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At least 19 records

Predicting river turbidity in Pine Island Bayou using machine learning techniques coupled with variational mode decomposition

Elevated turbidity levels pose significant public health risks by facilitating the transport of harmful pollutants, including metals, organic compounds, and pathogenic microorganisms into the surface water. These conditions create serious challenges for public recreational water use and drinking water treatment, leading to economic losses and health risks. This study utilizes water monitoring data in Pine Island Bayou, Texas, and develops a Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) model to predict turbidity using Attention-based Gated Recurrent Units with Encoder-Decoder (AT-GRU-ED) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), coupled with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Compared to the model without VMD, the model demonstrates satisfactory 72-hour turbidity prediction performance, achieving MAEs of 2.60 and 3.29 NTU (reductions of 53% and 58%), RMSEs of 21.08 and 31.49 NTU (reductions of 82% and 80%), and R² values of 0.96 and 0.84 on the validation and test sets, respectively. Feature importance analysis reveals that water temperature is the dominant factor influencing seasonal turbidity patterns, while real-time hourly rainfall significantly contributes to short-term variability. Turbidity typically peaks within 48 hours after rainfall events due to lagged effects from surface runoff and upstream flow. Findings suggest suspending recreational water use and water supply pumping for three days after heavy rainfall can benefit public health and improve water treatment processes. Discharges above 100 m3/s are found to accelerate sediment dilution and transport, reducing turbidity levels more quickly after the peak. In conclusion, the proposed model demonstrates reliable 72-hour turbidity prediction, supporting decision-making for water treatment plant operations and providing early warning for public recreational water use.

Deep learning↗

Dynamic Frequency Regulation Improvement in Hydropower-Hybrid System using Variational Mode Decomposition

Providing frequency response, especially fast frequency response such as Red D in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) market, is challenging for many generation plants to deliver on their own. If they have adequate flexibility, hydropower plants are typically able to provide slower regulation support (e.g., Reg A in PJM), but do not respond fast enough to provide Reg D. The ability to provide Reg D would improve their revenue because this service is typically more valuable. This work presents a control approach to use hydropower, battery, and ultracapacitor systems to provide fast regulation in a way that uses the response contribution of each asset. In particular, the proposed control architecture applies a variational mode decomposition (VMD) technique on the incoming Reg D signal to extract multiple dynamic-regulation components with non-overlapping frequencies. With the response-speed dependent alignment, these regulation components are fed to the hydrogenator and hybrid energy storage system (HESS). The paper evaluates the proposed approach on a direct-current (DC)-coupled active system by computing several performance measures and analyzing sensitivity based on HESS component proportional capacities. The results reveal that the proposed VMD-based signal conditioning performs well and that optimizing the sizing of the battery and ultracapacitor components further enhances performance.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Analysis of Narrow Bipolar Events Using Mode Decomposition Methods

Multi-resolution analysis methods can reveal the underlying physical dynamics of nonstationary signals, such as those from lightning. In this paper we demonstrate the application of two multi-resolution analysis methods: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) in a comparative way in the analysis of electric field change waveforms from lightning. EEMD and VMD decompose signals into a set of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). The IMFs can be combined using distance and divergence metrics to obtain noise reduction or to obtain new waveforms that isolate the physical processes of interest while removing irrelevant components of the original signal. We apply the EEMD and VMD methods to the observations of three close Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) that were reported by Rison et al. The ΔE observations reveal the occurrence of complex oscillatory processes after the main NBE sferic. We show that both EEMD and VMD are able to isolate the oscillations from the main NBE, with VMD being more effective of the two methods since it requires the least user supervision. The oscillations are found to begin at the end of the NBEs' downward fast positive breakdown and appear to be produced by a half-wavelength standing wave within a weakly-conducting resonant ionization cavity left behind in the wake of the streamer-based NBE event. In conclusion, additional analysis shows that one of the NBEs was likely initiated by an energetic cosmic ray shower, and also corrects a misinterpretation in the literature that fast breakdown is an artifact of NBE-like events in interferometer observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection Using Machine Learning

Wide-area protection scheme (WAPS) provides system-wide protection by detecting and mitigating small and large-scale disturbances that are difficult to resolve using local protection schemes. As this protection scheme is evolving from a substation-based distributed remedial action scheme (DRAS) to the control center-based centralized RAS (CRAS), it presents severe challenges to their cybersecurity because of its heavy reliance on an insecure grid communication, and its compromise would lead to system failure. This article presents an architecture and methodology for developing a cyber-physical anomaly detection system (CPADS) that utilizes synchrophasor measurements and properties of network packets to detect data integrity and communication failure attacks on measurement and control signals in CRAS. The proposed machine leaning-based methodology applies a rules-based approach to select relevant input features, utilizes variational mode decomposition (VMD) and decision tree (DT) algorithms to develop multiple classification models, and performs final event identification using a rules-based decision logic. Here, we have evaluated the proposed methodology of CPADS using the IEEE 39 bus system for several performance measures (accuracy, recall, precision, and F-measure) in a cyber-physical testbed environment. Furthermore, our experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm (VMD-DT) of CPADS outperforms the existing machine learning classifiers during noisy and noise-free measurements while incurring an acceptable processing overhead.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyber-Attack Identification of Synchrophasor Data Via VMD and Multifusion SVM

A large amount of synchrophasor data in the wide area measurement system (WAMS) needs to be collected and transmitted to the phasor data concentrator, thereby increasing the possibility of being attacked by hackers. The attacked data are therefore hidden into the normal synchrophasor data so that the synchrophasor data based application will be affected. To remedy this problem, an identification framework is proposed to detect the data cyber-attack in WAMS utilizing variational mode decomposition (VMD) and multifusion support vector machine (MSVM). First, VMD is used to transform the attacked data into multiple modal components. Thereafter, a novel MSVM is employed to classify the deterministic features using the proposed linear combined multikernel (LCM). Further, this LCM can fuse multiple types of features, including the time, frequency, and statistical domains of the synchrophasor data. Utilizing the actual data from FNET/GridEye, different experiments are conducted under multiple attack strengths and types. The results demonstrate that the identification framework has higher precision and robustness compared with other conventional classifiers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Forced Oscillation Source Location in Power Systems Using MVMD-assisted DEF in TF Plane

Fast and accurate forced oscillation source location (FOSL) is critical for mitigating forced oscillations in power systems. Here, to overcome the shortcomings of traditional dissipating energy flow (DEF) in decomposing the forced oscillation components from the measurement responses, a multivariate variational mode decomposition (MVMD)-assisted FOSL is proposed in this paper to locate the forced oscillation sources from measurements in time-frequency (TF) plane. The multi-channel measurement matrix of each generator is formed, then the multi-channel modes are decomposed from the formed multi-channel measurement matrix using the MVMD. Further, the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) associated with the forced oscillation mode are distinguished from the decomposed modes according to the relative energy weights. With the distinguished IMFs, the MVMD-assisted DEF calculation method is developed to locate the forced oscillation source. Finally, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated using the simulation data of the WECC 179-bus test system and IEEE-NASPI Oscillation Source Location Contest as well as the actual PMU data of ISO New England. The results validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method in the FOSL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hybrid Data-Driven Based HVdc Ancillary Control for Multiple Frequency Data Attacks

The high voltage direct current (HVdc) intertie has been applied to provide ancillary-services for ac grids, utilizing the real-time feedback from phasor measurement units (PMUs). However, PMU data communication is vulnerable to false data injection attacks (FDIA) due to protocol defects, thus the HVdc ancillary control and system stability will be threatened. To address this issue, this article proposes a novel HVdc control strategy based on a hybrid data-driven (HDD) methodology. In this work, the HDD methodology is first proposed to detect the types and duration time of multiple frequency attacks. Specifically, the Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) is used to decompose the frequency data, using variational mode decomposition instead of the traditional empirical mode decomposition, to extract data features. Second, a multikernel support vector machine is proposed to classify the attacked data based on the designed distinctive features from HHT. Meanwhile, the attacking duration time is decided using an unsupervised technique. Third, an HDD-based HVdc ancillary control strategy is established to eliminate the effect of FDIAs on the HVdc frequency response. Comprehensive experiments of HDD-based HVdc ancillary controls under different FDIAs suggest that the proposed HDD could fast and accurately classify the FDIAs, and the HDD-based HVdc ancillary control strategy could significantly suppress the impact of the FDIAs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the Existence of Fast Modes in Compressible Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

Abstract We study the existence and properties of fast magnetosonic modes in 3D compressible MHD turbulence by carrying out a number of simulations with compressible and incompressible driving conditions. We use two approaches to determine the presence of fast modes: mode decomposition based on spatial variations only and spatio-temporal 4D fast Fourier transform (4D FFT) analysis of all fluctuations. The latter method enables us to quantify fluctuations that satisfy the dispersion relation of fast modes with finite frequency. Overall, we find that the fraction of fast modes identified via the spatio-temporal 4D FFT approach in total fluctuation power is either tiny with nearly incompressible driving or ∼2% with highly compressible driving. We discuss the implications of our results for understanding the compressible fluctuations in space and astrophysical plasmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamic Mode Decomposition of Random Pressure Fields over Bluff Bodies

Fluctuating surface pressures on a bluff body exposed to a boundary layer flow generally are characterized as a spatiotemporally varying random field. In this paper, a dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) was applied to extract dominant features embedded in these random pressure fields. Utilizing an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, spatial modes and their temporal variations were grouped into different clusters at scales, e.g., macro, meso, and micro. A proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of the experimental data was carried out to observe commonalities and distinctive perspectives each decomposition offers. Here, a comprehensive examination of the DMD/POD for their convergence criteria, data sufficiency, and modal components analysis was conducted. The physical interpretation of the spatiotemporal pressure field based on these decomposition schemes was discussed. At different scales, the DMD modes can capture the evolution of aerodynamic features, e.g., convection of vortices (or vortex tubes) and other structures. The distribution of energy among these three broad scales also reflects an energy cascade in pressure fluctuations akin to turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Estimating Eigenenergies from Quantum Dynamics: A Unified Noise-Resilient Measurement-Driven Approach

Ground state energy estimation in physical, chemical, and materials sciences is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. In this work, we introduce a new hybrid approach that finds the eigenenergies by collecting real-time measurements and post-processing them using the machinery of dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). From the perspective of quantum dynamics, we establish that our approach can be formally understood as a stable variational method on the function space of observables available from a quantum many-body system. We also provide strong theoretical and numerical evidence that our method converges rapidly even in the presence of a large degree of perturbative noise, and show that the method bears an isomorphism to robust matrix factorization methods developed independently across various scientific communities. Our numerical benchmarks on spin and molecular systems demonstrate an accelerated convergence and a favorable resource reduction over state-of-the-art algorithms. The DMD-centric strategy can systematically mitigate noise and stands out as a leading hybrid quantum-classical eigensolver.

Shen, Yizhi↗

On detrending stream velocity time series for robust tidal flow turbulence characterization

We investigated the impact of detrending techniques on turbulence quantities from tidal stream flow data, focusing on the autocorrelation function, $ρ_{uu}$, and velocity spectrum, $Φ(f)$. Standard detrending methods, including high-pass frequency-based and polynomial-based techniques, are examined, alongside a proposed alternative method, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our results highlight that intervals of flow acceleration and deceleration, typical in tidal and riverine flows, significantly affect the estimation of turbulence quantities using high-pass frequency filtering and polynomial detrending of varying orders. These methods can strongly influence $ρ_{uu}$ and $Φ(f)$, thereby affecting the accurate estimation of derived quantities. We examine two variations of detrending data using EMD; the first removes only the EMD residue, and the second removes both the residue and the largest scale intrinsic mode function (IMF). By comparing the detrended spectra with the modeled von Kármán spectra, we demonstrate that the second variation (i.e., removing the residue and the largest scale IMF) successfully removed the large-scale trend of the data while retaining the energy of other scales.

Detrend↗

Eigenmode analysis of the sheared-flow Z-pinch

Experiments have demonstrated that a Z-pinch can persist for thousands of times longer than the growth time of global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities such as the m=0 sausage and m=1 kink modes. These modes have growth times on the order of ta=a/vi, where vi is the ion thermal speed and a is the pinch radius. Axial flows with duz/dr ≲ vi/a have been measured during the stable period, and the commonly accepted theory is that this amount of shear is sufficient to stabilize these modes as predicted by numerical studies using the ideal MHD equations. However, these studies only consider specific equilibrium profiles that typically have a modest magnitude for the logarithmic pressure gradient, qP≡d ln P/d ln r, and may not represent experimental conditions. Linear stability of the sheared-flow Z-pinch is studied here via a direct eigen-decomposition of the matrix operator obtained from the linear ideal MHD equations. Several equilibrium profiles with a large variation of qP are examined. Considering a practical range of k, 1/3 ≲ ka ≲ 10, it is shown that the shear required to stabilize m=0 modes can be expressed as duz/dr≥Cγ0/(ka)α. Here, γ0=γ0(ka) is the profile-specific growth rate in the absence of shear, which scales approximately with |qP|. Both C and α are profile-specific constants, but C is order unity and α≈1. It is further demonstrated that even a large value of shear, duz/dr=3vi/a, is not sufficient to provide linear stabilization of the m=1 kink mode for all profiles considered. This result is in contrast to the currently accepted theory predicting stabilization at much lower shear, duz/dr=0.1vi/a, and suggests that the experimentally observed stability cannot be explained within the linear ideal-MHD model.

Angus, J. R. (ORCID:0000000314740002)↗

Diagnosis of the imploding shell asymmetry in polar-direct-drive deuterium–tritium cryogenic target implosions on OMEGA

We discuss the analyses of gated, x-ray imaging data from polar-direct-drive experiments with cryogenically layered deuterium–tritium targets on the OMEGA laser. The in-flight shell asymmetries were diagnosed at various times during the implosion, which was caused by the beam pointing geometry and preimposed variations in the energy partition between the different groups of laser beams. The shape of the ablation surface during the acceleration phase of the implosion was measured along two different lines of sight, and a Legendre mode (ℓ-mode) decomposition was applied for modes of up to ten to investigate shell asymmetries. A clear causal relationship between the imposed beam imbalance and the shape of the in-flight shell asymmetries was observed. The imploded shell with a balanced energy ratio shows smaller values of the amplitudes of ℓ-mode 2 compared to that from implosions with an imbalanced ring energy ratio. The amplitudes of ℓ-modes 4 and 6 are the same within the measurement uncertainty with respect to the change in beam energy ratio.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Chasing the multi-modal plasma response in MAST-U

Abstract Achieving edge localized modes (ELMs) suppression in spherical tokamaks by applying resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) has proven challenging. The poloidal spectrum of the applied RMP is a key parameter that has an impact on the capability to mitigate and eventually suppress ELMs. In this work the resistive magnetohydrodynamic code MARS-F (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681) is used to evaluate the possibility of directly measuring the plasma response in MAST-U, and particularly its variation as function of the applied poloidal spectrum, in order to guide the experimental validation of the predicted best RMP configuration for ELM suppression. Toroidal mode number n = 2 RMP is considered to minimize the presence of sidebands, and to avoid the deleterious core coupling of n = 1. Singular Value Decomposition is used to highlight linearly independent structures in the simulated magnetic 3D fields and how those structures can be measured at the wall where the magnetic sensors are located. Alternative ways to measure the multimodal plasma response and how they can be used to infer the best RMP configuration to achieve ELM suppression are also presented, including the plasma displacement and the 3D footprints at the divertor plates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗