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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
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NASA NTRS2016

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

water scarcity↗
NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗
NASA NTRS2021

Designing a Decontamination Solution for the Low-Earth-Orbit, Cryogenic SPHEREx Mission

To address the scientific goals of NASA’s astrophysics division, the JPL and Caltech’s SPHEREx mission conducts the first near-infrared all-sky spectral survey in low-earth-orbit using a passively-cooled, cryogenic telescope. Several unique water contamination issues arise due to the combination of cryogenic operation temperatures and the limited temperature control authority of passive cooling. Because water molecules have adsorption bands within the wavelengths of interest for SPHEREx’s survey, it is imperative that water contamination be controlled and minimized. In this work, a model is developed for the SPHEREx mission to predict the transport and accumulation of outgassed water onto sensitive payload components. The model utilizes the time dependent thermal profiles of the individual payload components, initial water content, and spacecraft geometry to calculate the time dependent water diffusion, transport, and adsorption. This model is subsequently used to predict water contamination risks and design decontamination solutions for each risk. Two major water contamination risks were predicted, water accumulation during cooldown and on cryogenic surfaces during the mission. The first risk occurs during the cooldown of the payload to cryogenic temperatures, predicting water accumulation on optical surfaces in excess of the allowable levels. To mitigate this accumulation, the temperature of the optical surfaces is controlled during cooldown through a combination of heaters and spacecraft pointing. The second risk is that over the course of the mission, is unavoidable water accumulation onto the payload thermal system’s cryogenic surfaces, possibly jeopardizing thermal performance and temperature stability, both of which are required for science success. To decontaminate any water that had collected onto cryogenic thermal system surfaces, a decontamination maneuver was designed. In this decontamination maneuver, cryogenic surfaces of the thermal system are warmed to a temperature where water will desorb by spacecraft pointing while still meeting all avoidance constraints, and thereby avoiding undue risk to the observatory hardware. Through application of the developed analytical model and inclusion of the decontamination maneuver in the mission design, SPHEREx can confidently demonstrate that it is able to decontaminate, at the start of and during the mission as needed to meet its end of life science performance requirements.

Soares, Carolos E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata))were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (1825),convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width(TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies)have a high impact on current TRW (r 0.600.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest steppe)and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Fir Decline and Mortality in the Southern Siberian Mountains

Increased dieback and mortality of dark needle conifer (DNC) stands (composed of fir (Abies sibirica),Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and spruce (Picea obovata)) were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed spatial and temporal patterns of fir decline and mortality in the southern Siberian Mountains based on satellite, in situ and dendrochronological data. The studied stands are located within the boundary between DNC taiga to the north and forest-steppe to the south. Fir decline and mortality were observed to originate where topographic features contributed to maximal water-stress risk, i.e., steep (18 deg to 25 deg), convex, south-facing slopes with a shallow well-drained root zone. Fir regeneration survived droughts and increased stem radial growth, while upper canopy trees died. Tree ring width (TRW) growth negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit (VPD), drought index and occurrence of late frosts, and positively with soil water content. Previous year growth conditions (i.e., drought index, VPD, soil water anomalies) have a high impact on current TRW (r = 0.60 to 0.74). Fir mortality was induced by increased water stress and severe droughts (as a primary factor) in synergy with bark-beetles and fungi attacks (as secondary factors). Dendrochronology data indicated that fir mortality is a periodic process. In a future climate with increased aridity and drought frequency, fir (and Siberian pine) may disappear from portions of its current range (primarily within the boundary with the forest- steppe) and is likely to be replaced by drought-tolerant species such as Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica.

conifer mortality↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

spruce decline↗
NASA NTRS2016

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called ''dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Conifer Mortality↗
NASA NTRS1975

Present and potential land use mapping in Mexico

The Mexican Water Plan (MWP) conducted studies of present and potential land use in Mexico using LANDSAT-1 satellite imagery. Present land use studies were carried out all over the country (197 million hectares); nine soil uses were mapped according to the first classification level recommended by the U.S. Geological Survey. Also 6.3 million hectares of land with advanced erosion were detected. Work was executed at a rate of 8 million hectares per month; reliability was 90% and the cost of only 0.1 cents/hectare. The potential land use study was performed in 45 million hectares at a rate of 4 million hectares per month and at a cost of 0.33 cents/hectare. Soil units according to FAO classification were delineated scale 1:1 million; interpretative maps were also prepared dealing with potential agricultural productivity carrying capacity for cattle, water, erosion risk, and slope ranges.

Garduno, H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Technologies to Prevent Precipitation During Water Recovery from Urine

The International Space Station (ISS) Urine Processor Assembly (UPA) experienced a hardware failure in the Distillation Assembly (DA) in October 2010. Initially the UPA was operated to recover 85% of the water from urine through distillation, concentrating the contaminants in the remaining urine. The DA failed due to precipitation of calcium sulfate (gypsum) which caused a loss of UPA function. The ISS UPA operations have been modified to only recover 70% of the water minimizing gypsum precipitation risk but substantially increasing water resupply needs. This paper describes the feasibility assessment of several technologies (ion exchange, chelating agents, threshold inhibitors, and Lorentz devices) to prevent gypsum precipitation. The feasibility assessment includes the development of assessment methods, chemical modeling, bench top testing, and validation testing in a flight-like ground UPA unit. Ion exchange technology has been successfully demonstrated and has been recommended for further development. The incorporation of the selected technology will enable water recovery to be increased from 70% back to the original 85% and improve the ISS water balance.

Broyan, James L., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Climate-Induced Mortality of Siberian Pine and Fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called "dark needle conifers", DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC - forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Viacheslav I Kharuk↗
NASA NTRS1992

Health-risk based approach to setting drinking water standards for long-term space missions

In order to develop plausible and appropriate drinking water contaminant standards for longer-term NASA space missions, such as those planned for the Space Exploration Initiative, a human health risk characterization was performed using toxicological and exposure values typical of space operations and crew. This risk characterization showed that the greatest acute waterborne health concern was from microbial infection leading to incapacitating gastrointestinal illness. Ingestion exposure pathways for toxic materials yielded de minimus acute health risks unlikely to affect SEI space missions. Risks of chronic health problems were within acceptable public health limits. Our analysis indicates that current Space Station Freedom maximum contamination levels may be unnecessarily strict. We propose alternative environmental contaminant values consistent with both acceptable short and long-term crew health safety.

Macler, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

LCROSS - Lunar Impactor: Pioneering Risk-Tolerant Exploration in Search for Water on the Moon

The Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) was launched with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) on June 18, 2009 to determine the presence of water-ice in a permanently shadowed crater on the south pole of the Moon. However, an equally important purpose was to pioneer low-cost, quick-turnaround NASA missions that could accept a higher-than-normal-level of technical risk. When the LCROSS mission proposal was competitively selected by the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate to design, build, and launch a spacecraft in 31 months with a $79M cost-capped budget and a fixed mass allocation, NASA Ames Research Center and its industry partner, Northrop-Grumman, needed a game-changing approach to be successful. That approach was a ground-breaking combination of having a risk-tolerant NASA Class D mission status and finding the right balance point between the inflexible elements of cost and schedule and the newly-flexible element of technical capability.

Andrews, Daniel R.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Crew State and Risk Model Development to Predict Hydration Status During Extravehicular Activity Training Events

Introduction: Hydration is critical for optimal human health and performance and dehydration can lead to impaired cardiovascular function, thermal dysregulation, decreased blood plasma volume, and cognitive impacts, particularly during physical activity. Prolonged and repeated extravehicular activities (EVA) without sufficiently available drinking water may increase risk for dehydration, which could impair crew health and impact mission success. Understanding hydration needs and potential effects on health and performance are necessary to optimize crew well-being and enable successful EVA objectives. This study aims to develop a model of hydration status during EVA using water balance techniques. Methods: Water balance measures were collected on 15 healthy astronauts who performed ≈6-hour simulated microgravity extravehicular activity (EVA) training in the NASA Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL). Data collected included pre-and post-EVA nude body weight (BW), maximum absorption garment (MAG) weight, Disposable In-suit Drink Bag (DIDB) weight, urine specific gravity (USG), and extra pre-EVA intake (W). Variables were combined to create the water balance model as pre-EVA (Hn)= BWn+ MAGn+ DIDBn+ Wnand post EVA (Hn+1) = BWn+1+ MAGn+1+ DIDBn+1. Urine specific gravity values were used to refine water balance measures into hydration categories: Hydrated, Marginally Hydrated, and Dehydrated. Results: Pre-EVA modeling indicated53% of crew were hydrated, 20% were marginally hydrated, and 27% were dehydrated. Alternately, Hn+1 showed 13% of crew remained hydrated, 47% were marginally hydrated, and 40% were dehydrated at the end of the EVA. Furthermore, 75% of the crewmembers who started sufficiently hydrated finished the run marginally hydrated or dehydrated. According to USG indices presented by Casa and Lawrence, et al. (2000), only 25% of the crew started and remained hydrated throughout the EVA, and those who were dehydrated at the outset stayed dehydrated. Conclusion: Model outcomes assessing hydration status during 6-hour simulated microgravity EVAs demonstrate the necessity to further address hydration requirements for optimal human performance during spaceflight and EVA. This study enables additional baseline development of the Crew State and Risk Model Hydration, Nutrition, and Waste Management component that aims to provide individualized crew state and risk predictions during EVAs. Reference: Casa, D. J., Armstrong, L. E., et al. (2000). National Athletic Trainers’ Association Position Statement: Fluid Replacement for Athletes. Journal of Athletic Training, 35:212-224.

L Cooper↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study of Aircraft Structural Response and Occupant Loading During a Ditching Event Utilizing LS-DYNA Simulation

In this study, the capability of finite element model (FEM) analysis to assess aircraft structural response and occupant injury risk during aircraft water ditching conditions was evaluated. A FEM of the Fokker F28 aircraft, previously validated against full-scale crash test data, was simulated in a realistic water impact environment utilizing recorded conditions from the ditching of US Airways Flight 1549 into the Hudson River. The FEM of the F28 aircraft, was developed from a NASTRAN loads model provided by the vehicle manufacturer, calibrated using component fuselage drop-tests, and validated through test-analysis comparisons from a full-scale crash test of the F28 onto soil. Simulation results are presented in several categories: vehicle kinematics, structural accelerations, damage, occupant responses, and injury risk predictions. Results were consistent with the general outcomes of Flight 1549, indicating that the developed vehicle FEM, validated against land impact test data, may provide an effective tool for evaluating water ditching events.

Jacob Putnam↗
NASA NTRS2006

Experimental Evaluation of a Water Shield for a Surface Power Reactor

As part of the Vision for Space Exploration the end of the next decade will bring man back to the surface of the moon. One of the most critical issues for the establishment of human presence on the moon will be the availability of compact power sources. The establishment of man on the moon will require power from greater than 10's of kWt's in follow on years. Nuclear reactors are extremely we11 suited to meet the needs for power generation on the lunar or Martian surface. reactor system. Several competing concepts exist for lightweight, safe, robust shielding systems such as a water shield, lithium hydride (LiH), Boron Carbide, and others. Water offers several potential advantages, including reduced cost, reduced technical risk, and reduced mass. Water has not typically been considered for space reactor applications because of the need for gravity to remove the potential for radiation streaming paths. The water shield concept relies on predictions of passive circulation of the shield water by natural convection to adequately cool the shield. This prediction needs to be experimentally evaluated, especially for shields with complex geometries. MSFC has developed the experience and fac necessary to do this evaluation in the Early Flight Fission - Test Facility (EFF-TF).

Pearson, J. Boise↗
NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Evaluation of Convective Heat Transfer in a Water Shield for a Surface Power Reactor

As part of the Vision for Space Exploration, the end of the next decade will bring man back to the surface of the moon. A crucial issue for the establishment of human presence on the moon will be the availability of compact power sources. This presence could require greater than 10's of kWt's in follow on years. Nuclear reactors are well suited to meet the needs for power generation on the lunar or Martian surface. Radiation shielding is a key component of any surface power reactor system. Several competing concepts exist for lightweight, safe, robust shielding systems such as a water shield, lithium hydride (LiH), and boron carbide. Water offers several potential advantages, including reduced cost, reduced technical risk, and reduced mass. Water has not typically been considered for space reactor applications because of the need for gravity to fix the location of any vapor that could form radiation streaming paths. The water shield concept relies on the predictions of passive circulation of the shield water by natural convection to adequately cool the shield. This prediction needs to be experimentally evaluated, especially for shields with complex geometries. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed the experience and facilities necessary to do this evaluation in its Early Flight Fission - Test Facility (EFF-TF).

Pearson J. Boise↗