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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Value of Information App (Value of Information App for Binary Geothermal Decisions and Binary Geothermal Possibilities) (Negative/Positive) [SWR-25-15]

Code base to run Streamlit Value of Information App for binary decision with geothermal techno economics. An open-source VOI app that models binary decisions (e.g. do something (drill) or walk away (do nothing)) and binary geothermal scenarios (positive or negative) has been developed. Users can input their anticipated economic values (profits or losses) directly into the value matrix to represent all four combinations of these actions and geothermal possibilities. VOI in general requires probabilities to be assigned for “probability of success”, or probability of experiencing a positive geothermal scenario versus negative. The users of the App can toggle this probability of success both in the demo problem and in the Value of Imperfect Information problem. The VOI App allows users to upload their own labeled data to evaluate how well it allows them to distinguish between positive versus negative sites. We have been using IGNENIOUS data to test and demonstrate; industry members have prepared their own labeled data, and have present their examples from diverse use cases at a conference workshop. The VOI App is open to the public at: https://voigeothermalrising.streamlit.app

Trainor-Guitton, Whitney [National Renewable Energ↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Value of Information From Horizontal Distributed Acoustic Sensing Compared to Multicomponent Geophones Via Machine Learning

Abstract Faults play an important role in recharging many geothermal reservoirs, and seismic information can image the locations of these faults. The value of information (VOI) metric is used to objectively quantify and compare the value of two types of seismic receiver data via a machine learning approach. The demonstrated VOI methodology is novel by including spatial models from seismic data and obtaining the information statistics from machine learning. Our two-dimensional numerical experiments compare images created from sparsely spaced (80 m), two-component geophone sampling to high spatial resolution (1 m), single-component DAS. We used a three-fold cross validation of a U-Net convolutional neural networks to achieve average classification statistics. The results suggest that when horizontal sources are utilized, geophones and DAS identify reflectors and non-reflectors at roughly the same rate. The average F1 score for horizontal DAS is 0.939 and 0.931 for geophones. For images created from a vertical source, DAS performed marginally better (F1 = 0.919) than geophones (F1 = 0.877). Our transferrable methodology can provide guidance on which acquisition scenarios can improve images of important structures in the subsurface and present an efficient method for obtaining reliability statistics from high-dimensional, spatial data.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Value-of-Information Analysis of a Fracture Prediction Method

A core-based fracture prediction method is used to illustrate a Value of Information (VOI) decision-analysis protocol to inform completion decisions in tight-gas sandstones. The ratio of late host-rock cement to available pore volume or degradation index uses petrographic observations of cement distributions in core (including sidewall cores) to predict whether nearby but unsampled fractures (widths > 0.5 to 1 mm) are sealed (non-conductive) or open (conductive). Measurements from four sandstone plays suggest that the index correctly predicts open vs. sealed fractures with an accuracy in excess of 80%. The value added is calculated using Bayesian inference in which accuracy of the index serves as the likelihood of the prior distribution of open fractures to assess the posterior probability that data represent a useful predictor of producibility. VOI of the prediction method is more than three times the cost to acquire the data. VOI is most sensitive to play-specific geologic and cost parameters including cost to drill, expected revenue from a successful well, cost of completion, cost of acquiring data for the index, and fracture probability distributions. The approach provides a way to value acquiring fracture data and points to a need for zone-specific production data in tight-gas sandstones.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Derisking Superhot Geothermal Plays with Value of Information: Utilizing Play Fairway Analysis, Geophysics and Technoeconomics

This paper describes a methodology for evaluating how the play fairways analysis (e.g., favorability) can improve our chances of making geothermal development decisions. We make statistical resource assessments and couple them with technoeconomic analysis utilizing previous favorability work performed for the Newberry Volcano. We demonstrate how the favorability can be used in a decision analysis framework because the Newberry favorability also estimated an associated uncertainty. The specific decision considered is how large of a power plant to build, which is difficult given the uncertainty about the resource size. Our results focus on two resource types, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems, and they demonstrate how estimates of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates of the geothermal resource (denoted as the P10, P50, and P90, respectively) can be used in a decision analysis framework. Lastly, the value of information results explore using favorability with and without the magnetotelluric and gravity data from the Newberry Volcano. As expected, the favorability is more reliable, according to our methodology, at indicating the resource size when it includes the two geophysical models.

enhanced geothermal system↗
DOE OSTI2021

Value of Information and Data Management Platform Promoting Modern Data Analysis Utilization. STTR Phase I, Final Technical Report

The immense growth in weather and river sensor data availability along with increases in computational power and algorithmic sophistication have enabled the widespread application of physical, machine learning, and artificial intelligence algorithms to river forecasting. The forecasts produced by widely varying model approaches are inherently limited in different ways, such as by the number and quality of training observations, producing biased predictions that achieve optimal skill only over specific ranges of weather and river conditions. Thus, despite the growing availability and new sources of forecasts, hydropower owners cannot fully leverage the information because they lack an effective mechanism to determine the “best” forecast for given conditions or objectives. Tools are needed to consolidate forecast information, demonstrate skill, and extract optimal forecast guidance from the range of possibilities. Such tools will increase uptake and beneficial use of the growing wealth of forecast information, and lead to improved operating decisions, optimal power generation, and enhanced system value. This research proposes to improve the value of forecasts by developing a broadly accessible verification framework and applying machine learning techniques to identify the ‘best’ forecast from an ensemble of sources given the current weather, river, and operating conditions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Method for Groundwater-Level Mapping and Monitoring-Well Network Optimization at Hanford

This report summarizes the initial results and outcomes of a physics-informed, data-driven groundwater level (GWL) mapping capability for the Hanford Site. GWL mapping at Hanford is typically conducted annually and requires a significant amount of computational and expert resources, and it does not allow assessment of the informational value of specific monitoring wells. The proposed method produces spatially and temporally resolved fields consistent with sparse, irregularly sampled, and nonuniformly distributed well measurements. Implemented successfully, this capability will allow rapid mapping of groundwater levels and provide an opportunity to optimize monitoring activities (both location and sampling frequency) based on data information value evaluation. The approach integrates a diffusion-based generative model – trained on MODFLOW simulation data from the Plateau-to-River (P2R) model – with score-based data assimilation (SDA), allowing observation-conditioned mapping without retraining for each monitoring-network layout.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Certification of Uranium Isotope Amount Ratios in a Suite of Uranium Ore Concentrate Certified Reference Materials

Here, in this study, data from thirteen laboratories from around the world are presented for a successful certification of uranium isotope ratios in uranium ore concentrate (UOC) certified reference materials from the National Research Council Canada. Different mass spectrometric measurement principles (including SF-ICP-MS, quadruple ICP-MS, TIMS, MC-ICP-MS, SIMS and AMS) and measurement procedures were employed. In general, data from all sources exhibit good consistency with TIMS and MC-ICP-MS showing superior performance. The three candidate UOC CRMs (UCLO-1, UCHI-1 and UPER-1) have natural uranium isotope ratios with certified values of 0.5304(7) x 10 -4 , 0.5475(2) x 10 -4 and 0.5361(4) x 10 -4 for n( 234 U)/n( 238 U) and 0.007 2563(13), 0.007 2563(10) and 0.007 2542(11) for n( 235 U)/n( 238 U), respectively, with expanded uncertainty (k = 2) applicable to the last digit of the value given in the parentheses. Information values for n( 236 U)/n( 238 U) in these three CRMs, measured by AMS, are also provided: 10 x 10 -12 , 200 x 10 -12 and 22 x 10 -12 . The uncertainties of the proposed certified values of uranium isotope ratios in UOC CRMs are superior to available reference materials, and the values of n( 234 U)/n( 238 U) and n( 236 U)/n( 238 U) show significant variation among the three CRMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis of biomass value-added processing informed by pilot scale de-ashing of paper sludge feedstock

Paper sludge biomass represents an underutilized feedstock rich in pulped and processed cellulose which is currently a waste stream with significant disposal cost to industry for landfilling services. Effective fractionation of the cellulose from paper sludge presents an opportunity to yield cellulose as feedstock for value-added processes. A novel approach to cellulose fractionation is the sidehill screening system, herein studied at the pilot-plant scale. Composition analysis determined ash removal and carbohydrate retention of both sidehill and high-performance benchtop screening systems. Sidehill screening resulted in greater carbohydrates retention relative to benchtop screening (90% vs 66%) and similar ash removal (95% vs 98%). Techno-economic analysis for production of sugar syrup yielded a minimum selling price of $331/metric ton of sugar syrup including disposal savings, significantly less than a commercial sugar syrup without fractionation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis showed that screening conditions played a significant role in economic feasibility for cellulosic yield and downstream processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Saturating the one-axis twisting quantum Cramér-Rao bound with a total spin readout

We show that the lowest quantum Cramér-Rao bound achievable in interferometry with a one-axis twisted spin coherent state is saturated by the asymptotic method of moments error of a protocol that uses one call to the one-axis twisting, one call to time-reversed one-axis twisting, and a final total spin measurement (i.e., a twist-untwist protocol). The result is derived by first showing that the metrological phase diagram for one-axis twisting is asymptotically characterized by a single quantum Fisher information value N(N + 1)/2 for all times, then constructing a twist-untwist protocol having a method of moments error that saturates this value. The case of finite-range one-axis twisting is similarly analyzed, and a simple functional form for the metrological phase diagram is found in both the short-range and long-range interaction regimes. Numerical evidence suggests that the finite-range analogues of twist-untwist protocols can exhibit a method of moments error that asymptotically saturates the lowest quantum Cramér-Rao bound achievable in interferometry with finite-range one-axis twisted spin coherent states for all interaction times.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

An approach to urban waterway assessment using holistic values and reciprocity

Current aquatic ecosystem assessment methods and tools often focus on physical, chemical, and biological indicators of ecosystem health. This approach to ecosystem assessment is not always straightforward to execute in urban environments and ignores potential connectivity between social and environmental outcomes. During a workshop at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology in Brisbane, Australia in 2023 (SUSE6), we developed an approach to urban aquatic ecosystem assessment that incorporates a holistic perspective. Specifically, our approach considers both environmental (biological, chemical, and physical integrity) and social (community connection, human safety, resource use) values of urban waterways. This approach is inclusive of Indigenous perspectives, such as the concept of reciprocity, whereby consideration of both the environment and society leads to a healthy ecosystem. Here, to highlight how this holistic assessment approach could be used, we present real-world examples that included assessing both environmental and societal values informed by reciprocity or balanced perspectives. This approach can be broadly applied and adapted to specific aquatic ecosystem conditions and projects, providing an inclusive, community-centered approach for assessing the health of waterways in urban environments.

Indigenous knowledge↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tag you're it: Application of stable isotope labeling and LC-MS to identify the precursors of specialized metabolites in plants

Untargeted liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC-MS) can contribute a comprehensive and unbiased picture of the metabolic space of plants. These data can be used to quantify natural metabolite variation for genome wide association studies, to compare global metabolic responses from environmental or genetic perturbations, and to identify previously undescribed metabolites in Nature. A major limitation with untargeted metabolomics is the classification and identification of the thousands of metabolite features that can be detected in a single analytical run. Isotopic labeling improves the informational value of these datasets by categorizing metabolites as being derived from specific upstream precursors and/or to known metabolic pathways. When a 13 C-labeled precursor is fed to either a plant or tissue, the downstream metabolites produced from it have a higher m/z value than the molecules in the pre-existing pool, generating an m/z peak pair that can be specifically identified within the MS data. In this paper, we outline methods and principles to consider when supplementing untargeted MS data with isotopic labeling, including how to choose the appropriate isotopic label, grow and feed plant tissues to maximize label uptake and incorporation into derivatives, optimize LC-MS methods, and interpret the resulting labeling data. Although the focus here is on annotation of amino acid-derived metabolites using LC-MS, we anticipate that the methods are generally adaptable to other precursors, plant species, and chromatographic approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

SDSS IV MaNGA: visual morphological and statistical characterization of the DR15 sample

ABSTRACT We present a detailed visual morphological classification for the 4614 MaNGA galaxies in SDSS Data Release 15, using image mosaics generated from a combination of r band (SDSS and deeper DESI Legacy Surveys) images and their digital post-processing. We distinguish 13 Hubble types and identify the presence of bars and bright tidal debris. After correcting the MaNGA sample for volume completeness, we calculate the morphological fractions, the bi-variate distribution of type and stellar mass M* – where we recognize a morphological transition ‘valley’ around S0a-Sa types – and the variations of the g − i colour and luminosity-weighted age over this distribution. We identified bars in 46.8 per cent of galaxies, present in all Hubble types later than S0. This fraction amounts to a factor ∼2 larger when compared with other works for samples in common. We detected 14 per cent of galaxies with tidal features, with the fraction changing with M* and morphology. For 355 galaxies, the classification was uncertain; they are visually faint, mostly of low/intermediate masses, low concentrations, and discy in nature. Our morphological classification agrees well with other works for samples in common, though some particular differences emerge, showing that our image procedures allow us to identify a wealth of added value information as compared to SDSS-based previous estimates. Based on our classification, we also propose an alternative criteria for the E–S0 separation, in the structural semimajor to semiminor axis versus bulge to total light ratio (b/a − B/T) and concentration versus semimajor to semiminor axis (C − b/a) space.

Vázquez-Mata, J. A. (ORCID:0000000186941204)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning to Select Experiments Driven by Fundamental Science and Applications for Targeted Nuclear Data Improvement

This work describes a blueprint for a process that accelerates progress in science by quantitatively answering the following question: What is the optimal combination of fundamental-science and application-driven experiments to maximally reduce pertinent data uncertainties? Answering this question entails solving a high-dimensional and complex optimization problem that is best solved with advanced statistic techniques often classified as machine learning. We apply this process within the framework of nuclear data with the aim to select an experiment combination that will reduce uncertainties in 239 Pu nuclear data for neutron energies between 1 and 600 keV. In this field, fundamental-physics driven data, called differential, look at one nuclear physics observable at a time. They are contrasted to application-driven, integral, data where one or few resulting values inform a broad set of nuclear data across several nuclides and energies. The candidates for integral experiments are criticality measurements that were refined by a genetic algorithm to be maximally sensitive to 239 Pu fission cross sections in the desired energy range. Twenty-three candidate differential experiments were investigated and span multiple nuclear physics observables (e.g., total, capture cross sections) for isotopes appearing in the integral experiments. The optimal combination among these candidate experiments was investigated via generalized least squares fitting, augmented with Gaussian processes to ameliorate statistical irregularities in data, and the D-optimality criterion. The latter evaluates for each pair of candidates the joint reduction in uncertainties of all 12200 nuclear data appearing in the integral experiments compared to the knowledge we have from 168 past experiments, theory, and nuclear data. We chose as differential measurements those that investigate 63 Cu and 239 Pu total cross sections, based on D-optimality rank and feasibility constraints. Two integral (criticality) experiments were selected: An experiment with Al 2 ⁢O 3 and graphite interleaved with Pu and a thick Cu reflector explores 1–30 keV, while we target the 30–600 keV range with an experiment that swaps boron in place of graphite with a different geometry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

New NBL Pu Isotopic Standards C137A and C136A as Working Reference Materials for Radiochronometry in Nuclear Forensics

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the NBL Program Office (NBL PO) are collaborating on production of purified sub-units of the former NBS 936, 937 and 938 plutonium isotopic reference materials, which will be certified for plutonium isotopic composition and sold as certified reference materials (CRMs) C136A, C137A, and C138A, respectively. These reference materials are used throughout the United States and international community as standards for isotopic measurement method calibration and quality control and were first produced over 50 years ago. To reduce quantities of in-grown daughter products and potentially enable their use as Pu radiochronometry reference materials, the materials undergo a two-stage anion exchange purification to significantly reduce the quantities of U, Am, and Np in the source material. The purified Pu is aliquoted into ~1 mg units in the nitrate form, which will facilitate easier shipping and use compared to the 0.25 g parent units. The production process has been completed for the high- and medium- burnup isotopic standards C137A and C136A and will soon be performed for the weapons-grade Pu standard C138A. This report describes the measurement of trace actinide progeny of the Pu isotopes ( 234 U, 235 U, 236U, 241 Am and 237 Np) in purified C137A and 136A isotopic standards to provide informational values and assess the possibility of their use as working reference materials for radiochronometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Production of NBL PO plutonium isotopic standards CRM 136A, CRM 137A, and CRM 138A

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) produced approximately 1 mg units of purified Pu from the parent New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL) certified reference materials (CRM) 137, 136 and 138 isotopic standards for the NBL Program Office (NBL PO) as detailed in the revised project plan. As stated in the plan, three representative units of each material were dispensed at the same time to be characterized at LLNL and provide informational values for the quantity of Pu and progeny nuclides in each unit. NBL PO intends to collect and evaluate isotopic measurement data from multiple laboratories and certify these materials as new isotopic standards C137A, C136A, and C138A, respectively. Soon after production eleven units of each analytical standard were shipped to other analytical laboratories for the certification effort, and 121, 119, and 119 units of C137A, C136A and C138A, respectively were shipped to Mickey Finch at Y12 NBL distribution center in November 2024 (30-gallon drum, TID 003777 PRL 7000005043). Residual purified Pu from the effort is being stored indefinitely in B332 at LLNL. Detailed methods can be found in the production plan, and this report describes and documents aspects of the production effort that are not in or were modified from the original production plan.

and nuclear chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Employing Eye Trackers to Reduce Nuisance Alarms

When process operators anticipate an alarm prior to its annunciation, that alarm loses information value and becomes a nuisance. This study investigated using eye trackers to measure and adjust the salience of alarms with three methods of gaze-based acknowledgement (GBA) of alarms that estimate operator anticipation. When these methods detected possible alarm anticipation, the alarm’s audio and visual salience was reduced. A total of 24 engineering students (male = 14, female = 10) aged between 18 and 45 were recruited to predict alarms and control a process parameter in three scenario types (parameter near threshold, trending, or fluctuating). The study evaluated whether behaviors of the monitored parameter affected how frequently the three GBA methods were utilized and whether reducing alarm salience improved control task performance. The results did not show significant task improvement with any GBA methods (F(3,69) = 1.357, p = 0.263, partial η 2 = 0.056). However, the scenario type affected which GBA method was more utilized (X 2 (2, N = 432) = 30.147, p < 0.001). Alarm prediction hits with gaze-based acknowledgements coincided more frequently than alarm prediction hits without gaze-based acknowledgements (X 2 (1, N = 432) = 23.802, p < 0.001, OR = 3.877, 95% CI 2.25–6.68, p < 0.05). Participant ratings indicated an overall preference for the three GBA methods over a standard alarm design (F(3,63) = 3.745, p = 0.015, partial η 2 = 0.151). This study provides empirical evidence for the potential of eye tracking in alarm management but highlights the need for additional research to increase validity for inferring alarm anticipation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework: Informing Cybersecurity Decisions

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework is a tool that can be used by hydropower plant manager to make more educated cybersecurity investments. Users can take a self guided assessment allowing the tools to generate risk, impact and cybersecurity scores and be given risk-based recommendations to enhance decision-making.

CVF↗