2200 GMT on 25 February 1987, are seen most distinctly in the GOES-West infrared satellite picture at 1800 GMT. The purpose is to document that these wavelets were a manifestation of asymmetric inertial instability. During their lifetime, the wavelets were located over the North American synoptic sounding network, so that the meteorological conditions surrounding their occurrence could be examined. A particular emphasis of the analysis is on the jet streak in which the wavelets were imbedded. The characteristics of the wavelets are examined using hourly satellite imagery. The hypothesis that inertial instability is the dynamical mechanism responsible for generating the observed cloud wavelets was examined. To further substantiate this contention, the observed characteristics of the wavelets are compared to, and found to be consistent with, a theoretical model of inertia instability by Stevens and Ciesielski.

Stevens, Duane E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Convective Biases in the US DOE Global Storm‐Resolving Model: Insights From Regionally Refined Simulations During the CACTI Campaign

Accurately simulating convective processes in complex terrain remains a critical challenge for global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). This study systematically evaluates moist convective biases in the Regionally Refined Mesh configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (RRM-SCREAM) using comprehensive observations and large-eddy simulations from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) campaign in the mountainous area of central Argentina. Comparisons of simulations with high-resolution observations and reanalysis data indicate that RRM-SCREAM effectively captures large-scale meteorological patterns, including regional atmospheric gradients and diurnal variability. However, RRM-SCREAM disproportionately produces smaller precipitation clusters referred to as “popcorn convection,” and exaggerated rainfall intensities compared to observations and reference models. Detailed examination of a representative orographic shallow-to-deep convective transition case shows that RRM-SCREAM delays initial shallow convection growth due to lower-tropospheric dryness and sustained convective inhibition, but once triggered, deep convection becomes overly vigorous with excessively strong vertical velocities and elevated cloud ice content, linked to a thermodynamic structure characterized by suppressed low-level moistening and excessive upper-level moisture retention. Our results highlight specific deficiencies in the model representation of convective vertical velocity, cloud microphysical processes, and convective precipitation organization within RRM-SCREAM. Addressing these biases is essential for improving the predictions of convective clouds and precipitation in the global high-resolution atmospheric models.

Su, Tianning [Lawrence Livermore National Laborato↗

NASA NTRS1989

The primary cloud physics mechanisms of microburst formation

Several atmospheric soundings have been used as initial conditions in the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences' two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model and resulted in a wide range of microbursts, some very wet and some nearly dry. Observations confirm the occurrence of at least three of the microbursts and give good comparisons of the intensity, upper-level convergence, downdraft, and other microburst characteristics. The effects of the liquid and ice microphysics are examined quantitatively. Precipitation loading, graupel/hail melting, and rain evaporation are all shown to be important. Evaporation and milting are, in general, the most dominant effects.

Orville, H. D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The evolution of Florida thunderstorms on 23 September 1979 as observed by an airborne passive microwave radiometer

The observations made by the aircraft are examined in order to determine sensing parameters for future satellite missions. Minimum brightness temperatures substantially below atmospheric temperatures are revealed in the data. Scattering by an ice layer within the clouds is postulated as the cause. A one-dimensional cloud model initialized with a representative local sounding gives reasonable values for the height and thickness of this ice layer. The model cloud is similar to the observed cloud in both cloud top height and radar reflectivity. A 'mystery' feature observed by the microwave sensors as an area of enhanced scattering, suggesting an updraft core of graupel that in turn is indicative of a convective tower is considered of particular interest. It is noted that this feature was masked in the visible and infrared sensors by the presence of upper-level semitransparent cirrus. The detection of this mystery feature is seen as suggesting that passive microwave sensing of convective areas may provide information regarding the location and/or strength of the more active towers which cannot be detected now with conventional visible or infrared instruments because of a uniform higher-level cloud cover.

Hakkarinen, I. M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Research aircraft observations of the mesoscale and microscale structure of a cold front over the eastern Pacific Ocean

The structure of an oceanic cold front is described on the basis of research aircraft observations taken during the Ocean Storms field experiment. Synoptic and mesoscale analyses compare the structure of an upper-level jet-front system observed slightly downstream from the wind speed maximum to its structure in the upstream entrance region. Stratospheric potential vorticity and ozone were found within the frontal zone down to about 800 mb. Microscale analyses of the front near the sea surface were carried out for a portion of the front having the signature of a 'rope' cloud in satellite imagery. A narrow (less than 1 km) zone of upward motion (about 4 m/s) and of horizontal shear (about 0.01/s) characterized the front near the surface. Significant alongfront variability was found, including lateral displacements in the frontal zone where there were weaker updrafts.

Bond, Nicholas A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Intercomparison of the Impacts of Varying Cloud Droplet–Nucleating Aerosols on the Life Cycle and Microphysics of Isolated Deep Convection

The microphysical impacts of aerosol particles on scattered isolated deep convective cells near Houston, Texas, on 19 June 2013, are examined using multiple cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations initialized with vertical profiles of low and high concentrations of cloud droplet–nucleating aerosols. These simulations formed part of the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) conducted by the Deep Convective Working Group of the Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Climate (ACPC) initiative. Each CRM generated a field of convective cells representing those observed during the case study with varying degrees of accuracy. The Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac) cell-tracking algorithm was applied to each MIP CRM simulation to track relatively long-lived convective cells (20–60 min). Most of the CRMs produced similar aerosol loading impacts on the warm phase of tracked cell properties with reduced autoconversion and accretion growth of rain, increased cloud water, reduced rainfall, and reduced near-surface evaporation of rain. The sign of aerosol impacts on the warm-phase properties of the convective cells was also quite consistent over cell lifetimes with the greatest magnitude of influence in the first half of the life cycle in most CRMs. In contrast, the ice-phase response to aerosol loading was highly variable among CRMs and included increases or decreases in ice amounts at inconsistent stages of the cell life cycle and midlevel versus upper-level changes in ice. This intermodel variability in ice is indicative both of the complex indirect interactions between aerosols and ice-phase processes in deep convection and their associated parameterizations.

Aerosol-cloud interaction↗

NASA NTRS1985

Comma cloud development in a two-layer baroclinic model with vertical water vapor flux at mid-level

As an extension of a previous study (Saltzman and Tang, 1985) in which water vapor and cloud were confined to the lower half of the atmosphere in a growing baroclinic wave, the vertical flux of moisture across the middle (e.g., 500 mb) level to and from the upper level is now allowed for. The results show that there is a tendency for the upper-level maximum mixing ratio to shift to the east relative to the lower-level maximum mixing ratio. This is consistent with the eastward tilt with height of the common form cloud in the cold-conveyor cross-section and the poleward tilt of the cloud in the warm-conveyor cross-section as observed by Carlson (1980).

Tang, Chung-Muh↗