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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Feeding Ten Billion People Is Possible Within Four Terrestrial Planetary Boundaries

Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water–nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals by all nations in 2015 is the first ever commitment to a world development path that safeguards the stability of the Earth system as a prerequisite for meeting universal human standards1. The longstanding challenge of achieving food security through sustainable agriculture is particularly acute in this context as world agriculture is a leading cause for the current transgressions of multiple planetary boundaries (PBs) globally and regionally2–5. The PB framework is a comprehensive scientific attempt to synoptically define our planet’s biogeophysical limits to anthropogenic interference. It suggests bounds to nine interacting processes that together delineate a Holocene-like Earth system state. The Holocene is chosen as the reference state as it is the only period known to provide a safe operating space for a world population of several billion people, and according to a precautionary principle, the PBs are set in sufficient distance from processes that may critically undermine Earth system resilience and global sustainability. A challenging question, thus, is whether human development goals such as food security can be met while maintaining multiple PBs along with their subglobal manifestations. Further PB transgressions could jeopardize the chances of providing sufficient food for a world population projected to be wealthier and reach >9 billion by 2050. This conundrum portrays a tradeoff between Earth’s biophysical carrying capacity and humankind’s rising food demand, calling in response for radical rethinking of food production and consumption patterns6–9. Yield gap closures, avoidance of excessive input use, shifts towards less resource-demanding diets, food waste reductions and efficient international trade are crucial options for sustainably increasing the food supply10–15. For example, enhancing water-use efficiency on irrigated and rain-fed farms can triple or quadruple crop yields in low-performing systems, suggesting possible global gains of >20% (ref. 16). Even higher gains appear feasible through globally optimized configurations of the land-use pattern17, and cutting food losses by half could generate food for another billion people18. Thus, collective large-scale implementation of such options could sustain food for a further growing world population19. Yet achieving this within a safe operating space as defined by PBs requires not only a halt to but actually a reversal of existing PB transgressions. Previous studies suggest that such a reconciliation might be possible, but these were based on aggregate representations of PBs (not accounting for the spatial patterns of limits, transgressions and interactions) or considered only one boundary in isolation17,20–23. Here, we systematically quantify to what extent current food production depends on local to global transgressions of the PBs for biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use and nitrogen (N) flows, along with the potential of a range of solutions to avoid these transgressions and still increase food supply (Table 1). To this end, we configured an internally consistent process-based model of the terrestrial biosphere including agriculture (LPJmL) with multiple spatially distributed PBs and their interactions. LPJmL is among the longest-established and best-evaluated biosphere models, showing robust performance regarding simulation of, for example, carbon, water and crop yield dynamics (Supplementary Figs. 1 and 2 and Supplementary Table 1; see ref. 24 for a comprehensive benchmarking and Supplementary Methods for more detail on model evaluations). In principle following established definitions4, we refine the computation of some PBs with respect to their regional patterns and interactions (Methods), providing globally gridded precautionary limits to human interference with the Earth system at a level of great detail. In particular, we account for the evidence that many PBs need to be represented spatially explicitly4 to cover their

Gerten, Dieter↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Transpiration and Water Use Efficiency Using Satellite and Field Observations

Structure and function of terrestrial plant communities bring about intimate relations between water, energy, and carbon exchange between land surface and atmosphere. Total evaporation, which is the sum of transpiration, soil evaporation and evaporation of intercepted water, couples water and energy balance equations. The rate of transpiration, which is the major fraction of total evaporation over most of the terrestrial land surface, is linked to the rate of carbon accumulation because functioning of stomata is optimized by both of these processes. Thus, quantifying the spatial and temporal variations of the transpiration efficiency (which is defined as the ratio of the rate of carbon accumulation and transpiration), and water use efficiency (defined as the ratio of the rate of carbon accumulation and total evaporation), and evaluation of modeling results against observations, are of significant importance in developing a better understanding of land surface processes. An approach has been developed for quantifying spatial and temporal variations of transpiration, and water-use efficiency based on biophysical process-based models, satellite and field observations. Calculations have been done using concurrent meteorological data derived from satellite observations and four dimensional data assimilation for four consecutive years (1987-1990) over an agricultural area in the Northern Great Plains of the US, and compared with field observations within and outside the study area. The paper provides substantive new information about interannual variation, particularly the effect of drought, on the efficiency values at a regional scale.

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

DSSAT↗
NASA NTRS2016

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗
NASA NTRS2018

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗