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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the climate impact of an improved volcanic sulfate aerosol representation in E3SM

Accurately simulating historical surface temperature variations is essential for evaluating climate models, yet many struggle to reproduce the mid-20th-century temperature trends associated with significant volcanic eruptions. This study examines the impact of volcanic sulfate aerosol representation on these biases using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The standard CMIP6 protocol prescribes volcanic forcing through radiative perturbations, omitting volcanic aerosol–cloud interactions (VACIs). Here, we implement an emission-based approach with an updated volcanic eruption inventory that directly incorporates volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions, enabling a more process-based representation of volcanic forcing. This approach leads to improved surface temperature variability and a modest reduction in cold biases between 1940 and 1980 compared to the CMIP6 setup. Additionally, we assess cloud property responses to a more realistic volcanic sulfate aerosol representation, which weakens cloud-induced cooling during periods of lower volcanic activity. However, despite these refinements, a significant temperature cold bias remains, indicating that further improvements in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol microphysics, cloud processes, and model parameterizations are needed to fully resolve this issue in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Volcanic electrification: recent advances and future perspectives

Abstract The electrification of volcanic plumes has been described intermittently since at least the time of Pliny the Younger and the 79 AD eruption of Vesuvius. Although sometimes disregarded in the past as secondary effects, recent work suggests that the electrical properties of volcanic plumes reveal intrinsic and otherwise inaccessible parameters of explosive eruptions. An increasing number of volcanic lightning studies across the last decade have shown that electrification is ubiquitous in volcanic plumes. Technological advances in engineering and numerical modelling, paired with close observation of recent eruptions and dedicated laboratory studies (shock-tube and current impulse experiments), show that charge generation and electrical activity are related to the physical, chemical, and dynamic processes underpinning the eruption itself. Refining our understanding of volcanic plume electrification will continue advancing the fundamental understanding of eruptive processes to improve volcano monitoring. Realizing this goal, however, requires an interdisciplinary approach at the intersection of volcanology, atmospheric science, atmospheric electricity, and engineering. Our paper summarizes the rapid and steady progress achieved in recent volcanic lightning research and provides a vision for future developments in this growing field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biogeochemical Characteristics of Earth's Volcanic Permafrost: An Analog of Extraterrestrial Environments

This article describes a study of frozen volcanic deposits collected from volcanoes Tolbachik and Bezymianny on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, and Deception Island volcano, Antarctica. In addition, we studied suprasnow ash layers deposited after the 2007 eruptions of volcanoes Shiveluch and Bezymianny on Kamchatka. The main objectives were to characterize the presence and survivability of thermophilic microorganisms in perennially frozen volcanic deposits. As opposed to permafrost from the polar regions, viable thermophiles were detected in volcanic permafrost by cultivation, microscopy, and sequencing. In the permafrost of Tolbachik volcano, we observed methane formation by both psychrophilic and thermophilic methanogenic archaea, while at 37°C, methane production was noticeably lower. Thermophilic bacteria isolated from volcanic permafrost from the Deception Island were 99.93% related to Geobacillus stearothermophilus. Furthermore, our data showed biological sulfur reduction to sulfide at 85°C and even at 130°C, where hyperthermophilic archaea of the genus Thermoproteus were registered. Sequences of hyperthermophilic bacteria of the genus Caldicellulosiruptor were discovered in clone libraries from fresh volcanic ash deposited on snow. Microorganisms found in volcanic terrestrial permafrost may serve as a model for the alien inhabitants of Mars, a cryogenic planet with numerous volcanoes. Thermophiles and hyperthermophiles and their metabolic processes represent a guideline for the future exploration missions on Mars.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Volcanic Imprints in Last-Millennium Land Summer Temperatures in the Circum-North Atlantic Area

Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, in this work, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Godzilla mineral dust and La Soufrière volcanic ash fallout immediately stimulate marine microbial phosphate uptake

During the “Godzilla” dust storm of June 2020, unusually high fluxes of mineral dust traveled across the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert, reaching the Caribbean Basin, Gulf Coast, and southeastern United States. Additionally, an eruption of the La Soufrière volcano on St. Vincent in April 2021 generated substantial ashfall in the southeastern Caribbean. While many studies have analyzed mineral dust’s ability to relieve nutrient limitation of phosphorus (P) in the P-stressed North Atlantic, less is known about the impact of extreme events and other natural aerosols on fluxes of P into seawater and from seawater into marine microbial cells. We quantified P and iron (Fe) content in mineral dust from the Godzilla dust storm and volcanic ash from the La Soufrière eruption collected at Ragged Point, Barbados. We also performed seawater incubations to assess the marine microbial response to aerosol deposition. Using environmentally-relevant concentrations of atmospheric particles for within the ocean’s mixed layer allowed us to draw realistic conclusions about how these deposition events impacted P cycling in situ. Volcanic ash has lower P content than mineral dust, and P in volcanic ash is far less soluble (~1%) than assumed in current atmospheric deposition models. Adding mineral dust and the volcanic ash leachate in concentrations representing different deposition scenarios increased soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in coastal seawater by ~7-32 nM. Phosphate uptake rate was stimulated in coastal seawater after either mineral dust or volcanic ash deposition at aerosol concentrations relevant to the Godzilla dust event, with ash eliciting the fastest uptake rate. Furthermore, high concentrations of both the mineral dust and volcanic ash led to slightly elevated alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) compared to the relevant controls, indicating higher potential for use of dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) as a P source. Quantifying these aerosols’ impacts on P cycling is a significant step towards achieving a better understanding of their potential roles in relieving nutrient limitation and fueling the biological carbon pump.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Argon-isotopic Age Dating Analyses for Eastern Snake River Plain Volcanic Rock Samples

Argon-isotopic age dating analyses were conducted on 25 volcanic rock samples obtained from 22 boreholes and collected at three surface locations in the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP). The analyses were conducted to reduce uncertainties for characterizing volcanic hazards at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as part of the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA). Results of the argon-isotopic age dating analyses will be used to estimate the recurrence of basaltic and silicic volcanism and for assessing the spatial and temporal distributions of volcanic events in the ESRP.

58 - GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radiative Forcing From the 2014–2022 Volcanic and Wildfire Injections

Abstract Volcanic and wildfire events between 2014 and 2022 injected ∼3.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide and 0.8 Tg of smoke aerosols into the stratosphere. With injections at higher altitudes and lower latitudes, the simulated stratospheric lifetime of the 2014–2022 injections is about 50% longer than the volcanic 2005–2013 injections. The simulated global mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 2014–2022 is −0.18 W m −2 , ∼40% of the ERF of the period of 1991–1999 with a large‐magnitude volcanic eruption (Pinatubo). Our climate model suggests that the stratospheric smoke aerosols generate ∼60% more negative ERF than volcanic sulfate per unit aerosol optical depth. Studies that fail to account for the different radiative properties of wildfire smoke relative to volcanic sulfate will likely underestimate the negative stratospheric forcings. Our analysis suggests that stratospheric injections offset 20% of the increase in global mean surface temperature between 2014–2022 and 1999–2002.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century

The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the responses from a set of early 19th century simulations with combined and separated volcanic and solar forcing agents, as suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4). From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is additive in the global mean/large scale, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE (Spectral and Total Irradiance REconstruction-Millennia model) and PMOD (Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos)) contribute to a cooling before and after 1815 of ~0.05 and ~0.15 K monthly average near-surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling that peaks at ~0.82 K for the 1809 event and ~1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the temperature in most regions increases toward climatology largely within 5 years, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the temperature increases slowly at a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the concurrent changes in Arctic sea-ice extent. The albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite-sign changes in stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extratropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of the volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the 1815 Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model

Abstract. A new set of standalone parameterizations is presented for simulating the injection, evolution, and radiative forcing by stratospheric volcanic aerosols against an idealized Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) atmospheric background in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). In this model configuration (HSW with enabled volcanism, HSW-V), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash are injected into the atmosphere with a specified profile in the vertical, and they proceed to follow a simple exponential decay. The SO2 decay is modeled as a perfect conversion to a long-living sulfate aerosol which persists in the stratosphere. All three species are implemented as tracers in the model framework and are transported by the dynamical core's advection algorithm. The aerosols contribute simultaneously to local heating of the stratosphere and cooling of the surface by a simple plane-parallel Beer–Lambert law applied on two zonally symmetric radiation broadbands in the longwave and shortwave ranges. It is shown that the implementation parameters can be tuned to produce realistic temperature anomaly signatures of large volcanic events. In particular, results are shown for an ensemble of runs that mimic the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The design requires no coupling to microphysical subgrid-scale parameterizations and thus approaches the computational affordability of prescribed aerosol forcing strategies. The idealized simulations contain a single isolated volcanic event against a statistically uniform climate, where no background aerosols or other sources of externally forced variability are present. HSW-V represents a simpler-to-understand tool for the development of climate source-to-impact attribution methods.

Hollowed, Joseph P. (ORCID:0000000286581672)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of structure and volcanic stratigraphy on groundwater and surface water flow: Hat Creek basin, California, USA

Abstract Hydrogeologic systems in the southern Cascade Range in California (USA) develop in volcanic rocks where morphology, stratigraphy, extensional structures, and attendant basin geometry play a central role in groundwater flow paths, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and spring discharge locations. High-volume springs (greater than 3 m 3 /s) flow from basin-filling (<800 ka) volcanic rocks in the Hat Creek and Fall River tributaries and contribute approximately half of the average annual flow of the Pit River, the largest tributary to Shasta Lake. A hydrogeologic conceptual framework is constructed for the Hat Creek basin combining new geologic mapping, water-well lithologic logs, a database of active faults, LiDAR mapping of faults and volcanic landforms, streamflow measurements and airborne thermal infrared remote sensing of stream temperature. These data are used to integrate the geologic structure and the volcanic and volcaniclastic stratigraphy to create a three-dimensional interpretation of the hydrogeology in the basin. Two large streamflow gains from focused groundwater discharge near Big Spring and north of Sugarloaf Peak result from geologic barriers that restrict lateral groundwater flow and force water into Hat Creek. The inferred groundwater-flow barriers divide the aquifer system into at least three leaky compartments. The two downstream compartments lose streamflow in the upstream reaches (immediately downstream of the groundwater-flow barriers) and gain in downstream reaches with the greatest inflows immediately upstream of the barriers.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Reduce the Climatic Risks of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions

Sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions happen sporadically. If Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) were to be deployed, it is likely that explosive volcanic eruptions would happen during such a deployment. Here we use an ensemble of Earth System Model simulations to show how changing the injection strategy post-eruption could be used to reduce the climate risks of a large volcanic eruption; the risks are also modified even without any change to the strategy. For a medium-size eruption (10 Tg-SO 2 ) comparable to the SAI injection rate, the volcanic-induced cooling would be reduced if it occurs under SAI, especially if artificial sulfur dioxide injections were immediately suspended. Alternatively, suspending injection only in the eruption hemisphere and continuing injection in the opposite would reduce shifts in precipitation in the tropical belt and thus mitigate eruption-induced drought. Finally, we show that for eruptions much larger than the SAI deployment, changes in SAI strategy would have minimal effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice nucleation by volcanic ash greatly alters cirrus cloud properties

The formation of ice crystals in the atmosphere strongly affects cloud properties and climate. While volcanic ash (VA) has been shown to nucleate ice crystals efficiently in laboratory settings, its importance for ice formation in the atmosphere remains elusive. Here, we show evidence of cirrus modification by volcanic eruptions through ice nucleation on VA, revealed by abrupt changes in cirrus properties following volcanic eruptions based on satellite measurements. The distinct changes captured are a phenomenal decrease in number, an increase in size of ice crystals in cirrus clouds, and an increase in cirrus occurrences after ash-rich volcanic eruptions. Conversely, no such changes were detected following the ash-poor eruption. We propose a cirrus formation mechanism where VA nucleates ice heterogeneously, suppressing homogeneous freezing and resulting in fewer but larger ice crystals. This suppression of homogeneous freezing by VA is supported by process-level cloud microphysical simulations. Our findings advance the understanding of aerosol–ice cloud interactions and illuminate cirrus geoengineering.

Lin, Lin [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Could the chemical industry mitigate rapid global cooling from a catastrophic volcanic eruption?

Abstract Estimates based on historical data place the probability of a catastrophic volcanic eruption in the next 100 years at around one in six. Large volcanic eruptions can lead to significant global cooling for 2–4 years, with potentially devastating impacts on global agriculture. In principle, the negative impacts of volcano‐induced cooling could be reduced by deliberate emission of short‐lived chemicals with high greenhouse gas intensity into the atmosphere. This article examines the physical feasibility of this concept for a wide range of short‐lived climate pollutants, using the global chemical industry for context. Deliberate emission of any known chemical species would require gigatons of material, which would have to be produced and stored far in advance of the volcanic event. The cost of this undertaking would be immense. In addition to these daunting logistical challenges, a range of other uncertainties and complications associated with this concept are discussed.

Sholl, David S. [University of Tennessee‐Oak Ridge↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmogenic 21 Ne exposure ages on late Pleistocene moraines in Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, USA

We report new cosmogenic 21 Ne in quartz exposure ages from 18 samples on three distinct moraines deposited in the Lost Creek drainage, approximately 3–7 km down-valley from Lassen Peak in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Although measuring 21 Ne in quartz is generally straightforward, accurate 21Ne exposure dating of deposits of late Pleistocene is rarely possible due to the significant quantities of non-cosmogenic 21 Ne present in most lithologies. Young quartz-bearing volcanic rocks have been observed to be an exception. We take advantage of moraine boulders sourced from the ~28 ka dacite of Lassen Peak to generate a chronology of alpine deglaciation in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Ages from three distinct moraines are in stratigraphic order at 22.1 ± 3.8, 20.2 ± 2.4, and 15.3 ± 3.8 ka and generally agree with other terminal and some recessional moraine ages across the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada of the western United States. To date, these are among the youngest surfaces ever dated using cosmogenic 21 Ne and provide a cost-effective proof-of-concept approach to dating moraines where applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗