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DOE OSTI2025

Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply In-frastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX

Datasets supporting findings and visualization behind Okoye and McManamay (2025) Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply Infrastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX. Environmental Research Communications, DOI: 10.57931/2563186 These datasets contains the results of a site selection analysis for municipal water supply planning across multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1–5) and hard scenario classification of water systems in San Antonio, TX. It includes data at the resolution of individual surface water supply sources (COMIDs) and integrates a wide range of hydrologic, socioeconomic, infrastructural, and scenario-based planning variables. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Dataset_SSP1_SSP4.xlsx - Contains data used for site selection optimization under SSP1 to SSP4. This dataset was generated based on multi-indicator computations (e.g., WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, WIC), scenario demand projections, and resource and spatial constraints, excluding new reservoir values. Dataset_SSP5.xlsx - Used for site optimization under SSP5. Unlike Dataset_SSP1_SSP4, this dataset includes new reservoir features with updated calculations of WAI, WTC, and WIC to reflect the added infrastructure and supply potential. hard_classification.xlsx - Provides the scenario classification output for each site. Includes both the initial scenario classification based on Euclidean Distance and adjusted classifications based on 30% change reduction BAU.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing spatially optimized water supply sites per SSP under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) water demand strategy LowGW.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing optimized site selections under the Low Groundwater strategy

geospatial↗

DOE OSTI2023

Discovering Reactant Supply Pathways at Electrode/PEM Reaction Interfaces Via a Tailored Interface-Visible Characterization Cell

In situ and micro-scale visualization of electrochemical reactions and multiphase transports on the interface of porous transport electrode (PTE) materials and solid polymer electrolyte (SPE) has been one of the greatest challenges for electrochemical energy conversion devices, such as proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells (PEMECs), CO 2 reduction electrolyzers, PEM fuel cells, etc. Here, an interface-visible characterization cell (IV-CC) is developed to in situ visualize micro-scaled and rapid electrochemical reactions and transports in PTE/SPE interfaces. Taking the PEMEC of a green hydrogen generator as a study case, the unanticipated local gas blockage, micro water droplets, and their evolution processes are successfully visualized on PTE/PEM interfaces in a practical PEMEC device, indicating the existence of unconventional reactant supply pathways in PEMs. Further comprehensive results reveal that PEM water supplies to reaction interfaces are significantly impacted with current densities. Here these results provide critical insights about the reaction interface optimization and mass transport enhancement in various electrochemical energy conversion devices.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming

Abstract Light-absorbing particles (LAP) deposited on seasonal snowpack can result in snow darkening, earlier snowmelt, and regional climate change. However, their future evolution and contributions to snowpack change relative to global warming remain unclear. Here, using Earth System Model simulations, we project significantly reduced black carbon deposition by 2081-2100, which reduces the December-May average LAP-induced radiative forcing in snow over the Northern Hemisphere from 1.3 Wm −2 during 1995-2014 to 0.65 (SSP126) and 0.49 (SSP585) Wm −2 . We quantify separately the contributions of climate change and LAP evolution on future snowpack and demonstrate that projected LAP changes in snow over the Tibetan Plateau will alleviate future snowpack loss due to climate change by 52.1 ± 8.0% and 8.0 ± 1.1% at the end of the century for the two scenarios, mainly due to reduced black carbon contamination. Our findings highlight a cleaner snow future and its benefits for future water supply from snowmelt especially under the sustainable development pathway of SSP126.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Complete Evaluation of ION Cost Reduction Opportunities for LWRS Pathways

The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), plays a pivotal role in enhancing the sustainability, safety, and economic viability of the nation's fleet of nuclear power plants. This program collaborates extensively with industry, vendors, suppliers, regulatory agencies, and research and development organizations within the nuclear energy sector. The overarching goals of the LWRS program are twofold: to provide innovative science and technology-based solutions to the nuclear industry, surpassing current performance models, and to manage the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) to extend the operational lifetimes of nuclear power plants safely, efficiently, and economically. The program focuses on five research and development pathways: Plant Modernization: This pathway seeks to enhance the economic viability of nuclear power plants in evolving energy markets through innovation, efficiency improvements, and digital transformation. The integration of digital technologies into plant operations is a central theme, aiming to create a seamless digital environment that improves plant economics and safety. Flexible Plant Operation and Generation: Research efforts in this pathway explore opportunities for light-water reactors (LWRs) to directly supply energy to industrial processes, diversifying revenue generation approaches and improving economic sustainability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental life cycle of fentanyl: From the cradle to an unknown grave

The lack of available information on the presence and persistence of fentanyl in the environment is a significant gap in the technical literature. Although the origins of the opioid in the environment are well-known because they follow the same pathways of other drug-related environmental contaminants, the downstream effects of fentanyl in the water supply and its retention in soil are less understood. The characterization of fentanyl and its potential degradation products in complex environmental samples such as soil is severely understudied. Very few articles are available that work to identify fentanyl and its degradation products in complex samples or name the possible hazards that may result from environmental exposure and degradation. Therefore, the objectives were to identify available articles focused on environmental fentanyl and its pathways and highlight quantifiable research or results that included specific degradation products or downstream effects. Research articles focused on fentanyl between 2000 and 2024 were identified and reviewed and then filtered using Boolean search terms for environmental parameters. Various studies have determined that trace levels of fentanyl can be found in a variety of environments, and additional data suggest preferential partitioning into soils from water and long-term persistence. Despite this knowledge, very little data exists on the long-term downstream effects of fentanyl or its analogs. As the chronic effects from low-level fentanyl exposure are currently unknown, this lack of insight brings to the forefront the need for further research to improve our understanding of fentanyl persistence, degradation, and toxicity within the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗

DOE OSTI2024

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing heat pump water heater performance with embedded phase change materials thermal energy storage: First hour rating improvement and demand response operation

The increasing global emphasis on energy efficiency and sustainability has put heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) in the spotlight as an energy-efficient alternative to traditional water heating systems. However, their widespread adoption is limited by challenges such as insufficient First Hour Rating (FHR), suboptimal control mechanisms, and limited flexibility for demand response operations. Here, to address these limitations, this study proposes an innovative HPWH system integrated with embedded phase change material (PCM)-based thermal energy storage (TES). The research introduces a novel design and control strategy that leverages optimized PCM integration to enhance thermal storage capacity, improve hot water delivery during peak demand, and increase load-shifting potential. A combination of system modeling, performance simulation, and demand response control strategy evaluation was employed to quantify the benefits of PCM integration. Results demonstrate that the proposed PCM-TES HPWH system significantly enhances FHR, with an optimal 7.0 lb. of PCM increasing FHR by over 26 %—from 62 to 78 gal—for a standard 50-gal HPWH. Additionally, under advanced demand response operation using a preheat strategy, the system reduces the percentage of control temperature out-of-band time from 65 % (conventional HPWH) to just 11.6 %, enabling a more stable and efficient hot water supply. This research contributes a novel PCM-embedded HPWH design and control framework that addresses both performance and grid-interactivity challenges. The findings offer a viable pathway to enhancing the operational efficiency, flexibility, and grid responsiveness of residential water heating systems.

Demand response control↗

DOE OSTI2022

M2CT-22IN1202096 Design for Carbon Conversion Product Pathways with Nuclear Power Plant Integration

Coal is a globally abundant resource that historically has been used for power generation via combustion. As the power industry replaces coal with cleaner methods of generation, energy-rich coal could be used in other chemical and fuel applications. This study presents a coal utilization option in which coal combustion is replaced with a carbon-free nuclear power plant and the coal is upgraded to valuable products for a variety of markets. Coal is prepared for conversion first by the pyrolysis process, which will optimize solid, liquid, and gaseous products based on the market size and potential product value, maximizing the monetary value of coal. This process is designed using bituminous coal from the Appalachian region as a basis to provide a pathway to preserve or transition coal-related jobs and create new jobs associated with the clean energy transition. Process modeling in the AspenOne Suite will be used to determine each component’s sensitivities, costs, inputs, and outputs. Dispatch modeling in the FORCE toolset will optimize the entire system and calculate the NPV for the refinery lifetime. Advanced and light-water reactors are considerations to supply the heat, steam, and electricity to the process. This paper focuses on the technical and market analysis used to determine the optimal processes and product pathways for the carbon refinery. Product pathways are on activated carbon, formic acid synthesis, and methanol synthesis for further upgrading to marketable chemical and polymer products.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

How Rains and Floods Become Groundwater: Understanding Recharge Pathways With Stable and Cosmogenic Isotopes

Anthropogenic climate change leads to increased precipitation intensity and exacerbated droughts in California, challenging the reliability and drought resiliency of water supply. Storing floodwater underground via managed aquifer recharge can mitigate these effects through direct infiltration or streambed infiltration. Seasonally dry streams (arroyos) already play an important part in managing groundwater recharge to the Livermore basin (CA). Understanding how, when and where stormwater and arroyo water infiltrate is critical to effectively utilise this strategy. To track water from recent storms (water year 2022–2023, WY23) into the Livermore Valley Groundwater Basin, we analysed stable water isotopes (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) in combination with naturally occurring radioactive isotopic tracers, sulphur-35 ( 35 S, t ½ = 87 days) and tritium ( 3 H, t ½ = 12.3 years). By comparing measurements of δ 18 O, 35 S and 3 H in arroyos to precipitation and groundwater, we classified the relative age and identified source of recharge to 16 wells near two arroyos. Two wells contained water with recent recharge (from WY23) from local precipitation. One well had recent recharge from variable (precipitation and imported water) sources. One well contained imported water recharge. Three wells contained water from mixed recent and older (pre-WY23) waters, from local precipitation sources. Two wells contained recent recharge from local mine settling ponds. Seven wells had older recharge from local precipitation sources. This combination of isotopes allows us to delineate where local and imported water recharges in this highly managed basin and identify locations where managed aquifer recharge is contributing to rapid groundwater infiltration. Our combined interpretation of isotopic water ages and sources in the context of land use shows that local infiltration of precipitation in open spaces is an important recharge mechanism, in addition to the managed arroyo recharge. Finally, a broader familiarity with 35 S will enable more extensive research on the infiltration of urban floodwaters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Reactor Heat Extraction for Synthetic Fuel Plants

This report looks at the viability and best approach when producing synthetic fuels using heat and power supplied by advanced nuclear energy systems. The report looks at a low temperature integration pathway with four types of advanced reactors: a pressurized water reactor (PWR), an advanced light water reactor (A-LWR), a sodium fast reactor (SFR), and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of the coupling system between the nuclear plant and the synthetic fuel systems is performed with the goal of identifying the reliability of such a thermal delivery system. Furthermore, a high temperature pathway is investigated for synfuel coupling to determine if this is more efficient and more cost effective as a coupling approach.

10 - SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

NPP Simulators for Coupled Thermal and Electric Power Dispatch

The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program within the United States Department of Energy supports extending the operation of the U.S. commercial nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet. Within the LWRS program, the Flexible Plant Operation and Generation (FPOG) Pathway works to diversify the revenue streams of light water reactors (LWRs) by opening opportunities for the co-generation of non-electric products in addition to supplying electrical power to the grid. Recent events have added greater motivation to these efforts. For example, the recent Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed by the U.S. federal government offers substantial tax incentives for producing clean hydrogen, the technology readiness level of dispatchable and high-efficiency hydrogen production has dramatically increased in a short time, and societal response to world climate change is driving a transition away from fossil fuels. Producing hydrogen with maximum efficiency using nuclear power requires dispatching both electrical and thermal power from the nuclear plant to the hydrogen plant, so testing concepts of operations for combined electrical and thermal power dispatch (TPD) from an NNP to a hydrogen plant is of interest. This report documents achievement of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program milestone “Install and demonstrate a vendor-developed simulator on the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory (HSS) for dispatch of LWR electrical power to a close-coupled electrolysis plant” with a due date of Dec. 22, 2022. Several factors provide motivation for this effort. Coupling the power generation deck of a nuclear power plant to a hydrogen production facility introduces new possibilities for operational transients that must be addressed. In particular, the performance of the integrated system during startup and shutdown of the hydrogen production facility, as well as offnormal conditions, need to be evaluated to ensure there are no adverse effects on the operation of the existing NPP. The concept of operations involving the NPP, the hydrogen plant, and the electric power grid must be tested using NPP simulators and operating procedures that have been modified for TPD operations. These tests must also include dynamic simulations of the coupled tertiary thermal and electric loads as well as coordinated activities with NPP operators, tertiary load operators and grid power coordinators. The report summarizes progress in developing and testing full-scope NPP simulators at the HSSL, including a generic BWR simulator from GSE Systems, Inc. and generic PWR simulator from Westinghouse. In the case of the TPD-GBWR Simulator from GSE Systems, Inc., a BWR is thermally coupled to a high temperature electrolysis (HTE) plant that produces hydrogen and oxygen from de-ionized water. The hydrogen plant is not explicitly simulated but only included as a transient heat sink. A thermal power dispatch (TPD) system transfers heat between the steam systems at the BWR and the hydrogen plant. Operational results from two versions of the modified simulator are presented. The first version uses synthetic oil as a heat transfer fluid in a closed delivery heat loop (DHL) that generates steam at the hydrogen plant. The second version uses steam as the heat transfer fluid in a delivery steam line (DSL) to provide steam to the hydrogen plant. For both versions, the estimated thermal power delivery distance is approximately one kilometer. The amount of thermal power dispatched in the simulators is 15% of the total reactor thermal power such that the simulators provide a tool to study the feasibility of coupling a BWR to industrial processes that benefit from a combination electrical and thermal power dispatch. Ongoing work within a CRADA is also developing a full-scope PWR simulator provided by Westinghouse for both thermal and electric power coupling. This simulator is based on a PWR plant with two three-loop Westinghouse reactors. Westinghouse PWRs are sufficiently similar that a simulator of a three-loop reactor is an appropriate representation for two-loop and four-loop PWR reactors. The three-loop simulator will initially be modified for close-coupling to a 100 MW HTE hydrogen production plant that will require approximately 25 MW of thermal power while operating at its maximum rated capacity. The simulator testing will include full coupling to dynamic simulations of a hydrogen production plant and a representative bulk electric grid. The simulator provided by Westinghouse is similar to the GPWR simulator that INL has already obtained from GSE Systems but has a few important added benefits. First, the Westinghouse simulator is based on digital controls and has additional screens that can be called up to show parameter trends to assist operators in decision-making. The Westinghouse simulator also has upgrades to the controls and hardware representations, such as valve actuators, that make it more realistic and flexible in terms of accurately sim

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2024

BioC2G Tool v1

The BioC2G tool provides an interface for running technoeconomic analyses and life-cycle assessments of biofuel and bioproduct production pathways. Models for the pathways are currently built into the tool: limonene, limonane, bisabolene, bisabolane, ethanol, isoprenol, DMCO, and HEFA. Additionally, a "Custom" option is available for analyzing a bioproduction pathway not included among the built-in examples. Users must supply key product properties and process parameters. Three types of model runs are available in the tool: minimum selling price (MSP), water consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Running the MSP model yields a breakdown of MSP by major process stage of production, along with a a table of estimated capital expenditures (CAPEX) and annual operating expenditures (OPEX). Running the water consumption and GHG models yields a breakdown of water consumed and carbon emissions respectively, per unit of end product. A breakdown of these metrics by major process stage is also provided. Model run results can be viewed in the web interface numerically and graphically, as well as downloaded in CSV format. Detailed documentation on model methodology and assumptions is also available for download.

Huntington, Tyler↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ultranano Titania: Selectively Ridding Water of Persistent Organic Pollutants

Persistent organic pollutants, including the EPA's “dirty dozen”, are difficult to remove from water supplies due to their chemical stability. Here, we report a stable oxide photocatalyst, ultranano titania (d < 2 nm) doped with iron, Fe•TiUNP, that efficiently mineralizes multiple persistent pollutants including aromatic compounds plus common troublesome, difficult-to-oxidize intermediates such as formaldehyde and acetone, netting mineralization of persistent pollutants. Efficiency stems from a direct charge-transfer pathway. The key role of iron doping is to lower the reduction potential of the photogenerated electron so that it is insufficient to reduce water, thus eliminating competition from the hydrogen evolution reaction. The reduction potential of the localized electron is similarly insufficient to reduce quinone, enabling breaking aromaticity. Specific results for degrading acetone, phenol, benzoic acid, and 1,4-benzoquinone are reported.

alcohols↗

DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling

The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Representing Climate Impacts in Scenaros

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Scenarios of future emissions and land use have been most commonly produced without accounting for the effects that climate impacts linked to those emissions and land use changes may have. The questions of how important such impacts could be, at the regional or global scale, has become an increasingly cogent one. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we implement climate impacts on water supply, agricultural productivity, and energy demand driven by climatic impact drivers whose evolution over the 21st century is representative of a climate consistent with GCAM's reference scenario and compare the output to the reference at both regional and global scales. We show that the impacts from the version of GCAM that uses GDP as an exogenous input are not sufficient to bend emission pathways at the global scale. However, we see effects emerge at the regional scale in terms of emissions, among other metrics linked to water, land and energy. We expect the impacts to become more significant at an aggregate, global scale in a forthcoming version of the model with endogenous GDP. Meanwhile, we document the mechanisms that drive the difference at regional scales which could still be significant in their impacts for individual economies and populations. Presenters: Dr. Claudia Tebaldi (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator(s): Jennifer Morris (MSD CoP SSG member), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 5, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Climate Scenarios↗

DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100

Overview Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Details This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Each folder is named as cmip6_{gcm}_{ensemble-member}_{ssp}. 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The table below summarizes the details of output variables within each scenario folder. | Output Variable | File Short Name | Spatial Resolution | Unit | | ----------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | --------------------- | | Runoff | q | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Runoff | Basin_runoff | GCAM basin | km3/month | | Runoff | Country_runoff | Country | km3/month | | Runoff | GCAMRegion_runoff | GCAM region | km3/month | | Streamflow | avgchflow | 0.5x0.5 degree | m3/second | | Potential Evapotranspiration | pet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Actual Evapotranspiration | aet | 0.5x0.5 degree | km3/month | | Accessible Water | accessible_water | GCAM basin | km3/year | | Hydropower Generation | actual_hydro | GCAM region | EJ/year |

Climate Change↗