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DOE OSTI2023

Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment

Although battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are climate-friendly alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), an important but often ignored fact is that the climate mitigation benefits of BEVs are usually delayed. The manufacture of BEVs is more carbon-intensive than that of ICEVs, leaving a greenhouse gas (GHG) debt to be paid back in the future use phase. Here we analyze millions of vehicle data from the Chinese market and show that the GHG break-even time (GBET) of China’s BEVs ranges from zero (i.e., the production year) to over 11 years, with an average of 4.5 years. 8% of China’s BEVs produced and sold between 2016 and 2018 cannot pay back their GHG debt within the eight-year battery warranty. We suggest enhancing the share of BEVs reaching the GBET by promoting the effective substitution of BEVs for ICEVs instead of the single-minded pursuit of speeding up the BEV deployment race.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating Energy Efficiency Opportunities from Connected and Automated Vehicle Deployments Coupled with Shared Mobility in California

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can be considered to be a disruptive transportation technology, with the potential to significantly improve overall transportation system efficiency; however, CAVs may increase induce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and bring on greater energy consumption. Further, shared mobility is another disruptive transportation event that is reshaping our travel patterns. The primary goal of this project was to extensively collect data from vehicles and associated infrastructure equipped with CAV technologies from both real-world experiments and simulation studies mainly deployed in California, and develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating energy efficiency opportunities from large-scale (e.g., statewide) introduction of CAVs and a wide deployment of shared mobility systems in a variety of scenarios. To quantify the combined impact of CAV and shared mobility on travel behavior, traffic performance, and energy efficiency, a unique mesoscopic simulation-based model was developed for mobility and energy efficiency evaluation considering these disruptive transportation technologies. As a complement to existing studies on nationwide evaluation of CAVs’ energy impacts, this project was focused on data collection efforts and CAV applications under congested traffic environments that are frequently experienced on a massive scale across the major metropolitan areas in California. Extensive real-world data collection supplemented with simulation studies were conducted to cover a variety of CAV and shared mobility scenarios, particularly on scenarios less-explored in the existing research. Another key component of this project was to consider the interaction between different CAV technologies and shared mobility models, and the compound effect on energy efficiency. A comprehensive modeling suite was developed to quantify the impact of new mobility technologies on travel behavior and traffic performance. The developed modeling framework includes an energy intensity module, mode choice module and activity generation module that are integrated into an agent-based BEAM simulation platform to perform impact analysis based on a variety of scenarios. In addition, the RouteE model has been upgraded to incorporate the impact of CAVs on traffic flow, VMT and energy intensity, using micro-simulation data collected from both freeways and urban arterials. A novel fundamental influencing factor (FIF) mode choice model was developed to link CAV and shared mobility components with travel behaviors, and adapted into the BEAM-centered model framework. A statewide energy inventory was constructed under various CAV technology deployment scenarios by incorporating datasets and models for predicting vehicle market share and vehicle usage, which are tightly associated with the penetration of shared mobility systems. Based applying this modeling suite to a calibrated network in Riverside California, it was found that cooperative automated driving in general will improve mobility, but automated vehicles, even when deployed in a shared autonomous fleet, will likely bring an increase of VMT (up to 36%) due to mode shifts and deadheading. Ride-hailing vehicles typically have better energy efficiency and a higher share of electric vehicles, which helps offset the negative impact from VMT increases when estimating the system-level energy consumption. In general, simulation results show a 6% increase in energy consumption for the scenarios with an increasing shift to ride-hailing modes. The statewide analysis based on the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) sample data is consistent with the findings from the Riverside network and validate the developed clustering-prediction modeling methodology. The outcomes from this project will help close the knowledge gap on recognizing the potential performance and energy impacts of a broad deployment of CAV and shared mobility technologies across a wide range of roadway infrastructure with varying levels of congestion. Results from this project: 1) will support policymakers in steering CAV development and deployment towards an energy favorable direction; 2) reduce uncertainties in estimating energy saving opportunities from new mobility technologies and services; 3) increase the confidence of CAV technology investors both on the infrastructure side (i.e., transportation agencies) and on the vehicle side (i.e., OEMs); and 4) expedite the deployment of energy-efficient CAV and shared mobility applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Building Blocks of Electric Vehicle Deployment: A Guide for Developing Countries

Countries can use electric transportation to help fulfill numerous goals, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets, local air quality goals, mobility objectives, energy security, and transportation resiliency. Vehicle electrification is a promising pathway to achieving clean energy transitions in the transport sector at scale. As vehicles electrify, the traditionally siloed electricity and transport sectors increasingly converge to create technical, institutional, and economic opportunities and challenges. To navigate this transition effectively, we propose the following foundational pillars or “building blocks” that undergird effective electric vehicle (EV) deployment. Jurisdictions with experience and mature EV markets offer useful lessons learned that may enable developing countries to leapfrog over common roadblocks. Nonetheless, developing countries face distinct challenges collectively, and individually, from developed countries that require careful consideration. From our work around the world, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have witnessed interest growing in EVs for a variety of reasons. Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), for example, looks toward EVs as a way to use their surplus of hydropower to displace expensive oil. Thailand and Pakistan seek economic development opportunities in EV manufacturing. Cities including Mexico City, Surat, India, and Kingston, Jamaica see the potential of bus electrification to improve local air quality and reduce traffic congestion. Many USAID partner countries in Southeast Asia are trying to understand how to reach ambitious EV deployment targets and implement EV and transportation plans. This pursuit is prompting questions about EV supply equipment (EVSE) standards, tariff design, and business models that affirm the importance of the building blocks outlined in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

AutonomieAI: An efficient and deployable vehicle energy consumption estimation toolkit

Here, this paper presents AutonomieAI, a novel toolkit designed for efficient energy estimation of vehicles across diverse trip scenarios, routes, and drive cycles, applicable to a broad range of vehicle powertrain technologies. It leverages state-of-the-art Machine Learning techniques to deliver real-time energy prediction of vehicles, enabling co-simulation with transportation level system tools and opening doors for large-scale optimization at city, network or national level. Benchmark results show that AutonomieAI achieves high accuracy, with an average percentage error below 2% for most powertrain types, and computational efficiency capable of processing over 10,000 trips per second. Applications of AutonomieAI have potential to offer the flexibility to assist in solving eco-routing problems, optimize for vehicle and powertrain selection, study charging decision behavior, and optimize for charging station placement. AutonomieAI is the result of large neural network based model architectures, trained on very large and unique high fidelity vehicle simulation data. It is lightweight, deployable, efficient and has accuracy comparable to specialized and complex physics based simulation softwares.

Autonomie↗

DOE OSTI2022

Michigan Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Deployment Plan: H2 FCEV Roadmap 2022

This report describes a roadmap for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in the state of Michigan. This plan provides links to relevant information to assess, plan, and initiate hydrogen and FCEV deployment to help meet the energy, economic, and environmental goals for the State of Michigan. Policies and incentives that support hydrogen and fuel cell technology will increase deployment, thus increasing production and creating jobs throughout the supply chain. As deployment increases, an economy of scale will develop and manufacturing costs will decline, positioning hydrogen and fuel cell technology to compete more effectively in a global market without incentives. Policies and incentives to purchase and support the deployment of FCEVs, FCEBs, and hydrogen refueling can be coordinated regionally to maintain this advanced clean transportation sector as a global exporter for long-term growth and economic development. Overall, the execution of this plan will maintain Michigan's role as a global showcase for regionally manufactured transportation technology while reducing NOx and CO 2 emissions and as new jobs are created for businesses and industry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pilot Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Deployment for Anchorage, Alaska, Municipal Solid Waste Collection

Through a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Municipality of Anchorage initiated a pilot program in their Solid Waste Services (SWS) department to add heavy-duty electric trucks to its vehicle fleet. The project involves the purchase and deployment of a Peterbilt 220EV electric box truck and two Peterbilt 520EV heavy-duty electric refuse trucks. The Alaska Center for Energy and Power at the University of Alaska Fairbanks performed data analysis. Data collected include telemetry data from both types of electric trucks, charging data from the 520EV telemetry data and a Level 2 charger, and facility-level electric use data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pilot Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Deployment for Anchorage, Alaska, Municipal Solid Waste Collection

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Renewable Hydrogen to Vehicle (RH2V) – Operation Verification and Risk Mitigation Studies: Original Agreement (Modification 0) (CRADA Final Report)

Toyota has announced plans for commercial fuel cell vehicle deployment in 2015. To fully realize the benefits of fuel cell vehicles (zero emission with no performance loss in terms of vehicle range and capability), hydrogen produced efficiently from renewable sources is necessary. Most of the hydrogen fueling stations today utilize hydrogen reformed from natural gas (produced onsite or delivered). This enables more stations to be deployed cost-effectively within a network. Producing and using cost-effective renewable hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles will enable realization of the full potential. A viable option of green hydrogen that reliably delivers on the full suite of benefits for Toyota fuel cell vehicle drivers is needed. NREL is in a unique position to analyze and optimize renewable hydrogen production scenarios using the Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF), a facility that is specifically designed to evaluate renewable energy integration technologies. As the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) primary national laboratory for renewable energy and energy efficiency research and development, NREL has extensive knowledge of photovoltaic systems as well as alternative renewable technologies for efficient and reliable production of green hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

FY2020 Technology Integration Annual Progress Report

The 2020 Technology Integration Annual Progress Report covers 46 multi-year projects funded by the Vehicle Technologies Office. The report includes information on competitively awarded projects, ranging from rural shared mobility demonstration projects to medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle deployment to statewide alternative fuel resiliency planning. It also includes projects conducted by several of the Vehicle Technologies Office’s (VTO) National Laboratory partners, Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. These projects range from a Technical Assistance project for business, industry, government and individuals, to the EcoCar Advanced Vehicle Technology Competition, and the Fuel Economy Information Project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Direct Recycling R&D at the ReCell Center

The expected rapid growth in electric vehicle deployment will inevitably be followed by a corresponding rise in the supply of end-of-life vehicles and their lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The batteries may be reused, but will eventually be spent and provide a potential domestic resource that can help supply materials for future battery production. However, commercial recycling processes depend on profits from recovery of cobalt, use of which is being reduced in new cathode chemistries. The U.S. Department of Energy, therefore, established the ReCell Center in early 2019 to develop robust LIB recycling technology that would be economical even for batteries that contain no cobalt. The central feature of the technology is recovery of the cathode material with its unique crystalline cathode morphology intact in order to retain its value and functionality. Other materials are recovered as well in order to maximize revenues and minimize waste-handling costs. Analysis and modeling serve to evaluate and compare process options so that we can identify those that will be most economical while still minimizing energy use and environmental impacts. This paper provides background and describes highlights of the center’s first 2 years of operation.

Gaines, Linda (ORCID:0000000237263387)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread electric vehicle deployment with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those earlier works by leveraging detailed simulation models for electric vehicle adoption, electric vehicle use, electric vehicle charging, and bulk power system operations; and linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This study closely analyzes electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) performance along the dimensions of flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and participation rate, under the assumptions of ubiquitous chargers and all trips completed on time. The study is located in a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, and in an envisioned 2038 New England power system for which within-region generation is 84% clean.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

OR-AGENT framework – Architecting electrified heavy-duty drayage applications

The widespread adoption of zero-emission vehicles in heavy-duty (HD) commercial freight transportation faces considerable technoeconomic challenges. For heavy-duty trucks, ensuring high uptime, cost parity with diesel, and safety standards is especially critical as these vehicles operate over long distances with heavy loads, where any downtime or off-nominal behaviors significantly impacts logistics, productivity, and the total cost of ownership. Unlike traditional diesel refueling, BEV charging infrastructure must be co-optimized with vehicle deployment, operational demands, and grid capacity to ensure cost-effective and reliable freight operations. However, the lack of a standardized ownership and service model has led to a fragmented approach—where commercial vehicle operators may invest in, own, and maintain both vehicle/batteries and charging/energy infrastructure. This disconnect may exclude energy service providers from the equation, forcing fleet operators to explore ‘behind-the-fence’ energy solutions that increase capital investment, operational downtime, overhead costs, and, in some cases, net carbon emissions. To address these issues, this study introduces OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport), a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates powertrain architectures, charging infrastructures, and energy backbone systems into a cohesive strategy. In this paper, OR-AGENT is applied to develop an interconnected systems architecture for energy efficiency and resiliency enhancement of heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. This framework showcases an interconnected systems approach to electrifying heavy-duty drayage vehicles at the Port of Savannah, GA. The study assessed BEVs with 400–1200 kWh battery capacities, accounting for seasonal variations in weather and freight routing. A diverse charging mix (150 kW–1250 kW) was evaluated alongside grid capacity constraints, cost, and carbon intensity analysis, leading to the development of a strategic microgrid/Distributed Energy Resources (DER) deployment architecture to ensure a reliable and sustainable transition. However, the findings also highlight the need for alternative zero-emission solutions for remaining trips, such as larger batteries, electrified roadways, hydrogen powertrains, or net-zero emission fuels. In conclusion, the findings are incorporated into a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model to identify optimal architectures for an interconnected electrified ecosystem.

Commercial vehicles↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling, Monitoring, and Controlling Road Traffic Using Vehicles to Sense and Act

This review offers a comprehensive overview of current traffic modeling, estimation, and control methods, along with resulting field experiments. It highlights key developments and future directions in leveraging technological advancements to improve traffic management and safety. Here, the focus is on macroscopic, microscopic, and micro-macro models, as well as state-of-the-art control techniques and estimation methods for deploying vehicles in traffic field experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Towards Secure Autonomous Vehicles: An Integrated Edge and Multi-Modal Machine Learning Framework for Intrusion Detection

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are vulnerable to cyberattacks targeting both internal communication networks and external perception sensors. While edge-based intrusion de- tection for Controller Area Network (CAN) buses offers real-time protection, it cannot detect cross-modal threats. Conversely, multi-modal fusion approaches improve coverage but often lack efficiency for in-vehicle deployment. This thesis integrates two complemen- tary solutions: (1) a lightweight, edge-deployable machine learning framework for CAN bus intrusion detection, and (2) a late-fusion system combining CAN FD and LiDAR data. Together, they form a hierarchical defense capable of handling single-modality and coordi- nated attacks. Simulations show that CAN-only models reach 93% accuracy on simulated DoS, spoofing, replay, and fuzzy attacks, while the fusion system achieves 0.87 AUC and 0.82 F1-score at 2 ms latency. This unified framework establishes a scalable, explainable, and field-ready strategy for AV cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Airport Ground Support Equipment Analysis

Ground support equipment (GSE) plays a critical role in providing services to aircraft at arrival and departure gates, ensuring smooth and efficient airport operations. As the airline industry seeks to reduce costs and expand energy options, electric GSE (eGSE) is emerging as a promising solution. This project examines the integration of eGSE into airport operations, addressing key considerations such as vehicle deployment, charging infrastructure, and grid impacts. We developed a flexible, bottom-up modeling framework to evaluate energy demands and infrastructure requirements across more than 300 U.S. airports, providing actionable insights to support electrification planning and implementation. The study focuses on eight major types of GSE with commercially available electric counterparts: aircraft tractors, ground power units, baggage tractors, belt loaders, cargo loaders, catering trucks, lavatory trucks, and water trucks. Project results include annual charging load profiles, total energy consumption, and the charger and fleet requirements for each airport.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutronic Performance of a Compact 10 MWe Nuclear Reactor with Low Enrichment (ThxU1−x)N Fuel

Abstract Recent interest in compact nuclear reactors for applications in space or in remote locations drives innovation in nuclear fuel design, especially non-oxide ceramic nuclear fuels. This work details neutronic modeling designed to support the development of a new nuclear fuel concept based on a mixture of thorium and uranium nitride. A Monte Carlo N-Particle Version 6.2 (MCNP-6) model of a compact 10 MWe reactor design which incorporates (Th x U 1− x )N fuel is presented. In this context, a “compact” reactor is a completely assembled reactor which may be emptied of coolant and transported by specialized commercial vehicle, deployed by a C130J aircraft, or launched into space. Core geometry, reflector barrels, and the heat exchange zones are designed to support reduction of overall reactor volume of core components while maintaining criticality with a fixed total fuel mass of 4500 kg. Dense mixed nitrides of thorium nitride (ThN) additions in uranium nitride (UN) in 5 wt.% increments between $$0.05 \le x \le 0.5$$ 0.05 ≤ x ≤ 0.5 have been considered for calculation of $$k_{\infty }$$ k ∞ and $$k_{{{\text{effective}}}}$$ k effective . ThN additions in UN results in a slight increase in the magnitude of the temperature coefficient of reactivity, which is negative by design. The isotopic distribution of the principal actinide inventory as a function of burnup, time, and initial fuel composition is presented and discussed within the context of the proliferation risk of this core design.

Parker, S. S. (ORCID:000000018597440X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy, power, and infrastructure demands from electrifying airport ground support equipment at United States airports

As the airline industry seeks to reduce costs and transition to clean energy, electric ground support equipment is emerging as a favorable option. The integration of electric ground support equipment into airport operations requires careful planning for vehicle deployment, charging infrastructure, and grid impacts. We develop a flexible, bottom-up modeling framework to assess energy and infrastructure needs across more than 300 U.S. airports. Our analysis estimates site-specific power and energy demand, equipment counts by type, charger requirements, and costs. Here we quantify the magnitude of new electrical loads created by the electrification of airport ground support equipment, finding that peak power demand at the largest airports can reach up to 20 megawatts, with annual electricity consumption approaching 51,000 megawatt-hours. We further show that behind-the-meter battery energy storage systems and solar photovoltaic systems can reduce peak load and lower total system costs by as much as 10 million dollars.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗