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End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Console Water-to-Air Geothermal Heat Pump

Executive Summary Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past several years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. This measure models the conversion of an existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to a series of “console” water-to-air heat pumps served by a ground heat exchanger. Console water-to-air geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are all-in-one packages that have no or minimal ductwork and serve individual spaces. Properly designed ground heat exchanger-coupled systems can offer benefits in energy efficiency relative to “conventional” HVAC systems, as well as facilitating beneficial electrification. Console GHPs can be coupled to a ground loop on the source side and can directly replace electric baseboard heaters or air-source packaged terminal heat pumps. Console GHPs can also bring in outdoor air for ventilation. This measure will be referred to throughout the document as the “Console GHP” upgrade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) Agriculture Sector Technology Roadmap 2021

The National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) is a research consortium formed to accelerate transformative research in desalination and treatment to lower the cost and energy required to produce clean water from nontraditional water sources and realize a circular water economy. NAWI's goal is to enable the manufacturing of energy-efficient desalination technologies in the United States at a lower cost with the same (or higher) quality and reduced environmental impact for 90 percent of nontraditional water sources within the next 10 years. The nontraditional source waters of interest include brackish water; seawater; produced and extracted water; power, mining, industrial, municipal, and agricultural waste waters. When these desalination and treatment technologies are fully developed and utilized, they will be able to contribute to the water needs for many existing end-use sectors. NAWI has identified five end-use sectors that are critical to the U.S. economy for further exploration: Power, Resource Extraction, Industry, Municipal, and Agriculture (PRIMA). This Agriculture Sector roadmap aims to advance desalination and treatment of nontraditional source waters for beneficial use in public water supplies by identifying research and development (R&D) opportunities that help overcome existing treatment challenges. Under NAWI's vision, the transition from a linear to a circular water economy with nontraditional source waters will be achieved by advancing desalination and reuse technologies in six key areas: Autonomous operations, Precision separations, Resilient treatment and transport, Intensified brine management, Modular membrane systems, and Electrified treatment systems, collectively known as the A-PRIME areas. Technological advances in these different areas will enable nontraditional source waters to achieve pipe parity with traditional supplies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) Municipal Sector Technology Roadmap 2021

The National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) is a research consortium formed to accelerate transformative research in desalination and treatment to lower the cost and energy required to produce clean water from nontraditional water sources and realize a circular water economy. NAWI's goal is to enable the manufacturing of energy-efficient desalination technologies in the United States at a lower cost with the same (or higher) quality and reduced environmental impact for 90 percent of nontraditional water sources within the next 10 years. The nontraditional source waters of interest include brackish water; seawater; produced and extracted water; power, mining, industrial, municipal, and agricultural waste waters. When these desalination and treatment technologies are fully developed and utilized, they will be able to contribute to the water needs for many existing end-use sectors. NAWI has identified five end-use sectors that are critical to the U.S. economy for further exploration: Power, Resource Extraction, Industry, Municipal, and Agriculture (PRIMA). This Municipal Sector roadmap aims to advance desalination and treatment of nontraditional source waters for beneficial use in public water supplies by identifying research and development (R&D) opportunities that help overcome existing treatment challenges. Under NAWI's vision, the transition from a linear to a circular water economy with nontraditional source waters will be achieved by advancing desalination and reuse technologies in six key areas: Autonomous operations, Precision separations, Resilient treatment and transport, Intensified brine management, Modular membrane systems, and Electrified treatment systems, collectively known as the A-PRIME areas. Technological advances in these different areas will enable nontraditional source waters to achieve pipe parity with traditional supplies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) Industrial Sector Technology Roadmap 2021

The National Alliance for Water Innovation (NAWI) is a research consortium formed to accelerate transformative research in desalination and treatment to lower the cost and energy required to produce clean water from nontraditional water sources and realize a circular water economy. NAWI's goal is to enable the manufacturing of energy-efficient desalination technologies in the United States at a lower cost with the same (or higher) quality and reduced environmental impact for 90 percent of nontraditional water sources within the next 10 years. The nontraditional source waters of interest include brackish water; seawater; produced and extracted water; power, mining, industrial, municipal, and agricultural waste waters. When these desalination and treatment technologies are fully developed and utilized, they will be able to contribute to the water needs for many existing end-use sectors. NAWI has identified five end-use sectors that are critical to the U.S. economy for further exploration: Power, Resource Extraction, Industry, Municipal, and Agriculture (PRIMA). This Industrial Sector roadmap aims to advance desalination and treatment of nontraditional source waters for beneficial use in public water supplies by identifying research and development (R&D) opportunities that help overcome existing treatment challenges. Under NAWI's vision, the transition from a linear to a circular water economy with nontraditional source waters will be achieved by advancing desalination and reuse technologies in six key areas: Autonomous operations, Precision separations, Resilient treatment and transport, Intensified brine management, Modular membrane systems, and Electrified treatment systems, collectively known as the A-PRIME areas. Technological advances in these different areas will enable nontraditional source waters to achieve pipe parity with traditional supplies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Summary of Expansions and Updates in GREET ® 2021

The GREET® (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model has been developed by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). GREET is a life-cycle analysis (LCA) tool, structured to systematically examine the energy and environmental effects of a wide variety of transportation fuels and vehicle technologies in major transportation sectors (i.e., road, air, marine, and rail) and other end-use sectors, and energy systems. Within the transportation sector, GREET covers road, air, water, and rail transportation sub-sectors. Recently, GREET was expanded to cover the building sector. Historically, GREET includes LCA of various materials such as steel, aluminum, cement, and different plastic types. Argonne has expanded and updated the model in various sectors in GREET 2021, and this report provides a summary of the release.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Comparison of Multiple Macroalgae Cultivation Systems and End-Use Strategies of Saccharina latissima and Gracilaria tikvahiae Based on Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment

Macroalgae can be processed into various products with the potential to substitute land-based crops; their cultivation can bioextract nutrients from coastal waters. This study investigated the economic cost and environmental impacts of multiple seaweed cultivation platforms, cultivation strategies, and processing/end-use strategies through techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) with a focus on Saccharina latissima and Gracilaria tikvahiae. Cultivation platforms included single-layer longline, dual-layer longline, single-layer strip, and dual-layer strip systems. Processing/end-use products included seaweed to biofuel, dried sea vegetables, marketable commercial fertilizer, and animal feed. Economic and environmental costs decreased with dual-layer and strip cultivation systems. Cultivation costs were highest using the common single-layer longline system ($4.44 kg−1 dry weight (dw) S. latissima and $6.73 kg−1 dw G. tikvahiae when cultivated on rotation). The use of the dual-layer strip system reduced cultivation costs to $2.19 kg−1 dw for S. latissima and $3.43 kg−1 dw for G. tikvahiae. Seaweed drying was the major contributor to economic and environmental costs for macroalgae processing. Yet, all scenarios achieved environmental benefits for marine eutrophication. The best environmental performance was observed when biomass was processed to dry sea vegetables, assuming the offset of land-based vegetable production, or used as biofeedstock for anaerobic digestion for combined heat and power.

Wu, Jingjing (ORCID:0000000305311353)↗

Idaho National Laboratory Water Assessment

Established in 1949, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) complex of national laboratories. INL performs work in each of the strategic goal areas of the department: energy, national security, science, and environment, and is the nation’s center for nuclear energy research and development. Located in southeastern Idaho, its physical footprint includes 569,180 acres of federally owned land. A water balance for the fiscal year (FY) 2022 year was conducted for INL to identify major water using equipment and calculate the end-use categories. FY 2022 was selected as the evaluation year per the DOE Sustainability Performance Office. This report provides an analysis of facilities on the INL Site operated by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC (BEA). This water balance report focused on the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) Complex, Materials and Fuels Complex, Idaho Falls campus, and Central Facilities Area campuses, which consumed 98% of the 540,611 thousand gallons (kGal) of water used by INL in FY 2022. The resulting water balance identified the use categories for 75.3% of the FY 2022 water consumption.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Potential for Electrons to Molecules Using Solar Energy

Solar photovoltaics (PV) do and will continue to play an important role in the electric power sector and can potentially support other sectors that are in need of decarbonized energy sources. Chemicals such as hydrogen, ammonia, and hydrocarbons including ethylene are currently produced from natural gas and crude oil. Thus, processes to produce them emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases both directly and in upstream feedstock recovery processes. Electrons-to-molecules (E2M) technologies are being developed to convert carbon dioxide, water, and atmospheric nitrogen to desired chemical products and they are large electricity loads. Thus, they are emerging as a potential applications for PV. In its essence, they can act as electrochemical energy storage, thereby providing a means to further utilize the energy generated from PV and store it in molecular form. E2M systems offer an array of potential products and system designs that can be tailored to different end-uses and applications. It involves electrochemical conversion which uses electricity to break molecular bonds and produce new molecules. Various electrochemical conversion technologies split water into hydrogen and oxygen, reduce carbon dioxide into other hydrocarbon molecules, and several other possible combinations. While this Chapter does not attempt to provide an exhaustive summary or analysis of the potential products from E2M systems, it does provide an initial overview of the potential opportunities and challenges for PV and E2M systems in this space. This Chapter considers the potential for E2M to produce key chemicals and fuels that currently rely on hydrocarbons for production, either as a reactant or a source of high-grade heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

U.S. Building Stock Characterization Study: A National Typology for Decarbonizing U.S. Buildings

To support the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Advanced Building Construction (ABC) Collaborative, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been tasked with characterizing the U.S. building stock and developing a national typology of buildings. The potential use cases of such a typology are flexible and evolving, but in this initial phase, the primary intention is to help identify technology requirements and engineering solutions for moving the U.S. building stock toward a zero-carbon future by mid-century. This typology will also support the development of appropriate ABC research goals for existing buildings, such as cost targets for new technology development, and in a later phase, the typology can be used to support the implementation of ABC solutions by informing market aggregation and business model development. The ABC Initiative invests in new technologies that enable high building performance, can be deployed quickly with minimal onsite construction time, and are affordable and appealing to building owners, investors, and occupants. Funding awardees use many innovations, including new building materials, 3D printing, offsite manufacturing, robotics, and digital art-to-part. Although the goals of ABC cover a broad range of objectives around energy, comfort, and health, the primary ABC-related application of this national building characterization study is the development of retrofit packages that can be applied to reduce thermal loads in buildings. Retrofit packages will be determined collaboratively by the DOE and the ABC Collaborative. We anticipate a range of upgrade measures covering envelope-, HVAC-, and water-heating-related loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Household energy resilience in extreme weather events: An investigation of energy service importance, HVAC usage behaviors, and willingness to pay

Household energy resilience, particularly maintaining essential energy services within an acceptable and affordable level, is critical during extreme weather events (e.g., winter storms, heat waves) with power shortages or outages. However, the research on the importance and acceptable compromise levels of energy services, HVAC usage behavior changes, and willingness to pay (WTP) for energy services during disasters is limited. Therefore, this study investigates the importance and compromise of household energy services, HVAC usage behaviors, and WTP, as three key dimensions of household energy resilience, in both normal days and disaster scenarios through surveys (n=485). First, 12 common residential end-uses are grouped into high, mid, and low-priority services using hierarchical clustering, in which high-priority services (perceived as important and un-compromisable) include food cooking and storage (refrigerator and freezer) and thermal comfort (space heating and cooling), mid-priority services involve water heating and lighting, while low-priority services are mostly related to entertainment and housework (e.g., TV, laundry). Also, HVAC use patterns demonstrate that occupants become more energy conservative during disasters, e.g., reducing durations of running HVAC and adjusting temperature setpoints to save energy. In terms of energy cost, approximately 60% of respondents are willing to pay more to maintain energy services during disasters, although only 13% are prepared to pay over double the normal energy prices. The regression models further reveal that household energy resilience varies across different sociodemographic groups (e.g., age, income, family size) and is impacted by disaster experience and beliefs in clean energy and climate. In conclusion, these research findings provide important perspectives to understand household energy resilience and inform measures for disaster adaptation of households in extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimizing mixed cool thermal storage systems across a connected community

A high level of electric demand flexibility must be integrated into our building infrastructure to enable greater renewable energy penetration in the grid. In the U.S., 9% of electricity generated is used to cool buildings in a periodic manner, making this end-use an ideal target for active management through cool thermal energy storage (CTES) technologies. Historic uses for CTES are designed around central chilled water plants, but these systems cool less than 25% of U.S. commercial floorspace. Emerging technologies are under development to serve the many smaller distributed cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), and have the potential to add CTES to an additional 66% of cooled commercial floorspace. However, these unitary thermal storage systems (UTSS) lack the modeling and analysis tools to evaluate them in the future interactive grid context. Here, this study develops the modeling and optimization tools necessary to simultaneously examine central and distributed ice storage systems within the multi-building, connected community context. An integrated simulation-optimization workflow is created to allow for rapid customized analysis. Results demonstrate the energy and flexibility tradeoffs of various implementations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Techno-economic and life cycle analysis of synthetic natural gas production from low-carbon H 2 and point-source or atmospheric CO 2 in the United States

Synthetic natural gas (SNG) is of great interest in reducing fossil energy consumption while maintaining compatibility with existing NG infrastructure and end-use applications equipment. SNG can be produced using clean H 2 generated from renewable or nuclear energy and CO 2 captured from stationary sources or the atmosphere. In this study, we develop an engineering process model of SNG production using Aspen Plus® and production scales reported by the industry. We examine the levelized cost and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of SNG production under various CO 2 supply scenarios. Considering the higher cost of H 2 transportation compared with CO 2 transportation, we assume that CO 2 feedstock is transported via pipeline to the H 2 production location, which is collocated with the SNG plant. We also evaluate the cost of CO 2 captured from the atmosphere, assuming the direct air capture process can occur near the SNG facility. Depending on the CO 2 supply chain, the levelized cost of SNG is estimated to be in the range of $\$45–76$ per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on a higher heating value (HHV) basis. The SNG production cost may be reduced to $\$27–57$/MMBtu-HHV by applying a tax credit available in the United States for low-carbon H 2 production (45V). With a lower electricity price of 3¢/kWh for water electrolysis and accounting for a 45V tax credit, the SNG cost reaches parity with the cost of fossil NG. Depending on the CO 2 supply chain, SNG can reduce life cycle GHG emissions by 52–88% compared with fossil NG.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Design, modeling and simulation of nuclear-powered integrated energy systems with cascaded heating applications

Nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (IES) consist of a variety of energy generation and conversion technologies and can be used to meet heterogeneous end uses (e.g., electricity, heat, and cooling demands). In addition to supply-demand balance, end-use heat demands usually require heat supply of certain temperature ranges. The effective and efficient utilization of heat produced within an IES is, therefore, a critical challenge. Here, this paper examines design options of an IES that includes heating processes of multiple temperature grades. We investigate a cascaded design configuration, where the remaining residual heat after high-grade heating processes [e.g., hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE)] is recovered to meet the low-grade heating needs [e.g., district heating (DH)]. Additionally, a thermal energy storage system is integrated into the DH system to address the imbalance between heat supply and demand. This paper primarily focuses on the design and modeling of the proposed system and evaluates its operation with a 24-h transient process simulation using a DH demand profile with hourly resolution. The results indicate that the residual heat from the HTSE exhaust is insufficient for the DH demand, and additional topping heat directly from the reactor process steam is needed. Furthermore, the inclusion of thermal energy storage within the DH system provides the necessary balance between thermal generation and demand, thereby ensuring a consistent rated temperature of the DH supply water. This approach helps minimize the control actions needed on the reactor side.

08 HYDROGEN↗