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At least 19 records

The coronavirus spread: the Italian case

A model based on population growth, chaotic maps and turbulent flows is applied to the spread of Coronavirus for each Italian region in order to obtain useful information and help to contrast it. We divide the regions into different risk categories and discuss anomalies. The worst cases are confined between the Appenine and the Alps mountain ranges but the situation seem to improve closer to the sea. The Veneto region gave the most efficient response so far and some of their resources could be diverted to other regions, in particular more tests to the Lombardia, Liguria, Piemonte, Marche and V. Aosta regions, which seem to be worst affected. We noticed worrying anomalies in the Lazio, Campania and Sicilia regions to be monitored. We stress that the number of fatalities we predicted on March 12 has been confirmed daily by the bulletins. This suggests a change of strategy in order to reduce such number maybe moving the weaker population (and negative to the virus test) to beach resorts, which should be empty presently. The ratio deceased/positives on April 4, 2020 is 5.4% worldwide, 12.3% in Italy, 1.4% in Germany, 2.7% in the USA, 10.3% in the UK and 4.1% in China. Furthermore, these large fluctuations should be investigated starting from the Italian regions, which show similar large fluctuations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Small molecule inhibitors for treatment of alpha viruses

An in vitro assay was designed to measure the activity of the alphavirus non-structural protein 2 (nsP2), which is the viral protease and is required for viral replication. By taking advantage of fluorescence-resonance energy transfer between two proteins, a protease cleavage assay was generated. This was utilized for high-throughput screening of 40,000 small molecules. Inhibitors were validated using cell-based assays to measure alphavirus infection and cytotoxicity. Certain compounds were then characterized for anti-viral efficacy in various cell lines in numerous assays. Compounds were tested against Chikungunya virus, Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis virus, Rift Valley Fever virus, and Zika virus. Three compounds (compounds I, II, and III) showed pan-alphavirus anti-viral efficacy at concentrations that did not result in cell toxicity. An additional compound, structure IV, showed broad spectrum inhibition of all viruses tested. Pharmaceutical preparations and methods of treatment including these compounds are provided herein.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Seroprevalence of Brucella spp. and Rift Valley fever virus among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County, northern Kenya

Brucella spp. and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) are classified as priority zoonotic agents in Kenya, based on their public health and socioeconomic impact on the country. Data on the pathogen-specific and co-exposure levels is scarce due to limited active surveillance. This study investigated seroprevalence and co-exposure of Brucella spp. and RVFV and associated risk factors among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County, northern Kenya. A cross-sectional serosurvey was done in all 19 slaughterhouses in Isiolo County, enrolling 378 participants into the study. The overall seroprevalences for Brucella spp. and RVFV were 40.2% (95% CI: 35.2–45.4) and 18.3% (95% CI: 14.5–22.5), respectively while 10.3% (95% CI 7.4%-13.8%) of individuals were positive for antibodies against both Brucella spp. and RVFV. Virus neutralisation tests (VNT) confirmed anti-RVFV antibodies in 85% of ELISA-positive samples. Our seroprevalence results were comparable to community-level seroprevalences previously reported in the area. Since most of the study participants were not from livestock-keeping households, our findings attribute most of the detected infections to occupational exposure. The high exposure levels indicate slaughterhouse workers are the most at-risk population and there is need for infection, prevention, and control programs among this high-risk group. This is the first VNT confirmation of virus-neutralising antibodies among slaughterhouse workers in Isiolo County and corroborates reports of the area being a high-risk RVFV area as occasioned by previously reported outbreaks. This necessitates sensitization campaigns to enhance awareness of the risks involved and appropriate mitigation measures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy

With a dataset of testing and case counts from over 1,400 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States, we analyze the number of infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in the counties surrounding these IHEs during the Fall 2020 semester (August to December, 2020). We find that counties with IHEs that remained primarily online experienced fewer cases and deaths during the Fall 2020 semester; whereas before and after the semester, these two groups had almost identical COVID-19 incidence. Additionally, we see fewer cases and deaths in counties with IHEs that reported conducting any on-campus testing compared to those that reported none. To perform these two comparisons, we used a matching procedure designed to create well-balanced groups of counties that are aligned as much as possible along age, race, income, population, and urban/rural categories—demographic variables that have been shown to be correlated with COVID-19 outcomes. We conclude with a case study of IHEs in Massachusetts—a state with especially high detail in our dataset—which further highlights the importance of IHE-affiliated testing for the broader community. The results in this work suggest that campus testing can itself be thought of as a mitigation policy and that allocating additional resources to IHEs to support efforts to regularly test students and staff would be beneficial to mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in a pre-vaccine environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A scalable method of applying heat and humidity for decontamination of N95 respirators during the COVID-19 crisis

A lack of N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators (FFRs) during the COVID-19 crisis has placed healthcare workers at risk. It is important for any N95 reuse strategy to determine the effects that proposed protocols would have on the physical functioning of the mask, as well as the practical aspects of implementation. Here we propose and implement a method of heating N95 respirators with moisture (85°C, 60-85% humidity). We test both mask filtration efficiency and fit to validate this process. Our tests focus on the 3M 1860, 3M 1870, and 3M 8210 Plus N95 models. After five cycles of the heating procedure, all three respirators pass both quantitative fit testing (score of >100) and show no degradation of mask filtration efficiency. We also test the Chen Heng V9501 KN95 and HKYQ N95 finding no degradation of mask filtration efficiency, however even for unheated masks these scored <50 for every fit test. The heating method presented here is scalable from individual masks to over a thousand a day with a single industrial convection oven, making this method practical for local application inside health-care facilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dry heat sterilization as a method to recycle N95 respirator masks: The importance of fit

In times of crisis, including the current COVID-19 pandemic, the supply chain of filtering facepiece respirators, such as N95 respirators, are disrupted. To combat shortages of N95 respirators, many institutions were forced to decontaminate and reuse respirators. While several reports have evaluated the impact on filtration as a measurement of preservation of respirator function after decontamination, the equally important fact of maintaining proper fit to the users’ face has been understudied. In the current study, we demonstrate the complete inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and preservation of fit test performance of N95 respirators following treatment with dry heat. We apply scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements, Raman spectroscopy, and contact angle measurements to analyze filter material changes as a consequence of different decontamination treatments. We further compared the integrity of the respirator after autoclaving versus dry heat treatment via quantitative fit testing and found that autoclaving, but not dry heat, causes the fit of the respirator onto the users face to fail, thereby rendering the decontaminated respirator unusable. Our findings highlight the importance to account for both efficacy of disinfection and mask fit when reprocessing respirators to for clinical redeployment.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

National variability in Americans’ COVID-19 protective behaviors: Implications for vaccine roll-out

Protective behaviors such as mask wearing and physical distancing are critical to slow the spread of COVID-19, even in the context of vaccine scale-up. Understanding the variation in self-reported COVID-19 protective behaviors is critical to developing public health messaging. The purpose of the study is to provide nationally representative estimates of five self-reported COVID-19 protective behaviors and correlates of such behaviors. In this cross-sectional survey study of US adults, surveys were administered via internet and telephone. Adults were surveyed from April 30-May 4, 2020, a time of peaking COVID-19 incidence within the US. Participants were recruited from the probability-based AmeriSpeak® national panel. Brief surveys were completed by 994 adults, with 73.0% of respondents reported mask wearing, 82.7% reported physical distancing, 75.1% reported crowd avoidance, 89.8% reported increased hand-washing, and 7.7% reported having prior COVID-19 testing. Multivariate analysis (p critical value .05) indicates that women were more likely to report protective behaviors than men, as were those over age 60. Respondents who self-identified as having low incomes, histories of criminal justice involvement, and Republican Party affiliation, were less likely to report four protective behaviors, though Republicans and individuals with criminal justice histories were more likely to report having received COVID-19 testing. The majority of Americans engaged in COVID-19 protective behaviors, with low-income Americans, those with histories of criminal justice involvement, and self-identified Republicans less likely to engage in these preventive behaviors. Culturally competent public health messaging and interventions might focus on these latter groups to prevent future infections. These findings will remain highly relevant even with vaccines widely available, given the complementarities between vaccines and protective behaviors, as well as the many challenges in delivering vaccines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Theoretical modeling of hepatitis C acute infection in liver-humanized mice support pre-clinical assessment of candidate viruses for controlled-human-infection studies

Designing and carrying out a controlled human infection (CHI) model for hepatitis C virus (HCV) is critical for vaccine development. However, key considerations for a CHI model protocol include understanding of the earliest viral-host kinetic events during the acute phase and susceptibility of the viral isolate under consideration for use in the CHI model to antiviral treatment before any infections in human volunteers can take place. Humanized mouse models lack adaptive immune responses but provide a unique opportunity to obtain quantitative understanding of early HCV kinetics and develop mathematical models to further understand viral and innate immune response dynamics during acute HCV infection. We show that the models reproduce the measured HCV kinetics in humanized mice, which are consistent with early acute HCV-host dynamics in immunocompetent chimpanzees. Our findings suggest that humanized mice are well-suited to support development of a CHI model. In-silico and in-vivo modeling estimates provide a starting point to characterize candidate viruses for testing in CHI model studies.

Agent-based modeling↗

Insights from a workplace SARS-CoV-2 specimen collection program, with genomes placed into global sequence phylogeny

In 2020, the Department of Energy established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) to address key challenges associated with COVID-19. As part of that effort, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) established a capability to collect and analyze specimens from employees who self-reported symptoms consistent with the disease. During the spring and fall of 2021, 688 specimens were screened for SARS-CoV-2, with 64 (9.3%) testing positive using reverse-transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). Of these, 36 samples were released for research. All 36 positive samples released for research were sequenced and genotyped. Here, the relationship between patient age and viral load as measured by Ct values was measured and determined to be only weakly significant. Consensus sequences for each sample were placed into a global phylogeny and transmission dynamics were investigated, revealing that the closest relative for many samples was from outside of Washington state, indicating mixing of viral pools within geographic regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multiple spillovers from humans and onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer

Many animal species are susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and could act as reservoirs; however, transmission in free-living animals has not been documented. White-tailed deer, the predominant cervid in North America, are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and experimentally infected fawns can transmit the virus. To test the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 is circulating in deer, 283 retropharyngeal lymph node (RPLN) samples collected from 151 free-living and 132 captive deer in Iowa from April 2020 through January of 2021 were assayed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Ninety-four of the 283 (33.2%) deer samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA as assessed by RT-PCR. Notably, following the November 2020 peak of human cases in Iowa, and coinciding with the onset of winter and the peak deer hunting season, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 80 of 97 (82.5%) RPLN samples collected over a 7-wk period. Whole genome sequencing of all 94 positive RPLN samples identified 12 SARS-CoV-2 lineages, with B.1.2 (n = 51; 54.5%) and B.1.311 (n = 19; 20%) accounting for ~75% of all samples. The geographic distribution and nesting of clusters of deer and human lineages strongly suggest multiple human-to-deer transmission events followed by subsequent deer-to-deer spread. These discoveries have important implications for the long-term persistence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Our findings highlight an urgent need for a robust and proactive “One Health” approach to obtain enhanced understanding of the ecology, molecular evolution, and dissemination of SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of HEK-293 Cell Lines Constitutively Expressing Flaviviral Antigens for Use in Diagnostics

Flaviviruses are important human pathogens worldwide. Diagnostic testing for these viruses is difficult because many of the pathogens require specialized biocontainment. To address this issue, we generated 39 virus-like particle (VLP)- and nonstructural protein 1 (NS1)-secreting stable cell lines in HEK-293 cells of 13 different flaviviruses, including dengue, yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis, Zika, Rocio, Ilheus, Usutu, and Powassan viruses. Antigen secretion was stable for at least 10 cell passages, as measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and immunofluorescence assays. Thirty-five cell lines (90%) had stable antigen expression over 10 passages, with three of these cell lines (7%) increasing in antigen expression and one cell line (3%) decreasing in antigen expression. Antigen secretion in the HEK-293 cell lines was higher than in previously developed COS-1 cell line counterparts. These antigens can replace current antigens derived from live or inactivated virus for safer use in diagnostic testing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Misclassification of causes of death among a small all-autopsied group of former nuclear workers: Death certificates vs. autopsy reports

The U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries performs autopsies on each of its deceased Registrants as a part of its mission to follow up occupationally-exposed individuals. This provides a unique opportunity to explore death certificate misclassification errors, and the factors that influence them, among this small population of former nuclear workers. Underlying causes of death from death certificates and autopsy reports were coded using the 10 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). These codes were then used to quantify misclassification rates among 268 individuals for whom both full autopsy reports and death certificates with legible underlying causes of death were available. When underlying causes of death were compared between death certificates and autopsy reports, death certificates correctly identified the underlying cause of death’s ICD-10 disease chapter in 74.6% of cases. The remaining 25.4% of misclassified cases resulted in over-classification rates that ranged from 1.2% for external causes of mortality to 12.2% for circulatory disease, and under-classification rates that ranged from 7.7% for external causes of mortality to 47.4% for respiratory disease. Neoplasms had generally lower misclassification rates with 4.3% over-classification and 13.3% under-classification. A logistic regression revealed that the odds of a match were 2.8 times higher when clinical history was mentioned on the autopsy report than when it was not. Similarly, the odds of a match were 3.4 times higher when death certificates were completed using autopsy findings than when autopsy findings were not used. This analysis excluded cases where it could not be determined if autopsy findings were used to complete death certificates. The findings of this study are useful to investigate the impact of death certificate misclassification errors on radiation risk estimates and, therefore, improve the reliability of epidemiological studies.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Testing at scale during the COVID-19 pandemic

Assembly and publication of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome in January 2020 enabled the immediate development of tests to detect the new virus. This began the largest global testing programme in history, in which hundreds of millions of individuals have been tested to date. The unprecedented scale of testing has driven innovation in the strategies, technologies and concepts that govern testing in public health. In this Review, we describe the changing role of testing during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the use of genomic surveillance to track SARS-CoV-2 transmission around the world, the use of contact tracing to contain disease outbreaks and testing for the presence of the virus circulating in the environment. Despite these efforts, widespread community transmission has become entrenched in many countries and has required the testing of populations to identify and isolate infected individuals, many of whom are asymptomatic. The diagnostic and epidemiological principles that underpin such population-scale testing are also considered, as are the high-throughput and point-of-care technologies that make testing feasible on a massive scale.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

COVID-19 Biomarkers and Advanced Sensing Technologies for Point-of-Care (POC) Diagnosis

COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2 is a novel, respiratory virus currently plaguing humanity. Genetically, at its core, it is a single-strand positive-sense RNA virus. It is a beta-type Coronavirus and is distinct in its structure and binding mechanism compared to other types of coronaviruses. Testing for the virus remains a challenge due to the small market available for at-home detection. Currently, there are three main types of tests for biomarker detection: viral, antigen and antibody. Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) remains the gold standard for viral testing. However, the lack of quantitative detection and turnaround time for results are drawbacks. This manuscript focuses on recent advances in COVID-19 detection that have lower limits of detection and faster response times than RT-PCR testing. The advancements in sensing platforms have amplified the detection levels and provided real-time results for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein detection with limits as low as 1 fg/mL in the Graphene Field Effect Transistor (FET) sensor. Additionally, using multiple biomarkers, detection levels can achieve a specificity and sensitivity level comparable to that of PCR testing. Proper biomarker selection coupled with nano sensing detection platforms are key in the widespread use of Point of Care (POC) diagnosis in COVID-19 detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Inactivation of highly transmissible livestock and avian viruses including influenza A and Newcastle disease virus for molecular diagnostics

There is a critical need for an inactivation method that completely inactivates pathogens at the time of sample collection while maintaining the nucleic acid quality required for diagnostic PCR testing. This inactivation method is required to alleviate concerns about transmission potential, minimize shipping complications and cost, and enable testing in lower containment laboratories, thereby enhancing disease diagnostics through improved turn-around time. This study evaluated a panel of 10 surrogate viruses that represent highly pathogenic animal diseases. These results showed that a commercial PrimeStore® molecular transport media (PSMTM) completely inactivated all viruses tested by >99.99%, as determined by infectivity and serial passage assays. However, the detection of viral nucleic acid by qRT-PCR was comparable in PSMTM and control-treated conditions. These results were consistent when viruses were evaluated in the presence of biological material such as sera and cloacal swabs to mimic diagnostic sample conditions for non-avian and avian viruses, respectively. The results of this study may be utilized by diagnostic testing laboratories for highly pathogenic agents affecting animal and human populations. These results may be used to revise guidance for select agent diagnostic testing and the shipment of infectious substances.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NCBI’s Virus Discovery Codeathon: Building “FIVE” —The Federated Index of Viral Experiments API Index

Viruses represent important test cases for data federation due to their genome size and the rapid increase in sequence data in publicly available databases. However, some consequences of previously decentralized (unfederated) data are lack of consensus or comparisons between feature annotations. Unifying or displaying alternative annotations should be a priority both for communities with robust entry representation and for nascent communities with burgeoning data sources. To this end, during this three-day continuation of the Virus Hunting Toolkit codeathon series (VHT-2), a new integrated and federated viral index was elaborated. This Federated Index of Viral Experiments (FIVE) integrates pre-existing and novel functional and taxonomy annotations and virus–host pairings. Variability in the context of viral genomic diversity is often overlooked in virus databases. As a proof-of-concept, FIVE was the first attempt to include viral genome variation for HIV, the most well-studied human pathogen, through viral genome diversity graphs. As per the publication of this manuscript, FIVE is the first implementation of a virus-specific federated index of such scope. FIVE is coded in BigQuery for optimal access of large quantities of data and is publicly accessible. Many projects of database or index federation fail to provide easier alternatives to access or query information. To this end, a Python API query system was developed to enhance the accessibility of FIVE.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗