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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Weather responsive smart ventilation system using multiple optimization parameters

A smart ventilation system which uses outdoor temperature and moisture to optimize control of the system. The main principle is to shift ventilation from time periods that have large indoor-outdoor temperature and moisture differences to periods when these differences are smaller, and their energy and comfort impacts are expected to be less. Fan flow rates are reduced when the outside temperature and moisture falls outside of optimum levels, yet overall air exchange is maintained to ensure chronic and acute exposure to pollutants remains relative to best practice. Online weather and smart thermostat data can be used as control inputs, so no specific measurement devices are needed to control ventilation fans.

Parker, Danny↗

Spatial Variations in Crop Growing Seasons Pivotal to Reproduce Global Fluctuations in Maize and Wheat Yields

Testing our understanding of crop yield responses to weather fluctuations at global scale is notoriously hampered by limited information about underlying management conditions, such as cultivar selection or fertilizer application. Here, we demonstrate that accounting for observed spatial variations in growing seasons increases the variance in reported national maize and wheat yield anomalies that can be explained by process-based model simulations from 34 to 58% and 47 to 54% across the 10 most weather-sensitive main producers, respectively. For maize, the increase in explanatory power is similar to the increase achieved by accounting for water stress, as compared to simulations assuming perfect water supply in both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Representing water availability constraints in irrigation is of second-order importance. We improve the model’s explanatory power by better representing crops’ exposure to observed weather conditions, without modifying the weather response itself. This growing season adjustment now allows for a close reproduction of heat wave and drought impacts on crop yields.

Maize↗

A Comprehensive Scheduling Framework using SP-ADMM for Residential Demand Response with Weather and Consumer Uncertainties

This paper presents a comprehensive scheduling framework for residential demand response (DR) programs considering both the day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. In the first stage, residential customers determine the operating status of their responsive devices such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and electric water heaters (EWHs), while the distribution system operator (DSO) computes the amount of electricity to be purchased in the day-ahead electricity market. In the second stage, the DSO purchases insufficient (or sells surplus) electricity in the real-time electricity market to maintain the supply-demand balance. Due to its computational complexity and data privacy issues, the proposed model cannot be directly solved in a centralized manner, especially with a large number of uncertain scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a combination of stochastic programming (SP) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm, called SP-ADMM, to decompose the original model and then solve each sub-problem in a distributed manner while considering multiple uncertain scenarios. The simulation study is performed on the IEEE 33-bus system including 121 residential houses. Here, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for large-scale residential DR applications under weather and consumer uncertainties.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

Zhang, Wei (ORCID:0000000221698749)↗

Optimized Illuminance Operation-A Light-Driven Dilution Strategy to Improve Microalgae Biomass Productivity

Periodic dilution is a necessary operation to avoid light limitation due to self-shading as the culture grows dense. However, environmental conditions are constantly changing in outdoor cultivation systems, making it difficult to determine the optimal dilution rate. To address this challenge, this study evaluated a dilution approach based on light penetration to optimize illuminance (OptiLum) in the culture. Biomass concentration was controlled via sensor-feedback directed dilution to ensure that light reaching the bottom of the culture was maintained above the compensation intensity. Under replicated outdoor pond conditions, by keeping the entire culture within a net-positive photosynthetic zone, the OptiLum operation improved the biomass productivities of two top-performing strains, Picochlorum celeri and Tetraselmis striata, by 95 % and 86 %, respectively, compared to conventional semi-continuous batch cultivation. The dilution rate varied daily and was dynamically adjusted based on the light status within the culture, which is concurrently influenced by weather, culture density, and growth rate. The techno-economic analysis showed that the OptiLum operation could reduce biomass production cost by as much as 24 % and 33 % for P. celeri and T. striata, respectively, assuming a low-cost dewatering approach with initial gravity settling of biomass can be realized for both strains. However, a more costly two-stage dewatering strategy, comprising only membranes and centrifuges, may be necessary for non-settling strains, such as P. celeri, which would alternatively increase production costs by 23 % for the OptiLum case. The results demonstrated that the proposed OptiLum operation is a promising approach to improve biomass productivity and lower production cost via weather-responsive and self-adjusting dilution.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling of Convective Storms Driven by Real-time Analytics

Convective storms vertically transport water vapor and condensate from Earth’s surface to the upper troposphere. Life on Earth is fundamentally linked to this transport which determines the hydrological cycle, and the intensity of severe weather responsible for the destruction of life and property. Despite advances in high-resolution modeling and better observational capabilities, the scientific community continues to be confronted with knowledge gaps about convective storms that limit our predictive capabilities. The ongoing developments in the high-resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), large eddy simulations, and AI-based analytics to evaluate uncertainties are expected to provide a comprehensive framework for new scientific discovery. The model-experiment (MODEX) approach suggests that the aforementioned advancements in model development and AI-based inference techniques should be complemented by similar advancements in the experimental (observational) side so that the former does not outstrip the ability of the latter to provide meaningful constraints. What are the recent advancements in observations that will provide the necessary leap forward in improving our predictive capabilities? To address this question, we propose a new experimental paradigm called Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS) that capitalizes on advancements in communications (5G), computational resources (edge/fog computing), sensor capabilities, and machine learning (ML) and AI techniques (Kollias et al., 2020). The MAAS framework allows for the collection of higher spatiotemporal resolution and quality observations of convective storms than is traditionally possible. The MAAS framework is scalable and applicable to atmospheric observatories such as those operated by the Department of Energy (DoE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗

Weather radar utility in hazard detection and response

Publicly accessible weather radar data have significant capabilities for meteorological measurements and predictions and, further, have the potential to measure nonmeteorological events that include smoke, ash, and debris plumes as well as explosions. The ability to identify and track nonmeteorological events can be of assistance in emergency response, hazard mitigation, and related activities in locations where radar coverage both exists and is recorded and accessible to the user. Here, in this study, events from multiple locations in the United States that are reported in news outlets are assessed using a manual inspection process of Level 2 weather radar data to identify anthropogenic and nonbiological returns. Explosive events are also identified, and a large high-altitude debris cloud from the intentional destruction of the SpaceX Starship is tracked across a wide area. Finally, future efforts using a machine learning model are discussed as a means of automating the process and potentially enabling near-real-time nonmeteorological event identification in the same areas where the data are accessible. Using weather radar data can be a valuable new tool for Department of Defense systems to aid in military awareness, and for interagency emergency response and forensic mission experts to consider national weather service data in their mission profiles. Radar data can be effective in detecting several common types of emergencies and inform and aid response personnel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oxidative degradation in polyethylene: the microscopic properties responsible for macroscopic weathering

Radiation-initiated crosslinking of polyethylene has proven to be an effective method of reducing creep and wear. This has allowed polyethylene to find widespread use in engineering and medical sectors where extreme conditions would otherwise cause it to degrade. However, despite their resilience, irradiated polyethylene products are still vulnerable to oxidative degradation in some long-term applications. A good deal of literature exists to discuss the effects that irradiation and oxidative degradation have on polyethylene’s mechanical properties, but not much literature exists to describe the microscopic properties that make irradiated polyethylene susceptible to this process. This review presents a micro-scale look at polyethylene’s morphology and chemistry, with the intention of describing which characteristics make the material more or less favorable for oxidation. By describing the factors that make irradiated polyethylene vulnerable to oxidation in the first place, the hope is to provide insight on how to mitigate oxidation in future applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The response of numerical weather prediction analysis systems to FGGE 2b data

An intercomparison of analyses of the main PGGE Level IIb data set is presented with three advanced analysis systems. The aims of the work are to estimate the extent and magnitude of the differences between the analyses, to identify the reasons for the differences, and finally to estimate the significance of the differences. Extratropical analyses only are considered. Objective evaluations of analysis quality, such as fit to observations, statistics of analysis differences, and mean fields are discussed. In addition, substantial emphasis is placed on subjective evaluation of a series of case studies that were selected to illustrate the importance of different aspects of the analysis procedures, such as quality control, data selection, resolution, dynamical balance, and the role of the assimilating forecast model. In some cases, the forecast models are used as selective amplifiers of analysis differences to assist in deciding which analysis was more nearly correct in the treatment of particular data.

Hollingsworth, A.↗

The Earth's Exosphere and Its Response to Space Weather

Neutral-Plasma charge exchange is a fundamental physical process that occurs ubiquitously across the universe. In geospace, charge exchange occurs in the Earth’s topside ionosphere, polar wind, plasmasphere, inner magnetosphere, and magnetosheath. Past and current space missions have profiled plasma and electromagnetic characteristics in various parts of the Earth’s magnetospheric system. However, observations of the exosphere, i.e., neutrals above 500 km altitude, are still sparse and, in some regions, non-existent, which limits our understanding of the neutral contribution to the overall dynamics of the geospace environment. Cold exospheric neutrals (< 10 eV) play an important role in the Sun-Earth interaction. Variability of exospheric density provides key information of the Earth’s atmospheric loss under dynamic space environment conditions. Various neutral species and their density variations in the polar wind can alter ion outflow patterns, modifying global magnetospheric dynamics. Exospheric neutrals also provide an energy sink for the inner magnetosphere by creating Energetic Neutral Atoms (ENAs) through charge exchange with high-energy ring current ions, which subsequently leave our geospace system unimpeded by magnetic fields. Exospheric neutrals also provide a means to observe the global interaction of the solar wind – magnetosphere, through global imaging of the system via ENAs (e.g., the TWINS and IMAGE missions) and soft X-rays (e.g., the upcoming LEXI and SMILE missions), the byproducts of neutral-plasma charge exchange. In the coming decade, we advocate that our community needs to increase our exploration of the neutral populations in the outermost reaches of the Earth’s atmosphere. It is imperative that we improve both in-situ and remote-sensing technologies for measuring key neutral species in our exosphere. We also encourage dedicated exosphere missions and to stimulate model developments of our exosphere and its interaction with the co-located magnetospheric system and neighboring Ionosphere - Thermosphere - Mesosphere system.

Hyunju Connor↗

Proposed Use of the NASA Ames Nebula Cloud Computing Platform for Numerical Weather Prediction and the Distribution of High Resolution Satellite Imagery

The development of the Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at NASA Ames Research Center provides an open-source solution for the deployment of scalable computing and storage capabilities relevant to the execution of real-time weather forecasts and the distribution of high resolution satellite data to the operational weather community. Two projects at Marshall Space Flight Center may benefit from use of the Nebula system. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center facilitates the use of unique NASA satellite data and research capabilities in the operational weather community by providing datasets relevant to numerical weather prediction, and satellite data sets useful in weather analysis. SERVIR provides satellite data products for decision support, emphasizing environmental threats such as wildfires, floods, landslides, and other hazards, with interests in numerical weather prediction in support of disaster response. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) has been configured for Nebula cloud computing use via the creation of a disk image and deployment of repeated instances. Given the available infrastructure within Nebula and the "infrastructure as a service" concept, the system appears well-suited for the rapid deployment of additional forecast models over different domains, in response to real-time research applications or disaster response. Future investigations into Nebula capabilities will focus on the development of a web mapping server and load balancing configuration to support the distribution of high resolution satellite data sets to users within the National Weather Service and international partners of SERVIR.

Limaye, Ashutosh S.↗

Weather Satellite Thermal IR Responses Prior to Earthquakes

A number of observers claim to have seen thermal anomalies prior to earthquakes, but subsequent analysis by others has failed to produce similar findings. What exactly are these anomalies? Might they be useful for earthquake prediction? It is the purpose of this study to determine if thermal anomalies can be found in association with known earthquakes by systematically co-registering weather satellite images at the sub-pixel level and then determining if statistically significant responses occurred prior to the earthquake event. A new set of automatic co-registration procedures was developed for this task to accommodate all properties particular to weather satellite observations taken at night, and it relies on the general condition that the ground cools after sunset. Using these procedures, we can produce a set of temperature-sensitive satellite images for each of five selected earthquakes (Algeria 2003; Bhuj, India 2001; Izmit, Turkey 2001; Kunlun Shan, Tibet 2001; Turkmenistan 2000) and thus more effectively investigate heating trends close to the epicenters a few hours prior to the earthquake events. This study will lay tracks for further work in earthquake prediction and provoke the question of the exact nature of the thermal anomalies.

OConnor, Daniel P.↗

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for space shuttle landings. As defined in the Flight Rules (FR), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings, and is required to issue surface average and 10-minute peak wind speed forecasts. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a PC-based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC; Lambert 2003). However, the shuttle occasionally may land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at KSC in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested a similar tool be developed for EAFB.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.

Dreher, Joseph↗