SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “viral dynamics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parsimonious models of in-host viral dynamics and immune response

Mathematical models of in-host viral dynamics and immune response are a vital tool for patient-specific estimation of the initial viral load, prediction of the course of an infection, etc. The COVID-19 pandemics has given impetus to the development of models with an ever-increasing degree of complexity. We show that one of the most popular models---the Target Cell Limited model---fails the identifiability test, i.e., its parameters cannot be uniquely inferred from readily available data such as viral load measurements. Here, we present a model that is both identifiable and parsimonious according to information criteria. Our model's predictions match both reported observations of COVID-19 patients and predictions of its more complex counterparts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The reproduction number and its probability distribution for stochastic viral dynamics

We consider stochastic models of individual infected cells. The reproduction number, R, is understood as a random variable representing the number of new cells infected by one initial infected cell in an otherwise susceptible (target cell) population. Variability in R results partly from heterogeneity in the viral burst size (the number of viral progeny generated from an infected cell during its lifetime), which depends on the distribution of cellular lifetimes and on the mechanism of virion release. We analyse viral dynamics models with an eclipse phase: the period of time after a cell is infected but before it is capable of releasing virions. The duration of the eclipse, or the subsequent infectious, phase is non-exponential, but composed of stages. We derive the probability distribution of the reproduction number for these viral dynamics models, and show it is a negative binomial distribution in the case of constant viral release from infectious cells, and under the assumption of an excess of target cells. In a deterministic model, the ultimate in-host establishment or extinction of the viral infection depends entirely on whether the mean reproduction number is greater than, or less than, one, respectively. Here, the probability of extinction is determined by the probability distribution of R, not simply its mean value. In particular, we show that in some cases the probability of infection is not an increasing function of the mean reproduction number.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Viral Dynamic Models During COVID‐19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling dynamics of acute HIV infection incorporating density-dependent cell death and multiplicity of infection

Understanding the dynamics of acute HIV infection can offer valuable insights into the early stages of viral behavior, potentially helping uncover various aspects of HIV pathogenesis. The standard viral dynamics model explains HIV viral dynamics during acute infection reasonably well. However, the model makes simplifying assumptions, neglecting some aspects of HIV infection. For instance, in the standard model, target cells are infected by a single HIV virion. Yet, cellular multiplicity of infection (MOI) may have considerable effects in pathogenesis and viral evolution. Further, when using the standard model, we take constant infected cell death rates, simplifying the dynamic immune responses. Here, we use four models—1) the standard viral dynamics model, 2) an alternate model incorporating cellular MOI, 3) a model assuming density-dependent death rate of infected cells and 4) a model combining (2) and (3)—to investigate acute infection dynamics in 43 people living with HIV very early after HIV exposure. We find that all models qualitatively describe the data, but none of the tested models is by itself the best to capture different kinds of heterogeneity. Instead, different models describe differing features of the dynamics more accurately. For example, while the standard viral dynamics model may be the most parsimonious across study participants by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), we find that viral peaks are better explained by a model allowing for cellular MOI, using a linear regression analysis as analyzed by R 2 . These results suggest that heterogeneity in within-host viral dynamics cannot be captured by a single model. Depending on the specific aspect of interest, a corresponding model should be employed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatial and temporal metagenomics of river compartments reveals viral community dynamics in an urban impacted stream

Although river ecosystems constitute a small fraction of Earth’s total area, they are critical modulators of microbially and virally orchestrated global biogeochemical cycles. However, most studies either use data that is not spatially resolved or is collected at timepoints that do not reflect the short life cycles of microorganisms. To address this gap, we assessed how viral and microbial communities change over a 48-hour period by sampling surface water and pore water compartments of the wastewater-impacted River Erpe in Germany. We sampled every 3 hours resulting in 32 samples for which we obtained metagenomes along with geochemical and metabolite measurements. From our metagenomes, we identified 6,500 viral and 1,033 microbial metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) and found distinct community membership and abundance associated with each river compartment (e.g., Competibacteraceae in surfacewater and Sulfurimonadaceae in pore water). We show that 17% of our viral MAGs clustered to viruses from other ecosystems like wastewater treatment plants and rivers. Our results also indicated that 70% of the viral community was persistent in surface waters, whereas only 13% were persistent in the pore waters taken from the hyporheic zone. Finally, we predicted linkages between 73 viral genomes and 38 microbial genomes. These putatively linked hosts included members of the Competibacteraceae, which we suggest are potential contributors to river carbon and nitrogen cycling via denitrification and nitrogen fixation. Together, these findings demonstrate that members of the surface water microbiome from this urban river are stable over multiple diurnal cycles. These temporal insights raise important considerations for ecosystem models attempting to constrain dynamics of river biogeochemical cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

CD8 + T cells control SIV infection using both cytolytic effects and non-cytolytic suppression of virus production

Whether CD8 + T lymphocytes control human immunodeficiency virus infection by cytopathic or non-cytopathic mechanisms is not fully understood. Multiple studies highlighted non-cytopathic effects, but one hypothesis is that cytopathic effects of CD8 + T cells occur before viral production. Here, to examine the role of CD8 + T cells prior to virus production, we treated SIVmac251-infected macaques with an integrase inhibitor combined with a CD8-depleting antibody, or with either reagent alone. We analyzed the ensuing viral dynamics using a mathematical model that included infected cells pre- and post- viral DNA integration to compare different immune effector mechanisms. Macaques receiving the integrase inhibitor alone experienced greater viral load decays, reaching lower nadirs on treatment, than those treated also with the CD8 - depleting antibody. Models including CD8 + cell-mediated reduction of viral production (non-cytolytic) were found to best explain the viral profiles across all macaques, in addition an effect in killing infected cells pre-integration (cytolytic) was supported in some of the best models. Our results suggest that CD8 + T cells have both a cytolytic effect on infected cells before viral integration, and a direct, non-cytolytic effect by suppressing viral production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Longitudinal Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections Reveals Limited Infectious Virus Shedding and Restricted Tissue Distribution

Background. The global effort to vaccinate people against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during an ongoing pandemic has raised questions about how vaccine breakthrough infections compare with infections in immunologically naive individuals and the potential for vaccinated individuals to transmit the virus. Methods. We examined viral dynamics and infectious virus shedding through daily longitudinal sampling in 23 adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 at varying stages of vaccination, including 6 fully vaccinated individuals. Results. The durations of both infectious virus shedding and symptoms were significantly reduced in vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals. We also observed that breakthrough infections are associated with strong tissue compartmentalization and are only detectable in saliva in some cases. Conclusions. Vaccination shortens the duration of time of high transmission potential, minimizes symptom duration, and may restrict tissue dissemination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Within-Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Case Study in Ferrets

The pre-clinical development of antiviral agents involves experimental trials in animals and ferrets as an animal model for the study of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we used mathematical models and experimental data to characterize the within-host infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in ferrets. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis of model parameters impacting the characteristics of the viral infection. We provide estimates of the viral dynamic parameters in ferrets, such as the infection rate, the virus production rate, the infectious virus proportion, the infected cell death rate, the virus clearance rate, as well as other related characteristics, including the basic reproduction number, pre-peak infectious viral growth rate, post-peak infectious viral decay rate, pre-peak infectious viral doubling time, post-peak infectious virus half-life, and the target cell loss in the respiratory tract. These parameters and indices are not significantly different between animals infected with viral strains isolated from the environment and isolated from human hosts, indicating a potential for transmission from fomites. While the infection period in ferrets is relatively short, the similarity observed between our results and previous results in humans supports that ferrets can be an appropriate animal model for SARS-CoV-2 dynamics-related studies, and our estimates provide helpful information for such studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person’s infectiousness

Significance Quantifying the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and individual infectiousness is important for understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evaluating intervention strategies. Here, we developed within-host models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and by fitting them to clinical data, we estimated key within-host viral dynamic parameters. We also developed a mechanistic model for viral transmission and show that the logarithm of the viral load in the upper respiratory tract serves as an appropriate surrogate for a person’s infectiousness. Using data on how viral load changes during infection, we further evaluated the effectiveness of PCR and antigen-based testing strategies for averting transmission and identifying infected individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unified model of short- and long-term HIV viral rebound for clinical trial planning

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Typically suspension of therapy is rapidly followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. Indeed, a recent study showed that approximately 90% of treatment interruption study participants show viral rebound within at most a few months of therapy suspension, but the remaining 10%, showed viral rebound some months, or years, after ART suspension. Some may even never rebound. We investigate and compare branching process models aimed at gaining insight into these viral dynamics. Specifically, we provide a theory that explains both short- and long-term viral rebounds, and post-treatment control, via a multitype branching process with time-inhomogeneous rates, validated with data from Li et al. We discuss the associated biological interpretation and implications of our best-fit model. To test the effectiveness of an experimental intervention in delaying or preventing rebound, the standard practice is to suspend therapy and monitor the study participants for rebound. We close with a discussion of an important application of our modelling in the design of such clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Genomics discovery of giant fungal viruses from subsurface oceanic crustal fluids

Abstract The oceanic igneous crust is a vast reservoir for microbial life, dominated by diverse and active bacteria, archaea, and fungi. Archaeal and bacterial viruses were previously detected in oceanic crustal fluids at the Juan de Fuca Ridge (JdFR). Here we report the discovery of two eukaryotic Nucleocytoviricota genomes from the same crustal fluids by sorting and sequencing single virions. Both genomes have a tRNATyr gene with an intron (20 bps) at the canonical position between nucleotide 37 and 38, a common feature in eukaryotic and archaeal tRNA genes with short introns (<100 bps), and fungal genes acquired through horizontal gene transfer (HGT) events. The dominance of Ascomycota fungi as the main eukaryotes in crustal fluids and the evidence for HGT point to these fungi as the putative hosts, making these the first putative fungi-Nucleocytoviricota specific association. Our study suggests active host-viral dynamics for the only eukaryotic group found in the subsurface oceanic crust and raises important questions about the impact of viral infection on the productivity and biogeochemical cycling in this ecosystem.

Bhattacharjee, Ananda S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicted success of prophylactic antiviral therapy to block or delay SARS-CoV-2 infection depends on the drug's mechanism of action

Repurposed drugs that are safe and immediately available constitute a first line of defense against new viral infections. Despite limited antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, several drugs are being tested as medication or as prophylaxis to prevent infection. Using a stochastic model of early phase infection, we evaluate the success of prophylactic treatment with different drug types to prevent viral infection. We find that there exists a critical efficacy that a treatment must reach in order to block viral establishment. Treatment by a combination of drugs reduces the critical efficacy, most effectively by the combination of a drug blocking viral entry into cells and a drug increasing viral clearance. Below the critical efficacy, the risk of infection can nonetheless be reduced. Drugs blocking viral entry into cells or enhancing viral clearance reduce the risk of infection more than drugs that reduce viral production in infected cells. The larger the initial inoculum of infectious virus, the less likely is prevention of an infection. In our model, we find that as long as the viral inoculum is smaller than 10 infectious virus particles, viral infection can be prevented almost certainly with drugs of 90% efficacy (or more). Even when a viral infection cannot be prevented, antivirals delay the time to detectable viral loads. The largest delay of viral infection is achieved by drugs reducing viral production in infected cells. A delay of virus infection flattens the within-host viral dynamic curve, possibly reducing transmission and symptom severity. Thus, antiviral prophylaxis, even with reduced efficacy, could be efficiently used to prevent or alleviate infection in people at high risk.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

ER stress and viral defense: Advances and future perspectives on plant unfolded protein response in pathogenesis

Viral infections pose significant threats to crop productivity and agricultural sustainability. The frequency and severity of these infections are increasing, and pathogens are evolving rapidly under the influence of climate change. This underscores the importance of exploring the fundamental mechanisms by which plants defend themselves against dynamic viral threats. One such mechanism is the unfolded protein response (UPR), which is activated when the protein folding demand exceeds the capacity of the endoplasmic reticulum, particularly under adverse environmental conditions. While the key regulators of the UPR in response to viral infections have been identified, our understanding of how they modulate the UPR to suppress plant viral infections at the molecular and genetic levels is still in its infancy. Recent findings have shown that, in response to plant viral infections, the UPR swiftly reprograms transcriptional changes to support cellular, metabolic, and physiological processes associated with cell viability. However, the underlying mechanisms and functional outcomes of these changes remain largely unexplored. Here, we highlight recent advances in plant UPR research and summarize key findings related to viral infection–induced UPR, focusing on the balance between prosurvival and prodeath strategies. We also discuss the potential of systems-level approaches to uncover the full extent of the functional link between the UPR and plant responses to viral infections.

ER stress↗

DOE OSTI2021

CD8 Lymphocyte Depletion Enhances the Latency Reversal Activity of the SMAC Mimetic AZD5582 in ART-Suppressed Simian Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Rhesus Macaques

ABSTRACT Inducing latency reversal to reveal infected cells to the host immune system represents a potential strategy to cure human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. In separate studies, we have shown previously that CD8 + T cells may contribute to the maintenance of viral latency and have identified a novel SMAC (second mitochondrial activator of caspases) mimetic/IAP (inhibitor of apoptosis protein) inhibitor (AZD5582) capable of reversing HIV/simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) latency in vivo by activating the noncanonical (nc) NF-κB pathway. Here, we use AZD5582 in combination with antibody (Ab)-mediated depletion of CD8α + cells to further evaluate the role of CD8 + T cells in the maintenance of viral latency. Six rhesus macaques (RMs) were infected with SIV mac239 and treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) starting at week 8 postinfection. After 84 to 85 weeks of ART, all animals received a single dose of the anti-CD8α depleting Ab MT807R1 (50 mg/kg of body weight, administered subcutaneously [s.c.]), followed by five weekly doses of AZD5582 (0.1 mg/kg, administered intravenously [i.v.]). Following combined treatment with CD8α depletion and AZD5582, 100% of RMs experienced on-ART viremia levels above 60 copies per ml of plasma. In comparator groups of SIV-infected, ART-suppressed RMs treated with AZD5582 only or CD8α depletion only, on-ART viremia was experienced by 56% and 57% of the animals, respectively. Furthermore, the increased frequency of viremic episodes during the treatment period was greater in the group treated with CD8α depletion plus AZD5582 than in the other groups. Mathematical modeling of virus reactivation suggested that in addition to viral dynamics during acute infection, CD8α depletion influenced the response to AZD5582. This work suggests that the latency reversal induced by activation of the ncNF-κB signaling pathway with AZD5582 can be enhanced by CD8α + cell depletion. IMPORTANCE A favored approach to curing HIV infection aims at inducing viral expression using latency-reversing agents (LRAs) to allow the elimination of infected cells. Here, we tested a combination of two recently identified LRAs, the SMAC mimetic/IAP inhibitor AZD5582, which activates the noncanonical NF-κB pathway, and the antibody (Ab) MT807R1, which depletes CD8α + cells, in SIV-infected rhesus macaques (RMs) on ART. Latency reversal, as defined by increased on-ART viremia, was observed in all six SIV-infected, ART-treated RMs that received this combined treatment. Furthermore, comparison of viral reactivation between these animals and groups of SIV-infected, ART-treated RMs treated with AZD5582 only or CD8α + cell depletion only showed more frequent increases in viremic episodes when the two treatments were combined. This study provides additional evidence that CD8 + T cells may contribute to the maintenance of HIV/SIV latency on ART and potentially inhibit latency reversal during HIV cure approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Zika virus dynamics: Effects of inoculum dose, the innate immune response and viral interference

Experimental Zika virus infection in non-human primates results in acute viral load dynamics that can be well-described by mathematical models. The inoculum dose that would be received in a natural infection setting is likely lower than the experimental infections and how this difference affects the viral dynamics and immune response is unclear. Here we study a dataset of experimental infection of non-human primates with a range of doses of Zika virus. We develop new models of infection incorporating both an innate immune response and viral interference with that response. We find that such a model explains the data better than models with no interaction between virus and the immune response. We also find that larger inoculum doses lead to faster dynamics of infection, but approximately the same total amount of viral production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Host population diversity as a driver of viral infection cycle in wild populations of green sulfur bacteria with long standing virus-host interactions

Abstract Temperate phages are viruses of bacteria that can establish two types of infection: a lysogenic infection in which the virus replicates with the host cell without producing virions, and a lytic infection where the host cell is eventually destroyed, and new virions are released. While both lytic and lysogenic infections are routinely observed in the environment, the ecological and evolutionary processes regulating these viral dynamics are still not well understood, especially for uncultivated virus-host pairs. Here, we characterized the long-term dynamics of uncultivated viruses infecting green sulfur bacteria (GSB) in a model freshwater lake (Trout Bog Lake, TBL). As no GSB virus has been formally described yet, we first used two complementary approaches to identify new GSB viruses from TBL; one in vitro based on flow cytometry cell sorting, the other in silico based on CRISPR spacer sequences. We then took advantage of existing TBL metagenomes covering the 2005–2018 period to examine the interactions between GSB and their viruses across years and seasons. From our data, GSB populations in TBL were constantly associated with at least 2-8 viruses each, including both lytic and temperate phages. The dominant GSB population in particular was consistently associated with two prophages with a nearly 100% infection rate for >10 years. We illustrate with a theoretical model that such an interaction can be stable given a low, but persistent, level of prophage induction in low-diversity host populations. Overall, our data suggest that lytic and lysogenic viruses can readily co-infect the same host population, and that host strain-level diversity might be an important factor controlling virus-host dynamics including lytic/lysogeny switch.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗