A relative value framework: Why do different electricity system technologies have different economic value?
Not Available
Mowers, Matthew (ORCID:0000000198789588)↗
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Potential Economic Values of Low-Vapor-Pressure Gasoline-Range Bio-Blendstocks: Property Estimation, and Blending Optimization
Adding non-traditional blendstocks derived from biomass into gasoline has gained renewed interest since it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially enhance fuel properties and boost engine efficiencies. A competitive bio-blendstock candidate should have either lower prices or superior properties or both relative to conventional gasoline blending components. Gasoline is a mixture of hundreds compounds specified by properties rather than compositions. The addition of bio-blendstocks, most likely oxygenates, will modify the property mixing rules due to the non-ideal interactions between polar and nonpolar components. This paper presents an equation-of-state-based model for predicting Reid vapor pressure, reduced order non-linear property blending models for computing key properties of final gasoline products, and a blending optimization approach to identify key economic drivers. This paper also evaluates the economic values of bio-blendstocks to petroleum refiners using those models. In additional to ethanol, six low-vapor-pressure bio-blendstock candidates were evaluated: i-propanol, n-propanol, i-butanol, diisobutylene, cyclopentanone, and a mixture of furans. Reid vapor pressure, distillation temperatures, and octane numbers were identified as the key economic drivers of adding bio-blendstock. The economic values of those bio-blendstocks range from 2.22 to 4.00 US dollar per gasoline gallon equivalent in 2013 to 2017 5-year averaged price basis. The bio-blendstocks with higher octane numbers may have higher economic values. The uncertainties in property predictions may lead to roughly 15% deviation in the economic value evaluation.
Jiang, Yuan↗
Precise $\textit{Q}$-value measurements of 112,113 Ag and 115 Cd with the Canadian Penning trap for evaluation of potential ultralow $\textit{Q}$-value $\textit{β}$ decays
Background: An ultralow $\textit{Q}$-value $\textit{β}$ decay can occur from a parent nuclide to an excited nuclear state in the daughter such that $Q_{\text{UL}}$ 1 keV. These decay processes are of interest for nuclear $\textit{β}$-decay theory and as potential candidates in neutrino mass determination experiments. To date, only one ultralow $\textit{Q}$-value $\textit{β}$ decay has been observed—that of 115 In with $Q_β$ = 147(10) eV. A number of other potential candidates exist, but improved mass measurements are necessary to determine if these decay channels are energetically allowed and, in fact, ultralow. Purpose: To perform precise $\textit{β}$-decay $\textit{Q}$-value measurements of 112,113 Ag and 115 Cd and to use them in combination with nuclear energy level data for the daughter isotopes 112,113 Cd and 115 In to determine if the potential ultralow $\textit{Q}$-value $\textit{β}$-decay branches of 112,113 Ag and 115 Cd are energetically allowed and 1 keV. Method: The Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory was used to measure the cyclotron frequency ratios of singly charged 112,113 Ag and 115 Cd ions with respect to their daughters 112,113 Cd and 115 In. From these measurements, the ground-state to ground-state $\textit{β}$-decay $\textit{Q}$ values were obtained. Results: The 112 Ag → 112 Cd, 113 Ag → 113 Cd, and 115 Cd → 115 In $\textit{β}$-decay $\textit{Q}$ values were measured to be $Q_β$( 112 Ag) = 3990.16(22) keV, $Q_β$( 113 Ag) = 2085.7(4.6) keV, and $Q_β$( 115 Cd) = 1451.36(34) keV. These results were compared to energies of excited states in 112 Cd at 3997.75(14) keV, 113 Cd at 2015.6(2.5) and 2080(10) keV, and 115 In at 1448.787(9) keV, resulting in precise $Q_{\text{UL}}$ values for the potential decay channels of –7.59(26) keV, 6(11) keV, and 2.57(34) keV, respectively. Conclusion: The potential ultralow $\textit{Q}$-value decays of 112 Ag and 115 Cd have been ruled out. 113 Ag is still a possible candidate until a more precise measurement of the 2080(10) keV, 1/2+ state of 113 Cd is available. In the course of this work we have found the ground state mass of 113 Ag reported in the 2020 Atomic Mass Evaluation [Wang et al., Chin. Phys. C 45, 030003 (2021)] to be lower than our measurement by 69(17) keV (a 4σ discrepancy).
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Transmission Value in 2023: Market Data Shows the Value of Transmission Remained High in Certain Locations Despite Overall Low Wholesale Electricity Prices
In 2023 additional electricity transmission would have provided the most value for links that crossed between grid interconnection regions in the United States (the Western Interconnection, the Eastern Interconnection, the Texas Interconnection) or crossed between system operator regions within the same interconnection. Many multi-interconnection or multi-region links had values of greater than $\$20$/MWh, or up to $\$175$ million/yr per 1 GW expanded transmission (subject to limits to the depth of the market at each side of the link). In contrast, many links within regions, or between regions in the northeast, had relatively low values in 2023, following the overall decline in wholesale electricity prices in 2023 compared with 2021-2022. The most valuable link in 2023, at $\$61$ /MWh, was between Texas and the Southwest. Multiple events in 2023 (high natural gas prices in the western U.S., and high summer temperatures in Texas and the Southwest) were observed to have driven this high value. Of particular note, high prices in Texas occurred at a largely distinct set of hours from high prices in the Southwest, helping to drive up the value of transmission in total and demonstrating significant value to both regions. This example demonstrates the unique value of transmission (compared to other solutions, such as building local generation resources) in delivering benefits to multiple regions given its ability to connect areas of the country that inevitably face differing circumstances.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
What Is the Value of Alternative Methods for Estimating Ramping Needs?
Power system operators procure and deploy flexibility reserves or ramping products to address balancing needs caused by uncertainty and variability of load and generation. Existing methods estimate ramping needs using calendar information and historical forecast errors. Novel methods investigate if real-time weather information could inform ramping and other balancing requirements. This paper compares estimation methods for ramping requirements in theory and practice. The theoretical framework indicates when an alternative method could yield improved economic or reliability performance than existing methods by requiring lower or higher levels of ramping products. Preliminary simulations on a 118-bus test system for 4 days in May 2019 illustrate how system performance improves or deteriorates when ramping requirements are weather-informed (alternative) instead of calendar-based (baseline). Preliminary results suggest high variability in change of performance and underline the impact of additional factors, such as system conditions, on the realized performance change.
41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
Controls on Stable Methane Isotope Values in Northern Peatlands and Potential Shifts in Values Under Permafrost Thaw Scenarios
Abstract Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH 4 ), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH 4 production in peatlands will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ 13 C‐CH 4 ) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ 13 C‐CH 4 is used in top‐down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH 4 production pathways and associated δ 13 C‐CH 4 values is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ 13 C‐CH 4 values from high‐latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH 4 stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal‐Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ 13 C‐CH 4 was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ 13 C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (−61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost‐free bogs (−74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (−81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ 13 C‐CH 4 was best explained by sedge cover, CH 4 concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH (r 2 = 0.50,p < 0.001). Emitted δ 13 C‐CH 4 varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ 13 C‐CH 4 . We calculated a mixed atmospheric δ 13 C‐CH 4 value for northern peatlands of −65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this value is more sensitive to landscape drying than wetting under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ 13 C‐CH 4 values are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
Distributed rate design: A review of early approaches and practical considerations for value of solar tariffs
Not Available
O’Shaughnessy, Eric (ORCID:0000000169280184)↗
Temporal complementarity and value of wind-PV hybrid systems across the United States
Not Available
Harrison-Atlas, Dylan (ORCID:0000000252173355)↗
Chemical Upcycling of Polyethylene, Polypropylene, and Mixtures to High-Value Surfactants
Conversion of plastic wastes to fatty acids is an attractive means to supplement the sourcing of these high-value, high-volume chemicals. We report a method for transforming polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) at ~80% conversion to fatty acids with number-average molar masses of up to ~700 and 670 daltons, respectively. The process is applicable to municipal PE and PP wastes and their mixtures. Temperature-gradient thermolysis is the key to controllably degrading PE and PP into waxes and inhibiting the production of small molecules. The waxes are upcycled to fatty acids by oxidation over manganese stearate and subsequent processing. PP ..beta..-scission produces more olefin wax and yields higher acid-number fatty acids than does PE ..beta..-scission. We further convert the fatty acids to high-value, large-market-volume surfactants. Industrial-scale technoeconomic analysis suggests economic viability without the need for subsidies.
deconstruction↗
Value of Information App (Value of Information App for Binary Geothermal Decisions and Binary Geothermal Possibilities) (Negative/Positive) [SWR-25-15]
Code base to run Streamlit Value of Information App for binary decision with geothermal techno economics. An open-source VOI app that models binary decisions (e.g. do something (drill) or walk away (do nothing)) and binary geothermal scenarios (positive or negative) has been developed. Users can input their anticipated economic values (profits or losses) directly into the value matrix to represent all four combinations of these actions and geothermal possibilities. VOI in general requires probabilities to be assigned for “probability of success”, or probability of experiencing a positive geothermal scenario versus negative. The users of the App can toggle this probability of success both in the demo problem and in the Value of Imperfect Information problem. The VOI App allows users to upload their own labeled data to evaluate how well it allows them to distinguish between positive versus negative sites. We have been using IGNENIOUS data to test and demonstrate; industry members have prepared their own labeled data, and have present their examples from diverse use cases at a conference workshop. The VOI App is open to the public at: https://voigeothermalrising.streamlit.app
Trainor-Guitton, Whitney [National Renewable Energ↗
Moving from residual lignocellulosic biomass into high–value products: Outcomes from a long–term international cooperation
Major progress in the bioprocessing of lignocellulose to fuels and value-added chemicals has created the possibility of a low carbon-footprint economy. However, the current complexity and associated costs of lignocellulose conversion result in a higher price for ethanol than for fossil fuels. The cost of cellulosic ethanol production will be lowered by further progress in development of biorefinery technology that produces both ethanol and high-value chemicals with bio-based products that are beginning to penetrate consumer markets in the USA, Brazil, and worldwide. The cost-effectiveness of low carbon-footprint bioproducts will benefit from advances in supplying large amounts of biomass solids to the biorefinery. We describe here outcomes from a successful long-term international cooperation between the Laboratory of Renewable Resources Engineering (LORRE) at Purdue University in the United States and Brazil's Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA) and Federal University of Sâo Carlos (UFSCar), which has contributed practical pathways to enhance the biorefinery concept. Furthermore, this paper gives an overview of developments that address fundamental knowledge of lignocellulosic biomass pretreatment hydrolysis under optimized operational conditions and bioreactor configurations, and the science and engineering that contributes to the effective production of fuel and ethanol and value-added products from biomass.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids: Modeled vs. empirical wholesale market value and net-value for co-located solar + storage projects [Slides]
Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024. We model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities and compare the resulting value with standalone PV value, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Economic and Environmental Analysis to Evaluate the Potential Value of Co-Optima Diesel Bioblendstocks to Petroleum Refiners
The U.S. petroleum refining sector is undergoing a period of historic transformation, catalyzed by the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. Diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks have gained traction, owing to their superior fuel properties and environmental performance as compared to traditional petroleum fuels. This work couples refinery linear programming models with life cycle assessment to quantify the potential economic and environmental benefits, and trade-offs, of blending diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks at petroleum refineries. Linear programming models were developed in Aspen Process Industry Modeling Systems (PIMS) for three representative petroleum refinery configurations of differing complexity. Seven diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks: 4-butoxyheptane, 5-ethyl-4-propylnonane, soy biodiesel, sludge hydrothermal liquefaction diesel, polyoxymethylene ethers, renewable diesel, and hexyl hexanoate, were investigated to identify key fuel properties that influence refineries' economics and to track the effect of adding bioblendstocks on refinery-wide cradle-to-gate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. These analyses considered blending levels from 10 to 30 vol% and fuel demand projections over the period 2040 to 2050. This analysis determines that bioblendstock sulfur content and cetane number are the primary fuel attributes with the potential to provide value to refiners. Life cycle assessment results indicate that the use of diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks can reduce cradle-to-gate refinery GHG emissions by up to ~ 40 % relative to conventional refinery operations when considering carbon uptake in the supply chain of the bioblendstock. Refinery-wide marginal GHG abatement costs range from 120 to 3,600 USD2016/metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent avoided across the scenarios evaluated. Reducing the price of bioblendstocks is identified as a key to their adoption.
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY P↗
Techno-economic analysis of biomass value-added processing informed by pilot scale de-ashing of paper sludge feedstock
Paper sludge biomass represents an underutilized feedstock rich in pulped and processed cellulose which is currently a waste stream with significant disposal cost to industry for landfilling services. Effective fractionation of the cellulose from paper sludge presents an opportunity to yield cellulose as feedstock for value-added processes. A novel approach to cellulose fractionation is the sidehill screening system, herein studied at the pilot-plant scale. Composition analysis determined ash removal and carbohydrate retention of both sidehill and high-performance benchtop screening systems. Sidehill screening resulted in greater carbohydrates retention relative to benchtop screening (90% vs 66%) and similar ash removal (95% vs 98%). Techno-economic analysis for production of sugar syrup yielded a minimum selling price of $331/metric ton of sugar syrup including disposal savings, significantly less than a commercial sugar syrup without fractionation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis showed that screening conditions played a significant role in economic feasibility for cellulosic yield and downstream processes.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Assessing the value of electric vehicle managed charging: a review of methodologies and results
Electric vehicle managed charging can benefit all consumers by supporting grid planning, operation, and reliability – especially complementing high-renewable systems.
Anwar, Muhammad Bashar↗
Simulation of Linear Non-Hermitian Boundary-Value Problems with Quantum Singular-Value Transformation
Herein we propose a quantum algorithm for simulating dissipative waves in inhomogeneous linear media as a boundary-value problem. Using the so-called quantum singular value transformation (QSVT), we construct a quantum circuit that models the propagation of electromagnetic waves in a one-dimensional system with outgoing boundary conditions. The corresponding measurement procedure is also discussed. Limitations of the QSVT algorithm are identified in connection with the large condition numbers that the dispersion matrices exhibit at weak dissipation.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
On the Impact of Income, Age, and Travel Distance on the Value of Time
The value of time (VOT) is a fundamental component used in transportation modeling, policy analysis, and economic appraisal. Decades of research and practice have empirically estimated the VOT across many factors (e.g., mode, purpose, time, comfort, etc.), yet little is known about its underlying form. Although it is well established that VOT can vary, it is still unclear whether patterns exist in this variation. The objective of this paper is not to merely estimate the VOT, but to model the VOT across multiple continuous and interacting variables. The purpose is to reveal its functional form with respect to mode, age, gender, purpose, income, and time of day to provide a generalizable understanding for future research and practice. Such an understanding can help develop simpler models and reduce the need for bespoke estimations for every conceivable variable perturbation. This research utilized a household travel survey containing 14,159 reported trips with imputed travel time and costs for the alternative mode choices. The average overall estimated VOT is 40.32 $/h, with results showing VOT varying log-linearly with income and trip distance, but following a Gaussian function (normal curve) with age. Overall, the results show that travel distance dominates VOT variation, which increases exponentially at a rate that is 3.61 times higher per mile of distance than per $10,000 of income, and that VOT by age peaks at age 54. This basic understanding of how the VOT varies sets the foundation for answering the subsequent question for why it might vary.
Engineering↗