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Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El NiNo evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.
Surface-air temperatures measured in winter at 3 meteorological stations in central Europe rise substantially for most of the second-half of the 20th century. This means shorter winter, and longer growing season, which has positive implications for regional agriculture. However, these positive trends stopped in winter of 1996, and for the recent 7 years no further climatic amelioration is reported.
Our third (final) year activities have focused on two elements: 1) Creating and evaluating panarctic weekly climatologies of ocean color products for 1998 through 2002, 2) Interacting to assess image databases, submit and revise publications. Comiso and his programmer have principal responsibility for assembling and archiving the monthly and weekly image database at GSFC. There are now five year's (1998-2002) of climatologies. In addition to email correspondence, the PIs have met to prepare a series of publications ranging from panarctic physical-biological interactions to more focused regional studies.
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Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that in the southeastern US and eastern China, the general greenhouse warming due to anthropogenic gaseous emissions is dominated by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. To verify this model prediction in eastern China and southeastern US, we analyzed regional patterns of climate changes at 72 stations in eastern China during 1951- 94 (44 years), and at 52 stations in the southeastern US during 1949-94 (46 years) to detect the fingerprint of aerosol radiative forcing. It was found that the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in eastern China were 0.8, -0.2, 1.8, and -2.0 C/100 years respectively, while the mean rates of change of annual mean daily, maximum, minimum temperatures and DTR in the southeastern US were -0.2, -0.6, 0.2, and -0.8 C/100 years, respectively. This indicates that the high rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature in eastern China results in a slightly warming trend of daily temperature, while the high rate of decrease in annual mean maximum temperature and low rate of increase in annual mean minimum temperature lead to the cooling trend of daily temperature in the southeastern US. We found that the warming from the longwave forcing due to both greenhouse gases and aerosols was completely counteracted by the shortwave aerosol forcing in the southeastern US in the past 46 years. A slightly overall warming trend in eastern China is evident; winters have become milder. This finding is explained by hypothesizing that increasing energy usage during the past 44 years has resulted in more coal and biomass burning, thus increasing the emission of absorbing soot and organic aerosols in eastern China. Such emissions, in addition to well-known Asia dust and greenhouse gases, may be responsible for the winter warming trend in eastern China that we have reported here. The sensitivity of aerosol radiative properties to aerosol composition, size distribution, relative humidity (RH) is examined for the following aerosol systems: inorganic and organic ions (Cl-, Br-, NO3 -, SO4 2-, Na+, NH4 +, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCOO-, CH3COO-, CH3CH2COO-, CH3COCOO-, OOCCOO2-, MSA-1); water-insoluble inorganic and organic compounds (elemental carbon, n-alkanes, SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3 and other organic compounds). The partial molar refraction method was used to calculate the real part of the refractive index. It was found that the asymmetry factor increased by approximately 48% with the real part varying from 1.40 to 1.65, and the single scattering albedo decreased by 24% with the imaginary part varying from -0.005 to -0.1. The asymmetry factor increased by 5.4 times with the geometric standard deviation varying from 1.2 to 3.0. The radiation transmission is very sensitive to the change in size distribution; other factors are not as significant. To determine the aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF), the aerosol optical depth (AOD) values at the three operational wavelengths (415, 500 and 673 nm) were determined at a regionally representative site, namely, Mt. Gibbs (35.78 deg N, 82.29 deg W, elevation 2006 m) in Mt. Mitchell State Park, NC, and a site located in an adjacent valley (Black Mountain, 35.66 deg N, 82.38 deg W, elevation 951 m) in the southeastern US. The two sites are separated horizontally by 10 km and vertically by 1 km. It was found that the representative total AOD values at 500 nm at the valley site for highly polluted (HP), marine (M) and continental (C) air masses were 0.68 +/- 0.33, 0.29 +/- 0.19 and 0.10 +/- 0.04, respectively. A search-graph method was used to retrieve the columnar size distribution (number concentration N, effective radius reff and geometric standard deviation=?g) from the optical depth observations at three operational wavelengths. The ground albedo, single scattering albedo and imaginary part of the refractive index were calculated using a mathematically unique procedure involving a Mie code and a radiative transfer code in conjunction with the retrieved aerosol size distribution, AOD, and diffuse-direct irradiance ratio. It was found that N, r(eff) and sigma(g) were in the ranges of 10 to 1.7 x 10(exp 4)/cubic cm, 0.09 to 0.68 micrometers and 1.12 to 2.95, respectively. The asymmetry factor and single scattering albedo were in the ranges of 0.63 to 0.75 and 0.74 to 0.97 respectively. The ground albedo for the forested terrain and imaginary part of refractive index were found to be in the ranges of 0.06 to 0.29 and 0.005 to 0.051 respectively. On the basis of these aerosol radiative properties obtained at the research sites and computations using the Column Radiation Model (CRM) of National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM3), it was found that the average cloud-free 24-hour ADRF values were -13 +/- 8, -8 +/- 3, -33 +/- 16 W/square m for marine, continental, and polluted air masses, respectively. On the assumption that the fractional coverage of clouds is 0.61, it was estimated that the annual mean ADRF was 7 +/- 2 W/square m in the southeastern US. The review with respect to the current knowledge of organic acids shows that aerosol formate and acetate concentrations range from 0.02 to 5.3 nmol/cubic m and from 0.03 to 12.4 nmol/cubic m respectively, and that between 34% to 77% of formate and between 21% to 66% of acetate are present in the fine fraction of aerosols. It was found that although most (98-99%) of these volatile organic acids were present in the gas phase, their concentrations in the aerosol particles were sufficient to make them a good candidate for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). It is hypothesized that organic acids are at least one of the primary sources of CCN in the atmosphere due to their ubiquitous presence in the troposphere, especially over the continental forested areas. The results of our measurements at Palmer Station, Antarctica show that the daily average CCN concentrations at 0.3% and 1% supersaturations ranged from 0.3 to 160/cubic cm and from 4 to 168/cubic cm, respectively, during the period from 17 January to 26 February, 1994. New evidence for substantial and definitive CCN enhancement near and within cloud has been observed at Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina. The results show that the average monthly CCN concentrations were 460 +/- 217, 386 +/- 286, 429 +/- 228 and 238 +/- 134/cubic cm for in-cloud, overcast, clear and rainy conditions, respectively. The typical CCN spectra show that there were a lot of small CCN produced and the ion concentrations (especially H+ and SO4 2-) were very high during the CCN enhancement period. The significantly positive correlation between black carbon (BC) and CCN at 1% supersaturation indicates that a percentage of the BC measured at the site may be in the form of an internal mixture and participated in the formation of CCN.
Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.
The icehouse effect is a hypothesized polar climate trend toward cooling (or lack of warming) in response to greenhouse warming of adjacent lower latitudes. When greenhouse warmed air from lower latitudes moves over ice and snow, it generates a stronger, more stable, cappino, inversion than in a parallel case without greenhouse warming. Because the degree of decoupling between vertically adjacent air masses is directly dependent on the strength of the inversion, the capping inversion acts somewhat analogously to the walls and roof of the icehouse of generations past. What is inside the icehouse, namely the cold polar atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) air, is preserved by the "insulation" or decoupling, provided by the warm air aloft. Observations over the Arctic Ocean have shown an unexpected lack of any detectable surface warming trend over the past 40 years. This finding strongly contradicts climate model predictions that polar regions should show the strongest effect of greenhouse warming. It also stands in contrast to the consensus reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that human caused greenhouse warming is now detectable globally. One might ask: Are these Arctic observations wrong? Or, if right, is there a plausible physical explanation for them? The published observations mentioned above used about 50,000 soundings over the Arctic Ocean. Here I present a novel analysis of ALL available Arctic rawinsonde data north of 65N--a total of more than 1.1 million soundings. The analysis confirms the previously published result: There is indeed a slight climate-cooling trend in the vast majority of the data. Importantly, there are also select conditions (very strong and very weak stability of the ABL) which show a consistent, strong Arctic warming trend. It is the juxtaposition of these warming and cooling trends which defines a unique "icehouse signature" for which an explanation can be sought.
Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.
Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.
Stable isotopic investigations were conducted on calcareous microfossils across two deep sea Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sequences on Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The boundary is taken at the level of massive extinctions in calcareous planktonic microfossils, and coincides with a sharp lithologic change from pure calcareous ooze to calcareous ooze with a large volcanic clay component. The uppermost Maestrichtian is marked by a long-term decrease in delta value of 0 to 18 which spans most of the lower and middle A. mayaroensis Zone and represents a warming trend which culminated in surface water temperatures of about 16 C. At approximately 3 meters below the K-T boundary this warming trend terminates abruptly and benthic and planktonic isotopic records exhibit a rapid increase in delta value of 0 to 18 that continues up to the K-T boundary. The trend towards cooler surface water temperatures stops abruptly at the K-T boundary and delta value of 0 to 18 values remain relatively stable through the Paleocene. Comparison of the Antarctic sequence with the previously documented deep sea records in the South Atlantic reveal shifts of similar magnitude in the latest Maestrichtian. It is indicated that the Southern Ocean underwent the most significant, and apparently permanent, climatic change. The latest Cretaceous oxygen isotopic shift recorded at Maud Rise and other deep sea sites is similar in magnitude to large positive delta valve of 0 to 18 shifts in the middle Eocene, at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene that marked large scale climatic transitions which ultimately lead to cryospheric development of the Antarctic. The climatic shift at the end of the Cretaceous represents one of the most significant climatic transitions recorded in the latest Phanerozoic and had a profound effect on global climate as well as oceanic circulation.
Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.
Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.
In this paper, we have identified three principal modes of summertime rainfall variability over China and global sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1955-1998. Using these modes, we have assessed the impact of the El Nino/La Nina on major drought and flood occurrence over China during 1997-1998. The first mode can be identified with the growth phase of El Nino superimposed on a linear warming trend since the mid-1950s. This mode strongly influences rainfall over northern China. The second mode comprises of a quasi-biennial tendency manifested in alternate wet and dry years over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of central China. The third mode is dominated by a quasi-decadal oscillation in eastern China between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Using a mode-by-mode reconstruction, we evaluate the impacts of the various principal modes on the 1997 and 1998 observed rainfall anomaly. We find that the severe drought in northern China, and to a lesser degree the flood in southern China, in 1997 is likely a result of the influence of anomalous SST forcing during the growth phase of the El Nino. In addition, rainfall in southern China may be influenced by the decadal or long-term SST variability. The severe flood over the Yangtze River Valley in 1998 is associated with the biennial tendency of basin scale SST during the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1997-98. Additionally, the observed prolonged drought over northern China and increasing flooding over the YRV since the 1950s may be associated with a long-term warming trend in the tropical Indian and western Pacific ocean. During 1997, the El Nino SST exacerbated the drought situation over northern China. In 1998, the drought appeared to get temporary relief from the La Nina anomalous SST forcing.
A better understanding of the relationship between land surface temperature (Ts) and near-surface air temperature (Ta) is crucial for improving the simulation accuracy of climate models, developing retrieval schemes for soil and vegetation moisture, and estimating large-scale Ta from satellite-based Ts observations. In this study, we investigated the relationship between multiple satellite-based Ts products, derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua satellite, and Ta from 204 meteorological stations over Brazil during 2003–2016. Monthly satellite-based Ts products used in this study include: (1) AIRS Version 6 with 1° spatial resolution, (2) AIRS Version 7 with 1° spatial resolution, (3) MODIS Collection 6 with 0.05° spatial resolution, and (4) MODIS Collection 6 with 1° spatial resolution re-sampled from (3) for a direct comparison with AIRS products. We found that satellite-based Ts is lower than Ta over the forest area, but higher than Ta over the non-forest area. Nevertheless, the correlation coefficients (R) between monthly Ta and four Ts products during 2003–2016 are greater than 0.8 over most stations. The long-term trend analysis shows a general warming trend in temperatures, particularly over the central and eastern parts of Brazil. The satellite products could also observe the increasing Ts over the deforestation region. Furthermore, we examined the temperature anomalies during three drought events in the dry season of 2005, 2010, and 2015. All products show similar spatio-temporal patterns, with positive temperature anomalies expanding in areal coverage and magnitude from the 2005 to 2015 event. The above results show that satellite-based Ts is sensitive in reflecting environmental changes such as deforestation and extreme climatic events, and can be used as an alternative to Ta for climatological studies. Moreover, the observed differences between Ts and Ta may inform how thermal assumptions can be improved in satellite-based retrievals of soil and vegetation moisture or evapotranspiration.
Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.
The results of a preliminary analysis of the data on the global distributions of temperature and trace constituents in the middle atmosphere (15-65 km) obtained with the limb IR monitor (LIMS) are presented. The 6-channel limb-scanning radiometer was sensitive to the 15 micron bands of CO2, as well as other wavelengths, and was launched on the Nimbus 7 satellite in 1978. The derived data were partially compared with Soviet rocketsonde data to track an evolution in a warming trend over Siberia. The morphology of the changes were attributed to stratospheric warming. The comparisons with rocketsonde data indicated that the LIMS data were suitable for the determination of planetary wave amplitudes and phases, heat and momentum transport, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes.
The Apollo astronauts deployed geothermal heat flow instruments at landing sites 15 and 17 as part of the Apollo Lunar Surface Experiments Packages (ALSEP) in July 1971 and December 1972, respectively. These instruments continuously transmitted data to the Earth until September 1977. Four decades later, the data from the two Apollo sites remain the only set of in-situ heat flow measurements obtained on an extra-terrestrial body. Researchers continue to extract additional knowledge from this dataset by utilizing new analytical techniques and by synthesizing it with data from more recent lunar orbital missions such as the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. In addition, lessons learned from the Apollo experiments help contemporary researchers in designing heat flow instruments for future missions to the Moon and other planetary bodies. For example, the data from both Apollo sites showed gradual warming trends in the subsurface from 1971 to 1977. The cause of this warming has been debated in recent years. It may have resulted from fluctuation in insolation associated with the 18.6-year-cycle precession of the Moon, or sudden changes in surface thermal environment/properties resulting from the installation of the instruments and the astronauts' activities. These types of reanalyses of the Apollo data have lead a panel of scientists to recommend that a heat flow probe carried on a future lunar mission reach 3 m into the subsurface, approx 0.6 m deeper than the depths reached by the Apollo 17 experiment. This presentation describes the authors current efforts for (1) restoring a part of the Apollo heat flow data that were left unprocessed by the original investigators and (2) designing a compact heat flow instrument for future robotic missions to the Moon. First, at the conclusion of the ALSEP program in 1977, heat flow data obtained at the two Apollo sites after December 1974 were left unprocessed and not properly archived through NASA. In the following decades, heat flow data from January 1975 through February 1976, as well as the metadata necessary for processing the data (the data reduction algorithm, instrument calibration data, etc.), were somehow lost. In 2010, we located 450 original master archival tapes of unprocessed data from all the ALSEP instruments for a period of April through June 1975 at the Washington National Records Center. We are currently extracting the heat flow data packets from these tapes and processing them. Second, on future lunar missions, heat flow probes will likely be deployed by a network of small robotic landers, as recommended by the latest Decadal Survey of the National Academy of Science. In such a scenario, the heat flow probe must be a compact system, and that precludes use of heavy excavation equipment such as a rotary drill for reaching the 3-m target depth. The new heat flow system under development uses a pneumatically driven penetrator. It utilizes a stem that winds out of a reel and pushes its conical tip into the regolith. Simultaneously, gas jets, emitted from the cone tip, loosen and blow away the soil. Lab experiments have demonstrated its effectiveness in lunar vacuum.