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At least 19 records

Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix D: Sensitivity analysis resport

Parametric analyses, using a hybrid vehicle synthesis and economics program (HYVELD) are described investigating the sensitivity of hybrid vehicle cost, fuel usage, utility, and marketability to changes in travel statistics, energy costs, vehicle lifetime and maintenance, owner use patterns, internal combustion engine (ICE) reference vehicle fuel economy, and drive-line component costs and type. The lowest initial cost of the hybrid vehicle would be $1200 to $1500 higher than that of the conventional vehicle. For nominal energy costs ($1.00/gal for gasoline and 4.2 cents/kWh for electricity), the ownership cost of the hybrid vehicle is projected to be 0.5 to 1.0 cents/mi less than the conventional ICE vehicle. To attain this ownership cost differential, the lifetime of the hybrid vehicle must be extended to 12 years and its maintenance cost reduced by 25 percent compared with the conventional vehicle. The ownership cost advantage of the hybrid vehicle increases rapidly as the price of fuel increases from $1 to $2/gal.

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New Method for Systems and Cost Analysis of Human Mars Entry Vehicles

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool SAPE (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing). This extension integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several trade spaces of a HIAD (Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator) entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust-to-weight ratio on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.

Friz, Paul D.↗

Design of a Low Cost Avionics System for Launch Vehicles

Marshall Space Flight Center has long been one of the leaders in development of propulsion systems. Due to current launch vehicle costs, Marshall Space Flight Centers (MSFC) Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) office has emphasized the development of low cost launch vehicles. The Bantam launch vehicle is one of the primary programs that has low cost as a requirement. One of the driving factors for a low cost launch vehicle is a low cost avionics system. This paper will summarize MSFC's Astrionics Laboratories efforts in designing a low cost avionics system. MSFC has done Phase A avionics system design and has been working with various contractors on a Phase B preliminary avionics design. Deriving the major requirements, trade studies and cost drivers are some of the topics to be discussed.

Crawford, Kevin↗

Launch vehicle operations cost reduction through artificial intelligence techniques

NASA's Kennedy Space Center has attempted to develop AI methods in order to reduce the cost of launch vehicle ground operations as well as to improve the reliability and safety of such operations. Attention is presently given to cost savings estimates for systems involving launch vehicle firing-room software and hardware real-time diagnostics, as well as the nature of configuration control and the real-time autonomous diagnostics of launch-processing systems by these means. Intelligent launch decisions and intelligent weather forecasting are additional applications of AI being considered.

Davis, Tom C., Jr.↗

Integrated operations/payloads/fleet analysis. Volume 3: System costs. Appendix A: Program direct costs

Individualized program direct costs for each satellite program are presented. This breakdown provides the activity level dependent costs for each satellite program. The activity level dependent costs, or, more simply, program direct costs, are comprised of the total payload costs (as these costs are strictly program dependent) and the direct launch vehicle costs. Only those incremental launch vehicle costs associated directly with the satellite program are considered. For expendable launch vehicles the direct costs include the vehicle investment hardware costs and the launch operations costs. For the reusable STS vehicles the direct costs include only the launch operations, recovery operations, command and control, vehicle maintenance, and propellant support. The costs associated with amortization of reusable vehicle investment, RDT&E range support, etc., are not included.

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Space transportation activities in the United States

The status of the existing space transportation systems in the U.S. and options for increased capability is being examined in the context of mission requirements, options for new vehicles, cost to operate the existing vehicles, cost to develop new vehicles, and the capabilities and plans of other suppliers. This assessment is addressing the need to build and resupply the space station, to maintain necessary military assets in a rapidly changing world, and to continue a competitive commercial space transportation industry. The Department of Defense (DOD) and NASA each conducted an 'access to space' study using a common mission model but with the emphasis on their unique requirements. Both studies considered three options: maintain and improve the existing capability, build a new launch vehicle using contemporary technology, and build a new launch vehicle using advanced technology. While no decisions have been made on a course of action, it will be influenced by the availability of funds in the U.S. budget, the changing need for military space assets, the increasing competition among space launch suppliers, and the emerging opportunity for an advanced technology, low cost system and international partnerships to develop it.

Gabris, Edward A.↗

Expert system decision support for low-cost launch vehicle operations

Progress in assessing the feasibility, benefits, and risks associated with AI expert systems applied to low cost expendable launch vehicle systems is described. Part one identified potential application areas in vehicle operations and on-board functions, assessed measures of cost benefit, and identified key technologies to aid in the implementation of decision support systems in this environment. Part two of the program began the development of prototypes to demonstrate real-time vehicle checkout with controller and diagnostic/analysis intelligent systems and to gather true measures of cost savings vs. conventional software, verification and validation requirements, and maintainability improvement. The main objective of the expert advanced development projects was to provide a robust intelligent system for control/analysis that must be performed within a specified real-time window in order to meet the demands of the given application. The efforts to develop the two prototypes are described. Prime emphasis was on a controller expert system to show real-time performance in a cryogenic propellant loading application and safety validation implementation of this system experimentally, using commercial-off-the-shelf software tools and object oriented programming techniques. This smart ground support equipment prototype is based in C with imbedded expert system rules written in the CLIPS protocol. The relational database, ORACLE, provides non-real-time data support. The second demonstration develops the vehicle/ground intelligent automation concept, from phase one, to show cooperation between multiple expert systems. This automated test conductor (ATC) prototype utilizes a knowledge-bus approach for intelligent information processing by use of virtual sensors and blackboards to solve complex problems. It incorporates distributed processing of real-time data and object-oriented techniques for command, configuration control, and auto-code generation.

Szatkowski, G. P.↗

Artificial intelligent decision support for low-cost launch vehicle integrated mission operations

The feasibility, benefits, and risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI) Expert Systems applied to low cost space expendable launch vehicle systems are reviewed. This study is in support of the joint USAF/NASA effort to define the next generation of a heavy-lift Advanced Launch System (ALS) which will provide economical and routine access to space. The significant technical goals of the ALS program include: a 10 fold reduction in cost per pound to orbit, launch processing in under 3 weeks, and higher reliability and safety standards than current expendables. Knowledge-based system techniques are being explored for the purpose of automating decision support processes in onboard and ground systems for pre-launch checkout and in-flight operations. Issues such as: satisfying real-time requirements, providing safety validation, hardware and Data Base Management System (DBMS) interfacing, system synergistic effects, human interfaces, and ease of maintainability, have an effect on the viability of expert systems as a useful tool.

Szatkowski, Gerard P.↗

Launch Vehicle Production and Operations Cost Metrics

Traditionally, launch vehicle cost has been evaluated based on $/Kg to orbit. This metric is calculated based on assumptions not typically met by a specific mission. These assumptions include the specified orbit whether Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), or both. The metric also assumes the payload utilizes the full lift mass of the launch vehicle, which is rarely true even with secondary payloads.1,2,3 Other approaches for cost metrics have been evaluated including unit cost of the launch vehicle and an approach to consider the full program production and operations costs.4 Unit cost considers the variable cost of the vehicle and the definition of variable costs are discussed. The full program production and operation costs include both the variable costs and the manufacturing base. This metric also distinguishes operations costs from production costs, including pre-flight operational testing. Operations costs also consider the costs of flight operations, including control center operation and maintenance. Each of these 3 cost metrics show different sensitivities to various aspects of launch vehicle cost drivers. The comparison of these metrics provides the strengths and weaknesses of each yielding an assessment useful for cost metric selection for launch vehicle programs.

Watson, Michael D.↗

HiMAT flight program: Test results and program assessment overview

The Highly Manueverable Aircraft Technology (HiMAT) program consisted of design, fabrication of two subscale remotely piloted research vehicles (RPRVs), and flight test. This technical memorandum describes the vehicles and test approach. An overview of the flight test results and comparisons with the design predictions are presented. These comparisons are made on a single-discipline basis, so that aerodynamics, structures, flight controls, and propulsion controls are examined one by one. The interactions between the disciplines are then examined, with the conclusions that the integration of the various technologies contributed to total vehicle performance gains. An assessment is made of the subscale RPRV approach from the standpoint of research data quality and quantity, unmanned effects as compared with manned vehicles, complexity, and cost. It is concluded that the RPRV technique, as adopted in this program, resulted in a more complex and costly vehicle than expected but is reasonable when compared with alternate ways of obtaining comparable results.

Deets, Dwain A.↗

Trade-off between land vehicle antenna cost and gain for satellite mobile communications

Trade-offs between antenna cost and gain made for nine antennas as a feasibility study for the experimental land mobile satellite system, M-SAT(X) reported. This system is under development by JPL-NASA for a mobile telephone system to be used throughout the continental USA and Alaska. The mobile antenna is a key element in the development of this system.

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