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Atmospheric Electrical Activity and the Prospects for Improving Short-Term, Weather Forcasting

How might lightning measurements be used to improve short-term (0-24 hr) weather forecasting? We examine this question under two different prediction strategies. These include integration of lightning data into short-term forecasts (nowcasts) of convective (including severe) weather hazards and the assimilation of lightning data into cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction models. In each strategy we define specific metrics of forecast improvement and a progress assessment. We also address the conventional observing system deficiencies and potential gap-filling information that can be addressed through the use of the lightning measurement.

Goodman, Steven J.

Solar activity and changes in atmospheric circulation

Several related investigations of the possible influence of the solar and interplanetary magnetic sector structure on the atmospheric circulation are described. The area of low pressure troughs in the northern hemisphere has a minimum about one day after a warped heliospheric current sheet has been carried past the earth by the solar wind. Possible physical mechanisms could relate to phase changes in meteorological processes, changes in atmospheric electricity or changes in solar extreme ultraviolet irradiation. A quantitative analysis suggests that the accuracy of weather forcasting decreases during the two days after the warped heliospheric current sheet has passed the earth. A description is given of several further investigations in progress.

Wilcox, J. M.

GLAS Fourth Order Model

A general circulation model for numerical weather prediction, analysis, and forecast impact experiments, stratospheric analysis, and extended range weather forcasting was developed.

Kalnay, E.

Weather related continuity and completeness on Deep Space Ka-band links: statistics and forecasting

In this paper the concept of link 'stability' as means of measuring the continuity of the link is introduced and through it, along with the distributions of 'good' periods and 'bad' periods, the performance of the proposed Ka-band link design method using both forecasting and long-term statistics has been analyzed. The results indicate that the proposed link design method has relatively good continuity and completeness characteristics even when only long-term statistics are used and that the continuity performance further improves when forecasting is employed. .

weather forcasting

WRSM Operations Concept

The Weather-Related Service Management (WSRM) operations concept is presented. The topics include: 1) X & Ka-band Link Comparison; 2) Justification for WRSM; 3) Operations Concept; and 4) External Interactions.

weather forcasting

Using Microwave Limb Sounder Data to Validate Model Ice Fields

MLS IWC overall tends to be higher relative to ECMWF after considering MLS track sampling and sensitivity (cutoff application). Disagreement tends to be accentuated over Indian and Western Pacific Oceans and over tropical landmasses. Large disagreement occur at upper level at 147 hPa but small at lower levels at 215 and 316 hPa suggesting the need to investigate the strength of model large-scale circulation and physics associated with the IWC formation. Future work includes: Present MMF/ECMWF Comparisons at AGU/Baltimore Session on MMF/Cloud Resolving Modeling, GMAO/GSFC & at the WPac/Bejing/AGU in Tao's Cloud-Radiation Session. Write-up Results on ECMWF/MLS Comparisons for GRL. Continue with MLS vs ECMWF Water Vapor & Temperature comparisons - will seek more interaction with other MLS colleagues. Investigate the Development of Biases in ECMWF Forecasts - i.e. in the actual model. Work with GMAO-5 development team regarding their cloud microphysics performance. Integrate CloudSat into IWC Analyses.

cloud ice

Will We Soon Have a Geostationary Microwave Sounder and What Can We Do with It?

This slide presentation reviews the Geostationary Microwave Sounder (GEO/MW). GEO/MW applications include weather forecasting, hurricane diagnostics, rain, tropospheric wind profiling, and climate research. The presentation also includes information on prototype development, system tests, the notational PATH mission, and data products.

hurricanes

Regional Data Assimilation of AIRS Profiles and Radiances at the SPoRT Center

This slide presentation reviews the Short Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center's mission to improve short-term weather prediction at the regional and local scale. It includes information on the cold bias in Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF), troposphere recordings from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and vertical resolution of analysis grid.

Zavodsky, Brad

The impact of tropical wind data on the analysis and forcasts of the GLA GCM for the global weather experiment

It is well-known that divergent wind estimates are much more dependent upon the analysis system than are estimates of the rotational wind. This conclusion is supported in recent analyses of FGGE SOP1 data produced by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). These analyses differ in the forecast models that are used for the four-dimensional assimilation, in the data rejection criteria, and, to a certain extent, in the data density. Because the final divergent wind is a product of both model constraints and observation, it is relevant to inquire how much of each goes into the final product. We presently investigate this question through a systematic analysis of tropical data that are sampled at different densities by the GLA GCM.

Paegle, Jan